THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Now I'm worried.

SURF:

Sure the weather's been amazing- but c'mon- it's been 80 for like weeks! And the 'storm' today dropped a whopping 0.10" of rain here in SD. We're only 4 weeks to spring and I'm giving up on El Nino. Not the surf mind you,  just the wet weather. On the bright side, I've probably jinxed myself and we'll get dumped on in March, but until then, enjoy Palm Springs at the beach. Let's do away with all these negative vibes though and talk surf!

New WNW was filling in today and we've got overhead surf on tap tomorrow. The weather will start to clean up too. Maybe some NW winds in the afternoon as the weak cold front clears out, but nothing too serious. On it's heels is a couple more smaller WNW swells to keep us in head high waves all weekend. AND the weather gets warm again. Looking good.

Tides the next few days are about 6' at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.

And with all the warm weather recently, our water has warmed up slightly to 62 degrees (with Scripps Pier hitting 66 this week- Holy Toledo).

FORECAST:
Great weather on tap to start the week and dropping NW swell but still some shoulder high sets towards SD.

By Wednesday morning it's small but the afternoon builds again with a solid W swell. Thursday we've got overhead sets.

And then the models try to over-hype another storm and we could have double overhead surf for the end of the month. Considering how good this winter's been, I wouldn't doubt it. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

The reason I'm worried is that we got all fired up for El Nino this winter only to have November and December start as a dud in the rain department. Then January hit and we got a series of 'El Nino' storms for almost 3" of rain and our hopes up. The rest of January was dry and February got us semi-excited with another inch of rain. Then today's 'storm' hit and we got a lousy 0.10". Now we're really in a hole. Even if we get some good storms in March, it won't be enough to make a serious dent in our drought. On the flip side, it's been great to wear boardies around town all winter. As far as our weather goes this weekend, we're in a transition day tomorrow with clear cool skies. High pressure starts to set up on Saturday and we've got temps in the mid-70's by Sunday. Early next week we're back to 80 at the beach. Models hint at high pressure breaking down by the end of the month with a shot of rain again but for the time being, we've got at least 10 days of summer-like weather.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow will be the biggest day but this weekend will have slightly better weather. Or wait until next Thursday for more great waves/weather.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This day in history is a good snapshot of what a real winter around here should be:

2005: This day marked the start of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which ended on 2/24. This also occurred on 1/13-19/1993, 2/14-20/1980, and 12/22-28/1971.

1993: Heavy rain across the region started on this day and ended on 2/20. One to two inches fell in Carlsbad. Flooding occurred from Oceanside to Encinitas. Homes were damaged along the Mojave River in Hesperia.

1990: Heavy snow that started on 2/16 and ended on this day brought three to four feet of snow to the mountains. 48 inches was recorded at Green Valley and 46 inches at Big Bear Lake. An avalanche at Wrightwood buried ten hikers, injuring one.

1988: Very strong Santa Ana winds started on 2/16 and ended on 2/19. Gusts of 90 mph at Newport Beach and 70+ mph in the San Gabriel Mountain foothills were measured on 2/17. Gusts to 76 mph hit Monument Peak - Mt. Laguna on this day. Gusts to 63 mph hit Ontario on this day and a gust of 50 mph was reported at Rancho Cucamonga on 2/16. Numerous trees and power lines were downed causing power outages near the foothills of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains. On 2/19 in Pauma Valley a mobile home was overturned and shingles were torn off roofs. Fontana schools were closed due to wind damage. Three were killed when a big rig truck overturned and burned, one was killed  having stepped on a downed power line). Power outages hit 200,000 customers in LA and Orange counties. Minor structural damage occurred to signs, etc. Grass fires resulted.

1984: Heavy rain that started on this day and ended on 2/19 caused mud slides in Orange County up to two feet deep. Up to 16 inches of snow fell in the mountains.

1980: Six storms that began on 2/13 hit Southern California continuing on this day. By 2/21, 12.75 inches measured in LA. 30 were killed in widespread floods and mud slides. Roads and hundreds of homes were destroyed or damaged. Mission Valley was completely inundated between Friars Rd. and I-8. Large waves hit coast during this stormy period, causing coastal flooding at Mission Beach, including water over the boardwalk and into houses.

1969: Heavy rain starting on 2/16 ended on 2/26. Up to 30 inches of precipitation fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 13 inches was recorded northwest of Mt. San Jacinto, around ten inches at Banning, less than one inch in eastern Coachella Valley. The death and destruction continued from the previous month. 21 died from flooding and mud slides all over California. An entire family was killed in Mt. Baldy Village when a mud slide hit their home. Extensive damage hit crops, farmland and livestock. Creeks around Yucaipa all left their banks and substantial flooding occurred to residences and businesses. In the upper desert farmlands became lakes and more than 100 homes along the Mojave River were damaged. Roads and bridges recently repaired from previous month’s damage either washed out or were destroyed again

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Now THAT'S what you call a wave horseshoeing. I could just stare at that all day long.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Smooth Operator
Applying For The Supreme Court Justice Opening
Been Called The Goofyfoot Parko