THE Surf Report

Here comes the sun.

SURF:

Now that was wild. Driving wind, pounding rain, and big surf greeted us last weekend and slowly tapered off during the week.

Today we're left with sunny skies, light offshore winds (but strong in the OC), and new peaking NW swell. Best spots in north county have head high sets and down in SD is overhead. South OC is being blocked by the islands and has chest high sets while north OC is head high. The swell and winds back off slightly tomorrow but it still will be good- and crowded. Sunday is smaller yet in the chest high range but nice conditions again.

Beware the ides of March! Or in this case, the tides of January; 6' at sunrise and -1' at sunset. Water temps are still high 50's.

FORECAST:

The beginning of the work week is looking small but not completely flat. Look for chest high sets at best spots and nice conditions. Models show a good storm getting together early in the week and we should see new WNW late Wednesday and building into Friday morning. Right now it looks to be about head high. One possible wrinkle is another shot of rain late Thursday into Friday which would make conditions a mess.

WEATHER:

Beautiful Santa Ana conditions today are drying out the south land. Top spots in Southern California received 12" of rain and almost 6' of snow. Today, offshore winds are fairly manageable down here in SD while the OC is gusting 25mph+. More winds tomorrow then back off through the week. Cooler conditions/low clouds make a return towards Wednesday ahead of our next storm. Showers may arrive Thursday but rain is most likely on Friday. This storm hasn't fully developed yet but current forecasts don't show this to be too big- nothing like last weekend. Regardless, we have some showers in the forecast for late next week into Saturday.  Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

BEST BET:
Today is your best bet. Stop reading this and get out there! After you ask your boss first of course.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Even though we're at the complete opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to hurricane season, I have to admit those things fascinate me. Like tornadoes. Or Bigfoot. Or how Twinkies are made. Anyway, NASA is helping us out today by studying the dynamics of hurricanes and what we have to look forward to this summer:

During hurricane development, certain characteristics become more prominent as the storm strengthens. At the center of the hurricane is the eye, a cloud-free area of sinking air and light winds that is usually from 10 to 65 kilometers in diameter. As air rises in the thunderstorms surrounding the eye, some of it is forced towards the center, where it converges and sinks. As this air sinks, it compresses and warms to create an environment (mostly) free of clouds and precipitation. The eye is the calmest part of the storm because the strong surface winds converging towards the center never actually reach the exact center of the storm, but instead form a cylinder of relatively calm air.

Bordering the eye of a mature hurricane is the eye wall, a ring of tall thunderstorms that produce heavy rains and very strong winds. The most destructive section of the storm is in the eye wall on the side where the wind blows in the same direction as the storm’s forward motion. For example, in a hurricane that is moving due west, the most intense winds would be found on the northern side of the storm, since the hurricane’s winds are added to the storm’s forward motion.
Surrounding the eye wall are curved bands of clouds that trail away in a spiral fashion, suitably called spiraling rain bands. The rain bands are capable of producing heavy bursts of rain and wind, perhaps one-half or two-thirds the strength of those associated with the eye wall.

As a hurricane moves closer to land, coastal communities begin to feel the effects of heavy rain, strong winds, and tornadoes. However, its most destructive weapon is the accompanying storm surge, a rise in the ocean levels of up to 10 meters (about 33 feet). When a hurricane approaches the coast, an 80-to-160-kilometer-wide dome of ocean water sweeps over the coastline. Storm surges have demolished marinas, piers, boardwalks, houses, and other shoreline structures, while eroding beaches and washing out coastal roads and railroads. Strong onshore winds pushing the ocean surface ahead of the storm on the right side of the storm track (left side in the Southern Hemisphere) is the primary cause of the storm surge. This wall of water is greatest when the arrival of the storm coincides with the occurrence of an astronomical high tide. Strong winds are responsible for most of a hurricane’s storm surge, but the extremely low air pressure in the eye of the storm also plays a small role. The low pressure in the eye allows the surrounding atmosphere to compress the ocean surface into a small bulge.

In the early 1970s, a classification system was designed to quantify the level of damage and flooding expected from a hurricane. This system was conceived by Herbert Saffir, a consulting engineer, and Robert Simpson, then the director of the National Hurricane Center. Using a mix of structural engineering and meteorology, they constructed the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale, or simply, the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Consisting of 5 categories (1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest), the scale corresponds to a hurricane’s central pressure, maximum sustained winds, and storm surge. Sustained wind speeds are the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Categories 3, 4, and 5 are considered major (intense) hurricanes, capable of inflicting great damage and loss of life.

Category 1: Winds 119-153 km/hr (74-95 mph). Storm surge generally 4-5 feet above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
Category 2: Winds 154-177 km/hr (96-110 mph). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees, with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

Category 3: Winds 178-209 km/hr (111-130 mph). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, with a minor amount of curtain wall (non-load-bearing exterior wall) failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees, with foliage blown off trees, and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures, with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.

Category 4: Winds 210-249 km/hr (131-155 mph). Storm surge generally 13-18 feet above normal. More extensive curtain wall failures, with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 feet above sea level may be flooded.

Category 5: Winds greater than 249 km/hr (155 mph). Storm surge generally greater than 18 feet above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures, with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 feet above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline.

Even though a hurricane hasn't officially hit us in southern California (some say it was a tropical storm in the 1930's), we still feel the effects of solid S swells between June and September. We've officially left the realm of warm El Nino waters which fueled our active hurricane seasons in 2015 and 2016 but we still should eke out a few in 2017.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Seriously? Is this place is even considered a surf spot?! Dig one rail and you're done. Like, forever.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Voted Most Likely to Succeed
Making Lemonade Out of Lemons
*Best Surfer In The World (*Based On Alternate Facts)

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Brace yourself.

SURF:

Had some fun waves this past week- and fairly clean conditions too. That changed today as the first of 3 storms started to roll through our area. On Friday the surf picks up throughout the day for overhead+ waves and by the afternoon- full on gale force winds from the S and victory at sea conditions with 10'+ stormsurf. Winds are forecasted to blow 50 mph+ and DUMPING rain (more on that below). We even have a shot at a waterspout/tornado.

On Saturday we're left with 15' lumpy surf, partly sunny skies, and NW winds in the 25 mph range.

On Sunday the surf drops slightly to the 10' scale but then another storm of equal strength arrives in the evening. Basically, batten down the hatches and write off the weekend.

The water will be filthy, but if you care, water temps are in the high 50's and tides are around 4' at sunrise, down to 1' at lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.

FORECAST:
The Sunday stormsurf peaks on Monday for out of control waves in the 12' range. Tuesday drops slightly to the 8'+ range and the weather tries to clean up too- but the water will be chocolate brown. Surf starts to drop during the week as the water and weather cleans up. By Thursday we should be in the chest high range and sunny skies.

On Friday another solid swell arrives and models are showing good weather still. Look for overhead surf and warm temps for next weekend.

Further out, forecast charts show a small storm off the Aleutians around the 27th of January which should give us shoulder high waves in early February. Long story short- lots of surf the next 10 days with bad conditions this weekend and nice next weekend.

WEATHER:

Amazing how confusing the weather is (and politics for that matter). During the last 2 winters ('14/15' and 15'/16') we braced for 'El Nino' storms that never materialized. Instead, during this year's allegedly dry 'La Nina', we're about to get walloped with 50 mph winds and up to 5" of rain. If you don't know by now, the world is unpredictable. But enough of my Chicken Little speech. Back to the topic at hand- this weekend's weather. Today we had a fast moving storm with relatively light winds and 3/4" of rain. Tomorrow morning starts off fairly calm then things pick up speed around lunchtime as the jet stream over the Pacific takes aim at southern California. Look for rain to increase in intensity during the afternoon and potentially 1-2" of rain and heavy winds pounding us tomorrow night. Models are hinting at 50 mph+ winds at the coast. We get a small break on Saturday morning as the storm exits the region; look for partly sunny skies and NW winds of 25 mph. Sunday morning things get interesting again as potentially the last storm in the series impacts the area. This last one looks to tap more tropical moisture than the previous 2 storms and we could get 2"+ of rain- along with heavy winds again. Glad I patched the holes in my roof this week. Forecast charts show maybe a 4th smaller storm for late Monday/Tuesday, but if it does come, don't expect much out of it. By Tuesday afternoon we start to get back on track with good weather and the rest of the week looks sunny and mild. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Next Friday with solid surf and good conditions finally.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This weekend is odd in weather history. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts out a list of weather oddities from time to time and this one ranks right up there with the best of them. Reason being- this weekend’s storms have the potential to drop the most rain on us since 2010. And guess what weekend that was in 2010? Yep, you guessed it, January 18th through the 22nd. Eerie. If that wasn’t enough, during the last big El Nino of ‘92/’93, there was 2 weeks of consecutive rain in Orange County, San Diego County, and Big Bear that ended this EXACT weekend. Spooky. If that’s not creepy enough, the monster El Nino of 1969 saw OVER 4 FEET of rain fall in the local mountains DURING THIS SAME WEEKEND. Best oddity though, in 1916 (same weekend of course), heavy rains washed trees off Palomar Mountain, they floated down the San Luis Rey river, and right into the lineups of Oceanside. I’m sure the Russians have something to do with all of this. Regardless, check out the details below:

2010: A very wet and dynamic series of storms started on 1/18 and ended on 1/22. Rainfall ranged from two to four inches in the deserts, to four to eight inches west of the mountains, to six to 12 inches on the coastal slopes. Widespread flooding resulted across the region. Snowfall of 40 to 60 inches was reported at the higher resorts, with up to seven feet at the highest ski resorts. Some of the worst flash flooding occurred in the high desert on the 1/21 due to the prolonged heavy rainfall. Scores of homes and several schools sustained damage and many roads were washed out in Hesperia, Apple Valley, Victorville and Adelanto. Numerous swift water rescues were needed, one of which likely saved four teens trapped in a storm water drain. On this day a tornado went through Seal Beach and Huntington Beach causing local damage including boats in Huntington Harbor, and wind gusts reached 60 mph in San Clemente. Several waterspouts and very strong winds of 93 mph were also reported in Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. On 1/21 the surface pressure fell to an all-time record low of 29.15 inches (987.1 mb) at San Diego Lindbergh Field, the lowest since reliable pressure records began in 1880. Two deaths in Tijuana were attributed to the flooding. A tree fell onto a mobile home in Lakeside, causing one fatality on this day.

1993: This day marked the end of 14 consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Santa Ana, Escondido and Big Bear Lake, which started on 1/6. This day marked the end of seven consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Victorville, which started on 1/13. This also occurred on 2/18-2/24/2005, 2/14-2/20/1980, and 12/22-12/28/1971.

1969: Heavy rains of tropical origin began on 1/18 ended on 1/28. As much as 50 inches of rain fell at 7,700 feet. 31 inches of rain fell on the south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 15.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak, around ten inches at Banning, less than 1 inch from Indio southeast. This day was the start of nine consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Riverside which ended on 1/27. This also occurred on 2/13-2/21/1980. This day also marked the start of 11 consecutive days (the most on record) of measurable precipitation in Palomar Mountain, which ended on 1/29. 87 were reported dead from flooding and mud slides all over California. Scores died in traffic accidents. Hundreds of homes and buildings were destroyed in slides, including 14 destroyed and 11 damaged homes in Mt. Baldy Village. 50 homes near Forest Home (Forest Falls) were damaged by flooding. Highways and railroads washed out. Power outages occurred. Cucamonga Creek itself caused $10 million in damage. The Mojave River took out numerous bridges and flooded farmlands in the upper desert.

1954: Heavy rain “averaged” about three inches around Upland and Rancho Cucamonga and more than four inches in the mountains on 1/18 and on this day. Floods and debris flows struck these communities and blocked or damaged roads. Debris flows at least ten feet deep in Arcadia nearly killed people and large boulders smashed into homes. These debris flows followed wildfires in the San Gabriel Mountains.

1916: Widespread heavy rains hit Southern California starting on 1/14 and ending on 1/21. 8.5 inches fell during this period in San Bernardino. 16.71 inches fell in 24 hours at Squirrel Inn (near Lake Arrowhead) on 1/16 and on 1/17, a record 24 hour rainfall for California until 1943. More than nine inches fell in two storms in the Coachella Valley. Previous storms had deposited deep snow in the mountains, adding to the runoff. Widespread flooding resulted and at least 22 died. Roofs in Chula Vista, poultry farm in Vista, boats in Coronado and Newport were damaged. Most cities were completely inundated. Pine trees from Palomar Mountain floated down the San Luis Rey River through Oceanside. The cities of Indio, Coachella and Mecca were underwater. Ontario and Redlands were isolated and roads, railroads and bridges were washed out.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Sweet home Alabama.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Tour de Force
Pardoned by Obama
Surfed the Web Last Week And Someone Wrote 'Kook' In Wax On My Computer Screen

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Back on track.

SURF:
Winter typically means stormy weather and big surf. For the start to our winter, November had good surf but the weather was sunny (not complaining). December on the other hand had weak storms and weak surf. And now January seems to be on track- lots of rain (especially up north) and a solid NW swell arrived today. About time.

Most spots around town were overhead with sets a few feet overhead in SD. Two problems though- massive tide swings today- close to 7' this morning and down to -1.5'  late this afternoon AND the S wind picked up mid-morning from the building storm. You really had to plan your session accordingly. The NW peaked today and is on it's way down tomorrow. Look for head high sets and junky NW winds as the storm exits our region on Friday. Saturday is clean but only chest high.

New NW starts to fill in though Sunday afternoon for shoulder high waves and light winds.

Water temps are holding in the high 50's and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, up to 6' mid-morning, and down to -1' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Monday the NW peaks with shoulder high+ waves and good conditions hold. Tuesday/Wednesday look small but rideable in the waist to chest high zone then things get interesting the 2nd half of the week.

Models show the jet stream lowering and we may get some of those storms Nor-Cal received last week. Regardless, we should get some surf too. If the storm takes aim at southern California, we may see double overhead sets- but stormy around Thursday. That should last through the weekend as a 2nd smaller back up storm fills in behind the main one. Hold your hats and break out the mini-guns.

WEATHER:

The rain has been relentless. Nothing like San Francisco but enough to make my lawn muddy. Maybe it's time I turned off my sprinklers. Today we received close to 1/2" and Big Bear received almost 1' of snow. Showers should end tonight and we dry out over the weekend through next Wednesday. As mentioned above, models show the storm track lowering and we may get real wind and rain towards Thursday. That should last through next weekend. If correct, we could see 1-2" of rain which would put us around 8" so far for the year- almost our average of 10"- with 3 more months of the rainy season left. Not too shabby. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

BEST BET:
Late Sunday/early Monday with new fun NW and nice conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Last week I talked about the atmospheric river which has been relentless  in dumping rain/snow up north. We haven't been doing too bad either as we've had rain off and on for the past month in southern California. This is what we have so far:

-Newport Beach: 7.46", 135% of normal
-Oceanside: 6.13", 118% of normal
-San Diego: 5.44", 140% of normal

So what gives with all the rain? Is El Nino finally here? Wasn't I touting dry 'La Nina' conditions this winter?! First, let's have a look at the difference between El Nino and La Nina as it relates to the west coast of the US.

El Nino's typically have the jet stream dip south and take aim at the southern half of the US with torrential rains while the northern half is drier than normal.

In La Nina years, we normally get wetter than normal conditions up north while down here is our famous drought. As we currently stand, we actually are in the midst of a La Nina. The soggy northern portions of the west coast are in line for a La Nina- but why are we above average in rainfall down here? The answer is that we're JUST on the edge of the wet vs. dry border. Luckily for us, we're on the wet side and everything could change in a moment's notice and we move back to the dry side. But for the time being, we're on the favorable side of the precipitation. Long range climate models are showing we're starting to move away from La Nina and may transition to neutral conditions this summer (neither La Nina nor El Nino) and some models are hinting at El Nino returning this winter! I'm laughing at that one since we were supposed to feel the effects of a wet El Nino here in 2015 and 2016- and that didn't happen of course. But since this winter was forecasted to be a dry La Nina and we're just on the dividing line between wet/dry (and luckily we're getting the wet portion)- I'm guessing anything can happen.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Is this thing even rideable? If the answer is yes, would you even want to ride it?!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Clean As A Whistle
Former Chargers Fan
Inventor Of The 'Hang 11'

THE Surf Report

Water water everywhere, nor any drop to drink.

SURF:
Lots of rain pounding Central/Northern CA the past few days but nothing of significance for us. The source of the rain has been the an 'atmospheric river' (more on that below in the NEWS OF THE WEEK) which has been aiming a steady stream of clouds into the northern part of the state.

The clouds though haven't been organized into the classic storm generating shape we like; so we're left with small disorganized WNW swell and a tough of small off season SW.

Today we have waist high sets and clean conditions while Saturday bumps up slightly to the chest high range towards SD. That holds through Sunday. There may be a chance of light showers again on Saturday (and a little S wind) but nothing major.

Water temps are holding in the high 50's and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, down to 0' at lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.

FORECAST:
If the models are right, things start to take a turn for the better.

Another small storm will come down from the N on Monday and give us chest high waves late Monday/Tuesday. There's another storm forecasted right on it's heels for POTENTIALLY head high sets Thursday. The fly in the ointment though is the weather forecast- all that rain up N may dip slightly the 2nd half of the week and we could have junky conditions. Or we could have high pressure and clean conditions. Take your pick!

Further out, looks like the storms may get more organized if the charts are to be believed, and we may get overhead surf around the 17th. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, our friends to the N have been getting pummeled by rain and snow this week- with more on the way. High pressure below us has been keeping the storm track pushed N and we're just on the fringes with drizzle/showers in southern California. For today we have nice weather and maybe some drizzle tomorrow. Sunday is nice again and then maybe more drizzle/showers Monday. After that the models start to differ- we could get a better shot of rain the 2nd half of the week or we could just be in for drizzle again. Regardless, looks like some cloudy cool weather at least.

BEST BET:
Tuesday if the showers hold off. Or Thursday with bigger swell (if the showers hold off).

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you’ve been listening to the news this week, there’s been two things they’ve been talking about- Russian hacking and the atmospheric river. I’ve been tuning out the Russian hacking since it doesn’t affect my surfing (unless of course they tap into the Wavegarden or Kelly’s wavepool- then I’d get pissed). Back to the atmospheric river though; you may have heard it over the years called the Pineapple Express due to the moisture originating towards Hawaii and dumping tons of snow and rain over California resulting in the Donner Party and mudslides in Laguna. For a more detailed explanation though, I’ll let the experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration take it from here:  

Atmospheric rivers are relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere – like rivers in the sky – that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying an amount of water vapor roughly equivalent to the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

Although atmospheric rivers come in many shapes and sizes, those that contain the largest amounts of water vapor and the strongest winds can create extreme rainfall and floods, often by stalling over watersheds vulnerable to flooding. These events can disrupt travel, induce mudslides and cause catastrophic damage to life and property. A well-known example is the "Pineapple Express," a strong atmospheric river that is capable of bringing moisture from the tropics near Hawaii over to the U.S. West Coast.

Not all atmospheric rivers cause damage; most are weak systems that often provide beneficial rain or snow that is crucial to the water supply. Atmospheric rivers are a key feature in the global water cycle and are closely tied to both water supply and flood risks — particularly in the western United States.

While atmospheric rivers are responsible for great quantities of rain that can produce flooding, they also contribute to beneficial increases in snowpack. A series of atmospheric rivers fueled the strong winter storms that battered the U.S. West Coast from western Washington to southern California from Dec. 10–22, 2010, producing 11 to 25 inches of rain in certain areas. These rivers also contributed to the snowpack in the Sierras, which received 75 percent of its annual snow by Dec. 22, the first full day of winter.

For the past week here in California, Central and Northern  portions of the state have been getting the lion’s share because high pressure to our S has nudged the atmospheric river N. Portions of San Francisco have received ½ a foot of rain or more while the Sierra’s have received 6 feet or more of snow. And the forecast for them the next few days is more of the same. Down here we received 1/4 inches which didn’t really add to our drought relief but we’re still hovering around 5” for the season; which is 125% of normal for this time of year. Not too shabby.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

The first person who stumbled across this set up must have thought they won the lottery. In the upper right hand corner you've got a right point. As you come down the point, you've got some sort of right/left Lowers type set up. Then the inside of the cove is a right reef and on the other side is a left reef. And for good measure, Neptune has thrown in a deep channel right in the middle of it all. And it looks tropical. And empty. Am I missing anything? How stoked is the person that owns that little beach front property?! Must be the lottery winner.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Easy On The Eyes
Asked To Perform At The Inauguration
Walking Encyclopedia of Surfing