THE Surf Report- Lite

Quick like a fox.

SURF:
Gotta make it a quick one tonight. On surfari the next few days and only got time for a quick report. Ok, enough of the small talk, here goes:

Had some fun surf on Xmas and a new NW showed up today for shoulder high sets at best spots in SD. That holds into the AM then fades through the weekend. Weather will be nice and water temps hold in the high 50’s.

The only real thrill this weekend is the tides- about 7’ at sunset and almost -2’ mid-afternoon, then it goes back up slightly to 1’ at sunset. Want cheap thrills? Head on over to your local tide pools this weekend to see the exposed sea life. Make sure not to disturb them though and tread lightly! And keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

No real surf this weekend will lead to an increase in NW Tuesday afternoon. Look for chest high sets that build to shoulder high sets on Wednesday. That holds through Thursday as another reinforcement from the NW arrives.

We get a slight break next weekend then more shoulder high NW (and showers?) late next Sunday. Hopefully the storm door is finally opening and we’ll see much needed rain and bigger surf!

WEATHER:

Models earlier this week hinted at rain on New Year’s Day but that’s been pushed back to MAYBE light showers the 2nd half of next week. In the meantime, look for sunny skies tomorrow then slightly cooler temps this weekend and a return of low clouds. Monday through Wednesday rebounds with sunny skies again as high pressure builds slightly and temps around 70 at the beaches. THEN… maybe some showers next weekend. It has to start sometime, right?

BEST BET:
Tomorrow morning with fun NW and clean conditions or next Wednesday with new NW (before the supposed showers arrive on Thursday).

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Thanks to our friends at the National Weather Service, here’s what real weather looks like on This Day In History!...

2004: Los Angeles received 5.55 inches of rain, the most on record for any
December day and the third wettest day since records began in 1877.

1991: Back to back storms that started on 12/27 and ended on 12/29 dropped two
to seven inches of rainfall at lower elevations. Flooding of low lying areas, mud
slides, and closed highways resulted.

1988: A week of subfreezing temperatures hit Southern California starting on
12/24 and ending on 12/30. On 12/27 it was coldest, with most valleys down in the
20s, Big Bear Lake dropped to -2°, and Cuyamaca fell to 5°. Five died as a result
of the cold.

1980: It was 87° in Borrego Springs, the highest temperature on record for
December. This also occurred consecutively on 12/6, 12/7, and 12/8/1989.

1971: A series of wet storms hit the region during this week starting on 12/22 and
ending on this day. 19.44 inches fell in Lake Arrowhead, 15.26 inches in Lytle
Creek, 12.31 inches in Big Bear Lake, 7.49 inches in Palomar Mountain, 5.45
inches in San Bernardino, 4.98 inches in Santa Ana, 3.92 inches in Redlands, 3.04
inches in Riverside, 2.28 inches in San Diego, 1.24 inches in Palm Springs, and
1.02 inches in Victorville. Extensive street flooding occurred across the region.
This day marked the start of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of
measurable precipitation in Victorville, which ended on 12/28. This also occurred
on 2/18-24/2005, 1/13-19/1993, and 2/14-20/1980. These heavy storms started out
warm on previous days, but then turned colder on 12/26 to this day. The three day
snowfall was up to two feet deep at Lake Arrowhead, 20 inches at Palomar
Mountain, 15 inches at Big Bear Lake, 13 inches at Idyllwild, and six inches at
Cuyamaca. Snow closed the Morongo Pass at Yucca Valley for a time.

1891: A period of very cold weather started on 12/23 and ended on 12/30. San
Diego pools had ice 0.5 inch thick on the surface and ice one inch thick formed on
oranges on trees in Mission Valley.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Indo is back on the ‘CT schedule for the new year. So 2018 in my book is already headed in the right direction. My resolution is to make the tour, win Keramas, and then me and Mick are going to wing on over to London and jam with the Stones! For more great shots to get you hyped on 2018, check out Bryce Lowe-White’s work here. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Sensational
Just Found Out We’re Having Baby New Year!
Inventor of Stoke

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Happy Hollowdays!

SURF:
Happy Hollowdays everybody! ‘Tis the season for fun surf, clean conditions, and no rain.

Got a little surf last weekend, not much early in the week, then a slight uptick today from the NW. That little bump will fade through the weekend; look for waist high+ surf on Friday and waist high on Saturday/Sunday. Not much going on this weekend unfortunately- but don’t fret- Santa’s coming next week with stocking stuffers for everybody (more on that in the forecast below).

Water temps are high 50’s still and tides are around 3’ at sunrise, up to 5’ mid-morning, and down to -1’ at sunset.

FORECAST:

After a slow weekend, I’ve asked Santa to bring some fun NW on Christmas day because y’all have been so good this year. We’ll have waist to chest high waves (best in SD) Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon picks up again for slightly bigger chest high waves through Thursday. Forecast charts show the north Pacific staying active but we’ll be in-between storms next weekend and Saturday/Sunday may be small. Net shot of surf may be New Year’s Day.

WEATHER:

Wasn’t that exciting last night! Rain! Or technically it was showers. But still- water falling from the sky! So exciting. The showers were hit and miss across Southern California- some locations received nothing while Del Mar received a whopping 0.15”. So basically most spots in the area have received 0.05”-0.15” this season, while we should be at 2”-3” at this point. That’s the 2nd driest start to our ‘rainy’ season (October-December) on record. For the weekend we’ll have temps around 70 at the beaches and the nights should be chilly with some spots getting to the low 30’s. A weak front moves by to the N on Xmas and our temps drop slightly with a few clouds. It looks like no white/wet Christmas for us. Again. The remainder of the week looks sunny and mild. Long range models hint at high pressure finally breaking down the 1st week of January and storms trying to get into Southern California around the 5th of January. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

BEST BET:
Late Wednesday/early Thursday with fun NW and clean conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you’ve probably heard me say before: What’s the only job in the world where you can constantly be wrong but still be employed? A Meterologist! In all seriousness though, if we could predict the future, we’d all be the Oracle of Ohama and stashing billions in offshore accounts. But alas we’re not so we have to keep our 9-5’s. Weather forecasting though has gotten exponentially better over the years. What was once considered a minor miracle to get the forecast right 24 hours in advance, is now as simple as forecasting it a week out. Speaking of predicting the weather more than a week out, the Climate Prediction Center, which is overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration, puts out forecasts for 2 weeks in the future, 1 month, and seasonally (i.e. 3 months). In case you’re wondering, La Nina has taken hold and we’re due for above average temperatures in the near future and below average rainfall (like you didn’t know that already) through March.

But what about REALLY long term weather forecasts? Like this century? Well, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) issued a Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) recently which serves as Volume I of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) (you getting all this?) and describes current trends in the climate globally and for the United States, and projects trends in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and Arctic sea ice for the remainder of this century. So if you’re going to live until the end of this century and party like it’s 2099 (R.I.P. Prince), what trends are we seeing? The findings include:

Global and U.S. Temperatures Will Continue to Rise:
• Based on the findings that the annual average temperature for the globe and the contiguous United States has increased 1.8°F from 1901 to 2016.
• Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the globe occurred in the last 17 years; the last three years were the warmest.

Variability in Temperature and Precipitation is Increasing:
• Heavy precipitation has increased in intensity and frequency across most parts of the United States since 1901, though there are important regional differences.
• Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s.
• Cold temperatures and cold waves have decreased since the early 1900s.
• Annual trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States.

Ocean Temperatures are Warming and an Increase in Sea Level Will Continue:
• Global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900.
• Global average sea level is expected to rise by several inches in the next 15 years.

Temperature Increases in Alaska and Across the Arctic are Greater than the Rest of the Globe Unfortunately:
• Annual average near-surface air temperature in Alaska and across the Arctic has increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature.
• Since the early 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has decreased between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent per decade, has become thinner by between 4.3 and 7.5 feet, and on average the season of melting lasts 15 more days per year.

So there's your forecast for the rest of the century: Temperatures are rising, extreme weather is becoming more frequent, ocean temps and sea levels are rising, and the Arctic is getting warmer and melting. No need to worry though; Musk and Bezos will have us living on Mars in no time.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If I could wrap this up and put it under the tree for you, I would. But I can’t. So just sit back by the fire with a glass of eggnog and enjoy from a distance.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Harbinger
Still Believe (Not In Santa But Rather The Chargers Are Coming Back To SD)
Was Gary Elkerton’s Little Known Sidekick ‘Diddy Kong’

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Technically it’s not winter…

SURF:

Technically it’s not winter. So I’m not really worried it hasn’t rained in December (or March through November for that matter). Or should I worry? Regardless, as long as the fire weather stays away, I’m fine with the glassy conditions all day and shoulder high surf. 

For Friday, the NW picks up slightly for head high sets and that peaks Saturday with overhead sets. We do though have a weak front moving through Saturday afternoon- the wind will finally turn onshore- so the surf may be a little junky late Saturday/Sunday morning. All in all some fun surf this weekend with nice conditions (except for the potential wind late Saturday). 

Water temps are high 50’s and tides will have a big switch- about 6’ at sunrise and down quickly to -1’ in the late afternoon. That means the tide will drop 1’ an hour. Wow. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

The quick shot of NW windswell/groundswell late Saturday/early Sunday will drop pretty quick on Monday to the waist high+ range and that holds most of the week. 

Late Thursday we get another shot of head high+ NW and the onshore winds may return from another weak front passing by to the N (more on that below). That holds into Friday. After that, models don’t show anything that impressive but that’s a long way out and anything can happen between now and the end of the month. 

WEATHER:

Not sure what to tell you here. We’ve got great weather again tomorrow- and maybe a slight shot of fire weather inland (i.e. light offshores and low humidities). As mentioned above, there’s a weak front moving through late Saturday/early Sunday which will finally turn the winds onshore and give us a slight chance of sprinkles. Don’t get your hopes up though. High pressure should build behind it and warm weather/clean conditions will prevail again. As the NW swell moves into our area on Thursday, we should  have another weak front move through late Thursday. As that exits the region next week, strong Santa Ana offshore winds may return for the Xmas weekend. So don’t count on a white Xmas, a wet Xmas, but rather a windy (and hot) Xmas. Looks like we may not receive any rain this December. Thanks for nothing La Nina.  

BEST BET:

Tomorrow with fun NW and clean conditions or early Saturday before the wind kicks in.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I had a friend ask me about last week’s THE Surf Report, in particular the NEWS section and the stubborn high pressure we’ve had this month. He asked what causes high pressure/low pressure and how they interact with each other. I usually don’t take special requests (namely because no one asks me), so here goes my attempt at being a professor:

As you know by now, high pressure is generally associated with nice weather, while low pressure is generally associated with cloudy, rainy, or snowy weather. But why? (Remember to raise your hand next time). Basically, air cools as it rises, which can cause water vapor in the air to condense into liquid water droplets, (forming everything from fog to a full blown hurricane). On the other hand, sinking air is associated with warming and drying conditions. So to put it simply, rising air = cooler/condensing and sinking air = warmer/drying. So what does this have to do with high and low pressure? Well, high pressure is associated with sinking air, and low pressure is associated with rising air. The airflow (due to the Earth’s rotation and friction) is directed slightly inward toward the low pressure center, and slightly outward away from the high pressure center. The slightly inward moving air in low pressure causes air to converge and since it can’t move downward due to the surface, the air is forced upward, leading to condensation and precipitation. This is why the weather with low pressure is often unsettled - there are usually weather fronts associated with these depressions. The opposite occurs with high pressure. Air is moving away from the high pressure center at the surface, so as a result, air from above must sink to take its place. This usually leads to light winds and settled weather conditions. The surface flow is accompanied by the opposite behavior at upper levels of the atmosphere. On a side note, low pressure systems circulate counter-clockwise and high pressure systems circulate clockwise.

Of course this is the simplified version of low and high pressure. Our current high pressure has had some windy days (with no rain of course) and not all low pressure causes condensation, but hopefully this gives you a general overview to help you understand our awesome world of weather.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I love dissecting surf pics. Like this juicy round barrel. That’s being fed by a double up. And no one’s out. Basically V-Land without the stink eye!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Timeless

Trying Really Hard To Be Good For Santa

World’s Most Accurate Surf Forecaster* (*J.D. Power & Associates)

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Not a big fan of wind.

SURF:
I’m not a fan of wind. Don’t get me wrong- we wouldn’t have waves if there wasn’t wind (scratch that thought- Kelly already figured that one out). But in the true sense of the word ‘wind’, it’s usually a hindrance, not a help.  Like a 6’ groundswell hitting the canyon at Black’s. BUT… there’s a 10 mph S wind on it. Or San Francisco and it’s abundance of large surf- but the howling N wind pretty much blows it to shreads.

Or this week with fun little waves being groomed perfectly by offshore winds! Which happen to set Southern California on fire. So let me be the first to say- I don’t like wind. Glassy conditions are my new favorite. On that note, we had a little bit of combo swell today with hard offshore winds as our friends in Ventura, LA, and Oceanside scrambled for cover. The high pressure responsible for the strong winds has also blocked storms from getting close to California. The result is a lack of rain and big surf. As the storms form off Japan, they’ll make it all the way to Hawaii before hitting high pressure off our coast and fall apart.

Good news is that we have waist to chest high NW arriving tomorrow afternoon. Bad news is that it would have been twice as big if our high pressure wasn’t in the way. We will also have a little leftover SW in the water too. The NW will hang around this weekend while the SW dies. All in all look for fun little waves and clean conditions as the winds stay mostly offshore. Water temps have dropped like a rock due to the offshore winds/upwelling (another reason I don’t like wind) and are in high 50’s.

And tides this weekend are about 2.5’ at sunrise, up to 4.5’ after lunch, and down to 2.5’ again at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:
Clean conditions look to be in place most of next week as we get pulses of NW every few days.

Next stop on the wave train is Tuesday afternoon as shoulder high sets arrive and hold into Wednesday.

After that we may have a good swell (and better if high pressure finally breaks down) around Friday the 15th with overhead WNW waves. Forecast charts show the N Pacific taking a breather after that so the next significant swell may not be until the 3rd week of December.

WEATHER:

If you didn’t read my rant above about wind, I’ll make it quick: High pressure is anchored over the western United States and it’s blocking our storms from giving us rain and big surf. Look for more offshore winds this weekend- slightly lower in strength than what we had today- most likely in the 10-15 mph range- and sunny skies. Winds may continue to decrease all next week which would be good for the fire crews- and glassy conditions for us. A win-win. Temps will hover around 70. The sun has been nice but I’m ready for a white Xmas.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with new small NW and leftover SW and offshore winds. Or Wednesday with new NW and glassy conditions. Or next Friday with slightly larger NW and potentially clean conditions still…

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

All the talk this week has been about the Santa Ana wind conditions and the wildfire threat. Living in Southern California, we’ve grown to expect this in the fall. Just not so far into the fall- like the beginning of winter. Now of course there are exceptions to every rule- like the May 2014 San Diego County wildfires which were a swarm of 20 fires that erupted during a severe Santa Ana wind event and were influenced by historic drought conditions and a heat wave. Our recent fires on the other hand have been influenced by a couple good winter rains which grew the vegetation on our hillsides. Sounds promising until we hit this year’s La Nina and the rains haven’t arrived to keep our vegetation green. Add in low humidities from this week’s Santa Ana and we’re ripe for disaster.

As explained by the Weather Channel yesterday, Los Angeles has seen just 0.11 inches of rainfall since Oct. 1, which ranks as the 11th-driest start to the wet season in 141 years of records, according to meteorologist Bob Henson. That equates to about 6 percent of the average rainfall in the city for the period spanning Oct. 1 to Dec. 4. Henson added that San Diego recorded a top-10 driest November with a measly 0.02 inches of rain. That's also its total for the entire wet season, which began Oct. 1. Just how little is 0.02”? As little as it sounds. Might as well say 0.00”. And the last significant rain we received was 0.50” back in late February and spotty showers in March. So if we don’t receive at least some showers by the end of December (which we’re on track to do), we will have gone 9 months without a soaking. That spells trouble.

Northern California has fared better thanks to some early-season storminess. Downtown San Francisco had received 65 percent of its average precipitation for Oct. 1 to Dec. 4, and Sacramento had picked up 68 percent of its average rainfall for that time. The early season storminess also helped squash the fire danger in Napa after the disastrous mid-October fires.

So what’s causing the prolonged sunny skies and offshore winds? A pronounced northward bulge in the jet stream over western North America has been in place and will not erode away anytime soon. When this type of weather pattern sets up and persists, it deflects the storm track northward, leaving California bone dry. It was a weather pattern like this one that led to a multi-year drought in the state that was finally extinguished last winter. Whether this pattern remains a persistent feature through the rest of winter remains to be seen, but for now, conditions will remain dry through the first half of December.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

2017 has seen a lot of right handers for the PIC OF THE WEEK and I apologize to all my goofyfoot friends. So here’s a grinding left to close out the year on a good note for all the surfers who put their right foot forward.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Reaping The Benefits
Porg Smuggler
Going To Name My Next Kid Either Aleutian Or Chubasco

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Not taking it for granted.

SURF:
I’m definitely grateful for the lack of wind we’ve had lately and the fun surf. I know we need the rain but I’ll take clean conditions any day.

This past week we had some good NW (once the wind backed off Monday) and the crowds have been manageable. Today new NW peaked with head high sets and we’ll still have chest to shoulder high waves tomorrow.

We get a small reinforcement from the NW on Saturday afternoon for shoulder high sets again (better in SD) and that lasts into Sunday morning.

Water temps are hovering around 60 and tides this weekend are a mess; 6’ at sunrise, down to -1’ after lunch, and up to 2’ at sunset.

FORECAST:
The Aleutians are still active and we have more NW headed our way.

First up is a shot of windswell/groundswell on Monday for head high+ surf as a cold front moves by to the N.

We also have smaller waist high+ SW underneath the bigger NW arriving on Monday but it will be lost in the shorter period NW.

After that, we have more late season chest high sets from the SW around the 9th.

And right on it’s heels is more NW for head high+ waves around the 10th. And forecast charts show more good NW after that…

WEATHER:

Lots of awesome sunsets and no rain in sight. As mentioned above, we have nice weather this weekend then a weak cold front moves by to the N on Monday. We’ll just see more clouds and breezy conditions- but no showers. After that, high pressure is forcasted to set up and we could have a moderate to strong Santa Ana offshore wind event. With the lack of rain, I hope not. Don’t need any fires around here.  If anything changes between now and then, make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Saturday with nice conditions again and fun NW or next weekend with NW/SW combo and offshore winds potentially.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you know, La Nina conditions set up in the equatorial Pacific this summer and it effectively shut down our hurricane surf for the West Coast. What does that mean on the opposite side of the US? The opposite of course- one heck of a hurricane season. Here’s the official report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

Today marks the official end of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which matched NOAA’s seasonal predictions for being extremely active. The season produced 17 named storms of which 10 became hurricanes including six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) – including the first two major hurricanes to hit the continental U.S. in 12 years.

Based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of the storms during the season and is used to classify the strength of the entire hurricane season, 2017 was the seventh most active season in the historical record dating to 1851 and was the most active season since 2005.

This year, three devastating major hurricanes made landfall (Harvey in Texas; Irma in the Caribbean and southeastern U.S.; and Maria in the Caribbean and Puerto Rico). Harvey was also the first major hurricane to hit the U.S. since Wilma struck Florida in October 2005. Additionally, four other storms hit the U.S., including Cindy in Texas, Emily and Phillipe in Florida, and Nate in Mississippi.

“This was a hurricane season that wouldn’t quit,” said retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “The season started early with a storm in April and the peak of the season featured an onslaught of ten successive hurricanes. NOAA forecasters rose to this challenge to keep emergency officials and the public aware of anticipated hazards.”

“In six short months, the next hurricane season will be upon us,” added Gallaudet. “This is a good time to review and strengthen your preparedness plans at home as we continue to build a Weather-Ready Nation.”

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will provide its initial seasonal outlook in May.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

What a reef break should look like.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Mind-boggling
Harry’s Best Man
Shaping Organic Surfboards; Surf On It, Then Eat It