Wicked.
SURF:
What a mess out there today. Fun clean surf earlier this week has been replaced by a wet and wild Friday. Currently we have wind blowing 15mph from the W as a storm bares down on us today. If you have to surf...
FORECAST:
After the storm blows through this weekend, we have leftover NW swell for shoulder high sets early in the week and clean conditions. There was also a little storm in the southern hemisphere a few days ago that will give the OC some waist high+ surf towards Tuesday.
WEATHER:
Got a wooly one today. The storm above us isn't one conitinous wall of water but rather a bunch of clustered thunderstorms- so look for heavy downpours off and on today with a chance of hail/thunder/lightening/waterspouts. If I were you- I wouldn't surf today- and I'm not talking about the junky conditions or dirty water- I'm talking about the threat of lightening and water spouts! We get clearing weather tomorrow and it looks clear and crisp on Sunday. Early next week things start to warm up under sunny skies and temps in the low to mid-60's.
BEST BET:
If the storm cleans up quickly, then maybe Sunday morning with jumbled NW surf and clean conditions. Or maybe play it safe and just wait until Monday when everyone goes back to work and school!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Even though this winter’s El Nino turned out to be a false alarm, NOAA researchers yesterday announced they have new ways to identify which El Niño events will have the biggest impact on U.S. winter weather.
El Niño, warmer than average waters in the Eastern equatorial Pacific, affects weather around the world. A new study, just published in the February 2013 issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Weather forecasters have long known that El Niño events can throw seasonal climate patterns off kilter, particularly during winter months. Now, new research from NOAA and the University of Washington suggests that a different way to detect El Niño could help forecasters predict the unusual weather it causes. A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper. “When it comes to El Niño’s weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill,” said Harrison. “Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies.” Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather. They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said. “By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible,” Harrison said. El Niño refers to a warming of waters along the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on the atmosphere, El Niño shifts tropical rainfall patterns which causes further shifts in weather around the globe, including milder winters in western Canada and parts of the northern United States and wetter winters in the some southern states. Industry sectors from energy and construction to transportation and tourism are keenly interested in how El Niño will affect their costs. El Niño-influenced weather can affect fuel oil demand, travel delays, and retail sales. Better accuracy in El Niño predictions could help industry to prepare for its impacts more efficiently.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
One of the first jobs I ever had was at mom and pop surf shop in Corona del Mar (called 'Corona del Mar Beach Club' for you old timers out there). Packed full of groms, an actual 'Pop' who worked behind the counter, and a local pro to sell the boards, I learned more there about surfing in 2 years than I have the last 25. So it's with sadness that I say local north county surf shop K5 is closing it's doors this month after 25 years of business. Make sure to stop by this weekend to show some love. The North County Surf blog also has some more happenings in the local business scene so check out the details on the blog and of course a mid-week Surf Check AND an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Not too big, not too small, but just a little peak in a tropical locale and no one out. Print this pic, keep it in your pocket, and pull it out this weekend when you go check out the blown stormy conditions and remember there's a little spot out there in the world with your name on it.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Like Nothing Else
Former Member of 'N Sync
Just Signed With Catchit!
