THE Surf Report

'A' for effort.

SURF:
Still flat out there. Unless you're a grom then it's all time!

Just knee high surf around town and the OC has some sets almost waist high from the SW. The weather is great but that doesn't help the surf much. Tomorrow looks to be the same.

Currently there's a tropical depression off Baja trying to form into Tropical Storm Ivo. If it does, it's going to move NW towards us (good) but then die as it hits the middle of the Baja Peninsula (bad). Winds may only hit 50 mph which won't make the best swell but by late Sunday the OC may see some chest high sets from the S and maybe waist high in SD. Hey- it's better than nothing.

We also had s small storm form last week in the southern hemisphere that should give us a little waste high swell too. Along with Ivo, Sunday may have a couple small waves to ride.And unfortunately our typical afternoon WNW sea breezes this past week have knocked down our water temps to the mid-60's. Even though the weather is warm- the water isn't- make sure to pack that spring suit or short sleeve full for your next session.

Tides the next few days are around 0' at sunrise, 5.5' at lunch, down to 0.5' at dinner, and up slightly to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

The little tropical S swell holds into Monday morning and then we've got a little SW swell (notice a common theme in THE Surf Report today? It's 'small'. Killing me.) filling in late Monday for waist high waves in north county SD and maybe the odd bigger set in the OC.

After that we've got another small SW trying to form in the southern hemisphere late next week and another 'Ivo' situation taking hold off Baja again next Friday. Nothing spectacular but bares watching.

WEATHER:

Great weather on tap today with a couple tropical clouds overhead and no fog in sight. Tomorrow should be the same with clear skies and beach temps near 75. The only real excitement around here is the tropical clouds Ivo is supposed to stream into our area starting Sunday into Monday. If the models hold true, we may get a shot of showers across all of southern California- not just the mountains and deserts which would be typical this time of year. The clouds clear out towards Tuesday and holds through Thursday with a chance of night and morning low clouds returning. Charts then show another tropical system trying to form late next week which would give us monsoon type clouds again next weekend.

BEST BET:
Sunday with the little tropical S swell SW groundwell and  or maybe late Monday with another little SW swell- If the tropical rain doesn't make a mess of things.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Been a pretty uneventful hurricane season so far. If it wasn't for the soon to be Tropical Storm Ivo streaming thunderstorms into our region this weekend, it would be downright boring around here. I thought it would be a good time to take a look at 2 items today: what the hurricanes/tropical storms have done so far this season and what other tropical storms in the past have sent their significant weather to southern California.

As far as our season goes, we haven't had any barn burners yet. There's been 8 named storms and only one has given us a little shot of surf (Cosme)- and even that was hard to detect due to it's small size. Basically the storms have gone due W towards Hawaii or they've died out before they hit our swell window.

So the only real excitement is Ivo sending it's clouds our way late this weekend. As I mentioned in a previous THE Surf Report story a few months ago, we haven't had a full-blown hurricane hit us in recorded history, but we've been close. Here are a few of the more notable tropical cyclones that have affected Southern California:

- The San Diego 'hurricane' of 1858. This is the only tropical cyclone ever known to have affected California as a hurricane. Independent scholar Michael Chenoweth and researcher Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconstructed the storm in a paper published in 2004 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, using newspaper reports, daily weather observations by U.S. Army surgeons, ship observations and U.S. Coast Survey notebooks. The storm formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean in late September and intensified into an estimated Category 1 hurricane with highest winds of about 85 miles per hour (74 knots). By Oct. 2, its untypical north-northeasterly course had steered it just off the coast of San Diego, where cooler waters and strong wind shear weakened it slightly. Luckily, just before making landfall, the storm made a turn to the west-northwest, and then dissipated near Santa Catalina Island. Despite the near miss, instrument records in San Diego indicate the area experienced hurricane or near-hurricane force winds of approximately 75 mph (65 knots), heavy rain and considerable property damage. Heavy rainfall was also reported in San Pedro, Los Angeles and Visalia — up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) in places. There were few reports of significant winds in the Los Angeles region, however. The researchers reported that based upon historical records and modeling results, such a storm can be expected in the San Diego area about every 200 years, most likely during an El Nino event.

- The Tropical Cyclones of the El Nino of 1938-39. In Sept. 1939, just weeks after "The Wizard of Oz" premiered at movie theaters, Southern Californians may have thought they were in Kansas as well, as the first of four tropical cyclones affected the region during the El Nino of 1938-39. The first two storms – remnants of hurricanes – tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Southern California: up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) for the first storm and up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) for the second. A third storm dissipated in southern Baja California but brought up to 3 inches (8 centimeters) of rain to parts of the Southland. Then, on Sept. 25, an unnamed storm made landfall near San Pedro with winds near 50 mph (43 knots), becoming the only tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in Southern California as a tropical storm in recorded history. In addition to the winds, the storm brought up to 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain to the Los Angeles basin and as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain to the surrounding mountains. The storm caused heavy flooding and killed at least 45 people, mostly at sea. Low-lying coastal regions from Malibu to Huntington Beach were flooded, and thousands of people were stranded in their homes. There was heavy street flooding — up to 3 feet (1 meter) in places. Ten homes were washed away by waves in Belmont Shore. There was significant agricultural damage. The pier at Point Mugu was destroyed. There was significant disruption of communications throughout the region. The fact that the storm came on suddenly, leaving many people unprepared, led to the establishment of a Southern California forecast office for the United States Weather Bureau in 1940.

- Kathleen. In mid-September of 1976, during an El Nino year, Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California and moved into California and Arizona, still at tropical storm strength. Sustained winds of 57 mph (91 kilometers per hour) were reported in Yuma, Ariz. The storm brought 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain to Southern California's central and southern mountains. Ocotillo, Calif. suffered catastrophic damage, with 70 to 80 percent of the town destroyed. Twelve deaths were blamed on the storm in the United States. The Associated Press reported hundreds of homes were destroyed or damaged in the United States by Kathleen, which was described as a one-in-160-year event.

- Linda. Sept. 1997, also an El Nino year, brought one colossal near-miss to Southern California with Hurricane Linda, the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record. This Category 5 hurricane at one point had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (161 knots). For a couple of nerve-wracking days, National Hurricane Center forecasters warned the storm could barrel into Southern California, most likely as a tropical storm. Fortunately, the storm turned westward away from land. Still, Linda brought significant rainfall across parts of Southern California and waves up to 18 feet (5.5 meters), and caused several million dollars in property damage.

- Nora. Also in Sept. 1997, in the wake of Hurricane Linda, Hurricane Nora crossed into California and Arizona from Baja California as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rains to parts of southeast California and Arizona. The storm caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, especially to agriculture.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

What's the best freesurfer in the world been up to lately? (and I'm not talking about John John since technically he's on tour). I'm talkin' 'bout Dane Reynolds! Yes- he's still alive. Dane's been getting in shape for the upcoming Hurley Pro at Lowers. Not the full psycho Fanning training session but just laying off the beers basically. Check out the full story on the North County Surf blog. All of that  and more, plus the mid-week Surf Check and an in depth THE Surf Report in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever heard of the sister city program? It's an organization dedicated to advancing and promoting friendship and good will amongst the world’s nations by developing special relationships between cities. The sister city for Encinitas in case you're wondering is Amakusa City, Japan. Carlsbad has two- Futtsu, Japan and Karlovy Vary, Czech Republic. And Newport Beach has three- Antibes, France, Ensenada, Mexico, and Okazaki, Japan. What does that have to do with surfing? I think surf spots should have 'sister surfs'. Like the sister surf to Pipeline could be Teahupoo. Or Blacks and Hossegor. And today's Pic of the week- Swami's and Bells Beach! Just a thought.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
He-Man
I Love Haters
Unofficially Still A Team Rider For Stubbies