THE Surf Report- Early Edition

It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

SURF:
Thought I should get THE Surf Report out tonight since we won't be around tomorrow. Ok, that's not really true, I just happened to get it done early and didn't feel like waiting 'til Friday. Anyway, we had some jumbled surf earlier in the week then clean fun surf today.

On Friday we'll have some leftover NW swell for chest high sets around town. Had a big storm in the Aleutians yesterday, one buoy in the middle of the mess recorded 46' swell at 18 seconds. That's a beast. One of the biggest readings I've seen in years. Unfortunately for us, the swell angle for this storm is pretty north so we'll only get a glancing blow.

On Saturday we'll have overhead sets in north county SD (can't complain) and 10' sets in SD. Orange County will be partially blocked by the offshore islands and will have chest high sets at the best spots. That will last into Sunday. There's some showers also forecasted for Sunday so pick your day to surf wisely. All in all a fun weekend for surf.

Tides the next few days are about 5' at sunrise, down to 0' at noon, and back up to 3' at sunset. Water temps are still holding at 60.

FORECAST:

After the good NW this weekend, we amazingly get a little bump from the SW on Christmas for the OC. We had a small late season storm in the southern hemisphere last week and it sent a waist-chest high SW swell our way.

That lasts a couple days then a new NW kicks in for SD on Thursday for more head high sets in north county and overhead sets in SD; more showers too unfortunately. All in all a little something for everyone next week. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Looks like winter is finally here. Literally- today is the 1st day of winter. But that's not what I'm talking about; the weather the past week has finally felt like winter. After a great summer and beautiful fall, we finally have cold air temps, wind, clouds, and rain. Today we have clear cold skies that will be replaced by clouds tomorrow. Showers will then take over on Sunday and last into Monday. By Christmas Day the storm will have exited the region and we're left with clear cold skies. Better than the 80 degree Xmas' of year's past. Good weather should last through mid-week then models show another storm system moving through the region towards Thursday. Looks like the storm next Thursday will be a little stronger than Sunday's storm- if you're keeping track.

BEST BET:
New NW on Saturday in San Diego with semi-clean conditions. Or a small clean SW for the OC on Xmas. Or a bigger NW for everyone next Thursday but rain probably. I can't make up my mind.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Yesterday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released preliminary information on extreme weather and climate events in the U.S. for 2012 that are known to have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses. As of December 20, NOAA estimates that the nation experienced 11 such events, to include seven severe weather/tornado events, two tropical storm/hurricane events, and the yearlong drought and associated wildfires. These eleven events combined are believed to have caused 349 deaths, with the most significant losses of life occurring during Sandy (131) and the summer-long heat wave and associated drought, which caused over 123 direct deaths (though an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown).

The eleven events include:
- Southeast/Ohio Valley Tornadoes — March 2–3 2012
 -Texas Tornadoes — April 2–3 2012
 -Great Plains Tornadoes — April 13–14 2012
 -Midwest/Ohio Valley Severe Weather — April 28–May 1 2012
 -Southern Plains/Midwest/Northeast Severe Weather — May 25–30 2012
 -Rockies/Southwest Severe Weather — June 6–12 2012
- Plains/East/Northeast Severe Weather (“Derecho”) — June 29–July 2 2012
 -Hurricane Isaac — August 26–31 2012
 -Western Wildfires — Summer–Fall, 2012
 -Hurricane Sandy — October 29–31 2012
 -U.S. Drought/Heatwave — throughout 2012

Economic losses for two events, Sandy and the yearlong drought, are the big drivers this year in terms of costs and are still being calculated. It will take months to develop a final, reliable estimate for each. Given how big these events are likely to be, NOAA estimates 2012 will surpass 2011 (exceeding $60 billion, CPI-adjusted to 2012 dollars) in terms of aggregate costs for annual billion-dollar disasters, even with fewer number of billion-dollar disasters. The greatest annual loss to date was 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis struck Florida and the Gulf Coast states (costs exceeded $187 billion, CPI-adjusted to 2012 dollars). That is just staggering.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Have you seen the rickety scaffolding south of Cardiff Reef recently? No, it's not the return of the Bud Tour. It's the world famous Scripps Institute doing top secret research. Or something like that. Check out the details on the North County Surf blog. And of course a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report - all of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

There are so many untapped spots around the world just waiting to be surfed. If you tried to hit them all, it would take centuries. Like this spot in Chile. By the time you worked your way down the coast and surfed all the good spots in Baja, then mainland Mex, then Nicaragua, Costa Rica, etc., you'd be like Slater's age. What is he like 90 or something now? Regardless, he'll still be ruling the world tour at that age.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Mayan Priest
On Somebody's Naughty List
Still Partying With Parko