THE Surf Report

Right On Time.

SURF:

I'm still in awe that we didn't have much of a summer and it's almost like fall stepped in to make things right. 

Good W swell this week, cooler water temps, and a chance of incoming showers (more on that below) has wiped summer clean from our slate. For Friday, we have leftover W & S groundswells for chest high surf. Saturday is a touch smaller, then we get chest high NW windswell on Sunday as the S exits the region.

The NW windswell on Sunday is being generated by a storm to the N of us today and we may have breezy conditions Saturday/Sunday, so choose your sessions wisely. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:43 AM sunrise 
• 6:32 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Temps fluctuated this week- steady NW wind early on dropped our water temps to 62 yesterday BUT... SW wind today brought it back to 67. Go figure.

• And we have some tide swings this weekend:
• 2' at sunrise
• 6' mid-morning
• and 0' late afternoon

FORECAST:

Next week starts off slow as the Aleutians and Antarctica take a breather. 

We should see a couple overlapping and S/SW swells in the October 6-8 timeframe for chest high surf.

Behind that is good NW groundswell on the charts towards October 11th. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, summer is so last week. Fall is where it's at. Our nice weather the past few days will turn cool and showery this weekend. Friday is a transition day with mostly cloudy skies then a chance of showers move in Saturday/Sunday with a touch of SW wind. Nothing major but fall will make its presence felt. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday: More clouds than we've seen the past few days. Temps 70/60.
• Saturday/Sunday: Breezy conditions and light showers. Temps 65/60.
• Monday through most of next week: Back to low 70's and more sun. 

BEST BET:

Tomorrow with leftover W/SW swells and semi clean conditions. Or try your luck Sunday with new NW windswell and a bit of bump?...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Now that the weather is changing to a more active pattern (do you hear me El Nino?), let's have a look at...

THIS WEEKEND IN WEATHER HISTORY!

2001: Thunderstorms developed in mountains and inland valleys each day starting on 9/30 and ending on this day. Flooding was reported in Beaumont. One was killed by lightning at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park.

1980: It was 109° in Riverside and 105° in Ramona, each the highest temperature on record for October. It was 103° in Alpine and 93° in Idyllwild, each tying the highest temperature on record for October. This also occurred in Idyllwild on 10/12/1950 and in Alpine on several other October dates.

1971: Caribbean Sea Hurricane Irene crossed Nicaragua and reformed in the eastern Pacific as Hurricane Olivia. Olivia recurved to the northeast and made landfall in central Baja California with rainfall of up to one inch in the southern deserts on 9/30 and on this day. This occurred during the La Niña of 1970-71.

1946: A tropical storm moved northward into northern Baja California and dissipated with rainfall of up to four inches in the mountains on 9/30 and exceeding four inches in the mountains on this day. This occurred during the El Niño of 1946-47.

1932: Heavy rains starting on 9/28 and ending on this day came from a dying tropical cyclone. It brought flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts of Southern California. 4.38 inches of rain fell at Tehachapi in seven hours on 9/30, and the four day storm total was 7.10 inches. The resulting flash flooding in Tehachapi Creek caused widespread damage. Multiple trains were caught in the flooding, including a Santa Fe steam engine that was buried under ten feet of mud and sand. A gas station, café and several cabins were destroyed by a wall of water when a culvert clogged with debris suddenly gave way. At least 15 people perished in floods and monetary damages exceeded $1 million dollars in 1932 dollars. An exact death toll is unknown, as many people were “riding the rails” during the Great Depression.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

WE GOT SURF! (Finally). Time for a Surf Meeting! Want to increase your networking circle, support your community, AND get some waves- all at the same time? Here's your chance: Come join the North County Board Meeting TOMORROW Friday, September 29th for our world famous Surf Meeting. There's no better way to start your weekend than joining the NCBM on the sand for a little breakfast, collaborating, catching some surf, and brainstorming on our next charity event- all with the purpose of strengthening YOUR community. Don't miss out- we'll be meeting this Friday the 29th at Georges- just south of the Chart House at 8 AM until the waves go flat (or until you can a call from your boss asking where you are). Look for the tent as usual. See you soon and thanks for the support!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With almost 25 million surfers in the world, it's amazing there are still empty waves to be discovered. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Cool, Calm, Collected
Plays Well With Others
Been Called The 'Goofyfoot Ethan Ewing'. (Don't Laugh).

THE Surf Report

 

Well, That Was Quick.

SURF:

The past 3 months sure felt more like fall than it did summer. So it should have been no surprise that we saw random showers yesterday from a passing cold front, a quick shot of W swell, cooler temps, and more low clouds this week. Fall isn't wasting any time as the Pacific NW and Rockies this weekend could see 6-12" of snow at the peaks. So long summer, and hello fall! As far as our surf goes this weekend, we just have lingering small S swell and a touch of tiny NW windswell. Look for most spots to be waist high. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:38 AM sunrise 
• 6:43 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• High 60's and if you're lucky- maybe 70 at a couple beaches.

• And not much for tides this weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• 5' late afternoon
• only down to 4' at sunset

FORECAST:

Next week starts slow but gets more interesting by mid-week. 

Models show a storm taking shape off British Columbia and may send straight N swell late Tuesday into Friday morning. SD will be your best bet with shoulder high surf but N County may see waist high-chest high surf if it can sneak in here. 

We also have high pressure in control in the southern hemisphere but it may generate enough wind to send straight S swell next weekend for chest high surf- more towards the OC. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Just when I thought we'd have nice weather last week to finish out summer, we got an early taste of fall instead. So THIS weekend, I'm predicting nice weather and cooler weather next week. I hope. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday through Monday: A little more sun once the clouds burn off. Temps low to mid 70's at the beaches and low temps in the low 60's.
• Tuesday and beyond: High pressure weakens slightly with more night/morning low clouds and temps high 60's during the day and low 60's at night. 

BEST BET:

Mid week with fun NW towards SD or late next weekend with fun SW towards the OC.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The expected El Nino effects in Southern California never materialized this summer (large hurricane surf, water temps near 80, and outside of Tropical Storm Hilary- not a lot of monsoon moisture), but the weather phenomenon has been building regardless. Now a million scenarios can play out this winter (like the 'dry' La Nina this past winter being well above average in the rain department), but what we're hoping for, is an increased chance of big surf, snow, and above average rain again to keep the wildfires away. NOAA just came out with their latest El Nino forecast and it looks promising:

Let’s cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niño-Southern Oscillation (aka ”ENSO”) Outlook, El Niño is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter (Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5 ˚Celsius). Remember, though, a strong El Niño does not necessarily mean strong El Niño impacts locally. Instead, it means a stronger chance that El Niño impacts will occur.
 
Let’s dive deeper into what’s going on across the Pacific in a patented ENSO Blog expert Q&A. And boy, oh boy, are you not going to believe who we were lucky enough to snag. Without further ado, introducing our two “experts”: the Pacific Ocean and the tropical atmosphere.

ENSO Blog: 

Let’s start in the water. Pacific Ocean, big fan. Can you go over what “you” have been up to in the last month?

 
The Pacific Ocean:
Hey, right back at you! It’s flattering that you have an entire blog dedicated to things going on in me. But let’s focus on what’s going on at my waist, what you call “the equator.” The main El Niño monitoring metric, the Niño-3.4 index—the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July, according to the most reliable dataset, ERSSTv5 (long-term here is 1991-2020.) And the June-August Niño-3.4 index was 1.1˚C above the long-term average, making it the third consecutive three-month period in El Niño territory. And from what I’ve read on your blog, that means you are two more seasons away from an official “El Niño episode” in the historical record (the red in this table.)
 
Plus, judging from your weekly sea surface temperature datasets of my belly, the Niño-3.4 temperature anomalies are even higher during the first part of September, up to 1.6˚C.
 
EB:
That’s pretty hot!
 
The Pacific Ocean:
I’m pretty hot all over. In fact, my cousins the Atlantic, Indian, Arctic, and Southern Ocean are all pretty hot at the moment. Like record-breaking hot from April till now. So hot that the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures associated with El Niño happening in my central/eastern mid-section do not nearly stick out in the global picture as much as events in the past. It’s bonkers, if you ask me. The whole ocean was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-yr record. All us oceans have a fever!
 
EB: As we all know; El Niño doesn’t work if the atmosphere isn’t also playing. So, my next question is for the tropical atmosphere. What’s going on with you?
 
The tropical atmosphere:
Thanks for having me. First-time guest, long-time reader. Believe me, El Niño’s got me all topsy-turvy. Normally when my Walker Circulation is acting like a well-oiled machine, there is rising, moist air over the warm western Pacific Ocean, sinking air over the eastern Pacific, and winds connecting those two branches: trade winds blowing east to west at the surface and west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere. El Niño messes all of that up. And that’s what has been going on.
 
In August, the trade winds were weaker over the east-central equatorial Pacific. More thunderstorm activity than normal occurred farther east, extending from the international date line to the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is totally not where these storms typically reside. And then two important atmospheric metrics that you humans use, the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index and the Southern Oscillation Index—which monitor how the surface air pressure changes between the western and eastern Pacific part of me—both were strongly negative in August, indicating an El Niño-like weakening of pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher than normal pressure in the west.
 
EB:
How similar have recent precipitation patterns been to El Niño?

 
The tropical atmosphere:
Take a look at these images comparing the global precipitation anomalies from June-August 2023 to how I typically behave during El Niño. Oh, I’ve been very El Niño-like! Not only has precipitation been above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but it has also been below-average over northern South America, Central America, and parts of Indonesia and India.
 
Now, it’s not a perfect match. I know, I know…you’ll call me unreliable. Flighty. Chaotic, even. I prefer to say that I, the tropical atmosphere, never repeat myself. I give each El Niño its own special touch. Still, this year’s rainfall patterns are pretty close to previous years’ El Niños. In fact, based on a measure of pattern similarity between these two images, out of the 11 El Niño summers on record, June-August 2023 was the third-best match to what you all call the classic El Niño pattern (footnote #1). Only the summers of 1997 and 2015 were more like El Niño. Remember those events? Pretty big El Niños. So yeah, you could say that El Niño is having an impact on me.
 
The Pacific Ocean:  How about we ask you a question now? ENSO Blog writer Tom, what can we, the Pacific Ocean and tropical atmosphere, expect from El Niño for the rest of the year?

Tom:
Well, that’s a first. But great question! The global climate models we rely on are pretty certain that the currently observed warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures will last and even strengthen through winter 2023–24. After which, this El Niño event is expected to weaken, which is normal for these types of events.

 
The continued model confidence is one reason why forecasters have odds of over 70% that the current event will peak as a “strong” El Niño (Niño-3.4 index values greater than 1.5˚C) for the November-January average. There is even a 30% chance that Niño-3.4 values exceed 2.0˚C by this winter, which would put ocean temperatures in a tier with some of the strongest El Niños since 1950.
 
But... just a few reminders from the ENSO Blog archive:

1. You cannot blame EVERYTHING on El Niño.
2. No two El Niños are alike, and the same goes for their impacts. And, 
3. Just because a strong event is forecasted does not necessarily mean strong impacts. Instead, El Niño can increase the chances for certain types of extremes.

I'll take those odds.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Want to increase your networking circle, support your community, AND get some waves- all at the same time? Here's your chance: Come join the North County Board Meeting on Friday, September 29th for our world famous Surf Meeting! There's no better way to start your weekend than joining the NCBM on the sand for a little breakfast, collaborating, catching some surf, and brainstorming on our next charity event- all with the purpose of strengthening YOUR community. Don't miss out- we'll be meeting NEXT Friday the 29th at Georges- just south of the Chart House at 8 AM until the waves go flat (or until you can a call from your boss asking where you are). Look for the tent as usual. See you on the 29th and thanks for the support!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Winter's coming. Time to hit the gym! 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Behemoth
Bought The iPhone 15 for $75 (3 iPhone 5's X $25 each)
Surfing Prodigy

THE Surf Report

 

Last Call.

SURF:

Nice to see a little hurricane surf earlier in the week (thank you Jova)- and some fun SW today- before summer slowly fades to fall. We may have 7 more days of summer left but it's already feeling like fall. Cooler air temps, morning low clouds have arrived, and the Sierras/Rockies got an early season dusting of snow on the highest peaks. Good news is that we still have leftover inconsistent chest high sets from the SW for Friday and pleasant water temps. For Saturday and Sunday, we look to be on the small side with waist high+ SW and maybe a chest high waves towards the OC. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:34 AM sunrise 
• 6:52 PM sunset 
• and the first day of fall is September 23rd

• Water temps:
• Barely hanging on to 70. Even though water temps weren't tropical around here this summer (as hoped for), the El Nino this winter should at least help keep our water temps near 60 (+/-) this winter. 

• And tides for the weekend are simple:
• 1' at sunrise
• 5' right before lunch
• down to 1' late afternoon
• and up to 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Nothing big on the horizon but we have a small SW filling early in the week for chest high sets in far N County SD by Tuesday. That holds into Wednesday. We also have a small waist high NW swell filling in around the same time too. After that, it's looking small until the end of the month when models show more fun SW showing and MAYBE a hurricane forming. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Great weather this past week will roll into the weekend. We have a slight warm up the next few days, then the clouds and cooler temps return for next week. Here's a quick rundown on the week ahead:

• Friday through Monday: Plenty of sun and temps in the mid 70's at the beaches with a peak on Sunday. Low temps will be mid 60's.
• Tuesday and beyond: High pressure weakens with more night/morning low clouds and temps high 60's during the day and low 60's at night. Break out those parkas!  

BEST BET:

Friday with leftover SW swell and nice conditions or Tuesday with small new SW swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This summer, to say it mildly, doesn't seem to be living up to expectations. No big S swells to light up the Wedge. An an El Nino that continues to slowly build and is lacking in solid hurricane surf. No large storms off New Zealand resulting in small surf for SD. Lots of clouds from April through August. And water temps struggling to hold at 70. 

Even with the building El Nino, it sure seems like our hurricane season has been slow. The forecast was for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 14-20 named storms (15 is average)
• 7-11 hurricanes (8 is average)
• 4-8 of those being major hurricanes (4 is average)

So far we've had:

• 10 named storms
• 7 hurricanes
• 5 of those being major hurricanes

And just to clarify, a tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:

• Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
• Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
• Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
• Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

So with just a week left before the autumnal equinox, are we officially putting summer to rest? The good news is... no. There's still plenty of time for storms to form. In fact, a normal hurricane season looks like:

• 11 named storms by mid September (almost on track)
• 6 hurricanes by mid September (we're slightly above average)
• 3 major hurricanes by mid September (we're above average)

With all these storms though, how come the surf hasn't come with them? Unfortunately, the storms have been hitting a cooler than average pool of water of Baja and most storms have died- or headed towards Hawaii- before hitting our swell window. 

With that being said, the eastern Pacific hurricane season incredibly runs until November 30th, so that leaves us with 10 more weeks to fit in:

• 4 more named storms
• 2 more hurricanes
• 1 more major hurricane

Summer may be ending next week, but hurricane season is still in full swing. Let's end on a high note!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With a building El Nino, it was as supposed to be a down year for hurricane surf on the East Coast this summer- and firing on the West Coast. I want my money back. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Rambunctious
Already Looking Forward To Next Year's Chargers Season
6th Place, 2023 WSL Finals At Lowers

THE Surf Report

 

The Jova Jinx.

SURF:

Let's just throw everything out there- including the kitchen sink- and let's break the 'Jova Jinx':

Jova is a small but solid hurricane, we'll see fun surf this weekend, water is warm, and we'll have great weather! There, I said it. Turn on the ol' Emergency Boardriding System while you're at it. It's been a mediocre summer to say the least, so we deserve some good news- jinx or not. 

On that note, Hurricane Jova formed yesterday off Mainland Mexico and steadily built into a major hurricane. Jova now sits in our swell window with peak winds this morning of 155 mph and a good- but not great- track towards the WNW. To start off the weekend, we'll have small background SW swell for inconsistent chest high sets in far N County SD and the OC on Friday. The Jova swell shows on Saturday for the OC (head high+) and some chest high sets in SD later in the day. For Sunday morning, Jova really kicks in with head high sets in N County SD and overhead sets in the OC. . Well have water temps in the high 60's and sunny skies- so clear your schedule. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:29 AM sunrise 
• 7:02 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Slight WNW winds all week have dropped our water temps to the high 60's. The mild heat wave this weekend may help bring it back up to 70 again.

• And tides for the weekend:
  • 3' at sunrise
  • 4' at breakfast
  • down to 3' after lunch
  • and up to 5' before sunset

FORECAST:

The start of the work/school still looks fun as we'll still have good Jova swell in the water. 

Once Jova winds down on Tuesday, we have fun SW swell on it's heels for mid-week. Look for chest high swell just about everywhere. 

Forecast charts also show a small early season storm in the Aleutians next week which could give SD some chest high NW by Wednesday. 

AND... after that, models show a good storm taking shape this weekend which would give us head high+ sets from the SW toward the 18th. Nice of summer to show up 3 days before fall. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

I love it when a plan comes together (A-Team reference for those of you over 50). We've got great weather on tap this weekend- and hurricane swell to boot. Look for high 70's and sunshine along the coast from Friday through Monday. A weak trough moves by to the N mid-week so we cool off slightly but we'll still have afternoon sun and mild temps. Here's a quick rundown on the week ahead:

• Friday through Monday: Plenty of sun and temps in the high 70's at the beaches with a peak on Sunday. Low temps will be high 60's.
• Tuesday and beyond: High pressure weakens with night/morning low clouds and temps 72/65. 

BEST BET:

Saturday though Monday with Jova swell, sunny skies, and comfortable water temps. Think it will be crowded?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Tropical Storm Hilary was an interesting experiment for us in Southern California. Since tropical storms and hurricanes don't typical move through our area, there wasn't a lot of history to predict Hilary's effects. Would we get the large amounts of rain forecasted? (Yep). Would the winds be as fierce as predicted? (Depended on where you were). Would there be a lot of storm damage? (Flooding, yes. Roofs torn off, nope). Luckily we were spared the worst of it. But with a warming ocean and atmosphere, should we expect more tropical storms in Southern California? San Diego's CBS channel 8 asked the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to shed some light on the subject:

On the heels of Tropical Storm Hilary arriving, many Southern Californians are left wondering whether climate change could make hurricanes and tropical storms more common in the area.

The rain that Hilary brought was enough to break records for the most amount of rain recorded in the month of August in a few local cities. It was more rain than the city of San Diego had seen in a single day in more than 6 years. Palm Springs saw nearly their total annual rainfall in just 48 hours. So could climate change and global warming increase the likelihood of these storms making landfall?

Research scientists and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agree: No, climate change is not likely to increase the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall in San Diego or anywhere in the world for that matter. But, it could increase the intensity of cyclones that develop, leading to more destruction when they do arrive. 

In other words, the number of storms making landfall isn’t expected to increase – in fact, some models show the number of cyclones actually dropping slightly. But the intensity of rain and wind within the lifetime of a cyclone could rise by about 5 percent in the 21st century. Beyond that, rising sea levels increase the likelihood of life-threatening storm surge, especially across coastal communities in the United States. 

A couple other factors that could lead to more intensity and severity are the speed the storms move at and increased urbanization.

There is also some evidence to suggest that cyclone movement is slowing down. This can particularly increase devastation when storms essentially stall over cities, drenching them in one place and inducing flash flooding, rather than the fast speeds that other storms move through with. But, there’s still more research that needs to be done on whether this change is caused by humans. 

One factor that is definitely caused by humans- Urbanization. Cities are growing in size, especially along coastal communities. That means more pavement that isn’t able to soak in rain, making urban areas more susceptible to flash flooding. Beyond that, researchers have also shown urban heat islands around downtown areas tend to increase thunderstorm intensity, meaning not only could future storms bring more rain, but that rain could be left with nowhere to go. 

Here in San Diego, that means the frequency of tropical storms or hurricanes arriving wouldn’t necessarily increase. But when they do, whether that's every century or more, they could become increasingly devastating for our communities. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

If you're not a pro surfing nerd like myself, you may not know the world's top 5 surfers are headed to Lowers this weekend for the World Surf League championship. And if you did know, you're probably hoping Hurricane Jova delivers and we'll see some of this. Looks like Sunday me be the day; if you care. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Racking Up Style Points
THIS Is The Year The Chargers Win It All
I Surf With A Small Ladder To Help Me With Foam Climbs