THE Surf Report

 

Hold/Cold Enough For Ya?

SURF:

Has the weather been hot enough for you this week? And how about those ocean temps? Cold enough for you? Talk about polar opposites. 

The surf on the other hand has been tiny, so any desire to paddle out to cool off was negated by the frigid water temps. It looks though we're going turn the corner this weekend. 

We've got a small but fun SW swell filling in tomorrow which will give us chest high sets in northern SD and shoulder high sets in the OC. 

We also have small NW filling in so the swell should be peaky. The NW winds have seem to abated too and we're back to a more southwesterly flow, so water temps should inch up over the weekend- hopefully to 70 by Monday. 

And the tropics have seem to come to life with the potential of Hurricane Javier making an appearance. If that's the case, we could see fun waist to chest high S swell from it in northern SD and slightly bigger in the OC on Monday. No complaints. Well, except for that cold water. But think positive people! And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:25 AM sunrise  
• 7:11 PM sunset  

• Well that sure was quick. 75 degree water last weekend to low 60's this week. As mentioned above though, the strong NW winds seem to have subsided and the hot air temps will work together to bring our water temps back to 70 (hopefully) by the weekend. 

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
• about 3' at sunrise
• just over 5' mid afternoon
• and back to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

The good times keep rolling into the holiday on Monday and beyond. The tropical Javier swell will be peaking on Monday with chest high sets in northern SD and better waves in the OC. 

On it's heels is a good SSW for Tuesday with shoulder high sets in northern SD- and slightly bigger in the OC of course- with a bump from the NW arriving by Wednesday too. 

Next weekend looks small but forecast models show the Pacific kicking back into gear with more good SW and NW around the 13th. For you pro surf fans out there, the World Surf League finals contest window is September 8th through the 16th. My best guess for finals day would be around the 13th/14th with the new good SW swell on the charts. Only fly in the ointment is if the new NW forecasted to arrive at the same time will make it a bit peaky for Lowers. Regardless, there should be enough contestable waves to choose a world champ. 

WEATHER:

If you haven't been outside the past few days, let me warn you, it's warm. The coast has been spared slightly with the cold ocean temps keeping beaches a bit cooler at 80 degrees, but we will warm up to the mid to high 80's as we approach Sunday. We start to cool down slightly each day next week as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific NW and I'm hoping we get back to mid-70's by next weekend. We could even see a return of low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings by mid-week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

This weekend will be fun with SSW on Saturday and maybe Javier swell by Monday- but Tuesday/Wednesday should be the call with slightly bigger combo swells. I'm THIS close to turning on the EBS next week...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Here we are at the peak of summer and our water temperatures feel like the peak of winter. What gives?! There's a few things in play the past few days, but first, let's take a look at what 'normal' water temps look like for the San Diego coastline:

• January = 58 degrees
• February = 57 degrees (coldest water temps of the year)
• March = 58 degrees
• April = 60 degrees
• May = 63 degrees
• June = 65 degrees
• July = 67 degrees
• August = 68 degrees (warmest temps of the year)
• September = 66 degrees
• October = 63 degrees
• November = 61 degrees
• December = 59 degrees

Now with climate change, the temps above are trending slightly warmer and will skew these averages in the coming years. In particular, we've seen plenty of readings in the 70's the past few years in August- if not a few abnormal high 70's. 

But none of that has mattered the past few days as we've had to wear a 3/2 fullsuit in 62 degree water temps. Which is slightly unpleasant when the air temp is 20 degrees warmer. 

So enough of the complaining. What's up with the water being in the low 60's?! A couple things actually:

1. La Nina: We are experiencing the rare 'triple dip' La Nina in which the cyclical weather phenomenon is happening 3 years in a row. What does that mean for us? Less rain than average, colder than normal water temps, less hurricanes, and our winter storm track gets pushed into the Pacific NW. So we have that going for us. 
2. Upwelling: Depending on where high or low pressure sits in relation to Southern California, it will dictate which way the wind blows. With our luck, high pressure has been parked over the Great Basin (i.e. most of Nevada) so we've had a lot of NW winds lately. Why does that matter? Well, basically we face SW so NW winds push the warm water top water away from us and something needs to replace it from below. And that unfortunately is cold water. And if you're wondering, the opposite is good for us: S or SW wind pushes the water into the California Bight- that crescent shape of land between Point Conception to the Mexican Border. As the water pools up, it warms up from the sun and voila! Our water temps warm up. 

So what does that mean for our water temps in the near future?

• High pressure has shifted slightly and the NW winds have stopped along the coast. Yesterday and today saw more SW winds and our water temps are rebounding. Along with the heat wave, we should be back to at least 70 by the holiday.

• How much will it warm up? Well, it is an La Nina year, so don't expect El Nino 80 water temps. (Ps- the last time we saw a few days of 80 degree water temps was August 2018). 
• And August is the peak of our water temps- not September. So theoretically, we should start dropping all the way through February. If the heatwave can stick around the next few days AND the winds continue from the SW, then we MIGHT be back to the low to mid-70's early next week. 

Best case for your next session? Hope you find someone coming out of the water as you're suiting up and ask them how the water feels. No one likes to wear trunks when it's freezing or a 4/3 when it's warm! 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

It's been quite sometime (a couple years probably) since I posted about new businesses opening up here in North County. I figured it was about time since we have the 3 C's coming into town. No, not Cut, Clarity, and Carats (sorry to my iced out friends) but rather Coffee, Cocinas, and Cycles. Find out where you'll be spending your next paycheck, only at The North County Surf Blog!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

How many good right points does California have? I've seriously lost track of the count. Regardless, it's my goal in life to surf every single one of them. Need some help though- can anyone get me onto the Ranches? (Kelly's and Hollister that is). 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
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