THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Gettin' up early to dawn patrol Goat Hill!

SURF:
Quick but concise THE Surf Report tonight friends. Playing golf tomorrow to benefit Urban Surf 4 Kids at the 3rd Annual North County Board Meeting Golf Tournament. A good way to kick off a long weekend.

And on that note... not much excitement the past week as far as the surf goes. Weather was mild and so was the surf. Look for the same tomorrow through Sunday as we just have background SW/NW in the water for waist high+ surf. Nothing too exciting for Memorial Day Weekend (except for Monday- more on that below). Clouds will stick around tomorrow at the coast, Saturday should transition to sunny skies, and Sunday will be nice.

The tides are the only exciting thing this weekend; -1.5' at sunrise, up to 4' at lunch, down to 1' late afternoon, and up to 5' at sunset. Water temps are even boring at 63!


FORECAST:
Better late than never for Memorial Day; high pressure sets up shop and we have sunny skies and beach temps in the mid-70's.

We also have a new SW showing for shoulder high sets in far north county and a touch of NW. If you can just make it through Friday to Sunday, you'll have something rideable by Monday.

The SW hangs around in the chest high range mid-week as a new small NW windswell shows up Wednesday.

Charts then show a couple bumps from the SW next weekend along with NW. Now if the weather would just cooperate.

Further out, models show another SW forming this weekend which would give us SW again towards June 5th. Nothing big yet but we're on the right track. Make sure to keep up to date on any new swells at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

As advertised above, we have some cool/cloudy conditions today and tomorrow. High pressure starts to build slowly on Saturday and by the last day of the Memorial Day weekend (Monday for those of you keeping score), we've got nice conditions with sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's. That's short lived though as another weak front moves through late Tuesday and the 2nd half of next week looks cool with partial afternoon clearing. Pretty typical for May. Nothing to get excited about- guess we have to wait for those late summer thunderstorms to get any action around here.

BEST BET:
Monday. Happy Memorial Day everyone.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their annual hurricane forecast this week for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific (i.e. our storms off Baja), and the Central Pacific (i.e. Hawaii). So after the past few years of great surf around here, what's their prognosis?...

An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for each region. The eastern Pacific outlook also calls for a 70 percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 6 to 11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Long story short, we're transitioning from a weak La Nina (bad) to a weak El Nino (not great but better than La Nina). So our water temps should be slightly above normal (probably peaking in the mid-70's this summer) and a couple extra hurricanes thrown in for good measure. Awesome. On the flip side, a few oceanographers have said recently that our warmer than normal water temps the past few years have been one of the reasons for the increased sightings of juvenile great whites (juvenile is a relative term since most of them have been around 10' in length). So with the water being trunkable this summer and a couple bonus hurricanes, we have to deal with an extra shark or too around here. Pick your poison.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Been thinking about giving back to your community? Here's your chance: Join the North County Board Meeting! Help grow local businesses, support charities, network, and above all... surf! Want to know more? Check out ncboardmeeting.org today. And for your information, the NCBM had a hat trick this week. In particular:

1. Our 3rd Annual Golf tournament is tomorrow at Goat Hill Park in Oceanside, benefiting Urban Surf 4 Kids. Urban Surf 4 Kids is a unique outreach organization that works with orphan and foster kids. Using water sports as a catalyst, they teach kids how to first have fun and then give back to their communities and neighborhoods through local service projects. The NCBM is honored to help support their cause. Want to also give a big thanks to the following:

-Presenting sponsor Hanscom, Alexeev & McDaniel LLP.

-John Ashworth for hosting a 3rd year in a row at his ultra-fun Goat Hill Park.

-Hole sponsors: Berg Insurance Agency, Silvergate Bank, TPC/HR Payroll, Henebery Whiskey, EPK Collection, Knutson Reeves Insurance Services, Taylor Kudell- Carrington Real Estate Services, LJA Coaching, Dana Albert at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, Leavitt Group of San Diego, Wounded Warrior Homes, Agency 73, OrganikSEO.com, Visit Carlsbad, MINUS EGO, and Filtrate Eyewear

-Raffle and Swag Bag sponsors: SUPERbrand, Tracker Trucks, Nixon, Green Plate Meals, Lululemon, Leus Towels, EPK Collection, Priority Public House, Pizzicato, Filtrate Eyewear, Beacons Point, Retirement Benefits Group, and Carlsbad Lifestyle Magazine

2. Speaking of Carlsbad Lifestyle Magazine, guess who made the cover? Easy answer- North County Board Meeting of course. Thank you to Lucy Jones and her staff for spreading the word. Some band named Switchfoot also made the mag but I don't listen to the radio much. Anyway, make sure to pick up the latest issue around town or read it online here. Just remember the camera adds 10 pounds and 10 years.

3. North County Board Meeting turned 3! And we're not toddlers might I add. The group has donated tens of thousands to local charities, grown to over 125 members, supported local businesses, and surfed some of the best waves in history (thanks to Hurricane Marie, our Surf Meeting in August 2014 was legendary). Who says giving back can't be fun at the same time? Not the North County Board Meeting. Email me at northcountysurf@cox.net to find out how you can make your community a better place.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Rumor has it The Who wrote 'I Can See For Miles' when they surfed this point back in 1967. Ironically, they've kept it for secret for 50 years even though the song was on the album called 'The Who Sell Out'. True story. Sort of.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Real-life Superman
Just Got Signed By Big Baller
If Kelly Can Surf AM, Golf PM, Why Can't I?

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Bring on the weekend!

SURF:
Just when you thought May Gray was going to steamroll into June Gloom- high pressure set up shop today and you could swear August was knocking on the door.

As far as our surf the past few days, there wasn't much on tap except for consistent NW windswell and smaller SW.

Today things cleaned up and for the weekend we have some small NW windswell in the water and a slight bump from the SW on Saturday. That will give most spots chest high+ surf. Nothing major but with the great weather, it will wash your troubles away (just not the sharks- but it seems like there's been less sightings lately thank goodness).

Water temps are inching up slightly to 64 and tides the next few days are about 3' at sunrise, down to 0' around lunch, and back up to 4' at sunset.

FORECAST:
After a fun little weekend of surf, it's more of the same to start the work week- except the NW will back off.

We have little pulses of SW all week for more waist to chest high waves and a return of low clouds.

Models show a small late season NW towards Thursday for chest high waves and then a shot of chest high SW around the 29th. In summary, fun little waves the next week but that's about it. Make sure to keep up to date on any new swells at Twitter/North County. 

WEATHER:

We're finally due for some summer-like weather around here. After weeks of May Gray (clouds, cold, drizzle, S wind, you know- crummy), we finally have high pressure large and in charge. Look for temps near 80 tomorrow at the beach and light winds. That lasts into Saturday and most likely into Sunday. A weak trough develops off our coast early next week and we're back to low clouds/fog and cooler temps. So get out this weekend and enjoy it people!

BEST BET:
This weekend with fun combo swell and fantastic weather.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Just heard the new Charger stadium in L.A. has been delayed a year due to all the rain this winter. So sorry to hear that. Sniff. But that's a 1st world problem (for the 7 Charger fans in L.A.). What about real storms and real destruction? Like a tropical cyclone in Bangladesh that killed 300,000 people in 1970? The USA Today recently reported that storm was officially declared the world's all-time deadliest weather event, according to the the World Meteorological Organization. The agency, part of the United Nations, also identified which tornado, lightning strike and hailstorm resulted in the highest death tolls.

“Knowing exactly how bad various types of weather have been in the past is an integral part of preparing for the future,” said geographer Randy Cerveny of Arizona State University, who led the committee that made the determinations. "As the old saying goes, 'Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it.' "

The horrific death toll in the 1970 tropical cyclone — the same type of storm as a hurricane — was mostly due to a large storm surge that overwhelmed the islands and tidal flats along the shores of the Bay of Bengal.

“In today’s world, it seems like the latest weather disaster is the worst,” Cerveny said. “I have often heard since 2005 that Hurricane Katrina was the deadliest tropical cyclone or hurricane to have ever occurred." But Katrina killed more than 2,000 people and "pales in comparison" to the 1970 cyclone in Bangladesh, he said.

Bangladesh (or East Pakistan) has endured four cyclones that killed 100,000 or more people, according to the nation's meteorological department (read that sentence again- nuts). By comparison, the USA's deadliest hurricane slammed into Galveston, Texas, in 1900, killing 8,000 people.

The world's deadliest tornado on record also struck Bangladesh, according to the WMO report (what the hell is with Bangladesh)? The twister, which carved a path a mile wide and 10 miles long, hit the nation's Manikganj district on April 29, 1989, killing about 1,300 people. More than 12,000 people were injured and 80,000 left homeless.

Two separate events were listed in the lightning category: The deadliest "indirect" lightning strike occurred in Dronka, Egypt, on Nov. 2, 1994, when a bolt hit fuel storage tanks, igniting a massive fire that killed 469 people (that's straight of a Fast & Furious movie. Seriously). The highest death toll from a single lightning strike came from a bolt that killed 21 people in a hut in Zimbabwe on Dec. 23, 1975.

The deadliest hailstorm occurred April 30, 1888, near Moradabad, India, when as many as 246 people were killed by hailstones as large as goose eggs, oranges and cricket balls. An eyewitness said “men caught in the open and without shelter were simply pounded to death by the hail," the WMO reported. "More than one marriage party were caught by the storm near the banks of the river, and were annihilated."

Extreme weather's ability to cause major destruction and loss of life fuels the organization's efforts to learn lessons from previous disasters and improve early warning systems, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. "The human aspect inherent in extreme events should never be lost," he added. "One aspect of the ongoing discussion and exploration of climate change is the increased mortality threat of climate change on the planet’s human population," the report said. "As world population continues to grow along with change in global climate, a greater portion of humanity is threatened by a multitude of climate and weather phenomena.”

The report did not list the deadliest heat wave, cold snap, drought or flood, but the agency said it hopes to make those determinations in the future. The full report appeared in the journal Weather, Climate and Society, a publication of the American Meteorological Society.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I could use some of this right now. Actually, all the time.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Not Good, But GREAT
Dr. Says I Have A Case Of Senioritis
Only Surfer to Win MVP of the IPS, ASP, and WSL

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Murphy's Law.

SURF:

Typical- I go away on a long weekend- don't do THE Surf Report- and it rains cats and dogs (and sharks) in May. We're pretty much back to normal for May (except for the sharks); just some weak cold fronts moving by to the N and we're left with junky conditions, limited afternoon sun, cool temps, and a small NW windswell/SW groundswell combo.

For this weekend, we've got a boost of NW windswell again with a touch of SW groundswell for waist high+ waves. And let's be honest- with all the shark sightings recently, since it's not going to be firing this weekend, you may want to shit this one out (especially on Mother's Day).

Water temps are almost to 65 and tides the next few days are 0' at sunrise, up to 3.5' at lunch, down to 2' late afternoon, and up to 4' at sunset.

FORECAST:

Nothing exciting in the near future except for NW windswell generated by passing cold fronts next week. And a chance of showers mid-week (more on that below) will most likely make conditions undesirable. Charts show a small SW headed our way for maybe chest high sets in the OC towards the 16th- but yes- the cold front coming down the coast will mess it up. All in all, not looking to appealing any time soon. Make sure to keep up to date on the storm activity at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Somewhat nice weather will prevail this weekend with night/morning low clouds/fog and cool afternoon temps with hazy sunshine. Then models show yet another cold front coming through our region Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Models are differing on the strength but we should at least get some showers and breezy conditions. Nothing out of the ordinary (I actually remember a cold front a few years back coming through the first weekend of summer) but it just seems odd because April had such great weather. Hopefully by next weekend we'll be back to somewhat sunny skies. In regards to last weekend's storm, most spots along the coast in north county SD got over an inch (and the local mountains 2"). Pretty impressive. Here's where we stand now for the season (which ends September 30th):

-Newport: 15.87" so far. 123% of normal
-O'Side: 14.88" so far. 115% of normal
-San Diego: 12.61" so far. 126% of normal

BEST BET:
Maybe... this weekend with a little NW windswell and touch of background SW groundswell and semi-clean conditions. Sounds fun, huh?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
All the questions you’ve always wanted to ask about the ocean but were afraid to! (Or you’re omnipotent and the following information from NOAA is useless to you):

Why is the ocean salty, but rivers flowing into it are not?:
In the beginning, the primeval seas were probably only slightly salty. But over time, as rain fell to the Earth and ran over the land, breaking up rocks and transporting their minerals to the ocean, the ocean has become saltier. Rain replenishes freshwater in rivers and streams, so they don’t taste salty. However, the water in the ocean collects all of the salt and minerals from all of the rivers that flow into it. It is estimated that the rivers and streams flowing from the United States alone discharge 225 million tons of dissolved solids and 513 million tons of suspended sediment annually to the ocean. Throughout the world, rivers carry an estimated four billion tons of dissolved salts to the ocean annually. About the same tonnage of salt from ocean water probably is deposited as sediment on the ocean bottom and thus, yearly gains may offset yearly losses. In other words, the ocean today probably has a balanced salt input and output (and so the ocean is no longer getting saltier).

How much of the ocean have we explored?:
The ocean is the lifeblood of Earth, covering more than 70 percent of the planet's surface, driving weather, regulating temperature, and ultimately supporting all living organisms. Throughout history, the ocean has been a vital source of sustenance, transport, commerce, growth, and inspiration. Yet for all of our reliance on the ocean, 95 percent of this realm remains unexplored, unseen by human eyes. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration and Research is leading efforts to explore the ocean by supporting expeditions to investigate and document unknown and poorly known areas of the ocean. These expeditions represent a bold and innovative approach by infusing teams of scientist-explorers with a "Lewis and Clark" spirit of discovery and equipping them with the latest exploration tools. From mapping and describing the physical, biological, geological, chemical, and archaeological aspects of the ocean to understanding ocean dynamics, developing new technologies, and helping us all unlock the secrets of the ocean, NOAA is working to increase our understanding of the ocean realm.

Why does the ocean get colder at depth?
Cold water has a higher density than warm water. Water gets colder with depth because cold, salty ocean water sinks to the bottom of the ocean basins below the less dense warmer water near the surface. The sinking and transport of cold, salty water at depth combined with the wind-driven flow of warm water at the surface creates a complex pattern of ocean circulation called the 'global conveyor belt.' In contrast, the Earth gets hotter and hotter at depth primarily because the energy of radioactive decay is leaking outwards from the core of the planet. While this geothermal energy is transferred to ocean water along the sea floor, the effect is so small that it's immeasurable by direct means. Why? The actual amount of heat generated per square meter of Earth is quite small, especially compared to the amount of heat necessary to warm the ocean. Geothermal energy emanating from the Earth averages only about one tenth of a watt per square meter. At that rate of heat flow (without taking ocean currents into account), it would take well over a year just to heat the bottom meter of the ocean by one degree Centigrade. However, the ocean is not standing still. Complex deep ocean currents driven by density variations in temperature and salinity are constantly replacing the bottom layer of ocean water with colder water.

Is sea level the same all across the ocean?:
Most people are surprised to learn that, just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is not flat, and that the surface of the sea changes at different rates around the globe. For instance, the absolute water level height is higher along the West Coast of the United States than the East Coast. You may have heard the term “global sea level,” which refers to the average height of all of the Earth's ocean basins. "Global sea level rise" refers to the increase in the average global sea level trend. "Local sea level" refers to the height of the water measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land. Tide stations measure local sea level. "Relative sea level trends" reflect changes in local sea level over time. This relative change is the one most critical for many coastal applications, including coastal mapping, marine boundary delineation, coastal zone management, coastal engineering, sustainable habitat restoration design, and the general public enjoying their favorite beach.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Today's Pic of the Week comes from Rodd Owen, an amazing photographer out of Australia who shoots beautiful nature shots but hellish surfing photos. Not sure of the ying/yang going on there but here's an example of a wave that makes me uneasy. Think I'll stick to his scenic shots from now on. For more of Rodd's work, check them out here. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Muscular
Just Got The iPhone 8
Moving to South Africa Because They Have Less Sharks