Friday, May 10, 2013

THE Surf Report


Are we there yet?

SURF:

No real surf to speak of the past few days. Today is no different as there is no NW or SW in the water. Well there is actually but it's about 1' swell for both. So we're left with tiny waves and high tide this morning.
Saturday isn't much better as charts show just a tiny blip out of the NW in the morning. South SD county may have some waist high sets.
By Sunday, there's a tiny blip on the radar from the SW and the OC may have some chest high sets. All in all small surf this weekend and nice weather.
Tides the next few days are 0' at sunrise, about 4' before lunch, down to 1' at 4pm, and about 4' at sunset. Water temps are holding at 64 degrees. Time for a springsuit finally?! Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a small weekend of surf but nice weather, Monday continues to be the same with just small SW swell. By Tuesday our weather starts to break down slightly for more low clouds and fog but the NW windswell picks up. SD county should have some chest high sets. North OC that can pick up a little NW windswell and background SW swell may have a couple little combo waves. Then we go quiet for a few days.
Charts though show some good activity in the southern hemisphere today and it looks like a solid SW swell is headed our way for next weekend. Originally the models had this storm looking like a beast but have since backed off. We still though should have head high waves in SD county and overhead surf in the OC.
The storm kept churning along and we'll get a 2nd bump from it around the 20th.
And right on it's heels a new storm formed- not as big- but we should get more SW towards the 22nd. In a nutshell- not much surf for us around here until next weekend.

WEATHER:

Wild weather this past week. We were supposed to have a weak low pressure roll through on Monday but it lingered around a few days and dumped some good showers around southern California. Things have finally cleared up and we've got great weather on tap this weekend. Just night and morning low clouds followed by temps near 70 at the beaches. Saturday hits the low 70's and Sunday the mid 70's. By Monday we're close to 80. Weak low pressure breaks down our temps a bit the middle of next week but we'll still be close to 70.

BEST BET:
Looks like next weekend with a few good SW swells headed our way.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The world’s getting warmer says the data. Either due to Global Warming or just the natural cycle of climatology meaning we’re on the opposite end of an ice age. Whatever your view, here’s some recent data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to chew on:

Global Highlights
•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for March 2013 tied with 2006 as the 10th warmest on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average of 12.3°C (54.1°F).
•The global land surface temperature was 1.06°C (1.91°F) above the 20th century average of 5.0°C (40.8°F), the 11th warmest March on record. For the ocean, the March global sea surface temperature was 0.41°C (0.74°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.7°F), making it the ninth warmest March on record.
•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–March period (year-to-date) was 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average of 12.3°C (54.1°F), the eighth warmest such period on record.

Land Temperatures:
The globally-averaged temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces was 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F), tying with 2006 as the 10th warmest March since records began in 1880. Both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres were also 10th warmest for March. Globally, land surface temperatures were 1.06°C (1.91°F) above average (11th warmest on record), but there were some marked temperature anomaly differences around the world. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), a large-scale climate pattern that can influence temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, was strongly negative during the month, and in fact reached a monthly-averaged record low for March. This negative phase was associated with frigid Arctic air spilling southward into the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes. Particularly, it was either cooler or much cooler than average across the eastern half of the United States as well as most of Europe, European Russia, and northern Siberia. Overall, the 20°N–20°S global tropical latitude belt was the third warmest on record for that region during March, at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above average. Most of northern Africa, along with northern South America and northern Australia, were also much warmer than average. In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina observed temperatures that were cooler to much cooler than average.

Select national information is highlighted below:
•Above-average temperatures continued for Australia during March. The monthly nationally-averaged maximum temperature was 0.66°C (1.18°F) above the 1961–1990 average. For the eighth month in a row (since August 2012), every state and territory across the country had an above-average monthly maximum temperature. The nationally-averaged March minimum temperature was 0.82°C (1.47°F) above average, with Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia, and the Northern Territory observing their top 10 warmest Marches on record.
•High pressure systems brought above-average March temperatures to most of New Zealand. The nationally-averaged March temperature was 0.9°C (1.6°F) above the 1971–2010 average, with temperatures more than 1.2°C (2.2°F) above average across northern and central areas of the North Island and southern and western parts of the South Island.
•The UK experienced its coldest March since 1962 (tied for second coldest since records began in 1910), with the average temperature 3.3°C (5.9°F) below the 1981–2010 average. It was also the coolest of any month since December 2010. No region was warmer than average for the the month.
•March was generally warmer than average across Japan. Eastern and western Japan, along with Okinawa and Amami, had temperatures that were "significantly above normal", according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Ocean Temperatures:
The global ocean temperature was among the ten warmest for March, ranking ninth in the 134-year period of record at 0.41°C (0.74°F) above the 20th century average. Across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present during March, with sea surface temperatures slightly above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, neutral conditions are favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013. Associated with a persistent negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, temperatures were cooler than average across the northeastern Pacific Ocean. With ENSO-neutral conditions holding during the first three months of 2013, the January–March global temperature across land and ocean surfaces was the eighth warmest on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average. The global land temperature ranked seventh warmest, with the Southern Hemisphere observing its second warmest such period, behind 2010, and the Northern Hemisphere having its 12th warmest January–March temperature over land on record. The global ocean temperature was eighth warmest for January–March, with a large section of the Indian Ocean south of Australia having record warmth.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Considering how small it's been the past few days, maybe it's time to think of some alternatives to surfing. No, I don't mean actually giving up surfing; that would be stupid! I mean creating your own waves. Since Kelly Slater and Greg Webber's wavepools look to be a pipedream, it's back to the basics- freeboarding and wakesurfing. Check out the footage on the North County Surf Blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check AND an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

You know what spring time means- the water is warming up, southern hemi swells are marching up the coast, and it's time to get a cheap fair on Alaska Airlines down to Cabo. Don't trunks, a cold Pacifico, and some empty head high rights sound good right about now? I'm booking a room at Palmilla as we speak.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
John Glenn's 9th Cousin
Last Member Creed Fan Club
Training in Tahiti With Poto and Spartan