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While there are various reasons the 1913 record is now believed to be an error, the most compelling is how different the observation was to other observing sites in the general area. Because of the unique landscape and meteorology, the daily readings from the various observing sites in that area of the desert Southwest are almost always in lockstep with each other. But during that week in 1913, while other sites were around 8 degrees above normal, the Death Valley readings were 18 degrees above normal. As a result, most extreme weather experts conclude the "real" hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth is 129.2 degrees in 2013, for which there is photographic evidence.
SURF:
Doesn't the July 4th swell seem like 12 months ago? Actually, it was only 12 days.
No swells in the Pacific = no swells for California the past week. Great weather and warm water takes the sting off a little bit.
For the weekend, we've got micro SW swell along with building SMALL NW windswell for maybe chest high sets at the best combo spots by Sunday afternoon. For everyone else, waist high. Did I mention at least the sun is out and the water is 72? As far as the sun/water temps/tides go, here's what you need to know:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:53 AM sunrise
- 7:57 PM sunset
- With the lack of a strong NW wind and plenty of sun, some water temps in SD are hitting the high to mid 70's...
- And the tides are a roller coaster this weekend:
- 1' at sunrise
- 3.5' at breakfast
- 2' early afternoon
- 6' at sunset
FORECAST:
Still nothing of significance on the horizon but we do have a slight rise in the NW windswell Monday/Tuesday. Most beaches should have chest high sets (yahoo)!
After that, forecast charts show a small storm forming this weekend which may give us chest high sets again towards the 25th. Models also show a little activity off Baja this weekend but when I say little, I mean barely a tropical storm AND it's forecasted to head to Hawaii. So write that off. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
Tuesday with a little NW windswell? Or next weekend with a little SW groundswell? Hello? Anyone?
WEATHER:
Slight warm up is on tap this weekend with the clouds burning off earlier each day, plenty of sun, and air temps in the mid to high 70's. Just what I was hoping for. Then we get a slight cooling trend by mid-week with temps back to the low to mid 70's at the beaches and a little more low clouds/fog. Models also show a slight chance of thunderstorms over the mountains/deserts later in the week so head out there if you're looking for a little excitement.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Hot enough for you at the beach recently? 80 degrees on the coast feel a little toasty at night? What would you say then if it was a lot warmer- like almost 50 degrees warmer? Doesn't seem real, does it? Well it is, just 300 miles from us. Welcome to Death Valley, CA! The high temp earlier this week hit an astounding 128 degrees. Now you know why they call it Death Valley. Here's what CBS news had to say:
The official weather observing station in Death Valley, California — called Furnace Creek for obvious reasons — reached a scorching 128 degrees Fahrenheit last Sunday. That is the hottest temperature anywhere on the planet since 2017 and only one degree behind what experts say is likely the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth. This is just one small part of a brutal heat wave that baked the deep Southwest and lower Plains states last weekend before expanding eastward and northward this week. Dozens of records were set over the weekend and dozens more are on the way this week. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories cover 50 million Americans in an area stretching 1,700 miles from the deserts of Southern California to the beaches of Panama City, Florida. Temperatures topped out over 120 in the deserts of California and Arizona, and near 110 in west Texas. Heat index numbers, which factor in humidity, will reach an oppressive 115 near Dallas and east to coastal Louisiana.
As the extreme heat settled in over the weekend various records were set. The most impressive was 128 degrees in Death Valley, California, on Sunday. Though this is the hottest temperature recorded on Earth in the past three years, it did not quite break an all-time record. Extreme weather experts say it is just one degree short of the "real" highest temperature ever recorded on Earth — 129.2 degrees Fahrenheit, also in Death Valley, in 2013. The word "real" is used because the world's hottest temperature is disputed within the meteorological community. Officially the world record is 134 degrees Fahrenheit, set back in 1913 in Death Valley. But a thorough analysis by weather historian Christopher Burt in 2016 makes a compelling and generally accepted claim that the 1913 record is "essentially not possible from a meteorological perspective." Instead he concludes it was likely an observer error.
While there are various reasons the 1913 record is now believed to be an error, the most compelling is how different the observation was to other observing sites in the general area. Because of the unique landscape and meteorology, the daily readings from the various observing sites in that area of the desert Southwest are almost always in lockstep with each other. But during that week in 1913, while other sites were around 8 degrees above normal, the Death Valley readings were 18 degrees above normal. As a result, most extreme weather experts conclude the "real" hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth is 129.2 degrees in 2013, for which there is photographic evidence.
Along with Sunday's Death Valley reading, there were many other daily records broken, as well as one all-time record set of 116 degrees at Borger, Texas, in the panhandle near Amarillo. Other notable daily records include 121 degrees in Palm Springs, California; 116 in Phoenix, Arizona; 113 in Tucson, Arizona; 110 in Roswell, New Mexico; and 109 in Del Rio, Texas. Towns in Wyoming and Utah also hit record highs above 100 degrees. But perhaps the most impressive numbers were the heat index ("feels like") numbers which reached near 120 in Oklahoma and Louisiana. In New Orleans, the heat index in the middle of the night on Sunday was a sweltering 107 degrees. The lowest the temperature dropped to on Monday morning in Phoenix was a balmy 93 degrees. This is the sixth day in a row in which the low temperature was 90 degrees or warmer in Phoenix. The current record is 7 days in a row in 2012 — a record which is likely to be tied and broken in the coming days.
This intense heat is being caused by a near record-breaking mid-level heat dome centered across the southwestern United States. Over the weekend it reached levels which are rarely experienced. These mid-level heat domes cause sunny skies and dry, sinking air which warms the air column through compression, helping produce extraordinary heat. While heat waves of this magnitude are not unheard of in summer, climate experts expect them to become more common in the years ahead due to human-caused climate change. That's because as global temperature averages increase, simple statistics show that heat extremes increase at an even faster rate. This will likely lead to a large increase in heat wave days across much of the nation.
Dr. Renee McPherson, university director of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, says, "Our own projections indicate an additional 10-40 days per year of 100-[degree] days by mid-century, and up to two months more of these extreme heat days each year by the end of the century, if we continue to increase our carbon emissions as we have in the past." In fact, in a middle-of-the-road carbon emissions scenario, which assumes some efforts to limit heat-trapping carbon in the atmosphere, the number of 100-degree days are expected to double, or even triple, in most areas by late this century.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Not the biggest, but sure better than the weekend around here. Did I mention at least the sun is out and the water is 72?
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Senior Advisor
Glamping In My Backyard This Weekend
Brown, Browne, Greenough, MacGillivray/Freeman, Bystrom, McCoy, Miller, Steele, Campbell, Neville, Glenn
