Come and get it.
SURF:
The week started off right with leftover hurricane Eugene swell with small NW windswell making shoulder high peaks at the best combo spots. The sun was even out too. Then everything started to turn for the worse as the swells dropped off and June Gloom made a surprise visit to August. Luckily we had a new small SW show up yesterday and it’s peaking today with better weather this afternoon. Most spots in north county SD are chest high with shoulder high+ sets the closer you get to the OC. Look for that swell to hold into tomorrow morning then back off slightly on Sunday. Looks like the nice weather may hold this weekend so get it while you can. Should be a fun summer weekend of waves and weather. We’ve also had SW winds blowing the past week so our water temps have warmed up about 1 degree every day- from 60 degrees last Friday to 67 today. That trend should continue and I’m hoping we finally hit 70 again this weekend. Along with the sun coming out earlier every day, it may be time to wear trunks again. It is summer, isn’t it? Tides the next few days are 1’ at sunrise, 5’ at 10am, back to 1’ at 4pm, and up to 4’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf! FORECAST:
After a little weekend of waves, we get a slight bump again out of the SW towards Monday. Nothing big again but it should give us chest high sets in the OC/SD. Tuesday should hold and yet another small bump arrives mid-week from the SW that will last into Thursday. Kind of a funny upcoming week- nothing good nothing bad but we’ll have rideable waves most every day. The weather unfortunately won’t cooperate (more on that below) but considering last summer had bad weather AND no waves, I have no complaints.WEATHER:
BEST BET:
Good weather on tap today and tomorrow along with some fun SW swell so I’m placing my bet on today with tomorrow a close second. Next week should have some waves too of course but the low clouds may hang around a bit longer at the beaches during the day unfortunately…NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Even though THE Surf Report is primarily based on SD/OC waves and weather, I don’t mind giving a shout out to the east coast when they have some good news. Like the current hurricane season out there. NOAA updated their hurricane forecast last week to say it’s going to be more active than originally forecasted. Now the downside of course is the potential for structural damage along the coast with all these storms- but if the storms send some waves AND stay offshore- then I don’t think there’s any complaints from the east coast surfing contingent. Here’s the official statement: “The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.” Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season. Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:
-14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
-7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: -3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. All eyes this week are on Emily, which continues to develop and move towards the United States. The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Last year saw above-normal hurricane activity, but none made landfall in the United States. August through October are peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and FEMA urges people not to be lured into a false sense of security by the lack of hurricanes so far this year. "It is still early in this hurricane season and we know it can take only one storm to devastate communities and families," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Rich Serino. "Many disasters come without warning, but that’s not the case with hurricanes. This is hurricane season, if you haven't already, now is the time to take a few simple steps to get you and your family prepared. Anyone can visit www.ready.gov to learn more." Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.
Considering there are 4 areas of disturbances out in the Atlantic right now, looks like Mendia, Kech, Lopez, Ceej, Hines, Hammer, and the boys are going to get pitted this August!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Keeping you entertained since ’10. Not that long ago of course, but all kinds of stuff on the site this week. Like boardshorts for under $25 (and I’m not talking Old Navy crap here either). We’re talking Quik, Billy, DC, Analog, and Rusty. Bam! And if you want to hone your ripping skills, check out the clips from Alejo, Julian, and Kolohe. It will make you feel old real fast. Or just check up on the surf. All of those goodies in the blog below!PIC OF THE WEEK:
One of my all-time favorite waves- that I haven’t ridden yet but it’s on my bucket list- is Mundaka. What’s there not to like? It’s a goofy footer’s paradise- long gurgling double up sandbar barrels. The Basque countryside. Spanish food. Sure the paddle against the current is hellish and don’t even get me started on the crowds or lack of consistent surf. But to get just one of those deep tubes- it makes the $1,000 airfare, drop-ins, and $300 a night hotel rooms worth it. For more worldly pics, check out Casikp blog.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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