Tease.
SURF:
All kinds of stuff happening the past week in the Pacific but not … really… here. The south Pacific had that bomb of a swell in Tavarua last week, Hurricane Dora off Baja peaked with 155mph winds yesterday, there’s been some windswell off central California- but nothing here. We got a little taste of that Tavi swell on Tuesday (more like a whiff), only limited waist high windswell from up north, and Hurricane Dora isn’t in our window yet (or maybe never- more on that below). Today we just have small background SW/NW for waist high waves around town. Maybe best SW spots in the OC have chest high sets.
And the weather isn’t cooperating either- the low clouds/fog are burning off late this week to give us cool beach temps in the low to mid-70’s. All in all is a pretty uneventful day. Saturday looks to be the same unfortunately. Forecast charts show a slight bump from NW windswell on Saturday but that’s only fun for south SD. Can’t complain- this has been WAAAAY better than last summer- a little more waves, a little more sun, and a lot warmer water. Speaking of water, temps are still holding at 70. Tides the next few days are about 2’ at sunrise, dropping to 1’ at 8am, going up to 5’ at 4pm, then down slightly to 2’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
If you’ve been following my tweets, you’ve probably noticed all the chatter about Hurricane Dora. It was even showing signs of life a week ago- so it’s been a long time brewing. Fortunately it hit a peak of 155mph yesterday afternoon (an intense Category 4 storm). Unfortunately it started to weaken rapidly after that. And double unfortunately (is that good grammar?) it was still under the Baja’s shadow so it’s not in our swell window! Today it’s got winds of 105mph (a 50mph drop in less than 24 hours- not good) and is sputtering further. Best case is that it limps across the ‘finish line’ (i.e. gets out of Baja’s shadow and into our swell window) as a tropical storm by Sunday and sends some 180 straight S our way for MAYBE chest high waves in the OC. It’s almost acting like it’s trying to spite us- trying to die as fast as it can so it won’t have to send us an inheritance (i.e. waves). That sucks! If we do get any shot of small tropical swell, it would be towards Monday. The south Pacific luckily has been working in our favor and has had some storms the past few days. Nothing major, but we should get some head high waves in SD (overhead sets in the OC) by next Thursday. Long story short- just some small conditions to start the work week but better waves toward the weekend.
WEATHER:
We had a good string of weather the past 2 months- no real May Gray or June Gloom to speak of and this past week wasn’t all that bad- even though the low clouds and fog were more extensive in the nights and mornings. This weekend looks to have the same low clouds and fog in the nights/mornings with partial cool sunshine in the afternoon. Not a real hot summer type weekend but it won’t be cool and gloomy thank goodness. Charts show high pressure starting to build again for Monday with warmer beach temps in the high 70’s and a little surge in monsoon moisture for the deserts/mountains. Should be a nice week. Low clouds/fog may return the following weekend.
BEST BET:
Since this weekend will be weak with cool beach temps, it’s a no brainer to say next Friday is the call. We should have nice weather and a fun south to contend with. I don’t know if I can wait that long though…
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So do we or don’t we have global warming?! That is the question scientists, environmentalists, politicians, clergymen, you name it, have been debating the past 30 years. A recent study by NOAA suggests we’re warming, but not as fast thanks to particles high in the atmosphere reflecting sunlight. Fact or fiction? Read on…
“A recent increase in the abundance of particles high in the atmosphere has offset about a third of the current climate warming influence of carbon dioxide (CO2) change during the past decade, according to a new study led by NOAA and published today in the online edition of Science. In the stratosphere, miles above Earth’s surface, small, airborne particles reflect sunlight back into space, which leads to a cooling influence at the ground. These particles are also called “aerosols," and the new paper explores their recent climate effects- the reasons behind their increase remain the subject of ongoing research. “Since the year 2000, stratospheric aerosols have caused a slower rate of climate warming than we would have seen without them,” says John Daniel, a physicist at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRLOCS), and dimethyl sulfide(DMS) are the dominant surface emissions which contribute to aerosol formation. The reasons for the 10-year increase in stratospheric aerosols are not fully understood and are the subject of ongoing research, says coauthor Ryan Neely, with the University of Colorado and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). Likely suspects are natural sources – smaller volcanic eruptions – and/or human activities, which could have emitted the sulfur-containing gases, such as sulfur dioxide, that react in the atmosphere to form reflective aerosol particles. Daniel and colleagues with NOAA, CIRES, the University of Colorado, NASA, and the University of Paris used a climate model to explore how changes in the stratosphere’s aerosol content could affect global climate change – both in the last decade, and projected into the future. The team concluded that models miss an important cooling factor if they don’t account for the influence of stratospheric aerosol, or don’t include recent changes in stratospheric aerosol levels. Moreover, future global temperatures will depend on stratospheric aerosol. The warming from greenhouse gases and aerosols calculated for the coming decade can vary by almost a factor of two — depending on whether aerosols continue to increase at the same rate as over the past decade, or if instead they decrease to very low levels, such as those experienced in 1960. If stratospheric aerosol levels continue to increase, temperatures will not rise as quickly as they would otherwise, said Ellsworth Dutton, also with NOAA ESRL and a co-author on the paper. Conversely, if stratospheric aerosol levels decrease, temperatures would increase faster. Dutton and his colleagues use the term “persistently variable” to describe how the background levels of aerosol in Earth’s stratosphere can change from one decade to the next, even in the absence of major volcanic activity. Ultimately, by incorporating the ups and downs of stratospheric aerosols, climate models will be able to give not only better estimates of future climate change, but also better explanations of past climate changes. “The ‘background’ stratospheric aerosols are more of a player than we thought,” said Daniel. “The last decade has shown us that it doesn’t take an extremely large volcanic eruption for these aerosols to be important to climate.”
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Why wait all week for an in depth wave/weather forecast? Check out the blog every Tuesday (or Wednesday if I’m feeling lazy) to see what the future holds. Or if you’re just a Kelly Slater fan, check out the cheap Channel Islands deals on the blog this week or what the rest of the tour is griping about since King Kelly bailed on the J-Bay contest. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
For years I’ve scoured the earth to find the most exotic waves in far off locales and bring them to THE Surf Report. But we have some pretty good waves in the good ol’ U.S. of A. too. Take for instance Laniakea on the north shore of Oahu. An amazing wave that is forgotten amongst the glamour spots known as Pipe, Sunset, and Waimea. Of course the guys who posted this shot are Aussies- the beloved Australian Surfing Life magazine. Oh well. To see more slices of heaven, check out the link here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Auspicious
Cocktail Waiter
Got Lil’ Barrels With Midget Yesterday
