Thursday, March 28, 2024

THE Surf Report

 


Welcome Back!

SURF:

Just when you thought winter was over, it pulls you back in. Got quite a mess this weekend- hope you enjoyed the relative calm this past week. Looks like we have a late season storm headed our way tomorrow and it will bring with it waves, wind, and wet weather. Friday starts off with partly cloudy skies and small conditions. 


By the time Saturday rolls around, we've got S wind and heavy rain while the storm surf picks up throughout the day. Sunday has more W wind, showers, and overhead jumbled NW surf. In summary- a stormy weekend with not much surf until Saturday afternoon for the die hards. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:37 AM sunrise
    • 7:09 PM sunset 
  • Water temps have dropped slightly to the high 50's.
  • And an odd weekend for tides:
    • about 1' at sunrise
    • down to 0' mid-morning
    • and up to 2.5' at sunset
FORECAST:

For next week, the storm exits the region on Monday and we'll leftover head high NW and breezy conditions. Most of next week looks small unfortunately as no real storms are forecasted to generate surf in the northern or southern hemispheres. 


Models though do show more storms off British Columbia late next week which could bring an additional round of showers and NW windswell for next weekend. And charts show the southern hemisphere getting it's act together later next week which could bring us good SW around mid-April. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on X/Twitter.

WEATHER:


Nice weather we're having. Too bad that will end this weekend. As mentioned above, a late season winter storm will bring up to 2" of rain this weekend and maybe 18" of snow to Big Bear (can't complain I guess). Most of next week should be sunny- then more showers next weekend? Who knows. And here's what we have on tap for the next several days:
  • Friday: Partly sunny. Temps 62/50.
  • Saturday: Heavy rain and breezy S winds up to 35 mph. Temps 58/50.
  • Sunday: Showers and... windy with gusts to 25 mph. Temps 59/48.
  • Monday: Transition day with clearing skies and NW wind. Temps 61/48.
  • Tuesday to Thursday: Sunny. Temps high 60's to low 50's
  • And showers again next weekend?...
BEST BET:

Really not much to say other than the rainy/windy days will have storm surf and the sunny cleaner days will be small! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


Did you know there is an artificial reef at San Onofre? Now before you get too excited and start paddling out, the reef lies half a mile offshore and sites in 40' of water. BUT... it is thriving with fish, and more importantly- kelp. Here's the San Diego Union Tribune with more:

An artificial reef built to offset marine life killed by the seawater cooling system at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station is finally doing its job, now that the power plant has been shut down for more than a decade. The reef is essentially an anchor for giant kelp, which grows tall and thick to create the forests of the sea. A form of brown algae, the kelp reaches from the sea floor to the surface, creating a shady tower of shelter for all kinds of fish, spiny lobsters, sea otters, sea lions, sometimes whales and even birds.

Kelp forests provide a habitat for important commercial species of fish such as black rockfish and kelp bass. The slightly slimy ocean vegetable also is used to make a number of human products including shampoo, toothpaste, pharmaceuticals and food. Scientists knew early on that the nuclear power plant’s cooling system would stir up the ocean and degrade nearby kelp beds. They also knew it would vacuum up small fish. However, it took them years of study and collaboration to determine the full effects, design a plan to compensate for that loss, and tailor the plan for the desired results.

The Wheeler North Reef project met its required performance standards for things such as kelp growth and fish production for the first time during the past three years, according to the California Coastal Commission. Now the reef just needs to keep up the good work for an additional 27 years. The nuclear power plant, often called SONGS, shut down in 2013 after defects were found in its replacement steam generators. The commission requires the plant’s operator, Southern California Edison, to assure that the reef continues its contributions to sea life for as long as the plant operated, a total of 32 years. “It’s great to see this work moving forward ... to meet these restoration goals within these habitats,” said Commissioner Justin Cummings at this month’s Coastal Commission meeting.

The reef is named for Wheeler J. North, a marine biologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the California Institute of Technology. North, who died in 2002, was noted for his studies of California’s coastal kelp forests. His namesake reef is north of the power plant, a half-mile offshore and from 38 feet to 50 feet deep, extending 2.5 miles from San Mateo Point to the San Clemente Pier. It’s built entirely of rock mined from a quarry and pushed off a barge into the ocean.


As a result of the reef’s recent success, this month the commission unanimously approved a program to reduce monitoring, which will save the utility time and money. Instead of monitoring a total of 233 locations across the reef, the utility will be required to check only 166 locations beginning this year. “A lot of time and effort went into determining what the reduction would look like,” said Commission Executive Director Kate Huckelbridge. “Time and cost were factors ... but also that we would still have confidence in the results.”

A representative of the Surfrider Foundation said that perhaps it is too soon to scale back oversight. “This reef failed to meet performance standards for over 10 years,” said Mandy Sackett, senior California policy manager for the nonprofit Surfrider Foundation. “As of 2018, it had never met the standing fish stock requirement, despite the plant being in operation for decades,” she said. “We are grateful to see that the recent reef expansion has significantly increased the amount of times that the reef has met performance requirements, yet we feel strongly that the decades of insufficient performance would indicate a need for continued monitoring at the original frequency, at least in regard to fish stock assessments,” Sackett said.

Commission officials said they are confident that the reduced monitoring will be adequate and that it will be returned to former levels if any problems are found. “There is a lot of confidence that the reduced monitoring is going to be adequate to meet the permit conditions,” said Dan Reed, a research biologist at the University of California Santa Barbara’s Marine Research Institute. UC Santa Barbara’s Marine Research Institute is employed as the reef’s independent observer by the Coastal Commission with funding from Edison. Reed has been working on the project since 1993.

Construction of the reef was required by the California Coastal Commission in 1991 to offset the power plant’s effects on the marine environment. The commission also mandated the installation of additional barriers on the plant’s cooling system to reduce the amount of fish killed by the plant’s cooling system and the restoration of 150 acres of Southern California wetlands. Scientists found that as much as 65 tons of small fish and other sea life were killed every year when they were pulled into the cooling system’s 18-foot-wide underwater intakes. The plant used 2.4 billion gallons of seawater daily to cool its steam generators.

Also, when the warm water was returned to the ocean, even though it exited through many holes in a long outlet pipe, the resulting current stirred up sediment and clouded the water. The silt covered and killed marine plants and bottom-dwelling creatures. In its heyday, San Onofre produced electricity consumed across Southern California, including 20 percent of the juice used by San Diego Gas & Electric Co. customers.



SDG&E ratepayers also took on a 20 percent share of the costs of building the power plant, its mitigation projects including the reef and the restoration of the San Dieguito Lagoon in Del Mar, and now the ongoing demolition of the defunct power plant. Another ongoing cost to ratepayers and taxpayers is the expense of storing spent nuclear fuel at San Onofre. All of the fuel used since the 1980s remains on the site, packed into dry casks and parked at the edge of the ocean.

Initially, the Coastal Commission required a 150-acre reef to be built of low-lying boulders in the ocean north of the power plant near San Clemente First, plant operator Southern California Edison built a 23-acre experimental reef and monitored it for five years, Then, based on the results obtained from the experimental reef, Edison completed an additional 152 acres of reef in 2008.

However, the larger reef failed to produce the expected amount of fish, based on estimates of fish populations before the plant was built and compared to two similar natural reefs nearby. As a result, the commission required Edison to build an additional 193 acres, creating what Edison and the State Lands Commission say at a total of 373 acres in all is the largest artificial reef in the world.

Completion of the reef expansion in 2021 finally brought the thriving seaweed beds and fish families that the commission had been seeking for 30 years Divers collect data from specific locations, known as transects, to monitor the reef’s production. That data is compared to data for two natural reefs nearby in the region, but outside the influence of the power plant.

Each transect measures 3 meters wide, 15 meters long, and 1.5 meters up from the bottom. Initially, the transects were marked with cables anchored into the rock, but today divers use GPS coordinates to find them. “We dive a lot,” said Reed, of the Marine Research Institute, in a recent telephone interview. Two boats with six to eight divers visit the reef for about four days a week from the end of May through the end of October every year, he said.


“We basically just count fish and kelp, for the most part,” he said. However, some of the information needed requires the divers to collect the fish, mainly samples of five key species, and take them to a lab to be autopsied. Studies of the samples’ guts, gonads and eggs help determine how much the fish eat and reproduce. A close look at their ears determines age.

“The growth rate can be seen in ear rings, which add a layer of bone each year, much like tree rings,” Reed said. With the information collected the past three years, along with the previous cumulative results, the reef has met its production standards for a total of five years, according to the commission. Now it needs 27 additional years of continued satisfactory marine life production to meet the commission’s requirement.

After the results are achieved, the reef probably will remain in place, Reed said. No further monitoring will be required under Edison’s permit from the commission. “To me, it’s a success,” he said. “We get giant seabass through there ... weighing 400 to 500 pounds, white sharks. It’s a functioning reef.”

The area is completely open to the public, he said. During lobster season, it’s one of the most popular spots for lobster fishing along the Southern California coast. Well beneath the waves, the reef is only affected by the underwater tidal surge and currents. The rocks were placed in an area of relatively shallow sand supported by a hard substrate, so the reef is unlikely to sink into the ocean bottom. Sometimes ocean currents cover small areas with sand, but they also uncover other areas.

Edison does a sonar survey every five years to measure the actual coverage of the reef, Reed said. “It’s really about what it was when we put it in,” he said. “It hasn’t changed much at all.” The revised monitoring program should significantly reduce the time needed for diving and lab work, he said. The team will continue to report the reef’s status annually to the commission.

PIC OF THE WEEK:


Beacons going OFF this morning. Too bad the trail is still closed.

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Cultured
Had A Blast This Year At MTV's Spring Break!
Been Called The Evel Knievel Of Surfing

Thursday, March 21, 2024

THE Surf Report

 


Doesn't Get More Spring Than This.

SURF:

Spring is officially here! All we need now is solid combo swells to really kick off the season. This week wasn't bad though with fun NW and better than expected SW mixing it up. Most NW and SW beaches had rideable surf- along with some odd weather. We're back though to cool temps, coastal low clouds, and maybe some spring showers this weekend (more on that below). For the surf though, we had peaking NW/SW today so Friday will be a touch smaller with sets in the chest high range. For Saturday, the SW will be a shell of its former- which doesn't matter since a storm will be moving into the region. Look for small conditions, gusty SW winds, and rain. 


Sunday has messy overhead NW swell and lingering showers. Long story short- Friday will be clean, Saturday flat and windy, and solid Sunday but windy again. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:46 AM sunrise
    • 7:04 PM sunset 
    • We have more than 12 hours of sun finally! Know why? Spring of course (more on that below in the News of the Week).
  • Unlike 2023, with no strong NW wind (yet), our water temps are a pleasant 62 +/-. Time to put away the 4/3? Jinx!
  •  And tides are starting to fluctuate again this weekend- but not too bad:
    • about 3' at sunrise
    • up to 5' mid-morening
    • down to 0' late afternoon
    • and back up to 3' at sunset
FORECAST:

For next week, Monday is cleaner with leftover NW and head high surf. Tuesday/Wednesday drop to the waist to chest range before our next expected storm rolls through. 


Thursday sees building overhead NW again- but with windy/rainy conditions. Then charts show ANOTHER cold front next weekend? As far as the southern hemisphere goes- nothing of importance- yet. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:


As mentioned above- lots of spring type storms lined up in the near future. Not a ton of rain- but windy and consistent. Look for rain this weekend, rain later next week, and maybe rain again late next weekend. And here's what we have on tap for the next several days:
  • Friday: Partly sunny. Temps 60/50.
  • Saturday/Sunday: Showers/breezy. Temps 58/48.
  • Monday to Wednesday: Sunny. Temps low 60's to low 50's.
  • And long range charts show a chance of showers or rain late in the week and maybe again late next weekend. 
BEST BET:

Friday with smaller but cleaner combo swell. Or Monday with leftover head high NW and cleaner conditions. And later next week is a roll of the dice!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


The Vernal Equinox is here! The Vernal Equinox is here! Hurray!

What the heck is the Vernal Equinox? We'll it's the official start of spring of course, which occurred at 11:06 PM on March 19th with the first full day being March 20th. Every year the earth goes once around the Sun; that is, after all, the definition of a year. The earth spins on its axis, and the axis happens to be tilted about 23.5 degrees relative to earth's orbital plane. As a result, sometimes the northern hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and sometimes the southern hemisphere tilts toward the sun. The change isn't severe, but it is enough to cause the seasons. When the north is tilting toward the sun we generally experience warmer weather in the north. When the south is tilted toward the sun then the southern hemisphere generally experiences the warmer weather. (The actual distance from the earth to the sun is not the cause of the seasons. People in the north sometimes find it hard to believe that during the northern winter, the earth is actually a little closer to the sun than it is during the northern summer.) As the earth revolves around the sun there are two moments (not whole days) of the year when the sun is exactly above the equator. At these times neither pole tilts toward the sun. These moments are called "equinoxes". One occurs in March as the northern hemisphere starts to tilt toward the sun. In the north, that equinox is called the "vernal, or spring equinox", the beginning of spring.


The other, in September, is the autumnal equinox and is the first day of fall (autumn). In the southern hemisphere, the March equinox is autumnal, and the September equinox is vernal. Around the time of either equinox [equal-night] the daylight period of the day is close to the same length of time as the night time period. The term Vernal Equinox has another meaning in astronomy. It refers to the point in the heavens which is the location of the sun at the moment of the northern vernal equinox. This point is useful as an astronomical marker, but because of something called 'precession' it moves very slowly. At one time this point was called the "First Point of Aries", because it was located just over the boundary of the constellation Aries. So what does spring really mean for us? Well we should see the storm track start to lift with storms producing just showers from fast moving fronts- not steady rain (like this weekeend). With the fast moving fronts and lifting storm track, expect less NW groundswells and more WNW windswells (ugh). The southern hemi also starts to kick into gear and the best SW of the seasons will occur. Our El Nino is also waning so expect temps to be cool in the atmosphere and in our waters. So crack a cold one this weekend out of respect for the Vernal Equinox.

And in case you're wondering, here's San Diego sunrises and sunsets during the equinoxes & solstices:
  • Spring: Roughly March 20th: 6:58 AM, 6:58 PM. 12 hours of sunlight and darkness
  • Summer: June 20th: 5:40 AM, 8:00 PM. Almost 14.5 hours of sunlight but only 9.5 hours of darkness.: 12 hours of sunlight and darkness.
  • Winter: December 20th: 6:50 AM, 4:50 PM. Only 10 hours of daylight but 14 hours of darkness.
BEST OF THE BLOG:


SAVE THE DATE(S)! 

As a reminder, the North County Board Meeting will be hob nobbing it at the beautiful Alila Marea Beach Resort in Leucadia next week on March 28th. Looking to network with like minded individuals? Want to give back to your community? Want to learn more about this amazing hotel? Want to talk a little surf over a cold one? Done, done, done and DONE. Come join us at 5:30 PM sharp to get an exclusive behind the scenes look at this highly touted hotel. Don't be late though as you won't be able to find us once we get moving on this sprawling property. Sponsored by our good friend Andrew Becht from Acrisure, meet your fellow surfers to make some new connections, learn about the Alila brand, and finish it off with a bite and refreshments. 

And mark your calendars- our NINTH ANNUAL charity golf tournament is happening FRIDAY, MAY 17TH at... of course it's at Goat Hill. Where else? This year we'll be benefitting Foster the Earth, an organization dedicated to helping vulnerable children and young adults in the foster care system through exposure to the great outdoors. Cost is just $150 to play (and includes lunch from our friends at Senor Grubby's) and hole sponsorships are $250. It's first come, first serve as usual- so hit me up ASAP to reserve your spot (and thank you to everyone that has already reached out to play and sponsorships)!

PIC OF THE WEEK:


It's time to play... "HOW. DID. THEY. DO. THAT?!"

Our first contestant today is a secretive island in the N Atlantic. Look closely at the point in the foreground- you'll notice roughly half a dozen surfers. The million dollar question today is... how did they get out to the line up?! The beach is steep and there's no road, so that's out of the question. They could have walked on the 'beach' but it's full of boulders, so forget that idea. Maybe a boat (but there are none anchored). Which leaves... a paddle from the jetty roughly half a mile away? I guess that wave is worth it. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Masterful
Go Aztecs
World's Foremost Expert In Everything Surf Related

Thursday, March 14, 2024

THE Surf Report

 


Oddball & Foamball.

SURF:

What do you get when you combine weird weather & waves? Oddball & foamball. (It's also a new sitcom I'm pitching to NBC). Low pressure set up shop over the Mojave desert today and as it did, offshore winds kicked in with strong Santa Anas in the OC and more manageable conditions in SD. NW swell peaked last night but there was still fun chest high+ surf most everywhere on Thursday. For the weekend, the NW drops further into the waist high range at best as new small S swell fills in for the OC- most likely waist high+. All in all a small weekend with dying Santa Anas and a few clouds overhead. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:57 AM sunrise
    • 6:58 PM sunset 
    • Let's just say 7 AM and 7 PM for convenience sake.
  • Water temps are still hovering around 60 
  • And tides mellow out this weekend:
    • about 2' at sunrise
    • 0' midday
    • and up to 3' at sunset
FORECAST:

High pressure is in control in the N Pacific AND... the S Pacific really hasn't come to life yet- so not much surf in the near future. 


We do though have small SW mid-week for waist high sets in SD and chest high in the OC. 



For the long range, it looks like our next shot of swells from either the NW or SW will be the week of the 24th. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:


Our weather today was odd and awesome at the same time. Low pressure set up shop in the Mojave Desert and winds turned offshore along the coast (fairly strong actually in the OC, more on that below in News Of The Week), while at the same time it drew in moisture from the Gulf of California. Result was NE winds to groom our surf and cool looking tropical clouds overhead. For the weekend, the tropical clouds increase slightly on Friday while the NE winds back off. And here's what we have on tap for the next week:
  • Friday: Partly cloudy in SD, mostly sunny in the OC, and showers/snow in the mountains. Temps 63/49.
  • Saturday/Sunday: Sunny with an afternoon sea breeze. Temps 65/50.
  • Most of next week: Mostly sunny. Temps 65/53.
  • And long range charts show a chance of showers or rain arriving the week of the 24th...
BEST BET:

Friday with small, leftover NW or a touch of new small SW mid-week. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


As mentioned above, the offshore winds were the story today. Here's some reports across So-Cal:
  • Marshall Peak (San Bernardino Mountains) 87 mph
  • Rancho Cucamonga 81 mph
  • Running Springs (Big Bear) 75 mph
  • Trabuco Canyon 65 mph
  • Huntington Beach 59 mph
  • Fallbrook 53 mph
  • Palm Springs 45 mph
  • Oceanside 34 mph
  • Del Mar 20 mph
  • San Diego- just 17 mph
And I'm guessing we still have a small shot of rain or showers in the next 6 weeks- then we hit May. Any additional precipitation will be icing on the cake to close out our El Nino winter. Here's where we stand season to date for rain:
  • Los Angeles: 16.68" so far. Normal for the ENTIRE season is just 12.23. 
  • Newport Beach: 11.82" so far and normal for the entire season is 11.18".
  • Oceanside: 13.26" so far and normal for the entire season is 11.86".
  • San Diego: 10.40" so far and normal for the entire season is 9.79"
And you've probably heard by now, we're heading towards a La Nina weather pattern again- which NORMALLY results in less rain for us (and colder water and less hurricane surf). BUT... last year's La Nina flipped the theory of less rain on its head. Here's where our rain totals were at this time last year:
  • Los Angeles: 17.30"
  • Newport Beach: 13.38"
  • Oceanside: 13.82"
  • San Diego: 10.74"
Now if we can just do something about that lack of hurricane surf during a La Nina...

BEST OF THE BLOG:


SAVE THE DATE(S)! 

As a reminder, the North County Board Meeting will be hob nobbing it at the beautiful Alila Marea Beach Resort in Leucadia on March 28th. Looking to network with like minded individuals? Want to give back to your community? Want to learn more about this amazing hotel? Want to talk a little surf over a cold one? Done, done, done and DONE. Come join us at 5:30 PM sharp to get an exclusive behind the scenes look at this highly touted hotel. Don't be late though as you won't be able to find us once we get moving on this sprawling property. Sponsored by our good friend Andrew Becht from Acrisure, meet your fellow surfers to make some new connections, learn about the Alila brand, and finish it off with a bite and refreshments. 

And mark your calendars- our NINTH ANNUAL charity golf tournament is happening FRIDAY, MAY 17TH at... of course it's at Goat Hill. Where else? This year we'll be benefitting Foster the Earth, an organization dedicated to helping vulnerable children and young adults in the foster care system through exposure to the great outdoors. Cost is just $150 to play (and includes lunch from our friends at Senor Grubby's) and hole sponsorships are $250. It's first come, first serve as usual- so hit me up ASAP at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:


More El Nino/wintertime/river mouth/sandbar action from the heart of Southern California. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Eye Candy
My Bracket Is Already Busted
Great Great Great Grandfather Glenn Was The 1st Surfer To Get Barreled

Thursday, March 7, 2024

THE Surf Report

 


SURF:

As El Nino wanes and spring is on the horizon just 2 weeks away, we start to turn our attention from the N to the S. Today we had fun NW wind/groundswell and surprisingly clean conditions considering last night's cold front. For Friday, the NW peaks with shoulder high waves early then fades through the day. Saturday looks to be waist high but clean. 


For Sunday, we have small SSW swell filling in for waist high sets and chest high towards the OC. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:06 AM sunrise
    • 5:53 PM sunset 
    • only 2 more weeks until we see 12 hours of sun...
  • Water temps are still hovering around 60 
  • And tides are extreme again this weekend:
    • about 5' at sunrise
    • 6' at breakfast
    • down to -1' mid-afternoon
    • and up to 2' at sunset
FORECAST:


The SSW mentioned above will peak on Monday with more waist to chest high surf as new NW windswell fills in. BUT... that new NW will be generated by a dry cold front moving by to the N of us which will generate WNW winds along our coast- and bumpy conditions. Those swells will peak on Tuesday- with more wind. Wednesday will have leftover NW/SW and cleaner conditions. 




Late in the week, we have more chest high NW windswell (but cleaner conditions) and more chest high SW. Those should last into Saturday. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on X (Twitter)

WEATHER:


Good to see a 'normal' storm around here. Quick and 1/4-12" of rain. For Friday, we'll have a transition day, then high pressure fills in Saturday/Sunday for a great weekend (watch the afternoon sea breeze though on Saturday). On Monday, a weak cold front moves by to the N of us for more clouds and the return of WSW winds. Later in the week, high pressure should set up and we could be back to sunny skies and temps in the low 70's along the coast. And here's what we have on tap for the next week:
  • Friday: Cool and mostly sunny skies. Temps 63/50.
  • Saturday: Sunny with an afternoon sea breeze. Temps 65/50.
  • Sunday: Sunny and cool. Temps 65/51.
  • Monday/Tuesday: Clouds and breezy. Temps 63/52.
  • Wednesday and beyond: More sun, high pressure sets up. Temps near 70 by the weekend.

BEST BET:

Nothing big in the coming days, but fun. 
  • Early Friday with leftover shoulder high NW. 
  • Early Monday with shoulder combo swell. 
  • Late in the week with shoulder high combo swell. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


As you know by now, I'm a fan of wave pools. Now of course these will never replace the experience of battling King Neptune, but they do though have their share of benefits. Like when it's flat with May Gray in San Diego- but you can trunk shoulder high waves Palm Springs while my lady sips Mai Tais poolside. But what about closer to home? Like when it's been flat, overcast, and crowded for weeks with no surf in sight? That's where Ocean Kamp in Oceanside comes in. As mentioned in THE Surf Report a few times (most notably 2 years ago), I would have guessed it should have been open by now. Seems as though it's had a small hiccup- but fear not- it's still on its way. Here's what The Coast News reported recently:

Ocean Kamp, a giant mixed-use housing development set to replace the former swap meet and drive-in movie theater, is progressing steadily even after the recent discovery of human bone fragments at the project site.


In 2022, the project was approved by the Oceanside City Council as a residential-commercial development with up to 700 homes, a 300-key resort, 134,000 square feet of retail and office space, and a 3.5-acre wave lagoon on a 92-acre site at the northeast corner of Foussat Road and state Route 76. According to staff, the project will produce a $3.4 million net surplus to the city’s general fund at build-out, $295 million in one-time economic impacts from construction, generate nearly 1,800 jobs throughout construction, and drive $8.9 million annually in economic activity countywide.

Since the project broke ground, however, neighboring residents have noticed work crews have been frequently absent from the construction site over the last few weeks. According to developer Jon Corn, CEO of O’Side Partnership, crews started mass grading in 2019 to raise the entire site by 10 feet and are now waiting on the city’s permission to begin the second phase of grading. “We have pretty much maxed out this initial grading permit, so we are now working with the city to obtain a phase-two grading permit along with permits to relocate utilities and build roads,” Corn said via email. “Once we have those permits, we will complete grading and install utilities and roads.”


Corn said that the project has not received any stop-work orders or formal delays, but the periodic stops and starts are due to crews bringing in clean fill dirt when it’s available.  During the first phase of grading, crews unearthed shards of Native American artifacts and some human remains.  “The human remains are small bone fragments that, while small, have been treated with respect and dignity under the supervision of Native American monitors,” Corn said. According to Corn, the items were “carefully and meticulously sorted, identified and stored” in cooperation with the local San Luis Rey Band of Mission Indians. “Eventually, all artifacts and remains will be repatriated to the earth according to the customs and practices of the tribe,” Corn said.

Indigenous peoples have inhabited the San Luis Rey River Valley and the areas of present-day Oceanside for thousands of years. This isn’t the first time that a developer has found artifacts and human remains when digging up earth near the riverbed. According to residents of the adjacent Wanis View Estates community, approximately 10 skeletons were found during its construction in the early 2000s. The remains were repatriated on a plot of land that is fenced off from the public near the river in the community and contains a variety of native trees, shrubs and flowers.

Ocean Kamp should be completed in three years, Corn said. (i.e. by the end of 2026).

PIC OF THE WEEK:


The big storms this winter blew out river mouths up and down the CA coast. The result was amazing sandbars and great surf once the weather (and water quality) cooperated. Now that it looks like winter is in the rearview mirror and El Nino is fading, hopefully this won't be it for the rest of the decade. (I'm not crying- you're crying). 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Superb
Really Don't Feel Like Presenting At The Oscars This Sunday
2006 Power Surfing Hall Of Fame Inductee

Thursday, February 29, 2024

THE Surf Report


SURF:


'Tis the time of year we start seeing building SW swells, windy storms, and a bit warmer temps. Spring must be around the corner as evident by the sun this week and fun combo swells. For tomorrow, surf stays tiny as we wait for our next storm. 


Saturday starts to build in the head high range from the NW with a touch of new SW- but things will be a mess as low pressure moves through with wind and rain. On Sunday, the sun emerges but we may have NW wind behind the cold front while the NW swell holds in the head high range. All in all- some surf this weekend- but bumpy. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:13 AM sunrise
    • 5:48 PM sunset 
  • Water temps are hovering around 60 +/-
  • And not much in the way of tides this weekend:
    • about 2' at sunrise
    • drops slightly to 1' mid-morning
    • and up to 4.5' at sunset
FORECAST:

As was the case last winter, high pressure will fill in after our cold storm this weekend, but it will let storms in the near future slide down the coast from the N. As they do, we'll see more windy days and short interval NW swell. 


The beginning of the week looks to be sunny with small dropping NW then we have more suspect conditions by Thursday and an increase in chest high NW windswell. 


We also have a small S swell marching our way- but it will meet the junky conditions later in the week. Further out, we could see more windy NW chest high surf & showers towards late Sunday the 10th. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter

WEATHER:


Quite the storm hitting the Sierras tonight through the weekend- but not much for us. Looks like the peaks around Tahoe could see over 10' of snow (feet- not inches) along with 100 mph+ winds. That storm will weaken as it hits San Diego later Friday into Saturday. Just look for 1/4" of rain by Saturday afternoon and winds around 25 mph from the SW. And here's what we have on tap for the next week:
  • Friday: Cloudy with increasing showers later. Temps 62/54.
  • Saturday: Rainy and windy. Temps 61/52.
  • Sunday: Clearing skies in the afternoon. Temps 60/49.
  • Monday through Wednesday: Clear and cool. Temps 60/48.
  • Thursday: Showers and breezy again?
  • Friday through Sunday: Sunny to start the weekend and showers late on Sunday?
BEST BET:

Not sure if there is a best bet with the weak windy storms moving through. But if I was a betting man...
  • Saturday with stormsurf. 
  • Early Monday with clean conditions and leftover short interval NW and smaller SW groundswell
NEWS OF THE WEEK:


From the 'Say It Ain't So' Department, scientists warn that a crucial ocean current could collapse this century, altering global weather. As if Texas wildfires in winter and tropical storms in southern California weren't enough. Here's what the LA Times had to say:

Scientists are sounding the alarm that a crucial component of the planet's climate system is in gradual decline and could one day reach a tipping point that would radically alter global weather patterns. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is a system of ocean currents that circulate water in the Atlantic Ocean like a conveyor belt, helping to redistribute heat and regulate global and regional climates. New research, however, warns that the AMOC is weakening under a warming climate, and could potentially suffer a dangerous and abrupt collapse with worldwide consequences. 


Considering the AMOC is the workhorse of the Atlantic, the consequences of such a collapse would result in "hugely chaotic changes in global weather patterns" that extend far beyond the Atlantic, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA who was not involved in the study. "It would plunge Europe into essentially a regionalized Ice Age, while leaving the rest of the world on its continued warming path," Swain said. "The Southern Hemisphere would roast, the Pacific storm track would go kind of nuts, and there would be these extreme shifts in weather patterns that are very different from what you would expect from a more incremental or linear warming path."

The odds of such a collapse are low — about 5% or 10% this century, according to some researchers — but the consequences are so great that it would be unwise to ignore the possibility, Swain said. "There's still a [90%] to 95% chance that won't happen, but would you be willing to bet the farm on a [90%] to 95% chance that something like this doesn't happen?" he said. "Would you get on a plane if there were a [90%] to 95% chance that it won't crash? I certainly wouldn't."

The AMOC moves water in the Atlantic Ocean from north to south and back again in a long cycle, but there are indications that it has been weakening over the last century, including a roughly 15% decrease since 1950. The system relies on a delicate balance of warm surface water and cold, salty water that sinks toward the sea floor, which together keep the current churning. But as the planet warms, melting glaciers and ice sheets — such as the Greenland ice sheet — are adding more freshwater to the system, which is diluting its salinity and disrupting traditional patterns. "It's a self-amplifying feedback loop mainly affecting salinity, and the fresher the North Atlantic Ocean becomes, the weaker the AMOC, until you reach a critical value," said René van Westen, the study's lead author. 

The study does not place a time frame on when such a collapse could occur, and Van Westen said such estimates can be controversial. But the paper was the first to demonstrate that the AMOC can reach a tipping point if enough freshwater is added to the system. "It is still heavily debated whether this is a possibility within the 21st century, but we cannot rule it out at the moment," he said. 

The Netherlands' researchers say that models indicate an AMOC collapse is possible, and that such an event would significantly alter the planet's climate. Its effects would be most acute in Europe, where temperatures could decrease up to 18 degrees on average, or even as much as 36 degrees in places such as Norway and Scandinavia. It could also trigger "seesawing" conditions between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Other potential effects include rapidly rising sea levels, with more than 2 feet of sea-level rise possible along some coastal regions, including the Netherlands and the U.S. East Coast. New York City could be inundated by as much as 31 inches of sea-level rise, Van Westen said. 

The Amazon rainforest would see its dry and wet seasons flipped, potentially leading to its own tipping point. (A separate study published this month found that parts of that rainforest could collapse as soon as 2050.)  Effects on the Pacific Ocean and U.S. West Coast would probably be smaller due to their distance from the Atlantic, Van Westen said. However, his models show that an AMOC collapse could result in reduced precipitation and slight cooling in Los Angeles, which would compete with the larger climate change signal toward regional warming.

In fact, the potential future collapse of the AMOC is in some ways a scenario distinct from the climate change effects that are already occurring, said Swain, of UCLA. Currently, climate change is primarily amplifying familiar preexisting patterns and risks, such as worsening wildfires in California, or more extreme downpours and floods."But a collapse of the global overturning circulation really would be different, because it would result in rearrangements of the jet stream, of the storm track, of which places on Earth are really cold relative to other places," he said. 


The jet stream — the river of air that moves storms eastward across the globe — often helps steer atmospheric rivers into California. Such disruptions wouldn't just affect climate and temperature conditions, they would also tear at the fabric of civilization. Agriculture in Europe would probably come to halt, while coastal cities would see major issues from flooding. Building codes and infrastructure would potentially become obsolete as seasonality and precipitation patterns rapidly shift warm places into cool ones, and vice versa. 

"It would mean that all of the climate adaptation that we're working on now would not necessarily be the climate that we would be experiencing," Swain said. Other experts said some of the scenarios outlined in the study are on the extreme end of what's plausible. The model required exceptional amounts of freshwater flow into the Atlantic in order to trigger the tipping point — a quantity equal to about seven Greenland ice sheets — according to Josh Willis, an oceanographer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. 

"It's still possible that the overturning will shut down, and if it does, it'll have big implications," Willis said. "But it's not a meter of sea level right away and 15 degrees Celsius of cooling right away." Still, Willis said the system may be more sensitive than previously understood, and future models and simulations could add to the growing body of work. Other recent studies have also warned of a forthcoming AMOC collapse, and of a potential collapse of the Antarctic Ocean current. 

On the flipside: "It's an interesting study," he said of the latest paper, "and the AMOC could still yet prove to be shut-down-able. But this study is not necessarily conclusive about that. There's still a lot of questions open."  Lynne Talley, a distinguished professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, said similarly that there is a "natural variability" to the AMOC that can include strengthening and weakening on a roughly decadal timescale, and cautioned against conflating recent changes with a long-term trend. 

However, she said the research into its potential collapse is compelling and worthy of consideration."First of all, it is possible.... I wouldn't shy away from saying that," she said. Salinity studies are particularly valuable, she added, because salinity helps govern the density of water in the AMOC. A similar mechanism may have made the AMOC crash at the end of the last glacial period around 14,000 years ago. Back then, a lot of freshwater got swept onto the North Atlantic from the melting of the North American ice sheet, "and that clearly slowed it down and it sort of stopped," Talley said. "I find it completely plausible that it would crash at some point, and the control is salt," she said. "But what year that happens? I don't know."

Such a collapse would probably be irreversible — at least over any sort of timescale relevant to a human life. But there are safeguards for preventing such a collapse from occurring: namely, reducing methane, carbon dioxide and other fossil fuel emissions that are warming the planet, melting ice and releasing more freshwater into the ocean. "That is really the solution to everything," Talley said. "I think we have to safeguard against a lot of things with climate change, and this is one of the big ones for the Northern Hemisphere."

BEST OF THE BLOG:


Mark your calendars! The North County Board Meeting is hob nobbing it this March at the beautiful Alila Marea Beach Resort in Leucadia. Looking to network with like minded individuals? Want to give back to your community? Want to learn more about this amazing hotel? Want to talk a little surf over a cold one? Done, done, done and DONE. Come join us at 5:30 PM sharp on Thursday, March 28th to get an exclusive behind the scenes look at this highly touted hotel. Don't be late though as you won't be able to find us once we get moving on this sprawling property! Sponsored by our good friend Andrew Becht from Acrisure, meet your fellow surfers to make some new connections, learn about the Alila brand, and finish it off with a bite and refreshments. Hit me up with any questions at northcountyboardmeeting.com and we'll see you at the Alila on March 28th!


PIC OF THE WEEK:


Everyone knows about Nazaré and it's potential for 100' surf. But just to the left of the famous point of land sits this stretch of beach. Not as large as it's big brother- but the shorebreak is nothing to sneeze at. Rideable? Yeah, right. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Superhuman Strength
Slave To Fashion
World Famous Small Wave Rider