THE Surf Report- Early Edition

When it rains, it... well, you know the rest. 

SURF:

Wow. Winter hit 3 weeks early today. Gusty 30 mph+ winds, over an inch of rain, and 10' storm surf. Love it! If you've read THE Surf Report over the years, you know I'm not a big fan of boring fog- either it has to be sunny beach weather or batten down the hatches. Looks like I got my wish today with the latter. As far as the surf goes, we haven't had a 'real' rain in about 8 months so the water is REALLY dirty unfortunately and it's probably best to stay out until at least Sunday evening if you dare- or Monday. Not that it's going to be good anyway. 

Currently Point Conception is 20' tonight and down here tomorrow we'll see 10'+ surf from the WNW and strong NW winds. Saturday has sunny skies in the AM and smaller surf but another cold front will sleep through late in the day and early Sunday. Behind that front will be more head high+ WNW windy surf. Not worth getting sick over. Water temps are still mid-60's and tides the next few days are around 4' at breakfast and down to 1' mid-day and up again to 4' at sunset. 

FORECAST:

Early in the workweek starts off slow with only waist high WNW/SW and clean conditions. 

But forecast models show a good storm taking shape this weekend that should give us head high WNW starting late Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning. On it's heels is slightly bigger storm on the charts early next week which could give us well overhead WNW again next Saturday. All the while, storms next week (see below) may impact the quality of the surf. Plan accordingly.

WEATHER:

Nothin' like a good ol' fashion storm to kick off our rainy season. Most spots along the coast received 1" while the mountains between here and LA received 2-3". Wind was also a factor with this storm as peak gusts along the coast were 40 mph and the mountains had gusts of 70 mph. With the 1/2" of rain we received earlier this month, spots in Southern California now sit between 1.5-2"; which is 100% of normal. Glad to see us on track for once. As mentioned above, we have another weak cold front coming through mid-day on Saturday for maybe 1/4" or rain. Sunday will be cool and breezy while Monday/Tuesday will have sunny skies. Charts show another storm headed our way for Wednesday which may actually take aim at northern Baja so we could only get a glancing blow and 1/2" of rain. But that could all change between now and then. So make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:

Tough call since all of our swells are accompanied by stormy conditions. But if you must paddle out, try Monday morning with a quickly dying WNW. Or late next Wednesday with new WNW swell and hopefully rain holding off until Thursday! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

What the heck is with wild weather happening on November 29th?! If you thought today's weather was interesting, check out what else happened on this date in history...

2006: Offshore winds gusted to 73 mph at Fremont Canyon (sustained 54 mph) and 58 mph at Ontario. Widespread property damage and power outages resulted from downed power lines, poles, and trees.

1997: A pocket of dense fog developed along Interstate 15 near Elsinore. In the span of 45 minutes, seven accidents involving 23 vehicles occurred along a half-mile stretch of the highway, which was closed for five hours.

1991: An intense winter storm swept into the region with strong winds and snowfall. Winds knocked out power to around 60,000 people in L.A. and San Diego. A 62 mph wind gust was reported in the San Fernando Valley. One woman was killed and 3 others were injured in a dust storm related traffic accident. Two hikers were trapped by snowfall on Mt. Baldy for 43 hours, where they survived estimated wind chills as lows as -35⁰F.

1976: It was 32° in Borrego Springs, the earliest date in the season to record a freezing temperature

1975: The first winter storm of season was a heavy one. It started on 11/28 and ended on this day. Up to two feet of snow fell in the San Bernardino Mountains, including 16 inches at Big Bear Lake. Twenty stranded campers were rescued after a few days. It was 17° at Palomar Mountain, the lowest temperature on record for November. This also occurred on 11/16/1964 and 11/16/1958. A 7.2 magnitude  earthquake hit Hawaii on this day, sending a tsunami that hit Santa Catalina Island. In San Diego a 2.4-foot maximum amplitude was measured. Some damage resulted.

1970: A series of storms struck the region from 11/25 to 11/30 following large destructive wildfires in the San Bernardino and San Gabriel Mountains earlier in the fall. 9.17 inches of precipitation fell in Lake Arrowhead, 7.22 inches in Lytle Creek, 5.11 inches in Big Bear Lake, 5.02 inches in Palomar Mountain, 3.56 inches in San Bernardino, 2.63 inches in Redlands, 2.51 inches in Santa Ana, and 2.05 inches in San Diego. Flooding inundated streets and highways in the Rancho Cucamonga area. At least 60 homes were damaged by floods and debris flows.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

As you know, the Hawaiian's measure the size of a wave from it's back. So if you hear it's 4-6' 'Hawaiian', it's really 8-12' for us mortals. On that note, how big would the Hawaiians say this wave was since it doesn't have a back? I guess it was flat out there that day?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Pioneer

Totally Over Social Media. Going To Start Communicating To My Fans Via Mental Telepathy

2014 World Skimboarding/Bodysurfing/Bodyboarding/Shortboard/Soft Top/Longboard/Big Wave/SUP Champion

THE Surf Report- Long Holiday Weekend Edition

Thankful for any amount of rain.

SURF:

We finally got back to normal conditions around here with tame winds, mild temperatures, and small but rideable surf the past few days.

For Thanksgiving, we have increasing WNW swell for chest high surf and maybe the odd shoulder high set by Friday. Unfortunately (as far as surf conditions are concerned), we have a weak cold front moving through the area on Thursday to put some bump on the surf. On Saturday we have more chest high surf from the WNW (and the odd shoulder high set again) and yet another cold front moving through. By Sunday the surf starts to drop and conditions improve. Long story short- some chest high surf this long holiday weekend but bumpy conditions.

Water temps are still mid-60's and tides the next few days are around 6' at breakfast and down to -1' late afternoon. 

FORECAST:
Early in the workweek starts off slow with only waist high WNW/SW and clean conditions.

But charts show a good storm taking shape this weekend that should give us head high+ WNW starting late Wednesday and lasting into Thursday morning.

On it's heels is a smaller but still fun WNW for shoulder high sets around the 1st of December. Looks like we're back on track for real surf. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we have a couple week fronts moving through this weekend to put some bump on our surf and rain in our reservoirs. Look for showers Thanksgiving morning and NW winds by dinner time. Friday morning starts off clean then another weak front comes through late Friday. We'll have NW winds again on Saturday and clean conditions by Sunday. When everything is said and done this weekend, we may get 1/3" to 1/2" of rain. Early next week looks to be your typical Southern California fall: sunny skies, offshores in the AM, and temps in the mid-60's. Long range charts though show the North Pacific kicking back into gear and maybe a shot of rain the 2nd half of next week. Stay tuned.

BEST BET:
Wednesday with solid WNW swell and good conditions (before that next cold front moves through?)

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Finally some wet weather here in California to help with our wildfires. A drier than normal summer and a late start to our rainy season helped fuel the Camp and Woolsey fires into one of the worst in history. Here's a deeper dive from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as to why those fires were worse than usual:

Multiple wildfires in northern and southern California have led to tragedy and devastation in November 2018, with an estimated 66 fatalities (as of November 16) and more than 10,000 lost structures. The fires also sent smoke plumes hundreds of miles away, degrading air quality throughout the state. It’s the second year in a row that the state has experienced massive, destructive wildfires.

Unlike locations East of the Mississippi, California’s precipitation is sharply seasonal, with hot, dry summers and wetter winters. A dry start to the current water year in October came on the heels of an even drier-than-average summer. The resulting dried grasses and vegetation provided plenty of fuel for wildfires to grow exponentially should a fire be lit. And in November, 2018, those wildfire powder kegs exploded in both northern and southern California. North of Sacramento, the Camp Fire burned an area of over 70,000 acres in less than a day starting on November 8, taking advantage of incredibly dry atmospheric and ground conditions while strong winds whipped the fire into a frenzy. As of November 14, the fire had burned over 138,000 acres of mostly non-forested land and was only 35% contained. The Camp Springs fire now has the dubious record of being both the most destructive and deadliest wildfire in modern history for California. In southern California, similarly hot, dry and windy conditions helped turn a fire into a raging conflagration in the hills north of Los Angeles. The Woolsey fire also started on November 8 and has burned almost 100,000 acres of mostly grass and shrubs and was 52% contained. The fire has impacted well-known communities north of Los Angeles including Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, and Thousand Oaks and has burned down over 500 structures as of November 14th. 

How was California primed for wildfires?

Statistically, the risk for wildfires in California in November is very low, with only areas north of Sacramento and across southern California at a small risk for wildfires bigger than 100 acres. This makes sense, as wildfire risk peaks in the hot, dry months of summer and then decreases as the chance of seasonal rain increases. Rains across California peak during the winter months, but on average, precipitation begins to pick up starting in October.

Summer 2018 was much warmer than average across the state—record warm in some places, especially at night—and in Northern California, precipitation ranged from below average to record dry. Precipitation across much of the state was less than 5 percent of average in September, and the summer dry signal extended into beginning of the fall wet season, with below-average precipitation in October as well.

With all the heat and dryness, the ground was dry to start November, with vegetation turned into excellent fire fuel. Then strong winds, including the Santa Ana winds in southern California, roared into town. A high pressure system with clockwise winds settled in to the east of California. This allowed winds to blow in from the east, moving down the coastal mountains of California. The winds then got funneled through natural channels in the mountains, gathering speed as they moved down in elevation. As the winds continued to drop in elevation, they compressed and warmed, drying the air even more.

These winds tend to peak during the winter months but occur during the fall as well. Normally, the wetter conditions during the winter rainy season mean these strong winds don’t act to whip up fires. The moistened grounds reduce the risk of fires even starting to begin with. But if rains are below-average and summer-baked ground remains dry, these winds can help rapidly spread fires even into winter. Both fires saw strong, dry winds blow in from the east as winds gusted to at least 40-50 mph. This rapidly spread the fires and made containment near impossible for firefighters.

Climate Change connection

According to the Climate Science Special Report as a part of the upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment, the number of large fires has increased from 1984-2011, especially over the western U.S.. These trends are likely from a combination of factors, including previous decades’ fire suppression policies and climate change. Research suggests that global warming will cause an increase in very large fires—greater than 50,000 acres—across the western United States by the middle of the century under both lower and higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In the previous U.S. National Climate Assessment, the authors noted that models forecast up to a 74% increase in burned areas in California by the end of the century in scenarios with high greenhouse gas emissions.

This makes sense as warming temperatures due to human-caused climate change will dry out vegetation even more, leaving additional kindling available for fires. To know if (or when) your town is under an increased risk for fire, head to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center for Fire Weather outlooks here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/

PIC OF THE WEEK:

One of the many things I'm thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
As American As Pumpkin Pie
Never Been Called A Turkey
Thankful For Surfing

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Blessing or a curse?

SURF:

Crazy Santa Ana winds this week were met by small S swell in SD county and fun surf for the OC. The older I get though, the more leery I am of Santa Ana winds due to the fire threat. Glad they're over! 

In regards to the small S swell, it's backing off tomorrow but as it does, more NW swell is filling in tonight. For Friday, look for chest high sets with shoulder high waves in SD. 

Saturday things start to wind down and by late Sunday we get another little boost from the WNW for waist to chest high surf and slightly bigger waves in SD. All in all a couple small swells this weekend. 

Water temps are still mid-60's and tides this weekend are around 5' at sunrise, down to 2' at lunch, and back up to 4' at sunset. 

FORECAST:

The WNW mentioned above for late Sunday will peak Monday with chest high sets. 

After that it goes quiet for most of the week. 

Charts show a small storm dropping from the Aleutians mid-week and it could give us shoulder high W swell around Black Friday- and maybe a shot at rain? So if we do get surf, it may be junky next weekend. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Looks like the Santa Ana winds are done for the time being and our clouds will start to thicken during the week. Look for the low clouds to return this weekend, temps near 70, and manageable winds. The storm track is finally starting to lower according to the forecast charts and we may get a shot of some beneficial rains the 2nd half of next week. Thanksgiving may be the earliest we get showers but more likely Friday/Saturday if the charts hold true. Onshore winds will also start to pick up so choose your sessions wisely next weekend. 

BEST BET:

Tomorrow with a little bit of SW/NW and fairly clean conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As a kid I used to love Santa Ana Winds. Sunny skies, warm air temperatures, and the offshore winds groomed the surf into perfection. But as I got older and started to study waves and weather, my opinion began to change. Waves of course are made by wind and on the flip side, waves are also destroyed by wind. With offshore winds, it's energy pushing against the surf generated by winds faraway. Another negative to Santa Ana type offshore winds is that they're created by high pressure anchored over Nevada which effectively blocks storms from getting close to us- stunting storm growth in the Pacific and pushing the much needed rain into the Pacific Northwest. But there are also beneficial offshore winds besides Santa Ana's. Like early in the morning around sunrise or after the passing of a cold front when it rained. Why are these good? Because they're short lived and moisture in our atmosphere is associated with them. Morning offshores are replaced by a moist sea breeze mid-morning. Or when a cold front moves through, it sometimes is preceded by wetting rains. The BAD offshores though- our Santa Ana winds- there is no moisture involved. Hence the nickname 'Devil Winds'. The Santa Ana's blow for days, off our dry land, and the sea breeze- if any- never materialize. But what exactly is the source of our Santa Ana winds and how do they form? Here's a quick guide with help from the L.A. Times:

Santa Ana winds are strong, extremely dry down-slope winds in Southern California and northern Baja California. They originate inland in desert regions and occur mainly in the fall, but can arise during other seasons. Most Santa Ana wind events are caused by high pressure in the Great Basin (i.e. central Nevada) and lower pressure off the coast. Air from areas of high pressure flow clockwise toward those of lower pressure, and the gradient, or difference, causes the intense winds. Air from areas of high pressure (over high ground inland) flows down toward sea level in Southern California. The sinking air heats up, loses moisture and speeds up, especially as it squeezes through canyons. This lowers relative humidity, dries out vegetation, and can fan any existing fires. Mountain ranges block winds in some areas while winds howl elsewhere. Winds seek openings through the mountains, much like water would. Canyons and passes provide narrow openings that accelerate the winds like a nozzle on a garden hose does to water, otherwise knows as the Venturi Effect. This accelerates the winds and can approach speeds of 60 MPH+; similar speeds to a tropical storm. We actually had a wind gust of 86 MPH on Tuesday at Sill Hill in the San Diego mountains. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Exhibit A: This is why people travel to find surf. 

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

King of My Castle

Thinking of Playing Overseas

Deciding if I Should Wear My Baggies, Boardshorts, Trunks, Boardies, or Swimsuit 

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Time to find a new hobby. 

SURF:

Not much surf the past few days but we did get rid of that pesky fog. Looks like the near future will give us sunny skies finally and a continuation of the small surf. High pressure is blocking the storms in the north Pacific and the south Pacific is shutting down for the winter, so the only real story is the Santa Ana winds this weekend. Look for knee to waist high surf with gusty offshore winds Friday morning. On Saturday the winds back off but will kick back in on Sunday. All in all some Santa Anas this weekend and tiny surf. 

Tides this weekend are 3.5' at sunrise, up to 5.5' mid-morning, and down to 0' at sunset. And water temps are still in the mid-60's (but may drop with all the offshore winds- beware)! 

FORECAST:

The south Pacific had one last gasp a few days ago and sent us waist high SW that should start to arrive late Monday. By Wednesday, best spots in far north county San Diego and the OC have chest high sets. 

On it's heels is WNW swell that's slated to take shape mid-week and arrive on our shores by Thursday the 15th. Look for chest high surf on Thursday and shoulder high sets next Friday. 

After that the entire Pacific goes into quiet mode and no surf is on tap for Thanksgiving week. I hope I'm wrong. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, Santa Ana winds will kick in here at the coast tomorrow morning for sunny skies early and gusts from the NE in the 15 mph range. For Saturday the winds should be calmer and on Sunday they're forecasted to kick back in again. Models are showing this type of weather (i.e. sunny, warm, and offshore) most of next week. Long range models also show mild weather and no rain until maybe the end of the month. When's that El Nino going to arrive?!

BEST BET:

Next Thursday/Friday with dying SW but building WNW for chest high+ surf. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

A few months ago I reported on the Great Pacific garbage patch (aka the Pacific trash vortex https://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-surf-report-early-edition_21.html). It’s a gyre of marine debris particles (i.e. trash) in the central North Pacific Ocean discovered in the mid-to-late 80’s. Unfortunately it's bigger than ever, covering an area almost 1 million square miles above Hawaii. So what exactly is this trash heap made up of? Mainly it's our good ol' friend plastic. Why? Plastic is everywhere: In your home, your office, your school — and of course our ocean. Among the top 10 kinds of trash picked up during the 2017 International Coastal Cleanup were food wrappers, beverage bottles, grocery bags, straws, and take out containers, all made of plastic. How did it all get there? Why is it a problem? What can we do? And why all these questions?! I'll let the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) explain:

The problem with plastic:

While it’s tough to say exactly how much plastic is in the ocean, scientists think there’s about 8 million metric tons of plastic making its way there every year. That’s the weight of nearly 90 aircraft carriers. These plastics come in many different forms. Just think about all the plastic items you use daily: the toothbrush you grab first thing in the morning, the container your lunch comes in, or the bottle you drink water from after your workout. All these things get used and, eventually, thrown out. Many plastic products are single-use items that are designed to be thrown out, like water bottles or take out containers. Commonly found plastics include cigarette butts, food wrappers, beverage bottles, straws, cups and plates, bottle caps, and single-use bags. These are used and discarded quickly. If this waste isn’t properly disposed of or managed, it can end up in the ocean. Unlike some other kinds of waste, plastic doesn’t decompose. That means plastic can stick around indefinitely, wreaking havoc on marine ecosystems. Some plastics float once they enter the ocean, though not all do. As the plastic is tossed around, much of it breaks into tiny pieces, called microplastics. The first thing that comes to mind for many people when they think of microplastics are the small beads found in some soaps and other personal care products. But microplastics also include bits of what were once larger items. Microfibers, shed from synthetic clothing or fishing nets, are another problematic form of microplastic. These fibers, beads, and microplastic fragments can all absorb harmful pollutants like pesticides, dyes, and flame retardants, only to later release them in the ocean.

What can you do?

There are many ways to keep plastic out of the ocean! Here are two strategies:

Reduce plastic use.

Think about all the plastic items you use every day. Can you count them all? Look around you. How many plastic things can you see? Being more aware of how and why you use the plastics that you do is the first step to reducing plastic use. Commit to changing your habits by reducing your use of disposable and single-use plastic items, reusing items and/or recycling them.

Participate in a cleanup.

Volunteer to pick up marine litter in your local community. Find a cleanup near you!

NOAA’s Marine Debris Program (MDP) works to understand how plastics — and other marine debris — get into our ocean, how they can be removed, and how they can be kept from polluting our marine environment in the future.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I think I found the next Trestles! Unfortunately it's all the way up in Alaska, the water is freezing (literally), Orcas are tougher (and smarter) than Great Whites, and it's missing my favorite food- Carl's Jr.- but other than that, I'm amping! For more cold water perfection, check out Chris Burkard's work here.

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Brilliant

Not Really A Beefcake- More Like Chicken Pot Pie

Been Surfing Since April 14th, 1984 (Seriously, That's The Exact Date)

THE Surf Report

Couldn't be happier. 

SURF:

If you've been reading THE Surf Report over the years, you'll know that I think it's the end of the world when we have a flat spell for a week and when we get surf like we did the past few days... life couldn't be better! 

Quite a run of surf we just had with good SW early in the week and great NW mid-week. Today the surf has backed off to the waist high range but conditions are clean. 

For tomorrow afternoon we get a little bump from the NW/SW for chest high sets. Nothing big but better than nothing. That lasts into Sunday morning. 

Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and tides this weekend are 5.5' at sunrise, down to 0.5' after lunch, and up again to 4' at sunset. And speaking of sunrise and sunset- don't forget it's Daylight Saving Time on Saturday night! So on Sunday, the sun will come up at 6 AM and set at 5PM. No more surfing after work but... you can finally crack it before work! 

FORECAST:

Not much headed our way in the near future. 

Models show a little storm in the Aleutians this weekend which may give us waist high+ NW by next Wednesday and chest high sets in SD. 

Along with that, forecast charts show Tropical Storm Xavier also taking shape (or is it Baby Hurricane Xavier) forming in the next few days which may send waist high S swell around the 7th also. Both storms aren't big so don't expect more than waist to chest high surf. 

Long range models don't show much from the N Pacific but the S Pacific shows a little activity; nothing in our sweet spot but best case scenario is to get more chest high SW swell towards the 13th. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

We've got nice weather in our foreseeable future as high pressure dominates the next couple of days. Look for weak offshore winds in the morning and highs in the afternoon around 75. A weak front moves by to the N on Sunday and we may get a return of low clouds/fog in the morning. By the afternoon though, we're back to sunny skies and temps around 70 at the beaches. High pressure should set up again the middle of next week and we're back to less clouds in the AM and more sunshine (I know, exciting, huh)? Long range models have been over-hyping everything this year; from waves to weather- and this morning's models for the weather is no exception- they're predicting rain next weekend! Not unusual since it will be almost mid-November by then- but seriously- our weather is amazing right now! Can't imagine real rain in the next 7 days. I'll believe it when I see it.

BEST BET:

Late Saturday/early Sunday with a little bit of SW/NW or next Wednesday with a touch of NW and maybe Baby Hurricane Xavier for more waist to chest high surf. Maybe.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Even though the weather is almost impossible to predict, there are some weather phenomenons that help give us a crystal ball into the future. Not always- but sometimes these indicators  are right. Like El Nino and La Nina. The general consensus is that El Nino gives us warmer/wetter weather and La Nina the opposite- colder and drier. Like last year's La Nina- our 'rainy' season is defined by the National Weather service from October 1st to September 30th the following year. So in the case of the rainy season we just had, it was from October 1st, 2017 to September 20th, 2018. Basically the bulk of our rain falls from December to March so it's just easier to keep track of our 'wet' season. So with that said, how did we fair with La Nina? Exactly what you thought:

• Santa Ana: 2.66". 20% of normal
• Oceanside: 5.68". 55% of normal
• San Diego: 3.34". 32% of normal

Ouch. So where does that rank in the last 50 years for San Diego? 2nd driest (only to 2002's 3.30"). As I mentioned above, weather is impossible to predict. After some dry seasons in our past, we rebound with above average rain the following season. Other seasons... we stay dry for a number of years. What's good for us though is that models are trending towards a slight El Nino this season- so hopefully we'll make up the deficit with slightly more than our 10" of rain we should expect to get. So now that we're just over a month into our current season, how are we looking so far? Well, with the couple early showers we received last month, we sit at around 0.50", which is 97% of normal- pretty much on track. We still have 11 months to go this season so keep your fingers crossed! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This wave is a mirage. All done with smoke and mirrors. Or Photoshop. Or just a figment of your imagination (what is a figment exactly)? Anyway, I'm pretty sure this isn't real. Right? Too good to be true? Not even worth looking at...

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Honorable

I Like To Party

World's Best Vegetarian Surfer (aka The Greatest Surfer Of All Thyme)