It's the calm before the storm. Literally. We've got small SW in the water today for inconsistent waist high sets in far north county and clean cloudy conditions. Then the surf pulls a 180 and comes from the W tonight then NW over the weekend with showers off and on.
In the short term though, look for high tide conditions this morning and pretty much flat surf around town. Winds are light and variable this morning but may switch to the SW tonight from the first weak cold front.
High tide was 6' at 8am this morning, dropping quickly to -1' after 3pm today, and up slightly to 0' at sunset. The quick tide swings will make for some tricky conditions with the upcoming solid surf and showers. All 3 elements will make choosing a good surf session a tough one the next few days.
But let's talk about the good news first. You've probably heard by now we have a solid W swell showing up tomorrow. It's being generated by a big storm off northern California today. Winds in San Francisco are actually forecasted to be 50 mph with higher gusts. They will also get a few inches of rain. A real mess up there. In southern California though, we'll get the tail end of the storm and the first weak cold front will come through tonight. We should get 1/4" of rain and some light south winds. By tomorrow morning, we're should see some head high surf with overhead sets and bigger by sundown. Should be a good swell- if the rain showers don't mess it up too much. It will also be interesting to see the straight W swell and what spots around town will hold their shape- usually we get SW or NW swells so something in-between these swell angles (i.e. W) will be unique. Looks like the solid W swell will peak late Thursday but the storm up north isn't going anywhere anytime soon- so we should have solid overhead surf lasting through Saturday- while the angle of the surf turns more NW. Looks like we get a little dip in the surf heights late Sunday/early Monday but there still should be shoulder high waves. Then another quick reinforcement shows up for head high sets Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The only fly in the ointment is what that big storm up north is going to do to our weather down here. Right now models show it staying to our north while it shoots weak cold fronts our way. If that's the case, we'll get some light rain down here tonight and into Thursday, a slight break Friday, then light showers off and on Saturday/Sunday. If that's the case, it won't mess up our solid surf that much. If the storm doesn't behave as forecasted though and heads our way slightly, we may get more south winds than anticipated and a little more rain. I'm thinking though the storm will behave and our solid surf won't be that jumbled from the wind.
As far as the southern hemisphere goes, it's pretty quiet down there. We have a little storm forecasted to spin this weekend but it's not looking like a good swell maker. If it does come together though, we may have a waist high+ SW for next weekend the 8th.
Long story short- look for big surf late Thursday, dropping slightly but still solid through Saturday, and then a little bump late Monday. Just keep an eye on the sky for S winds/showers. Looks like solid swell though for the next 6 days. Stoke!
