THE Surf Report

 

It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year

SURF:

With apologies to singer/songwriter Andy Williams, the holidays are NOT the most wonderful time of the year. Early fall is. Why? Our water is still warm. The south winds of summer/NW winds of winter haven't kicked in. The tourists are gone. AND we've got combo swell! What else could you want?! 

For the weekend, we've got background SW swell with new NW filling in on Friday for more chest high surf. That last into Saturday morning then we're back to waist high+ surf on Sunday. Conditions should also be nice with sunny afternoons and mild sea breezes. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:43 AM sunrise  
• 6:33 PM sunset  
• less than 12 hours of sunlight if you hadn't noticed...

• Water is still holding on to 70 give or take

• And tides are straightforward this weekend:
• 2' at sunrise
• 5.5' mid-day
• down to 0.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Got a couple more swells on the horizon from the NW and SW next week. 

First up is a fun-sized SW arriving on Monday for more chest high surf. 

Following that is an early season NW for more chest high surf arriving later in the week on Thursday. The entire Pacific looks active for the next couple weeks so we should see more SW/NW late next weekend into the following week. As far as the tropics go, they're still trying to spit out hurricanes. At this point in time though, they'll most likely crash into mainland Mexico. 

WEATHER:

Nothing exciting on the weather front except for some late season thunderstorms in the mountains. Which I’ll take when compared to Hurricane Ian. A couple weak systems are heading into the Pacific NW the next few days so we’re just left with a bit more low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings. Look for sunny skies by mid-day and temps in the low 70’s. Night time lows will only drop a few degrees to the mid-60’s. And let’s just be honest here- we won’t see any real weather around here until January! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Nothing big on the horizon but fun surf Friday, Monday, and Thursday. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Let's talk about rain. Or the lack thereof (see: San Diego), or way too much (see: Hurricane Ian), or- where does it even come from? 

Let's start with the basics. How do rain droplets form? The clouds floating overhead contain water vapor and cloud droplets, which are small drops of condensed water. These droplets are way too small to fall as precipitation, but they are large enough to form visible clouds. Water is continually evaporating and condensing in the sky. If you look closely at a cloud you can see some parts disappearing (evaporating) while other parts are growing (condensation). Most of the condensed water in clouds does not fall as precipitation because their fall speed is not large enough to overcome updrafts which support the clouds.

For precipitation to happen, first tiny water droplets must condense on even tinier dust, salt, or smoke particles, which act as a nucleus. Water droplets may grow as a result of additional condensation of water vapor when the particles collide. If enough collisions occur to produce a droplet with a fall velocity which exceeds the cloud updraft speed, then it will fall out of the cloud as precipitation. This is not a trivial task since millions of cloud droplets are required to produce a single raindrop. A more efficient mechanism (known as the Bergeron-Findeisen process) for producing a precipitation-sized drop is through a process which leads to the rapid growth of ice crystals at the expense of the water vapor present in a cloud. These crystals may fall as snow, or melt and fall as rain.

Now that's what's SUPPOSED to happen in San Diego- to the tune of 10+" or rain a year. But as our 'rainy' season concludes tomorrow (the timeframe is October 1st to September 30th), we ended on a low note- our 3rd straight year of drought. So just how bad was it? Let’s take a look at the final tallies:

• Newport Beach: 6.92” of rain, normal is 11.18”. Only 63% of average
• Oceanside: 7.15” of rain, normal is 11.86”. Only 62% of average
• San Diego: 6.08” or rain, normal is 9.45”. Only 64% of average

And with another La Nina forecasted this winter, expect more of the same.

 
On the flip side, Hurricane Ian in Florida the past few days has been one of the biggest to ever hit the state. Officials are still assessing the damage, but preliminary reports are:

• Sustained winds of over 140 mph before it hit the central west coast of Florida
• Storm surge of 6-8'
• Over 15” of rain in some locations
• And the size of the storm was enormous as it covered a majority of the state of Florida

A couple interesting observations I noted:

• The wind was blowing so hard in some locations, that it was pushing water out of bays and it looked like a negative tide or what happens before a tsunami arrives

• As the storm formed south of Cuba, the swells it created were blocked by the island- so there wasn’t a lot of waves initially in Florida as Ian approached. But as the storm cleared Cuba and raced towards Florida, in a short span of time and limited fetch area, swells jumped from 0 to 25’ within the day.

• Storm surge was also a massive problem as the Florida coastline is low lying. For comparison’s sake, we’ve had a few El Nino storms over the years in which 2” of rain causes a good amount of flooding (Mission Valley comes to mind). Now think if the flooding was a storm surge instead, and it was in the range of 6-8’. Unimaginable.

• And a common occurrence here in southern California is the dreaded upwelling. NW winds will blow along our SW shores, push the warmer top layer of water back, and up comes the colder water. This summer we had some drastic 15 degree swings in a week. With Hurricane Ian yesterday, Florida also had a drop of water temps with some locations dropping upwards of 7 degrees in 1 day.

From drought on the West Coast to flooding on the East Coast, will we ever get back to normal around here?

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the kingdom has now been handed down to King Charles III. I know everyone talks about the monarchy's jewels, Buckingham Palace, pomp and circumstance, etc., but it's surf like this in England that the new leader should be most excited about. Long live the King! 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Mystifying
Got The Hamburglar In My Happy Meal
Still Use Paraffin 'Cause My Surfing's So Hot

THE Surf Report

 

Who Said Normal Is Boring?

SURF:

It's quiet around here. Almost too quiet. Fun combo surf earlier in the week has trended down to the waist high+ range with sunny cool conditions. Typical NW winds for this time of year have also dropped our water temps down to the high 60's and the cold front that moved through Nor-Cal the past few days will bring the expected warm up down here this weekend. Fall is acting like... fall. 

For our surf, we had some good activity in the southern hemisphere last week which will kick in SW swell this weekend. Look for chest high sets by Saturday afternoon with NW windswell expected to join the mix Saturday/Sunday. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:38 AM sunrise  
• 6:42 PM sunset  

• Trunks no more? Unless you're ok with 67 degree water temps.

• And we have a little more action in the tides this weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• about 5' mid-morning
• just over 1' mid-afternoon
• and back up to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

The SW continues Monday with a secondary boost early in the week. That swell is also joined by more NW windswell/groundswell to kick the surf up a notch to the shoulder high range by mid-week. 

On it's heels, we may even see a better NW groundswell by Thursday for chest high+ surf. Conditions should also be good too with mainly NW wind in the afternoons and sunny skies. 

After that, models show a chest high+ SW forming this weekend off Antarctica that may give us more swell next weekend. In summary: nothing big in the next 7 days but plenty of waves.

WEATHER:

As is expected this time of year, storms are taking shape in the N Pacific as we gear up for winter- but can't quite make it all the way down here to So-Cal. What we get instead is high pressure behind the storm, setting up shop in the western US, and warm temps along the coastal strip. Look for sunny skies this weekend and temps in the high 70's. High pressure peaks early next week for temps in the mid to low 80's at the beaches before we get back to normal in the mid 70's late next week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Saturday though Saturday with varying degrees of fun SW, NW, or both! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

There's been some big waves science has discovered throughout history- the largest being the one caused by an asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs- a whopping 5,000' feet tall (and you thought 50' Nazare' was big). We had pretty big surf ourselves recently, the one caused by the initial tsunami wave created by the eruption of the underwater Hunga Tonga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022. Scientists predict this one reached almost 300', around nine times taller than the one from the highly destructive 2011 Japan tsunami. Here's Science Today to explain:

An international research team says the eruption should serve as a wake-up call for international groups looking to protect people from similar events in future, claiming that detection and monitoring systems for volcano-based tsunamis are '30 years behind' comparable tools used to detect earthquake-based events.

Dr Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Secretary-General of the International Tsunami Commission and a senior lecturer in the University of Bath's Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering, authored the research alongside colleagues based in Japan, New Zealand, the UK and Croatia.

By comparison, the largest tsunami waves due to earthquakes before the Tonga event were recorded following the Tōhoku earthquake near Japan in 2011 and the 1960 Chilean earthquake, reached 30'+ in initial height. Those were more destructive as they happened closer to land, with waves that were wider.

Dr Heidarzadeh says the Tonga tsunami should serve as a wake-up call for more preparedness and understanding of the causes and signs of tsunamis cause by volcanic eruptions. He says: "The Tongan tsunami tragically killed five people and caused large scale destruction, but its effects could have been even greater had the volcano been located closer to human communities. The volcano is located approximately 70 km from the Tongan capital Nuku'alofa -- this distance significantly minimized its destructive power.

"This was a gigantic, unique event and one that highlights that internationally we must invest in improving systems to detect volcanic tsunamis as these are currently around 30 years behind the systems we used to monitor for earthquakes. We are under-prepared for volcanic tsunamis."

The research was carried out by analysing ocean observation data recordings of atmospheric pressure changes and sea level oscillations, in combination with computer simulations validated with real-world data.

The research team found that the tsunami was unique as the waves were created not only by the water displaced by the volcano's eruption, but also by huge atmospheric pressure waves, which circled around the globe multiple times. This 'dual mechanism' created a two-part tsunami -- where initial ocean waves created by the atmospheric pressure waves were followed more than one hour later by a second surge created by the eruption's water displacement.

This combination meant tsunami warning centers did not detect the initial wave as they are programmed to detect tsunamis based on water displacements rather than atmospheric pressure waves.

The research team also found that the January event was among very few tsunamis powerful enough to travel around the globe -- it was recorded in all world's oceans and large seas from Japan and the United States' western seaboard in the North Pacific Ocean to the coasts within the Mediterranean Sea.

Separate research led by the University of Bath atmospheric physicist Dr Corwin Wright published in June found that the Tonga eruption triggered atmospheric gravity waves that reached the edge of space.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If I had to choose 10 words to describe Encinitas, it would be (in no particular order):

1. flower fields
2. cycling
3. the Cardiff Kook
4. Swamis temple
5. surfing
6. taco shops
7. yoga
8. Coté Brothers
9. La Paloma
10. dive bars

And if I had to squeeze in an 11th, it would be... wine? Seems as though the OG 3rd Corner Wine Shop & Bistro in the Lumberyard has been getting some company lately. If you haven't been to the new back patio of Good On Ya, do so. And if you're in Leucadia, take some time to unwind at Mrkt Space (yes, I spelled that correctly). And for those of you who buy wine in bulk, let me introduce you to Total Wine & More on El Camino Real (next to Target). And the beauty of this place? They have wine 'sampling stations' on weekend evenings. (For those of you over 40, you'll know how awesome this is). And new to the block? Little Victory Wine Market. Opened recently by fellow surfer Jeremy Simpson and his wife Kirsten Potenza, it's the perfect place to grab a bottle of rose' and a couple snacks on your way to enjoy the sunset. Get the 411 on their new location, only at the North County Surf blog! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Hurricane Fiona unfortunately devastated Puerto Rico the past few days with over 20" of rain and Category 1 winds of 85 mph which left a majority of the island without power- and continues to do so even though the storm has left. Fiona now sits off Bermuda with winds in excess of 130 mph and is headed towards Canada- which if it makes landfall- could be the strongest hurricane on record to hit the country with winds over 100 mph. In more peaceful times, here's what Nova Scotia looks like when storms stay offshore. Here's hoping that's the case again later this week. 

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

State Of The Art

Land Baron

Doing My Part To Reduce, Re-use, Recycle By Wearing Boardshorts Everyday

North County New Business News: Life's Little Victories

You know what I like? Life's little victories. Like taking a leap of faith and leaving your job because you want to follow your passion. And opening your own gourmet market in downtown Encinitas isn't a little victory- it's a big achievement. Especially one that blends naturally made wines, food like cured meats & cheese or pasta, and home goods to carry these items to your local park or beach to enjoy.

Located at 960 S. Coast Hwy 101 in Encinitas, Little Victory Wine Market was founded by husband and wife team Jeremy Simpson (a fellow surfer) and Kirsten Potenza. Their idea for the store was simple- that small is better; "when we scrape away our modern lives, there is truly nothing better than time spent with family, friends and neighbors, alongside a thoughtful meal and the perfect glass of wine". All of which you can get at their new location.

Jeremy is the former Beverage Director at Michelin starred Jeune et Jolie and lead the beverage programs of many notable restaurants in Los Angeles such as Bestia and Bar Calo. Kirsten, who designed the space and curated the market selections, is the CEO and founder of POUND Rockout Workout, a fitness and wellness company. Little Victory is truly a family owned and operated business, with Kirsten’s sister and brother in law, Korin and Nick, teaming up alongside Jeremy and Kirsten as business partners while David Potenza, the father of the Potenza sisters, handmade nearly everything in the shop at his studio in San Francisco.

In regards to what you can find at their market, there is a large assortment of wines of course, which are made naturally, from California and abroad. The wines are made with minimal intervention from both the new and old world and they carry emerging and exciting wine producers. Jeremy and Kirsten celebrate winemakers who treat their grapes and vineyards with care, intermingling organic and biodynamic, regenerative, and other sustainable farming practices with thoughtful winemaking techniques such as the use of wild yeasts, little to no sulfur additions, and zero filtration.  

For food, the store offers a small selection of cured meats, cheeses, tinned fish and locally sourced products and homemade goods. From tinned octopus and handmade jams to small production olive oils and California grown tomato sauces, each product will enhance your experience of dining, drinking, and enjoying life. And if you're not a huge wine aficionado, don't despair, I even spotted a few craft beers in their refrigerated area.

One question I overheard a customer ask was if they'll have wine tasting. Once their tasting license is approved (which may be in the near future), you'll be able to sample on site. They also have a space towards the back of their store which could be used for wine-pairing dinners and other events.

So the next time you're in downtown Encinitas and need to pick up a few things for your next dinner or need that perfect bottle of wine- stop by Little Victory Wine Market and support your community! 

THE Surf Report

Don't Fall For Fall!

SURF:

I think summer has given up. After the brutal heat wave and tropical storm conditions earlier in the month, Mother Nature is ready for fall. Air temps have dropped from 90 to 70, water temps are back to normal in the high 60's, the Pacific NW and Rockies are getting snow, and we have NW swell in our near future. But let's not give up on those southern hemi swells just yet as we technically do have a few more days of summer left. 

For Friday, we've got a small but fun SW filling in and peaking Saturday for chest high surf. We also have a small NW windswell joining the party and we'll see shoulder high sets late Saturday into Sunday morning. The only fly in the ointment is a weak cold front moving by to our N on Saturday/Sunday and it may kick up the SW winds. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:34 AM sunrise  
• 6:52 PM sunset  

• Our crazy water temps have stabilized and we're in the high 60's finally.

• And tides don't move much this weekend:
  • 3' at sunrise
  • 4.5' after lunch
  • and down to 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Monday starts off with a continuation of the SW as well as new NW groundswell. Look for shoulder high+ surf as we head into Tuesday. We also may have another cold front move by to the N so winds may be an issue again. If not- I'll turn on the Emergency Boardriding System. 

Behind that is a good SW forming today off Antarctica that will bring head high surf next weekend. 

And behind that is a smaller storm, aiming to give us chest high sets around the 26th. As far as the tropics go, we have a couple systems trying to form this weekend off Mainland Mexico. Most models have them running aground in Mainland or even Cabo, so it's still too early to tell if we'll see surf from them here. 

WEATHER:

Fall is right on track as we have a couple cold fronts moving by to the N this weekend and early next week. We won't see any rain from them down here, but we will have a few more clouds and breezy conditions. Look for temps in the mid-60's this weekend and 70 early next week (brrrrr)! High pressure should take control the 2nd half of next week and temps will climb slightly to the mid-70's. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

The Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe could be good with combo swell but I'm hoping the cold fronts up N don't kick up the SW winds down here...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As summer comes to a close, it's time to transition into fall or 'the autumnal equinox' (also called the fall equinox). One of the two equinoxes—the times of the year when the amount of daylight and nighttime hours are just about of equal length. The two equinoxes occur around March 20–21 and next week- September 22–23.

The equinoxes occur on these days, but an equinox is not the whole day—it is the moment when the sun is directly above Earth’s equator. The term equinox can also refer to the position of the sun at this moment, and the term autumnal equinox can refer to the position of the sun at the moment considered the autumnal equinox. This can also be called the autumnal point.

The autumnal equinox is traditionally considered to mark the start of fall, while the vernal equinox is considered to mark the start of spring. In the Northern Hemisphere, the autumnal equinox occurs in September and the vernal equinox occurs in March. In the Southern Hemisphere, it’s the reverse.

In contrast, a solstice is one of the two times of the year when the positioning and tilt of Earth relative to the sun results in the most amount of daylight time or the least amount of daylight time in a single day.

There are two solstices during the year: one that occurs around June 20–22 (usually June 20 or 21) and one that occurs around December 20–23 (usually December 21 or 22). In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice occurs in June and the winter solstice occurs in December. In the Southern Hemisphere, it’s the reverse.

In regards to sunrise and sunset, here's when San Diego will approximately see sunlight during the solstices and equinoxes:

• Spring: March 22: 6:58 AM, 6:58 PM
• Summer: June 22: 5:40 AM, 8:00 PM
• Fall: September 22: 6:40 AM, 6:40 PM 
• Winter: December 22: 6:50 AM, 4:50 PM 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

It's always summer somewhere. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Trendsetter
Singing The National Anthem At The Super Bowl
Never Worn A Wetsuit. Ever. 

THE Surf Report

 

Well, Well, Well. Look What The Cat Dragged In...

SURF:

For people who say that the weather in California is boing, well... they're right. But that's beside the point. This past week and the upcoming weekend will change all that. Then we get back to boring. But let's first talk about the surf this upcoming weekend. We've got some leftover SW in the water for Friday with chest high sets, along with a slight bump in NW windswell. So pretty boring- but the exciting (?) part will be the winds. 

As Tropical Storm Kay's low pressure approaches, it will interact with our prolonged high pressure and winds will trend offshore tomorrow in the 20-30 mph range with gusts to 40 mph+. Couple issues with the wind: 1. That might be too strong to paddle into waves and 2. Strong offshores will bring upwelling and a drop in our water temps. Goodbye 80 degree water! Another issue with Kay? Chance of thunderstorms along the coast Friday/Saturday. Not worth paddling out and getting electrocuted. For Saturday, winds will still be brisk but maybe only 20 mph with gusts to 30. As far as surf from Kay, the storm basically has been due SE of us (not good for SSW facing Southern California) and half of it has been over land. 

When Kay finally loses steam near our border, it's expected to drift W- away from land- and winds will still be around 40 mph in the center of the storm. That should be good enough for short interval shoulder high sets in northern SD and maybe head high+ in the OC. Sunday starts to see smaller chest high sets and more manageable winds. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:29 AM sunrise  
• 7:01 PM sunset  

• That was the craziest water temps I have EVER experienced. And I've been surfing for 38 years. We had 75 degrees on the weekend of August 24th. Then it dropped to 62 September 1st. Then Scripps hit 82 degrees yesterday. And this weekend after all the wind? Maybe back to 70 on Monday?! My guess is as good as yours.

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
• 2' at sunrise
• just over 5' late morning
• late afternoon 1'
• and up to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

If the weekend is too wild for you, then next week is right up your alley. Tropical Depression Kay will linger offshore for a couple days so Monday/Tuesday look to have leftover chest high sets from the SW and less tropical moisture overhead. 

By Wednesday, we have new southern hemi swell filling in for shoulder high sets. That should last into Friday. Behind that, the southern hemisphere remains active- but models show it being a bit disorganized and storms due S of us (not ideal) but we could see some more S swells around the 3rd week of September.

WEATHER:

Where do I start? The record temperatures of the past week will give way too... plague, locust, fire, and brimstone. Of cours that's not true, but it will feel a bit odd the next few days. Let's start with tonight as Tropical Storm Kay approaches. High pressure to our N will interact with Kay's low pressure to the S and the winds between the high and low will make a 'Santa Ana' type offshore flow late tonight through Saturday. And if you know anything about Santa Anas, expect warm temperatures as the winds blow over the mountains, compress, and warm up as they get to the coast. Some models even predict 80 mph winds in the mountains and up to 50 along the coast. Wow. And though the cloudy wet storm will be approaching, temps will be in the low 90's along the coast Friday with showers and possible thunderstorms late in the day. For Saturday, showers/t-storms continue and the winds subside slightly to 20 mph+. Temps will also drop to the high 70's. As far as Sunday/Monday go, Kay will be well offshore from us but tropical clouds may linger and winds will get back to normal around here with temps in the mid-70's. Further out, we finally see low pressure return to the Pacific NW and temps by mid-week should be low 70's at the beaches. And for those of you keeping score at home, the northern Rockies will see their first dusting of snow this weekend AND another round early next week. Get those snowboards waxed! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Oh boy- tough call here. Maybe early tomorrow IF... the strong offshores and thunderstorms don't kick in until late in the day. Or wait until Sunday when the winds and threat of thunderstorms subside, but leftover Kay swell lingers. OR... just wait until things get back to normal (boring) around here and surf fun SW on Wednesday. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As Hurricane Kay was strengthening earlier this week and hugging the coast of Cabo, there was a lot of chatter about the potential storm hitting Southern California. There were 4 things working against it though:

1. Minimum water temps for a hurricane need to be 80 degrees and once it got to central Baja, temps dipped blow that.
2. The storm was brushing against the Baja Peninsula which was limiting the amount of moisture/energy it could gather from the ocean. 
3. The hot temperatures we've been experiencing in the western US was from a strong ridge of high pressure. That same high has kept Kay at bay. 
4. The chance of a hurricane or even a tropical storm for that matter hitting southern California is slim to none. 

While slim to none seems like it never would happen, it still opens the door to a small chance. So has a hurricane or tropical storm ever hit Southern California? Well actually they have. Here's the stats from NASA:

• The San Diego hurricane of 1858: This is the only tropical cyclone ever known to have affected California as a hurricane. Independent scholar Michael Chenoweth and researcher Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconstructed the storm in a paper published in 2004 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, using newspaper reports, daily weather observations by U.S. Army surgeons, ship observations and U.S. Coast Survey notebooks. The storm formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean in late September and intensified into an estimated Category 1 hurricane with highest winds of about 85 miles per hour (74 knots). By Oct. 2, its untypical north-northeasterly course had steered it just off the coast of San Diego, where cooler waters and strong wind shear weakened it slightly. Luckily, just before making landfall, the storm made a turn to the west-northwest, and then dissipated near Santa Catalina Island. Despite the near miss, instrument records in San Diego indicate the area experienced hurricane or near-hurricane force winds of approximately 75 mph (65 knots), heavy rain and considerable property damage. Heavy rainfall was also reported in San Pedro, Los Angeles and Visalia — up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) in places. There were few reports of significant winds in the Los Angeles region, however. The researchers reported that based upon historical records and modeling results, such a storm can be expected in the San Diego area about every 200 years, most likely during an El Nino event.

• The Tropical Cyclones of the El Nino of 1938-39: In Sept. 1939, just weeks after "The Wizard of Oz" premiered at movie theaters, Southern Californians may have thought they were in Kansas as well, as the first of four tropical cyclones affected the region during the El Nino of 1938-39. The first two storms – remnants of hurricanes – tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Southern California: up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) for the first storm and up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) for the second. A third storm dissipated in southern Baja California but brought up to 3 inches (8 centimeters) of rain to parts of the Southland. Then, on Sept. 25, an unnamed storm made landfall near San Pedro with winds near 50 mph (43 knots), becoming the only tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in Southern California as a tropical storm in recorded history. In addition to the winds, the storm brought up to 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain to the Los Angeles basin and as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain to the surrounding mountains. The storm caused heavy flooding and killed at least 45 people, mostly at sea. Low-lying coastal regions from Malibu to Huntington Beach were flooded, and thousands of people were stranded in their homes. There was heavy street flooding — up to 3 feet (1 meter) in places. Ten homes were washed away by waves in Belmont Shore. There was significant agricultural damage. The pier at Point Mugu was destroyed. There was significant disruption of communications throughout the region. The fact that the storm came on suddenly, leaving many people unprepared, led to the establishment of a Southern California forecast office for the United States Weather Bureau in 1940.

• Hurricane Kathleen: In mid-September of 1976, during an El Nino year, Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California and moved into California and Arizona, still at tropical storm strength. Sustained winds of 57 mph (91 kilometers per hour) were reported in Yuma, Ariz. The storm brought 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain to Southern California's central and southern mountains. Ocotillo, Calif. suffered catastrophic damage, with 70 to 80 percent of the town destroyed. Twelve deaths were blamed on the storm in the United States. The Associated Press reported hundreds of homes were destroyed or damaged in the United States by Kathleen, which was described as a one-in-160-year event.

• Hurricane Linda: Sept. 1997, also an El Nino year, brought one colossal near-miss to Southern California with Hurricane Linda, the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record. This Category 5 hurricane at one point had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (161 knots). For a couple of nerve-wracking days, National Hurricane Center forecasters warned the storm could barrel into Southern California, most likely as a tropical storm. Fortunately, the storm turned westward away from land. Still, Linda brought significant rainfall across parts of Southern California and waves up to 18 feet (5.5 meters), and caused several million dollars in property damage.

• Hurricane Nora: Also in Sept. 1997, in the wake of Hurricane Linda, Hurricane Nora crossed into California and Arizona from Baja California as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rains to parts of southeast California and Arizona. The storm caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, especially to agriculture.

So you're saying there's a chance Kay could still hit us...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what hard offshores look like IF... the wind is only blowing 20-30 mph. NOT the 50 mph gusts expected tomorrow afternoon! 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Heroic
#6,983,452,891 In Line For The Monarchy
If Baseball Players Wear Ball Caps, What Do Surfers Wear? White Caps! I'll Be Here All Week. Make Sure To Tip Your Waitress.