I'm asking Santa for surf this holiday season.
SURF:
We've got some new NW windswell in the water today with chest high+ sets around town and shoulder high+ in SD. The OC is just left with some waist high+ NW/SW combo.
FORECAST:
Just not a lot out there unfortunately. Really, there's nothing of substance in the models. The tropics of course have shut down for the holidays, the south Pacifc is on vacation, and the north Pacific is being a Grinch. After the NW windswell this weekend, charts show some more NW windswell forming mid-week for shoulder high surf towards late Wednesday into Thursday. Best case is SD to have some shoulder high sets. But if the forecasted showers show up too, it may be junky. Not the most appealing scenario. More on that below...
WEATHER:
Got a little bit of everything the next 7 days. Today we've got more cool overcast conditions and some patches of fog this morning. Tomorrow skies start to clear as high pressure builds and temps hit 65 degrees at the beach. Then a cold front digs in behind us and sets up an offshore wind event. The valleys and foothills out east will have gusts to 50mph while we get 10mph+ NE winds. That lasts into Monday and weakens Tuesday. Low clouds/fog return for Wednesday and models show a weak cold front headed our way for Thursday/Friday. Still a lot of uncertainty with this storm but we should at least get showers by the end of the week.
BEST BET:
Hard to say- a little NW tomorrow and clearing skies or better NW next Thursday and a chance of showers. Beggers can't be choosers I guess.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So either you believe or don’t believe in global warming but whatever is going on, we’re right in the middle of it. And what it is, is record warm air temps and water temps. Take the Arctic for instance. The Arctic region continued to break records in 2012—among them the loss of summer sea ice, spring snow cover, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This was true even though air temperatures in the Arctic were unremarkable relative to the last decade, according to a new report released this week. “The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, during a press briefing at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, Calif. “The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation.” Lubchenco participated in a panel discussion that presented the annual update of the Arctic Report Card. Major findings of this year’s report include:
•Snow cover: A new record low snow extent for the Northern Hemisphere was set in June 2012, and a new record low was reached in May over Eurasia.
•Sea ice: Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 set a new all-time record low, as measured by satellite since 1979.
•Greenland ice sheet: There was a rare, nearly ice sheet-wide melt event on the Greenland ice sheet in July, covering about 97 percent of the ice sheet on a single day.
•Vegetation: The tundra is getting greener and there’s more above-ground growth. During the period of 2003-2010, the length of the growing season increased through much of the Arctic.
•Wildlife & food chain: In northernmost Europe, the Arctic fox is close to extinction and vulnerable to the encroaching Red fox. Additionally, recent measurements of massive phytoplankton blooms below the summer sea ice suggest that earlier estimates of biological production at the bottom of the marine food chain may have been ten times lower than was occurring.
•Ocean: Sea surface temperatures in summer continue to be warmer than the long-term average at the growing ice-free margins, while upper ocean temperature and salinity show significant interannual variability with no clear trends.
•Weather: Most of the notable weather activity in fall and winter occurred in the sub-Arctic due to a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation, expressed as the atmospheric pressure difference between weather stations in the Azores and Iceland. There were three extreme weather events including an unusual cold spell in late January to early February 2012 across Eurasia, and two record storms characterized by very low central pressures and strong winds near western Alaska in November 2011 and north of Alaska in August 2012.
“Popular perceptions of the Arctic as a distant, icy, cold place that has little relevance to those outside the region are being challenged”, said Martin Jeffries, co-editor of the 2012 Report Card and Arctic science adviser, Office of Naval Research & research professor, University of Alaska-Fairbanks. “As snow and ice retreat, the marine and terrestrial ecosystems respond, and talk of increased tourism, natural resource exploitation, and marine transportation grows. The Arctic Report Card does a great service in charting the many physical and biological changes.”
Apart from one or two exceptions, the scientists said the air temperatures were not unusually high this year relative to the last decade. Nevertheless, they saw large changes in multiple indicators affecting Arctic climate and ecosystems; combined, these changes are strong evidence of the growing momentum of Arctic environmental system change. The record-breaking year also indicates that it is unlikely that conditions can quickly return to their former state.
“The record low spring snow extent and record low summer sea ice extent in 2012 exemplify a major source of the momentum for continuing change,” added Jeffries. “As the sea ice and snow cover retreat, we’re losing bright, highly reflective surfaces, and increasing the area of darker surfaces—both land and ocean—exposed to sunlight. This increases the capacity to store heat within the Arctic system, which enables more melting—a self-reinforcing cycle.”
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Had cheap Channel Islands on the blog last week and this week we've got a ton of clothes (and a solid Homer Simpson skateboard) for all your Xmas gift needs. And of course a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report - all of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I had a shot of this place for the Pic of the Week a few years ago from a closer perspective. Pulled back a little further you can see the extent of the reef, length of ride, and a couple other sets ups on the offshore islands. Oh- and that luxury yacht for a few lucky stiffs who are wasting a ton of money by not being out there right now!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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Royal Nanny
Got Barrelled Before Booby At Waimea
