Just quite not there yet.
SURF:
Another fantastic day outside but the surf isn't doing much. Had some fun SW earlier in the week with shoulder high waves towards the OC but not much today.
FORECAST:
Had a little storm stir up some SW swell earlier this week and it's headed our way for late Sunday. It wasn't big but charts show it lasting for a few days. Should get some chest high sets in north county SD and shoulder high sets again in the OC. After that the it gets small the 2nd half of next week as the north and south Pacific aren't that active. Again. On a side note, Tropical Storm Lorena is belting Cabo today with 40mph winds/rain and we won't get any surf from her. So that's that.
WEATHER:
Typical early September weather- highs near 80 at the beaches and tropical clouds overhead. Now if the water would only cooperate and be closer to 75, I might be able to squint real hard and pretend it was Hawaii around here. Looks like we get a return of low clouds/fog this weekend and some slightly cooler temps but it still will be nice at the coast. High pressure builds again the 2nd half of next week for slightly higher temps at the beaches again and less low clouds/fog with a continuation of the tropical clouds.
BEST BET:
Monday with the new little SW swell. After that, looking pretty small.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The San Diego Union Tribune reported last week that scientists found San Diego Bay could suffer upwards of $300 million in damage if a huge earthquake erupts off Alaska and sends a tsunami to Southern California. The report was from a new study that models a shaker similar to the one that struck Japan in 2011.
Federal and state researchers came up with a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that produces a tsunami severe enough to force the evacuation of 750,000 people along the California coast while sinking or damaging one-third of all boats in the state's marinas. Such a tsunami could cause $1.2 billion in damages and down time at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, but it would not affect the nuclear reactors at San Onofre or Diablo Canyon, the report says.
The study was released Wednesday to help coastal towns and cities refine their plans for evacuating beaches and minimizing damage, which in the case of San Diego Bay would mostly be caused by strong and lasting currents that would surge through the narrow entrance of the harbor. The 6-8 knot currents would rip docks, flood buildings, swamp boats and stress Navy warships. The report also says the tsunami would produce waves up to 6-feet high locally, inundating and damaging some areas, including the San Dieguito lagoon.
"If a tsunami occurs, evacuation orders won't come from NOAA or from the state. They'll come from local communities," said seismologist Lucile Jones, a risk reduction expert for the U.S. Geological Survey. "We want to help emergency planners in places like San Diego be prepared.
"The good news is that three-quarters of California’s coastline is cliffs, and thus immune to the harsher and more devastating impacts tsunamis could pose. “The bad news is that the one-quarter at risk is some of the most economically valuable property in California.”
Scientists will detail the results of the study during public hearings, including one that will be hosted Friday by the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services. The city already has comprehensive plans for evacuating people in low-lying areas in the event of a tsunami.
The new report is the latest in a series of studies that use scientific models to estimate the potential impact of natural disasters. Five years ago, state and federal researchers analyzed how much death and destruction might result from a 7.8 quake on the southern San Andreas fault. The study led to the Great California Shakeout, an annual earthquake drill. Scientists also produced ArkStorm, a 2011 study of how a winter "superstorm' could affect California.
The state has not been hit by the sort of tsunami that occurred off Japan following a 9.0 quake in March 2011. But California has felt the impact of such events. The 9.2 earthquake that broke in Alaska in 1964 created a tsunami that killed 11 people in Crescent City, California, and destroyed most of the city's business district. Crescent City was slammed again in March 2011 when a tsunami from the Japan quake produced 8-foot waves that heavily damaged the city's harbor.
The new study involves a hypothetical earthquake that occurs off the coast of Alaska, near Kodiak Island, on March 27, 2014 -- the 50th anniversary of the Alaskan quake. The report says the quake would produce a tsunami whose energy would reach Northern California in about four hours, producing waves up to 21-feet high. Just under two hours later, the tsunami would reach San Diego County, generating waves in the 6-foot range and producing 6-8 knot currents in San Diego Bay, which has a narrow channel that leads to the sea.
The report says, "In most cases, the largest waves arrive several hours -- sometimes more than 7 hours -- after the initial one, especially in Southern California (where) the tsunami waves attenuate slowly in time ... The tsunami would generate strong, unpredictable currents in the ocean close to shore, causing significant damage in harbors and bays."
Jones said, San Diego Bay "wouldn't be affected so much by inundation as the reverberation of waves and the strength of the currents. Boats and ships might not be able to get out to sea, and the currents could affect the docks and marinas."
The report says, "The Port of San Diego operates two marine terminals, neither of which would be inundated by the tsunami. They would be expected to have minimal damage. However, there are a large number of Navy piers that may be flooded and vessels may be present. Navy procedures typically call for vessels to leave port if possible. Remaining vessels may have some damage to the mooring components due to the water level fluctuation and/or high currents. Supplies on piers may be floated off causing debris issues. The major issue within the Port of San Diego area is the numerous small craft basins that will likely sustain significant damage due to the high currents and lesser design criteria compared to commercial and naval facilities. For example, strong currents damaged docks and boats around Shelter Island during the 2011 Tohoku and 2010 Chile tsunami."
The report notes that tsunamis like that one in the scenario "occur, on average, on the order of hundreds of years ... California's experience with tsunamis over the last century is probably far from the worst that could happen. A tsunami generated by the scenario would be bigger and cause much more damage in California than the 2011 (Japan) tsunami, the Chilean tsunamis of 2010, 1960, and 1922, and the Alaskan-Aleutians tsunamis of 1964 and 1946.
"Thus, there is strong reason to believe that California faces a tsunami threat that could realistically cause billions of dollars in losses and, although we have not discussed it here, substantial loss of life."
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Encinitas' own Bermuda Triangle is now in place: The new Rip Curl Shop, the new walkway under the train tracks at Swamis, and now the new 'pocket park' being built at the corner of K Street and Highway 101. Check out the full story on the North County Surf blog. All of that and more, plus the mid-week Surf Check and an in depth THE Surf Report in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
You've heard the old saying about the barrels at Pipeline: 'Big enough to drive a Mac Truck through'. Well this barrel at an undisclosed location is big enough to drive a jumbo jet through.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Mentor
Wannabe Lotto Winner
Moving to Tempe to be Closer to Big Surf
