SURF:
Absolutely gorgeous week we just had at the beach- but no surf. High pressure was in control and kept the storms at bay. Good news is that high pressure is breaking down and letting the storms get closer to us but the great weather is history. I guess you can't have your cake and eat it too (how many times have I said that)? Looks like we get a little bump from the NW on Saturday for chest high surf around town and that holds into Sunday. All in all a little NW this weekend and some showers on Saturday. Better than nothing I guess.
FORECAST:
After a fairly mild weekend of surf, we get a boost from the NW on Monday that looks to have more chest high+ waves in north county SD and head high sets in SD.
WEATHER:
After having 80 degree readings at the beaches earlier this week, we got a pretty good cloud cover today and some sprinkles tonight. Look for the clouds to hang around tomorrow and increase a little on Saturday for a chance of showers. The storm track should lift towards Monday and good weather is forecasted for the 2nd half of the week- perfect timing for Thanksgiving.
BEST BET:
Maybe Thursday/Friday of next week as the weather should clear up, we get a new SW on Thursday and a NW on Friday. 4 day weekend anyone?
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
El Nino we hardly knew ye. There were signs last spring of the equatorial Pacific starting to show El Nino type symptoms and if everything came together this fall, we'd have a full blown El Nino this winter- the first in a LONG time. And we could use some big surf and storms around here. Well as luck would have it, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated their latest El Nino report and the synopsis is: Neutral conditions are favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13. Meaning: Forget El Nino this winter. Here's the official report from NOAA:
During October 2012, the Pacific Ocean continued to reflect borderline neutral/weak El Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the Pacific Ocean during the latter half of the month which was also reflected an El Nino forming. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also increased slightly in association with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. While the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean has recently warmed, the tropical atmosphere remained largely consistent with neutral (non-El Nino) conditions. Upper-level and lower-level winds were near average, and the strength of anomalous convection decreased over the past month. Thus, the atmosphere and ocean continue to indicate borderline neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.
Relative to last month, the SST model predictions started strongly favor neutral conditions, although remaining above-average in the Northern Hemisphere for winter 2012-13. While the tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Niño at times, it is now considered less likely that an El Niño will develop. Therefore, the previous El Niño watch has been discontinued as the chance of El Niño has decreased (i.e. Bummer). While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña, cannot be ruled out during the next few months, neutral conditions are now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13.
Long story short- don't look for consistent bombing surf, heavy rain, or the Huntington Beach Pier falling into the ocean this winter.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
The North County Surf Blog has got brand new boards on sale this week. And I'm not talking about just any boards- boards made famous by Curren, Occy, MR, and Tom Carroll (i.e. Channel Islands, Rusty, MR, and Byrne for all of you under 30). And of course a mid-week Surf Check and an in depth THE Surf Report - all of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
VP of Something Or Other
Nailed My Interview For The CIA Director Position
Rehabilitating The Wounded Gull
