I can see it just over the horizon...
SURF:
Beautiful weather to start the week and just little SW/NW pulses. Then the early morning/late night low clouds came back and brought with it a little more NW windswell on Wednesday. Today the clouds are still hanging around but the there's not much surf to speak of. Fear not! Waves are coming this weekend.
FORECAST:
Once Sunday kicks in with good weather and a fun NW/SW combo, the train keeps a rolling into Monday. There was a reinforcement storm in south America last week that will continue to send us good head high SW sets through the week- mostly pulses late Monday and again towards Friday.
After that the north and south Pacific take a breather.
WEATHER:
Got another weak cold front coming through the state today which will thicken our low clouds and leave behind drizzle. May Gray at it's finest. Saturday is a transition day as it will be cool around here and hopefully some sun by late afternoon. High pressure kicks in Sunday and we have great weather through at least Tuesday and temps in the high 60's at the beaches. Yet another weak cold front is forecasted to roll through the state the 2nd half of next week and we'll be back to clouds and drizzle.
BEST BET:
3 days of fun SW swell, NW swell, and nice weather Sunday through Tuesday. Late next week looks like fun NW/SW too but the clouds/drizzle return. Plan accordingly.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
NASA /JPL had a great story last fall about the possibility of hurricanes hitting southern California. Sure there’s been some shoddy records of tropical storms hitting us the past century but what about a full-fledged Florida style hurricane?! Here is NASA’s response the question everyone here wants answered…
There's an old adage that California has four seasons: earthquake, fire, flood and drought. While Californians happily cede the title of Hurricane Capital of America to U.S. East and Gulf coasters, every once in a while, Mother Nature sends a reminder to Southern Californians that they are not completely immune to the whims of tropical cyclones. Typically, this takes the form of rainfall from the remnants of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific, as happened recently when the remnants of Hurricane John brought rain and thunderstorms to parts of Southern California. But could a hurricane ever make landfall in Southern California? The answer, as it turns out, is yes, and no. While there has never been a documented case of a hurricane making landfall in California, the Golden State has had its share of run-ins and close calls with tropical cyclones. In fact, California has been affected by at least a few tropical cyclones in every decade since 1900. Over that timeframe, three of those storms brought gale-force winds to California: an unnamed California tropical storm in 1939, Kathleen in 1976 and Nora in 1997. But the primary threat from California tropical cyclones isn't winds or storm surge. It's rainfall -- sometimes torrential -- which has led to flooding, damage and, occasionally, casualties. At NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., JPL oceanographer and climatologist Bill Patzert was recently asked about the prospects for future tropical cyclones in Southern California.
QUESTION: Southern Californians don't generally think too much about hurricanes. But it seems as though every year or so, we get some rain from a tropical cyclone in Southern California. Which begs the question: could a hurricane ever strike here?
PATZERT: The interesting thing is that it really can't happen, statistically speaking. The odds are infinitesimal -- so small that everyone should just relax. Like 1 in 1,000. Of course, there's always a chance. As eastern Pacific hurricanes move northwest and weaken, what we have had are many instances where they dumped a lot of rainfall in Southern California. That's what happened with two monster storms in 1858 and 1939, both El Nino years. And there have been plenty of other examples. When Southern California does get affected by tropical systems, September is by far the most common month.
QUESTION: So why don't we get hurricanes here?
PATZERT: There are two main factors that work against hurricanes here: cool waters off the coast and the direction of the upper-level winds. Tropical cyclones draw their fuel, so to speak, from heat stored in the upper ocean. Typically, ocean surface waters greater than 80 degrees Fahrenheit are required to form and fuel these great storms. During the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, the upper layers of the tropical oceans (down to approximately 330 feet depth) are steadily heated. By September, when hurricane season hits its peak, these waters reach their maximum temperatures, becoming, in a sense, high-octane fuel for hurricanes. But water temperatures never get that high in the coastal waters north of central Baja California. On rare occasions, they may reach about 75 degrees Fahrenheit near the shore in Southern California, typically during an El Nino episode. But generally speaking, low 60's is about as warm as they get farther from shore and elsewhere in coastal California. In the Pacific Ocean, the North Pacific Current flows from Japan eastward across the Pacific and then splits into the northern-flowing Alaska Current and the southern-flowing California Current. The cool-water California Current, which sweeps down the West Coast of the United States, really acts as hurricane repellant, protecting California and even Northern Baja California from hurricanes. The other factor at play here is the upper-level winds, which tend to carry and steer storms to the west and northwest, away from California, and also tend to shear the tops off of hurricanes, breaking them apart. Between the upper and lower-level winds, there's a lot of wind shear off the coast here in Southern California. These prevailing northwesterly winds also push warmer surface waters offshore, drawing cooler waters up to the surface, and this further adds to the cool nature of the nearby ocean waters that would weaken any storms that did approach California.
QUESTION: But is there a "Perfect Storm" scenario that would allow a tropical cyclone to have a major impact on Southern California?
PATZERT: The best odds for a tropical cyclone to affect Southern California are during a "Godzilla" El Nino event, when the waters off the coast are warmest, like we had in 1997-98 when waters were in the low to mid 70's. Or when we're in the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-term pattern of change in the Pacific Ocean that alternates between cool and warm periods about every five to 20 years. We're currently in the early stages of a cool phase of the PDO, which tends to dampen the effects of El Ninos. Waters in the eastern Pacific generate more hurricanes during El Nino years. In addition, the upper-level winds would have to steer an unusually strong storm our way. That almost happened with Hurricane Linda in 1997, which briefly threatened Southern California before turning away to sea. But even if Linda had made landfall in California, it wouldn't have been a big wind event. It would have been more like an "atmospheric river" event, common in wintertime, with heavy rainfall and flooding. And storm surge, which is a big concern along the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, is really a negligible issue along most of the California coast, because much of it sits atop bluffs, above sea level.
QUESTION: Some scientists believe as Earth's climate gets warmer, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes may increase, though the jury is still out on that matter. Do you believe climate change will increase the odds of hurricanes affecting Southern California?
PATZERT: Nobody knows yet, and if anybody tells you they know the answer to that question, kick 'em out of your Rolodex file. In fact it's possible that there might be fewer hurricanes in a warming world. But the bottom line for Southern Californians is that even if global temperatures were to rise six degrees, a hurricane in California would rank very low on the list of things we'd need to worry about.
QUESTION. The winter of 1938-39 was something of a freak one for California, with multiple tropical cyclones and other storms affecting the state during the El Nino of 1938-39, resulting in major damage and a large number of fatalities. How have things changed in Southern California in terms of preparation for major storms since then?
PATZERT: Anytime you get too much rain too quick, it can cause damage and death, as we saw in the winter of 1938-39. But remember that was before we had a reliable observation network, based on ground and copious satellite measurements, which provided for useful forecasts and warnings. In addition, Southern Californians are flood resistant now because of those storms in 1938-39, which led to all the major rivers here being concreted. So we're largely immunized against these kinds of catastrophic flooding events now.
QUESTION. Do tropical cyclones have a significant impact on Southern California's annual rainfall?
PATZERT: In the Southeastern United States, an awful lot of the annual water budget comes from tropical storms, which can have a positive impact as drought busters. But tropical cyclones are not a significant contributor to our rainfall here in Southern California. The average rainfall in Los Angeles in September, even with rainfall from occasional tropical cyclones, is less than half an inch. These amounts are small compared to our normal winter total of 15.1 inches (31 centimeters). But we would certainly welcome any rainfall we can get in September and October, because it can help trump the effects of the hot, dry Santa Ana winds and their associated fire threat. And those are far more real threats to Californians than hurricanes will ever be.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
As the surf world gets ever so more crowded, creating new waves is a top priority. But the likelihood of wavepools, artificial reefs, or the availability of freeboarding/wakesurfing are few and far between. So what's the other alternative? How about bringing old waves back to life? That's the plan at one lagoon in north county San Diego. Check out the story on the blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check AND an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Considering the official start to hurricane season is May 15th AND we actually had tropical storm 'Alvin' form, I felt I should give some love to the kings of hurricanes- our East Coast brethren- with not 1 BUT two photos of the East Coast for the Pic of the Week. Of course it's once in a blue moon they actually get any surf out there but it doesn't mean I don't love them any less. As they say 'Only a face a mother could love'. Or is it 'Only a surfer knows the feeling'? Anyway, for more great shots of the east coast, head on over to ESM.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Deputy
Making Friends Left and Right
Mr. June in the Reef Guy Calendar
