THE Surf Report- Late Edition

Just like winter.

SURF:
It is winter of course but we seem to be missing... big surf.

Instead we're left with off and on fun waves and off and on weather. Today we had good head high sets from the NW with mostly clean conditions until mid-afternoon. The NW is dying unfortunately and tomorrow looks to have chest high sets and Sunday we're down to waist high sets. Not much of a weekend but at least the sun is out.

Water temps are still warm for December- 63 degrees- and the tides are mellow the next few days with 2' tides at sunrise, up to 4' after lunch, and down to 2' again at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

A small clean weekend will be replaced by junky storm surf on Tuesday (more on that below). And then after that- nothing. Seriously, nothing.

Maybe some little NW/SW late next weekend but that's about it. Sorry. 

WEATHER:

Great weather this past week and more on tap this weekend. Just a little cool- which it should be for December- not a big fan of 85 degree Christmas Days anyway. Models hint at a cold storm headed our way late Monday through Wednesday morning. Not sure how much rain we'll get but it will be COLD (with snow around 2500 feet) and windy conditions. High pressure will set up the 2nd half of next week and we'll get cool sunny skies yet again.

BEST BET:
Considering it will be flat the next 7 or so days except for the storm surf mid-week, Tuesday/Wednesday wins by default.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

More useless trivia to impress your friends at the New Years Eve party...

2000:
Santa Ana winds blew on 12/25 and on this day. Gusts of 87 mph were measured at Fremont Canyon. Damage and injuries occurred in Mira Loma, and in Orange County.

1988:
A week of subfreezing temperatures hit Southern California starting on 12/24 and ending on 12/30. On 12/27 it was coldest, with most valleys down in the 20s, Big Bear Lake dropped to -2°, and Cuyamaca fell to 5°. Five died as a result of the cold.

1987:
A cold snap descended on the region. It was 9° at Mt. Laguna, and 22° in Valley Center on 12/25. On this day it was 15° in Julian and Mt. Laguna, 16° in Campo, 22° in Poway, 26° in El Cajon, 30° in Del Mar, and 37° in San Diego. Extensive damage to avocado and citrus crops resulted.

1971:
A series of wet storms hit the region during this week starting on 12/22 and ending on 12/28. 19.44 inches fell in Lake Arrowhead, 15.26 inches in Lytle Creek, 12.31 inches in Big Bear Lake, 7.49 inches in Palomar Mountain, 5.45 inches in San Bernardino, 4.98 inches in Santa Ana, 3.92 inches in Redlands, 3.04 inches in Riverside, 2.28 inches in San Diego, 1.24 inches in Palm Springs, and 1.02 inches in Victorville. Extensive street flooding occurred across the region. This day marked the start of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which ended on 12/28. This also occurred on 2/18-24/2005, 1/13-19/1993, and 2/14-20/1980. These heavy storms started out warm on previous days, but then turned colder on this day to 12/28. The three day snowfall was up to two feet deep at Lake Arrowhead, 20 inches at Palomar Mountain, 15 inches at Big Bear Lake, 13 inches at Idyllwild, and six inches at Cuyamaca. Snow closed the Morongo Pass at Yucca Valley for a time.

1921:
A succession of heavy storms from 12/17 to 12/27 produced a total of 29.38 inches at Mt. Wilson (only 1.48 inches had fallen there since 5/23). 30.64 inches fell at Squirrel Inn at Lake Arrowhead. From 12/24 to this day, 6.76 inches fell in LA. Widespread flooding of roads, bridges, railroads, farms, etc., resulted. Flooded areas along the Santa Ana and San Gabriel Rivers were easily seen from atop Mt. Wilson from the coast to 20 to 30 miles inland. Lake Arrowhead rose seven feet. On this day 2.10 inches fell in Redlands and 1.71 inches fell in San Bernardino.

1891:
A period of very cold weather started on 12/23 and ended on 12/30. San Diego pools had ice 0.5 inch thick on the surface and ice one inch thick formed on oranges on trees in Mission Valley. The low temperature in San Diego was 32°, the lowest temperature on record for December.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If you didn't know why they call this the East Coast's version of Hawaii, now you know.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Robust
Hacked the Hackers
Vegas Has Me at 5-1 Odds to Win 2015 World Tour

The Surf Report- Early Edition

Back on track.

SURF:

Lots of surf this past week. And lots of storms too. Today we still had shoulder high sets from the NW and tomorrow will back off slightly, but we'll have fun chest high surf around town nonetheless.

Fear not though as more head high NW is headed our way for Saturday and overhead sets in SD. Sunday backs off slightly but we should have shoulder high sets to keep you amped.

Water temps are an unbelievable 64 degrees for December and tides the next few days are 6' at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and up to 1' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to speed on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After a fun weekend of surf, we get another little pulse of chest high NW towards Tuesday that holds through the end of the work week.

Models show another storm taking shape in the Aleutians late in the week which may give us more head high NW late Sunday. Nothing big as far as the eye can see but at least we'll have rideable waves in the near future and cleaner conditions.

WEATHER:

We've got one last little shot of showers late tomorrow/early Saturday and then high pressure sets up shop for the 1st half of the work week. We'll have sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's. Towards the end of the week (i.e. Xmas), high pressure breaks down and we'll have cooler conditions and more clouds. No 'white' Christmas but at least it will be cooler. Models hint at MAYBE some more rain late next weekend but I'm not making any guarantees yet.

BEST BET:
Tough call- slightly bumpy but larger surf Saturday morning or smaller cleaner surf most of next week...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Rain Story 2: Last week I talked about the 1st real storm we had at the beginning of December and how El Nino may finally be arriving. Well, with the recent storm a few days ago downtown San Diego has had 4.87" of rain so far in December. So even though the month is barely half over, this December already ranks as the 14th wettest December on record. FYI: The average rainfall for December is 1.53". So where are we at with other locations around southern California?

• Newport Beach: 0.11" from the last storm. 3.70" for the season so far. 122% of normal
• Oceanside: 0.18" from the last storm. 3.64" for the season so far. 121% of normal.
• Lindbergh Field. 0.84" from the last storm. 4.87" for the season so far. 192% of normal.

So is the El Nino back on track? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has raised their El Nino status to 'watch' with the weather phenomenon having a 65% chance of occurring through the rest of the winter and through spring 2015 (vs. 58% just last month).

 

6-10 Day Outlook

 

 

 

1 Month Outlook

 

 

Current forecasts in the near term don't show any big storms through the end of the year but the 1 month outlook shows a 40% chance of above average rainfall next month. So we've still got a shot of having above average rainfall this season (i.e. our seasonal average is around 10" and we're almost 1/2 there already with January-April left in our 'rainy' window). 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Sometimes the best presents are the ones right under your tree.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Astonishing
Playing the Lead in Elf 2
Put Headlights On My 8'6" So I Can Surf Cortes At Night

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

All I want for Christmas is El Nino.

SURF:
Looks like my Christmas wish may be coming true. Just when I started to give up on the weather phenomenon known as El Nino, the child rears it's ugly head. But before I get ahead of myself, let's talk about the past week.

Not much surf on tap but fantastic December weather around town. High clouds started to filter in yesterday and really got thick today as the NW picked up too from our impending storm. Late tonight winds should hit the 30mph+ range and the overhead surf today will hit double overhead in SD tomorrow. Long story short, lots of wind and rain tomorrow and stormsurf. Saturday things start to clean up but it's still jumbled. By Sunday we've got nice weather and leftover head high+ waves.

Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and tides are 3' at sunrise, up to 4' at lunch, and down to 3' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
As I mentioned at the top of THE Surf Report, it seems like El Nino has finally arrived to the party. Lots of rain last week, bombing surf tomorrow with rain again, and in our forecast... more rain and big surf.

More storms in the Pacific will send another shot of overhead NW surf on Tuesday (along with rain yet again) and another blast of NW on Thursday.

After that, charts show a monster of storm off Japan which may send us a BIG NW towards late Sunday next weekend. Time to channel your inner Dorian!

WEATHER:

From famine to feast. No rain for 9 months and now more than the leaks in my roof can handle. After a good storm earlier this month, we're due for a nastier one tonight. The storm that's dumping 6-12" of rain up north today- as well as 6'+ surf at Lake Tahoe- and 50mph winds in San Fran- will finally make landfall here early Friday. We won't get the brunt of the storm but we will get up to an inch of rain at the coast and 30mph winds. Pretty good for southern California. Saturday is cool and breezy and Sunday/Monday look to be cool and pleasant. Charts then show ANOTHER storm headed our way for next Tuesday/Wednesday. After that it's anyone's guess (models actually show another storm next weekend- seriously) but at least we're on the right track to fill up our reservoirs.

BEST BET:
Sunday as we'll have leftover NW and clean conditions. Or next Thursday with clean conditions again and another overhead NW swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

With more rain coming tomorrow, where do we stand with the help of our last storm in early December for our rain totals? That storm didn't bring a lot of wind but it did bring a lot of rain. Spots like Yucaipa Ridge in the San Bernardino Mountains saw an incredible 14+ inches of rain. Spots along the coast didn't get that much of course but it was a much needed 1-2". And with the storm coming tonight, we should really see our season to date totals increase dramatically and help our drought situation. So where do we stand season to date? Here's what we have so far (PS- season to date is July 1st to June 30th):

-Long Beach: 2.99" so far. Normal is 2.06". 145% of normal.
-Oceanside: 2.26" so far. Normal is 2.41". Only 94% of normal.
-San Diego: 2.98" so far. Normal is 1.99". 150% of normal.

Looks good so far but we're still a LOOOOOONG ways away from the end of the season (which is around 10+" for a normal season) and we need a heck of a lot more to get us out of the drought. Pray tonight's storm and next Tuesday's storm get us to the half way mark.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The best view in the world, compliments of Clark Little. Enough said.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Pundit
Paid $1.99 For Gas Today
Only Triple Crown Jockey and Surfing Champion

Surf Check

Cleaner weather but dirtier water today. The rain continues to fall, the wind has backed off, and we've got a new mix of NW groundswell, short period W swell, and smaller stormsurf SW swell from the winds yesterday. And of course the water is dirty and will be for a few days from the rain runoff.

The waves were off and on the past week with great weather. Today of course we have rainy conditions with better surf in the chest high+ range but it's best to stay out of the water for a few days. Unfortunately, as the water and weather cleans up, our surf will go flat this weekend. Awesome.

Good news is that we have more surf on the charts but it's about a week out. We should get a shot of head high NW swell towards Tuesday and another shot towards Thursday so at least we'll have waves the 2nd half of next week.

So in the meantime, the only real excitement is the weather. Spots in the mountains above L.A. and the OC had up to 6" with more coming today. That's half a foot of water people. Nuts. Down here in SD it's been around 1". Models show another round of rain showing up this afternoon with SD getting up to 1/2" at the coast and the OC beaches getting another 1". Things should start to clear out tomorrow and be nice on Friday/Saturday. Models show a weak trough trying to move through the area on Saturday evening/Sunday morning but we'll only get light showers at best. After that, high pressure sets up next week for nice weather.

Water temps are still in the mid-60's and we're in December! Tides the next few days are all over the place; about 6' at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.