THE Surf Report

 

Aleutians vs. Antarctica

SURF:

Wasn't that a good time last weekend. I actually forgot how to surf overhead waves. Dodged a few sets, took a few on the head, finally got into a rhythm, and then it was like riding a bike again- if you were going downhill really fast. The surf is a bit tamer today but we have fun waves from the southern hemisphere showing up later tomorrow into Sunday. 

A pair of good late season storms formed last week and should give us chest high surf from the SW this weekend with better waves towards the OC. Models also show NW windswell from the outer waters filling in Saturday evening into early Sunday morning- so best combo spots could be shoulder high. Also of note, we could see a Santa Ana conditions on Sunday (which will kill the NW windswell) so get on it early! And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 7:03 AM sunrise 
• 6:02 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Around 65-67

• Big tide swings this weekend:
• about 4' at sunrise
• 6.5' just after 9 AM
• about -0.7' around 4 PM
• and back up to 1' at sunset

FORECAST:

Monday holds with some chest high sets from the SW towards the OC, then we get a reinforcement from Antarctica again on Tuesday. It most likely won't be as big as Saturday's combo swell, but we still could see chest high sets from the SW into Wednesday. 

After that, the Aleutians come to life later in the week and I'm hoping to see fun to good WNW swell by Sunday the 5th and into the following week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Nice weather Friday/Saturday (after the low clouds burn off)- then a warm up next week with Santa Ana winds possibly. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday/Saturday: More patchy fog and afternoon sun. Temps 67/60
• Sunday: Santa Anas kick in. Sunny skies and temps 70/55.
• Monday through Wedensday at least: More sun and low humidity. Temps 75/60.
• Will high pressure weaken slightly next weekend? Who knows. But most likely no rain yet. 

BEST BET:

• Saturday with fun SW and nice weather.
  
• Early Sunday with combo swell and offshore winds.
  
• Even late next weekend once the NW swells kick back in!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you know, Southern California had a less than stellar hurricane season due to the persistent NW winds blowing off our coast, resulting in a cold water 'barrier' blocking storms from reaching our swell window. But that doesn't mean the Pacific wasn't active when it came to cyclones. On the contrary- another category 3 or stronger hurricane this season would match a record for major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. As evident by Major Hurricane Otis this week devastating Acapulco, we can't get to winter fast enough. Here's the San Francisco Chronicle explaining how El Niño continues to fuel an intense Pacific hurricane season:

Hurricane Otis made landfall in Mexico on Tuesday night, rapidly intensifying to a category 5 hurricane, the strongest Pacific Ocean hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in modern history. Otis was the eighth major hurricane in the East Pacific in 2023. Another category 3 or stronger hurricane this season would match a record for major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Scientists say warmer than normal ocean temperatures — due to El Niño conditions and human-caused climate change — have fueled the region’s active hurricane season.

Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead for this year’s seasonal hurricane outlook, says atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed for hurricane development and growth in the eastern Pacific Ocean this year. “Along 10 to 15 degrees north, where these (hurricanes) have formed in the east Pacific, wind shear has been quite low,” Rosencrans said. “And that’s a traditional El Niño response.” Wind shear, which describes how winds change speed and direction in the atmosphere, is the kryptonite for hurricanes. Strong winds in the upper atmosphere rip apart the hurricane’s eye and prevent it from strengthening. The Pacific hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, averages eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. According to the Climate Prediction Center, Otis was the 10th east Pacific hurricane this season. 

Rosencrans says ocean temperatures have also been above normal this year. Hurricanes, which are fueled by tropical ocean temperatures in the 80s and 90s, are more likely to rapidly intensify as they encounter pockets of above-normal water temperatures. “El Niño changes the sea-surface temperatures,” Rosencrans said. “When I look at sea-surface temperature plots now in the last month, there’s only a small area of below normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, but everywhere near the coastline is now above normal.”

A 2013 study found that of the top 25 Mexican Pacific landfall events, 10 occurred during El Niño conditions, compared with just five during La Niña. In June and July, sea-surface temperatures off the west coast off Baja California were 1 to 1.5 degrees below normal, but temperatures have spiked since. In August, warm sea-surface temperatures aided Hurricane Hilary in maintaining hurricane strength within 200 miles of Southern California before weakening to a tropical storm. Hilary prompted the first-ever National Weather Service tropical storm hazards along the U.S. West Coast.

The active east Pacific hurricane season, including the unusual behavior of Hilary’s track and Otis’ strength, are realizations of what scientists have observed and projected due to the impacts of human-caused climate change. According to Susana Camargo, a professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a research institute in New York, Otis’ activity was in line with predicted hurricane behavior due to climate change: stronger hurricanes that intensify faster. “All of the characteristics of Otis fit that picture,” Camargo said.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

When I win the lottery, I'm going to sail around the world and discover new surf spots! But first- I need to learn how to sail. And the open ocean seems a bit terrifying. And that whole scurvy thing is a bit of a deterrent. Guess I'll save my money instead and just stick to Beacons and Fish 101. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Deluxe
My Life Is A Rom-Com
Pioneered The Short John & Booties Look

THE Surf Report

 

Change Is In The Air.

SURF:

So good to see swell this past week. I forgive you Winter/Spring/Summer 2023. 

As you probably know, solid WNW filled in today and most spots were overhead in northern SD with southern SD seeing 10' faces. And for you Maverick's fans out there, the iconic big wave spot had some 25'+ surf. For Friday, the WNW peaks early but we'll still see solid surf as it winds down through the day. 

On it's heels is a good SW filling in Saturday for shoulder high sets that lasts into Sunday. All in all, lots of good surf this weekend. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:58 AM sunrise 
• 6:08 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Hovering in the mid-60's.

• Odd tides this weekend- kind of wonky:
• about 3' at sunrise
• then 5' at 2pm on Saturday and 5' at 4pm Sunday.
• and down to 3' at sunset on Saturday and 4' at sunset Sunday.

FORECAST:

The Pacific is alive and that's good news for us. After the good combo swell this weekend, the weather turns iffy on Monday which gives us a shot of chest high NW wind/groundswell to go along with leftover smaller SW groundswell. 

After that, we have more SW groundswell headed our way for shoulder high sets in far N SD County and SD on Wednesday and then again Friday. Looks like we'll have small NW windswell too during the week to break up the southern lines. 

And behind that, the N Pacific looks to be on hiatus but we could see more activity off Antarctica and the Aleutians by the first week of November. On a side note, Major Hurricane Norma sits due S of Cabo today and will move up into the Gulf of California early next week, effectively barring us from any surf. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to click on the link below and follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

No major weather changes in the near future, but we most likely will be stuck with fall type weather in the short term along the coast. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday: More patchy fog and late afternoon sun. Temps 72/64.
• Saturday/Sunday: Low clouds in the AM/PM and partly sunny in the afternoons. Temps 69/65.
• Monday: Weak low pressure with a chance of drizzle/light showers. Temps 65/69.
• Most of next week is a toss up- some models show another weak low pressure, others show high pressure...

BEST BET:

This weekend with good combo swell or later next week with smaller but still good SW groundswell/NW windswell. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

THE Surf Report has talked a lot about El Nino and La Nina over the years- and rightfully so- it can make our surf feast or famine. In their simplest forms, La Nina in Southern California will give us drier weather, smaller surf, and colder water temps while it's counterpart El Nino will give us more rain, bigger surf, and warmer water temps. But as you know, predicting the future is tough as my history with the lottery will attest. We recently had a La Nina that was above average rain (and a 3 year La Nina event no less which is unheard of) and this year's El Nino looks to be a 'strong' event- but is it being influenced by the historically warm water temps across the globe? Let's break down each one. First up, our multi year La Nina:

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai'i (UH) at Manoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change. "The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920," said Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai'i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007-08, 2010-11, and 2020-22) did not follow this pattern.

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific. "Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events," said Wang. "Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts."

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming. The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

"Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources," Wang added. "The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead."

On the flip side, our current El Nino had cooler than average water temps along the southern California coast due to persistent N winds this year, and all models point to a strong event- but just how strong? Let's have NOAA explain:

El Niño is currently chugging along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world.

First, the numbers. Our primary metric for the growth of El Niño is the temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño-3.4 region, a box in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Specifically, the anomaly, the difference of this temperature from the long-term average (long-term = 1991–2020). (Why here? Several decades ago, this region was found to have the strongest relationship with tropical atmospheric changes.) In September, the Niño-3.4 Index was 1.6 °C (2.9 °F), according to the ERSSTv5, our most reliable sea surface temperature dataset.

El Niño is a coupled system, meaning the ocean and the tropical atmosphere are working together to continue and grow the El Niño event. The average air circulation pattern over the tropical Pacific, called the Walker circulation, brings rising air, clouds, and storms over the very warm water of the far western Pacific, west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere, descending air over the eastern Pacific, and the east-to-west surface winds called the trade winds. In the case of El Niño, the warmer-than-average surface water in the central-eastern Pacific leads to more rising air over that region, weakening the Walker circulation.

The atmospheric half of El Niño is clearly showing its stripes. All the signs of a weakened Walker circulation are present, including more rain and clouds over the central-eastern Pacific, slower trade winds and upper-level winds, and drier conditions in Indonesia and the far western Pacific. Taken collectively, the ocean surface and the atmospheric conditions tell us that El Niño will stick around for the next few months at least.

Since we’re sure El Niño will be operating into the winter, the next question is “how strong will it get?” Strength definitions, which usually also use the Niño-3.4 Index, are unofficial, since it’s not like an El Niño with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.5 °C is going to have noticeably different impacts than one with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.4 °C. However, as I mentioned above, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will affect global temperature and rain/snow patterns in expected ways. This is because a larger sea surface temperature change leads to a larger shift in the Walker circulation, making it more likely that El Niño will affect the jet stream and cause a cascade of global impacts.

The unofficial definition of a strong El Niño is a peak 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.5 °C. El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon, and that 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index (called the Oceanic Niño Index or ONI) is important for making sure that the oceanic and atmospheric changes persist long enough to affect global weather and climate. A peak ONI of 2.0 °C or more is considered “historically strong,” or “very strong.” We’ve only seen four of these in our historical record, dating back to 1950.

Forecasters give this event a high chance of qualifying as a strong event, based on our climate model predictions and the current conditions. “Hey wait,” you’re saying. “Isn’t the September Niño-3.4 Index already 1.6 °C?” And indeed it is, but the 3-month-average for July–September was 1.3 °C. That said, we have a 75% chance that the ONI will reach or exceed 1.5 °C in November­–January (typically the peak season).  We actually have a slightly higher chance, 83%, that we will reach that threshold in September-November, which is on our doorstep.

So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve see during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16. This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

One more thing- the temperature of the global oceans is still running way above average, with startling records in recent months. Whenever we see something really extraordinary, like the recent records, we want to be sure it’s not a data error. Checking two different datasets provides confirmation that this is a real feature. The extreme warmth in the global oceans means this El Niño is operating in a different world than earlier El Niño events. For example, the Atlantic hurricane season is often on the quieter side overall during El Niño, but this year has already seen an active season, with 18 named storms, as the very warm North Atlantic Ocean has provided lots of fuel.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you're an old timer in North County, you probably remember the Longboard Grotto in Leucadia and all the quirky items they sold. The building has since been brought up to code and changed hands a few times, but now it's a great collection of businesses called Coffee Coffee, Bing Surfboards, and the site of our next North County Board Meeting business mixer... Duck Foot Brewing! Longboard Grotto may be gone, but the quirkiness still lives in Duck Foot. If one word was to describe them, it would have to be... random? That word encompasses their brewing style, humor, and design style; you’ll get a sense of that when you see their beer names and cans. And if you haven't been to one of the NCBM Biz Mixers, it's a great way to connect our community to a local surf run company. Sponsored by our friends at Surfhouse, come on down Tuesday evening, October 24th at 6pm to hear Duck Foot's story, grab a drink, network, and have a bite. And as always with our October events, in the spirt of Halloween, wear your oddest/coolest/funkiest t-shirt and you may just walk away with a valuable prize (valuable being a loose term). Thanks for the support and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what my dreams look like. For more shots of inspiration, check out Nathan Lawerence's work here. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Agent Of Change
Tired Of Signing Autographs
Malibu AM, Bear Mountain PM

THE Surf Report

 

Emergency. Boardriding. System.

SURF:

Nice to see surf this week. The NW wind/groundswell and touch of smaller SW had most beaches in rideable conditions- which means A LOT considering how bad the past 10 months have been. For Friday into Saturday, both swells will be on their way out and we're left with chest high surf. 

Fortunately for us, it's short lived as new NW groundswell moves in on Sunday for chest high sets- and better towards SD. High pressure will also be in control by then so we should have sunny skies and temps in the low 70's. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:53 AM sunrise 
• 6:16 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Temps are fluctuating due to SW winds somedays- and NW others. For the time being, let's just say it's 65-67 around here.

• And not much for tides this weekend:
• about 3' at sunrise
• up to 5.5' mid-morning
• down to 0.5' late afternoon
• and back up to 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

The Emergency Boardriding System has been dusted off, recharged, and ready to go next week. Before I flip the switch though, let's start with an appetizer. 

More NW is headed our way on Tuesday, similar to Sunday's swell in the chest high range. And on that note... when it rains it pours. Not only do we have good surf headed our way for next weekend, we have TWO solid swells. 

Charts today show Super Typhoon Bolaven (sustained winds of 180 mph) in the Western Pacific going extra tropical and turning into an 'Aleutian' storm this weekend. As it does, we should see overhead sets from the NW arriving around next Friday the 20th and backing off on Sunday. 

Also at the same time, we have SW marching up the Pacific for shoulder high+ surf Friday and lasting through the weekend. So it doesn't matter if you live in SD, the OC, or LA- you should see good surf next weekend. After that, nothing big is on the horizon but we may have more chest high sets from the NW around the 25th and waist high SW towards the end of the month. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

More fall weather is in store for the following week. As cold fronts move by to our N, we're left with off and on drizzle and sunshine. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday: More clouds and drizzle. Temps 67/61.
• Saturday to Monday: More sun. Temps 70/65.
• Tuesday/Wednesday: More clouds/drizzle. Temps 68/63.
• And more sun the second half of next week to coincide with our swells?

BEST BET:

Late next week. What did you think I was going to say?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

It's been thought that in winter, big Aleutian storms move sand from N to S along our coast and in the summer- it's flipped with solid southern hemi swells moving it back S to N. A report that in the San Diego Union Tribune this week though says the sand hardly moves at all long the coast. So just where is it all disappearing to? Here's what they had to say:

A renowned oceanographer who has studied the California coast for decades says new research challenges a well-established notion about how sand flows within the surf and long-shore currents that constantly shape the state’s beaches. Studies show sand doesn’t always flow south and in some cases is carried north between the coastal communities, said Reinhard Flick, a member of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Coastal Processes Group. “That’s a new finding, and it’s important,” Flick said. “This strongly suggests that little, if any, sand flows south from Oceanside to Carlsbad.” Carlsbad and Oceanside, like many coastal cities, are losing sand at alarming rates.

The accumulating data could change how local officials approach efforts to preserve their eroding coastlines, particularly sand replenishment projects that cost tens of millions of dollars and can be wiped out by the storms of a single El Niño winter. Past studies by researchers at the University of California, the California Coastal Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey have shown that the dominant ocean currents carry sand from north to south within what’s known as the Oceanside littoral cell, a 50-mile length of coast stretching from the Dana Point Harbor to La Jolla. Most replenishment project are designed with that idea in mind.

“The major agent of sediment transport along the coast is longshore drift, which moves the sand southward,” states a recent USGS summary of coastal changes. Southern California beaches are relatively steep, which concentrates sediments in a narrow zone that can vary according to the seasons. Carlsbad and other San Diego County coastal cities passed resolutions last year opposing an Oceanside proposal to build retention devices, such as rock groins, on the grounds that the structures would stop the flow of sand south to their beaches. Since then, Oceanside has continued to work on sand replenishment and retention plans, while downplaying the possibility of groins. Three consulting teams are competing to win a design contract for the project, called Re:Beach.

Wave-driven sand transport is complex and detailed, Flick said. Shoreline studies have grown more accurate with the development of improved technology such as Lidar, which stands for Light Detection and Ranging, a system that uses laser pulses to measure the movement of beach materials. An accumulation of recent Lidar data shows a wide variety of movement within the Oceanside littoral cell that includes the coast of most of San Diego and Orange counties, he said. The cell is actually “a series of sub-cells” with lagoons, rivers and jetties as boundaries, though still with some interaction.

“Oceanside is not completely isolated from Carlsbad,” he said. “There is a constant local exchange to maintain a continuous small ribbon of beach. However, large southward sand movement is episodic, and the two cities’ littoral systems are much more isolated than the old ‘one littoral cell from Dana Point to La Jolla’ concept implied.” Oceanside’s harbor jetty has blocked the flow of sand since the federal government built the Camp Pendleton boat basin in the early 1940s. Another jetty at the San Luis Rey River also helps to hold sand on the beach near the harbor.

Sediment is pumped from the harbor mouth every spring and helps to maintain a wide beach as far as the city pier. But after a few blocks south of the pier the beaches are barren for about two miles, down to the city’s border with Carlsbad at the mouth of Buena Vista Creek. “The general southward transport of sand on our coast, especially during large wave events (such as storms), remains intact,” Flick said. “However, under normal conditions, the transport at the lagoon and river mouths is almost always reversed and flows back north.”

These reversals are not caused by any coastal structures or by the river mouths, but by the related offshore topography that bends the wave directions to make this happen, he said. Local wave conditions are shaped by many factors such as lagoons, rivers, creeks, offshore reefs and even the distant Catalina Islands.

Sea-level rise is another factor in the movement of coastal sediments. “We have to start honestly considering the trade-off decisions between nature and coastal intervention that will be forced upon us in California and every other urbanized coast in the world by accelerating sea-level rise starting about mid-century, just 27 years off,” Flick said. “These current debates over sand retention in Oceanside may soon appear trivial depending on the trajectory of sea level after about 2050,” he said. “There is no question that sea level is and will continue to rise, perhaps for centuries.”

Jayme Timberlake, Oceanside’s coastal zone administrator, said the accumulating research data on coastal erosion is good for her city’s beach replenishment efforts. “This is a major change in how we think about the littoral system, but it is not new,” she said. The change comes from an accumulation of data that helps validate long-held opinions about how erosion varies from place to place, season to season and year to year. “It really means that jurisdiction by jurisdiction we can deal with our own sub-cell and not expect major implications for other sub-cells,” Timberlake said.

The annual dredging of the Oceanside harbor provides clear evidence that the predominant southern currents don’t carry sand very far, she said. “Every year we place tons of sand (dredged from the harbor) on the beach down to the pier,” she said. “And every year it doesn’t get to South Oceanside. So how is there a river of sand going south?”

The sand disappears from Oceanside’s shores, but it’s still unclear where it goes. Some flows to offshore deposits just past the surf zone, which can be mined for replenishment projects. But farther out there are deep canyons that could hold unreachable sediments. Design teams competing for Oceanside’s next sand project have been asked to account for some of these unknown factors, Timberlake said. The teams will depict how their designs can be adaptable to different circumstances such as sea-level rise, the direction of sand movement, and proposed management plans, she said.

Carlsbad remains wary of any project that could interfere with the natural flow of sand in its direction, despite the new information. “Whatever design the city of Oceanside ultimately chooses for its sand nourishment and retention pilot project will need to undergo studies and analysis, including identifying any potential impacts to other coastal cities in the region,” said Carlsbad Parks and Recreation Director Kyle Lancaster. “For now, we are continuing to monitor the project and staying in contact with the project staff in Oceanside.”

Recent work by William O’Reilly, also a Scripps oceanographer, supports the idea that littoral cells are complicated regions with sand following numerous pathways. Another factor is the periodic appearance of El Niño conditions, which occur every two to seven years, he said. The El Niño brings warmer ocean temperatures and an increased chance of strong winter storms with big waves that can quickly sweep huge volumes of sand off the beaches. “The beach gets quite narrow, and it takes multiple years to come back,” O’Reilly said in a video presentation.

“The good news is that all of the state beaches south of the San Elijo Lagoon ... show positive trends in recovery since (the last significant El Niño in) 2016,” he said. “That bad news is that north of the San Elijo inlet, (at places such as Moonlight Beach in Encinitas and South Carlsbad State Beach in Carlsbad) they have been doing the opposite since 2016.” The reasons are unknown, he said, but one possibility is that there is simply less sand along the North County coast.

Mitch Silverstein, countywide policy director for the Surfrider Foundation, brought up the possibility that nothing flows south from Oceanside because Oceanside has so little sand. Flick agreed. “If there is no sand, there is no sand to transport ... no matter what the waves are doing,” said Flick, who has studied oceanography since 1969. Most of the sand movement occurs in the surf zone, he said, and little is known about how the material moves in water deeper than 13 feet. In 1993, Flick wrote a paper called “The Myth and Reality of Southern California Beaches,” which explained that the region’s beaches are naturally small and the largest ones are created by human development and projects such as dredging. That remains true today, he said. “It is an eroding coast, it has been for 20,000 years,” Flick said. Beaches near the county’s lagoons and harbors are wider because they get sand when those areas are dredged. For example, the beach at Coronado is wide because it gets sand from the San Diego harbor. “We have to remember we are in an urban area,” he said, and the coastline along most of Southern California is no longer natural.

Keeping the coastline livable will require a balance of choices, especially as sea-level rise accelerates, he said. All coastal cities are looking for ways to slow erosion and protect their beaches. “This is why the (California) Coastal Commission is so important,” Flick said. Voters established the state agency in 1972 to monitor development and maintain public access to coastal resources. “It helps us keep this balance,” he said. “It’s critical ... as going forward we are going to have to make choices.” He’s not an advocate for sand retention devices such as groins, he said. But he supports solutions such as the “living shoreline project” at Cardiff State Beach in Encinitas. The living shoreline project was completed in 2019 as part of the restoration of the San Elijo Lagoon. Contractors built a rock revetment along the edge of the beach and covered it with sand and native plants to make it look like a natural dune.

In a big storm the sand and plants may wash away, but the rocks will remain to protect the beach and the highway behind it. The sand and plants can be replaced Lidar data shows that, contrary to most of the San Diego County shoreline, Cardiff State Beach has widened by 25 meters since 2002 and 15 meters since 2007, according to O’Reilly’s work Multiple factors in addition to the shoreline project have contributed to the widening, including two regional sand replenishment projects, the annual placement of sand from the mouth of San Elijo Creek onto the beach, and the location of natural reefs near the north and south boundaries that help hold sand on the beach Similar living shoreline projects are proposed for Dockweiler State Beach and Manhattan Beach in Los Angeles County, and others elsewhere in the state.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you're an old timer in North County, you probably remember the Longboard Grotto in Leucadia and all the quirky items they sold. The building has since been brought up to code and changed hands a few times, but now it's a great collection of businesses called Coffee Coffee, Bing Surfboards, and the site of our next North County Board Meeting business mixer... Duck Foot Brewing! Longboard Grotto may be gone, but the quirkiness still lives in Duck Foot. If one word was to describe them, it would have to be... random? That word encompasses their brewing style, humor, and design style; you’ll get a sense of that when you see their beer names and cans. And if you haven't been to one of the NCBM Biz Mixers, it's a great way to connect our community to a local surf run company. Sponsored by our friends at Surfhouse, come on down Tuesday evening, October 24th at 6pm to hear Duck Foot's story, grab a drink, network, and have a bite. And as always with our October events, in the spirt of Halloween, wear your oddest/coolest/funkiest t-shirt and you may just walk away with a valuable prize (valuable being a loose term). Thanks for the support and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Occy X Mundaka. Billabong Pump. That's all I wanted to say. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Sumptuous
Starring In The 92021 Reboot Called '92024'
Mr. Miyagi Taught Me How Take Wax On & Off My Surfboard

THE Surf Report

 

Calling El Nino.

SURF:

Don't get me wrong- this weather has been fantastic and the even though the surf has been small, it's been rideable- but let's be honest- I'm here for the El Nino. For Friday- and most of the weekend- surf will be on the small side- maybe waist high+ from the SW/NW. Good news is that the weather will be great again this weekend though. 

We also have soon to be Hurricane Lidia SE of Cabo tonight- and it may hit our swell window tomorrow- but it's fairly small and I think it's just going to blend in with the other small SW/NW this weekend. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:48 AM sunrise 
• 6:24 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Temps are still nice- high 60's in SD and mid-60's in LA

• And not much for tides this weekend:
• about 4' at sunrise
• down slightly to 3' midday
• and up to 4.5' late afternoon

FORECAST:

Not sure if it's due to El Nino or not, but I may have to turn on the Emergency Broadcasting System next week. 

First up is a fun SW filling in on Tuesday with reinforcements on Thursday. Most spots look to be chest high+. 

Also joining the party is a good NW filling in Tuesday and holding into Thursday. Look for chest high waves in N county SD and shoulder high surf in SD. Best combo spots will be shoulder high. 

Further out, models show the southern hemisphere coming to life this weekend- 6 months late- but I'll take it. We could see a good SW towards the 18th and larger surf towards the 20th (hoping it will be head high+). 

And we may have a solid storm in the Aleutians towards the end of the month- but I'm hoping it doesn't get pushed up towards British Columbia. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Typical 'Santa Ana' conditions for the near future- low pressures moving by to the N and high pressure setting up behind it. As was the case of the early season storm for the Sierras/Rockies last week; high pressure set up behind it and we got dry/warm Santa Ana conditions today. For next week, another weak cold front will move by to the N of us, drizzle down here mid-week, then more sunny/warm conditions next weekend. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday through Monday: Sun sun sun. Highs in the low 80's and lows in the low 60's.
• Tuesday through Thursday: A return of low clouds and mild temps. Temps 70/60.
• Next weekend? Most likely more sun and warm temps again.

BEST BET:

Mid-week with combo swells or wait until the 18-20th timeframe for bigger SW. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The 2022-2023 'water' year has officially come to a close. The water year is not based on a calendar year as it aims to better capture when our storm season happens- the winter season. So the water year runs October 1st (just about the time our first storms form for winter) and runs until the following year on September 30th to capture any monsoonal moisture. This water year as you know was a doozy- even though La Nina was in control- normally dry conditions for southern California which never happened fortunately. Our official rain totals happened to be:

KBPS reported this week: San Diego’s water year will be recorded as the 14th wettest year on record for the city. A recorded 15.72 inches of rain fell at the San Diego Airport over the past 12 months. The weather station there typically sees about 9.5 inches a year. It was the wettest year ever on Palomar Mountain. Rainfall there totaled 69.24 inches. Oceanside had the second-wettest year ever, at 23.47 inches, and Vista recorded 25.05 inches of rain — making it the North County city’s fourth-wettest year on record. In the East County, Ramona’s rainfall total of 25.39 inches lands as the city’s eighth-wettest year on record.

One major reason was 13 atmospheric rivers that drenched the region over the winter.“There was only a couple of days of break between each rainfall,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. “Each storm lasted two or three days, with the majority of the rain occurring in one day or less.”

Rainfall totals also got a boost when Tropical Storm Hilary rolled through the region in August. That storm, which reached category 5 hurricane status before weakening and reaching San Diego as a tropical storm, dropped about 2 inches of rain at the airport. Some mountain regions in San Diego County got over 6 inches of precipitation in just one day.

All of that rainfall has been good news for a region suffering through two punishing droughts in the past decade. In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor is showing something not seen very often recently: More than 90% percent of California is drought-free. But drought watchers say this is probably not the beginning of a long-term trend if recents years reflect what is to come. “So the last 20 years have been more drought-prone than any of the 20-year periods since 1895,” said Richard Heim, an author with the U.S. Drought Monitor. Droughts have been longer and more intense recently, something climate watchers attribute to climate change.

But some think that a building El Niño could be a source for storms this coming winter. “In terms of impacts, if it’s a really strong El Niño and you get a lot of heavy rain, well, just witness what happened this past winter,” Heim said. “How much flooding did California have? Too much rain, too fast, in a limited area can cause some significant flooding.” Predicting what will happen next year is difficult. Forecasters say the warming Pacific Ocean could bring intense storms as in 1997 or drought as in 2015.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you're an old timer in North County, you probably remember the Longboard Grotto in Leucadia and all the quirky items they sold. The building has since been brought up to code and changed hands a few times, but now it's a great collection of businesses called Coffee Coffee, Bing Surfboards, and the site of our next North County Board Meeting business mixer... Duck Foot Brewing! Longboard Grotto may be gone, but the quirkiness still lives in Duck Foot. If one word was to describe them, it would have to be... random? That word encompasses their brewing style, humor, and design style; you’ll get a sense of that when you see their beer names and cans. And if you haven't been to one of the NCBM Biz Mixers, it's a great way to connect our community to a local surf run company. Sponsored by our friends at Surfhouse, come on down Tuesday evening, October 24th at 6pm to hear Duck Foot's story, grab a drink, network, and have a bite. And as always with our October events, in the spirt of Halloween, wear your oddest/coolest/funkiest t-shirt and you may just walk away with a valuable prize (valuable being a loose term). Thanks for the support and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With the impending El Nino, I thought it was time to do a quick refresher course if you were thinking of paddling out at Mavericks this winter:

1. It's sharky.
2. Friend to friend here- you're not ready. Seriously.
3. There's only 1 Peter Mel and you're not him. 
4. If you DO happen to mistakenly paddle out, don't be this guy.
5. See 1-4 above. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Idealist
Speaker Of My House
Accomplished Small Wave Surfer