Rest stop.
SURF:
One heck of a run of surf lately. Good weather, water temps near 70 degrees, and firing surf from the NW and SW. Seems as though 'ol King Neptune made up for lost time due to last summer's debacle. He's finally taking a rest as the tropics, southern hemisphere, and winds off central California and Aleutians have been quiet the past few days. The result for us today is great weather and pretty small surf.
The winds are starting to blow off central Cal/Pt. Conception/and in our outer waters so we should start to see a bump from the NW by tomorrow through Monday. Not much but south county San Diego should have some chest high sets. The rest of us get waist high+ waves. Water temps have also cooled slightly to the mid-60's due to the weak cold front that blew through Wednesday- but they should rebound again by late this weekend. Pretty much this holiday weekend will be small NW windswell, warm weather, and mild water temps for the groms to rip. Good for lifeguards but a bummer for us. The sea breeze should also return (i.e. 10-15mph W wind vs. the 10mph SW wind we've had the past few weeks). Also, beware the -1' tide at sunrise. We'll also 4' tides at 11am, 2' at 4pm, and 5’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
This is going to hurt, so let me just tell you straight. No beating around the bush. It's better to hear it right away then to drag it on. Ok, here goes. No more stalling. Straight from the horses mouth. Better to hear it from me than 2nd hand. Bad news and good news. Are you sitting down? Don't want you to faint. Without further ado, the bad news: It's going to be flat next week. Ouch. The Pacific took a little breather the past few days so we don't have any swell in the near future to shred. That's the bad news. Good news is that the southern hemisphere has started to wake up and is brewing some storms that should arrive in around 9 days.
I know that's a long way away but it's better than nothing. Keep your fingers crossed the storms hold and we get some head high to overhead surf late next weekend.
WEATHER:
I guess the only bright spot at our beaches the next week is the weather. Had some weird stuff in nor-Cal last week though- a rather unusual late season (or early upcoming winter?) cold front moved through the area and dropped close to an inch of rain in San Fran with temps 20 degrees below normal. All it did for us on Wednesday was kick up our winds a little bit and put a nip in the air while dropping our water temps. We are left with today high pressure building with sunny skies and air temps in the mid 70's. Thanks to the high pressure, it's going to build a little more over the weekend with temps at the beaches near 80 by Sunday. By Tuesday it may draw in some monsoon moisture from the south for those cool lookin' thunderheads over the mountains and deserts. Look for us to have an increase in humidity. Next week looks to be the same with a slight cool down the second half of the week. Long story short- look for an amazing 4th of July weekend.
BEST BET:
The word 'best' to me seems like it corresponds to 'good'. Nothing really good out there unfortunately. But if I had to say what upcoming day is going to be 'best' to get some surf, I guess Sunday. We should have a slight increase in NW windswell, air temps may be 80 at the beaches, and water temps will rebound to high 60's again. Break out the fishes!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
NOAA’s ‘State of the Climate’ report came out last week and 2010 had all sorts of weird stuff going on. From record temps, to El Nino and back to La Nina, warmer than normal ocean waters, etc., mother nature’s head was spinning. Worldwide, 2010 was one of the two warmest years on record. The peer-reviewed report, issued in coordination with the American Meteorological Society, was compiled by 368 scientists from 45 countries. It provides a detailed, yearly update on global climate indicators, notable climate events and other climate information from every continent. This year’s report tracks 41 climate indicators including temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, precipitation, greenhouse gases, humidity, cloud cover, ocean temperature and salinity, sea ice, glaciers, and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets that allow scientists to identify overall trends. While several well-known cyclical weather patterns had a significant influence on weather and climate events throughout the year, the comprehensive analysis of indicators shows a continuation of the long-term trends scientists have seen over the last 50 years, consistent with global climate change.
“We’re continuing to closely track these indicators because it is quite clear that the climate of the past cannot be assumed to represent the climate of the future. These indicators are vital for understanding and making reliable projections of future climate,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Last year was marked by important climate oscillations like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation, which affected regional climates and contributed to many of the world’s significant weather events in 2010. Highlights of some of the climate indicators include:
• Temperature: Three major independent datasets show 2010 as one of the two warmest years since official record-keeping began in the late 19th century. Annual average temperatures in the Arctic continued to rise at about twice the rate of the lower latitudes.
• Sea Ice & Glaciers: Arctic sea ice shrank to the third smallest area on record, and the Greenland ice sheet melted at the highest rate since at least 1958. The Greenland ice sheet melt area was approximately 8 percent more than the previous record set in 2007. Alpine glaciers shrank for the 20th consecutive year. Meanwhile, average sea ice extent in the Antarctic grew to an all-time record maximum in 2010.
• Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level: Even with a moderate-to-strong La Niña in place during the latter half of the year, which is associated with cooler equatorial waters in the tropical Pacific, the 2010 average global sea surface temperature was third warmest on record and sea level continued to rise.
• Ocean Salinity: Oceans were saltier than average in areas of high evaporation and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, suggesting that the water cycle is intensifying.
• Greenhouse Gases: Major greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm, which is more than the average annual increase seen from 1980-2010.
Several major cyclical weather patterns played a key role in weather and climate in 2010:
• El Niño-Southern Oscillation: A strong warm El Niño climate pattern at the beginning of 2010 transitioned to a cool La Niña by July, contributing to some unusual weather patterns around the world and impacting global regions in different ways. Tropical cyclone activity was below normal in nearly all basins around the globe, especially in much of the Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic basin was the exception, with near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Heavy rains led to a record wet spring (September – November) in Australia, ending a decade-long drought.
• Arctic Oscillation: In its negative phase for most of 2010, the Arctic Oscillation affected large parts of the Northern Hemisphere causing frigid arctic air to plunge southward and warm air to surge northward. Canada had its warmest year on record while Britain had its coldest winter at the beginning of the year and coldest December at the end of the year. The Arctic Oscillation reached its most negative value in February, the same month several cities along the U.S. East Coast had their snowiest months ever.
• Southern Annular Mode: An atmospheric pattern related to the strength and persistence of the storm track circling the Southern Hemisphere and the Antarctic led to an all-time maximum in 2010 of average sea ice volume in the Antarctic.
What does this all mean? Expect more unusual weather and ocean conditions in the future.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Speaking of the future, where else can you see the present and the future living in harmony? The North County Surf Blog- that's where. Screw Wimbeldon and the Women's World Cup and root for your country at the ISA World Surfing games. Or see Taj school the kids at Trestles. Or if you want to peer farther into the future, watch Dane, Marzo, Julian and more go loopy on a 7 pack of surf DVD's for only $5.99! Or see Kolohe in year 2048 as he arguably surfed better than anyone has EVER surfed Lowers. Let Scotty beam you up in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
In honor of Taj Burrow making my North County Surf Blog, I thought the Pic of the Week today should be one of his local spots- Gnaraloo. Remember this spot in the old Billabong Desert Challenge video? That grinding sucking triple-up overhead left screamer? The one where Machado, Occy, Slater and the boys kept dropping into ledge after ledge after ledge only to get eaten by the barrel? The place where Pottz broke his shoulder- WHILE PADDLING OUT? The outermost point they call 'Tombstones' for a reason? Doesn't look so menacing in the pic, does it? Go ahead, give it a try...
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Grandiose
Nephew of Uncle Sam
Killed A Bengal Tiger With My Bare Hands At G-Land
