Signs of intelligent life.
SURF:
Gorgeous day today and we even got a little surf! A new fun SW swell showed up yesterday for waist high+ waves around town with sets up to shoulder high in the OC. It has also been backed up today with a little NW swell.
FORECAST:
After a little weekend of surf and nice weather, we get a little boost from a NW groundswell on Tuesday for waist high waves in town and maybe the odd chest high set in south SD. The middle of the week looks tiny then we should get another shot of small NW/SW for next weekend. Nothing spectacular but at least some little waves every few days.
WEATHER:
Amazing weather lately. But what do you expect from late August/early September? The temp when I got up this morning was already 75 degrees due to all the tropical moisture streaming in from the south. It will continue to stream in today for thunderstorms out in the mountains/deserts and maybe even a stray one in the inland valleys. The beaches of course will get those killer looking clouds and amazing sunsets. Tomorrow the monsoon clouds will back off and we get a slight return of the night and morning low clouds/fog over the weekend but nothing to really mess up a day at the beach. The 2nd half of next week shows a return of tropical clouds on the weather charts.
BEST BET:
Today! Peaking SW swell, a little NW, and great weather. Why are you even at work right now?!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
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Considering it’s been small around here lately and we’re not getting any love from hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, I thought we should take a look at our East Coast counterparts and see if they’d have any luck lately. Here’s the latest from the NOAA:
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin... who’s next? Probably plenty more, according to NOAA’s updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook. With five named storms already in the books this summer, the 2013 hurricane season is shaping up to be above normal, and there is a possibility that it could be very active during the peak of the season from mid-August through October. An additional 9-15 named storms are likely, of which 6-9 are predicted to become hurricanes, with 3-5 reaching major hurricane status.
Among the climate factors behind the heightened activity? Heat. The tropical cyclone heat potential of the tropical Atlantic Ocean has ramped up considerably between May 24 and August 4. This “hurricane heat potential” depends not just on the surface temperature, but on the depth of the warm water.
Yellow and orange colors indicate places where the amount of
heat in the water column is enough (at least 50 kilojoules per square
centimeter) to significantly impact the intensity of hurricanes, provided that
atmospheric conditions are also favorable. Blue colors show where there was no
hurricane heat potential; water temperatures were below 26°C (80°F)—the minimum
temperature needed to sustain hurricanes.
On May 24, just before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the ocean energy available for hurricanes was confined to the northern Caribbean Sea , which is typical for that time of the year. Prior to June it was generally not conducive to tropical storms and hurricanes in much of the Atlantic basin. In contrast, the hurricane-fueling warmth had expanded significantly by early August, extending east across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, north into the Gulf of Mexico, and even into the Gulf Stream Current just off the southeast coast of the United States.
The preseason hurricane outlook, issued on May 23, cited developing climate conditions that appeared to be similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. These climate factors included above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that give storm systems the fuel they need to develop into tropical systems and hurricanes.
As the summer progressed, warm waters expanded far enough eastward into the Atlantic during June and July to help generate two named storms, Chantal and Dorian, in the deep tropical Atlantic. Named storms forming in this region as early as June and July are historically an indicator of an active season. Tropical Storm Chantal dissipated after skirting the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and Dorian lost steam as it moved northeast off the Carolina coast.
By August, all of these indications of an above-normal hurricane season — early summer storms generated in the deep tropical Atlantic, above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a strong rainy season in West Africa — remained. Consequently, the updated outlook remained similar to the pre-season forecast, except that forecasters made a very slight downgrade. They now do not predict quite such extreme levels of storm activity throughout the next few months. Why?
Back in May, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern remained in a neutral phase in the tropical Pacific, but it was too early to rule out the possibility that the pattern’s cool phase, La Niña, could develop. La Niña tends to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic and, if it had developed on top of all the other hurricane-friendly climate conditions, the seasonal predictions could have been even higher. In the early August outlook, however, models indicated that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue through the season, with only a low probability (19 percent) that La Niña will develop.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If it's not the housing boom lately then it's all the new business construction going on that has me convinced good times are here again. Start spending everybody! The Reagan years are back! Maybe not that drastic but there's been a heck of a lot of existing home sales, new home construction, restaurants popping up, and new businesses being built. Like the old Olympic Resort being torn down and Lowes going in or Pat & Oscar's being raised and doubled in size to make way for Palomar Place. Check out the full story on the North County Surf blog. All of that and more, plus the mid-week Surf Check and an in depth THE Surf Report at www.northcountysurf.blogspot.com
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Bought a plane ticket and I'm headed to the islands in October. The lack of surf here on the mainland has driven me to do drastic things. Actually, I'd go to Hawaii regardless, but it just makes me feel better when I see my credit card statement next month.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Tycoon
Broke Up With Miley
Talking to Kickstarter to Put An Atlantis Resort On The Ranch
