Friday, September 25, 2015

THE Surf Report- Lite


"All the news that's fit to print." (If you print web pages of course.)

SURF:
Got a quick one today. So get in, sit down, buckle up, and hold on tight.
Had a little southern hemi swell this week. Good weather too. Nothing to write home about. Today we just have leftover waist high sets and that's dead by the weekend. Charts show a little NW windswell filling in tomorrow but SD will be the call with waist high+ waves down there. The weather will be great though, so you can look forward to that.
Water is still an incredible 75 degrees as we head into October and tides the next few days are 5' at sunrise, down to 1' after lunch and up to 5' at sunset.

FORECAST:

After a small weekend, we get a little bit of help next week. A small storm in the southern hemisphere sent us SW swell that's marching up the Americas today. Look for waist to chest high surf Tuesday.
After that the northern hemisphere makes it mark with a little NW late Wednesday into Friday morning. Look for chest high waves with slightly better sets in SD.
The tropics have some clouds flaring up so maybe we'll get a storm by mid-week and more hurricane swell next weekend.
The models also show a solid storm off Antarctica in a few days that may give us good SW towards the 7th of October but we're kind of past the southern hemisphere season so I'm taking it with a grain of salt. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North Couny Surf.

WEATHER:

Thank goodness all that winter rain is gone as we head into summer. Wait, scratch that. I meant summer rain as we warm up into fall/winter. That still doesn't make sense. Anyway, no rain in sight and great weather this weekend with beach temps in the 80's. Look for a slight cool down next week with the return of low clouds in the nights and mornings.
 
BEST BET:
The 2nd half of next week with fun NW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Just a quick follow up on last week's story about the unusual amounts of summer rain we had here in San Diego. The local National Weather Service office reported last week that with a climate of very dry summers, and during one of the worst droughts on record, San Diego managed to harvest the greatest summer rainfall  on record (June 22nd to September 22nd). Exactly 3" of rain fell in San Diego this summer, breaking the old summer record of 2.13" in 1977. This July in particular had the greatest July rainfall on record with 1.71", and this September witth 1.24" is tied for the 4th wettest September on record.

So we're due for more record rains this winter in California, right? Well all El Ninos are different of course. The good news is that in most cases of strong El Ninos, southern California gets above average rainfall. Northern California- flip a coin. The 65/66, 91/92, and 72/73 El Ninos were mostly below average for Northern California. The 57/58, 82/83, and 97/98 El Ninos were above average for our neighbors to the north. So what's in store for them this winter season? I don't know of course. If I did, I'd be a Powerball winner.  Let's just hope rain, snow, AND above average surf is on tap for everyone in California this winter.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Poor little guy looks so lonely. We need 100+ people on that so we can turn it into Lowers 2.0.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Above Average
Pope's Crashin' At My Place
Shaped A Swallowtail For The Wounded Gull So He Could Fly

Thursday, September 17, 2015

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Sure glad winter's here.

SURF:
I've never seen so much rain in my life. Considering 2011-2014 was the driest 4 years on record, my statement doesn't seem that silly now does it? Now that the ocean has cleaned up, it's time to get back in the surf.
We have a new fun SW swell filling in tonight for chest high waves tomorrow. We also have some NW windswell filling in too so fun waves will be had tomorrow into Saturday. Sunday stays fun but drops a notch to waist high+ surf. Our weather starts to warm up too so it will be a nice weekend. And all the rain recently hasn't cooled off our water temps yet as they still are hovering around 75 degrees.
Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, up to 4.5' at noon, and down to 1' at sunset. Oh- and fall starts on Monday- so we'll have more darkness than sun around here. Sun comes up at 7 and goes down at 7. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
So what does our future hold? You like weather? Great! More on that below. You like waves? Not so great. No storms last week in the southern hemisphere and no hurricanes this week in the tropics have got us in a wave drought.
There was a little bump off Antarctica a couple days ago that will give us more waist high SW mid-week. Yippee. The only good news is that we're at the peak of hurricane season AND we've been active this month AND it's an El Nino year- so maybe something will pop up off Baja the next few days for surf next weekend.

WEATHER:

I'm just floored on how much rain we've had recently and in 2015 in general. Make sure to read the 'NEWS OF THE WEEK' below for the full scoop. In the meantime, enjoy the great weather this weekend as we're due on Monday for- you guessed it- more rain. Look for sunny warm conditions on Saturday then the tropical clouds increase Sunday/Monday. By Tuesday we should get rain again. Most likely over an inch. Again. And if you're wondering- yes, my lawn looks terrific. Nothing like nature's sprinklers. By late in the week we should be back to normal around here- whatever that means.
 
BEST BET:
Tomorrow looks like a good day to leave work early.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

What a long strange trip it’s been. Just when you thought we were in a drought…

BAM! Along comes El Nino. Of course everyone thinks of El Nino as being the big drenching Godzilla of a winter but the active hurricane activity has helped ease the pain. But let’s back up a bit. The unusual 2015 rains actually started before summer. San Diego normally receives 10” of rain a year and as 2014 ended, we were only around 7”; our 4th straight year of drought. Then as 2015 hit, January and February, normally 2 of our wettest months only gave us a meager ¾” or rain. Then March came along with a late season 1” (it was like the atmosphere was taunting us) and April was back to a dismal 0.02”. It looked like we were in for our 5th year of drought and we needed the Carlsbad desalination plant to be multiplied by 10 as well as Governor Brown telling us to let our lawns die before summer hit. Well wouldn’t you know it, the warmer than usual ocean temperatures (thanks to El Nino) brought almost 2.5” of rain to San Diego in May. Of course that had to be an anomaly. No way lightning could strike twice as we approached summer- our driest months of the year. June was right on track with a Death Valley like 0.04” of precipitation so May HAD TO BE an anomaly, right?
And then El Nino kicked in with Hurricane Dolores in July. San Diego got HAMMERED with thunderstorms that sat for hours over the city resulting in over 1.5” of rain. Now I was becoming a believer. We hadn’t even hit the peak of our hurricane season yet (that occurs later this month) so there was a good chance of more summer rains coming our way from the tropics. August was quiet as usual then Hurricane Linda formed last week giving us good surf- and another good drenching.
San Diego picked up another 1.25” of rain. And we’re not over yet as you probably saw in the weather report above. Thanks to El Nino and the 12 named tropical storms this year (and a jaw dropping 7 of them being major hurricanes with winds over 110 mph), we’ve got a head start to our rainy El Nino winter here in San Diego with over 7” of rain so far in 2015…

PIC OF THE WEEK:

These gems are near a major international city. Which makes you wonder how our little towns here in North County and southern OC are absolute zoos on the smallest of days. Maybe all the people from the big cities are hanging out here on the weekends? Don't blame 'em.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Invigorated
Candidate
Pulled Off Slater's Trick This Morning

Thursday, September 10, 2015

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


I'm hot.

SURF:
Seriously. I've been going to 7-11 late nights just to sit in front of the refrigerated section. My house is 80 degrees (Fact Check: it was the temp in downtown San Diego at midnight last night), the ocean is 80 degrees (Fact Check: it was the water temp at Scripps Pier in La Jolla on Wednesday afternoon); there's just nowhere to get comfortable. On the flip-side, that was some of the best surf I've ever seen.
Solid southern-hemi swell over Labor Day weekend, hot as hell weather, and water temps in the high 70's. That was replaced yesterday by tropical weather courtesy of Hurricane Linda, hotter than hell weather, water temps holding in the high 70's still, and building S swell from Linda (did you even see the Trestles contest today)?! So what does the weekend hold in store? 3 words: Get It Friday. Hurricane Linda is peaking with overhead waves in the OC and shoulder high sets down here. We also have one last day of overly sweaty weather. By Saturday, the surf drops a foot and by Sunday another foot waist high with chest high sets (and chest high+ in the OC). Not flat, I'm just spoiled from the past week.
Tides the next few days are 3' at sunset, up to 5' mid-morning, down to 1' late afternoon, and up to 5' again at sunset.

FORECAST:
After Linda dies this weekend, we've got boring weather next week (more on that below) and small surf. At least the crowds will disappear.
We've got some disorganized activity in the southern hemisphere tonight that should give us chest high surf next weekend. And that's about it. Models also show some clouds off Mainland Mexico tonight that if we keep our fingers crossed, may turn into something like a hurricane next weekend too. So until then, enjoy tomorrow. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Ever heard the expression 'That was a barn burner'? The past few days sums that up in a nutshell (whatever a nutshell is). High pressure drew in hot/humid weather from Linda and it's made it unbearable around here. Still not as bad as Florida though. It's like that EVERY day down there. Back to the subject at hand though. Models show the last of Linda's clouds moving through tomorrow and low pressure up N nudging it's way down here by Monday. Fog/low clouds should return next week and temps back to the mid-70's at the beaches. Unless those clouds off Mainland Mexico turn into something mid-week, like a hurricane again, then it's hot and humid all over.
 
BEST BET:
Tomorrow. Enjoy the fruits of Linda's labor while you can.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Think it’s been hot lately? You ain’t seen nuthin’. I did a little snooping around this week and our friends at NOAA want to put to rest any talk of a heat wave or global warming. Our planet probably experienced its hottest temperatures in its earliest days, when it was still colliding with other rocky debris (planetesimals) careening around the solar system. The heat of these collisions would have kept Earth molten, with top-of-the-atmosphere temperatures upward of 3,600° Fahrenheit. (So you see, 90 degrees in north county the past few days is a walk in the park). Even after those first scorching millennia, however, the planet has sometimes been much warmer than it is now. One of the warmest times was during the geologic period known as the Neoproterozoic, between 600 and 800 million years ago. Another “warm age” is a period geologists call the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred about 56 million years ago.


History Of Hot:

Temperature records from thermometers and weather stations exist only for a tiny portion of our planet's 4.54-billion-year-long life. By studying indirect clues—the chemical and structural signatures of rocks, fossils, and crystals, ocean sediments, fossilized reefs, tree rings, and ice cores—however, scientists can infer past temperatures. None of that helps with the very early Earth, however. During the time known as the Hadean (yes, because it hot like Hades), Earth’s collisions with other large planetesimals in our young solar system—including a Mars-sized one whose impact with Earth is thought to have created the Moon—would have melted and vaporized most rock at the surface. Because no rocks on Earth have survived from so long ago, scientists have estimated early Earth conditions based on observations of the Moon and on astronomical models. Following the collision that spawned the Moon, the planet was estimated to have been around 3,680°F. Even after collisions stopped, and the planet had tens of millions of years to cool, surface temperatures were likely more than 400° Fahrenheit. Zircon crystals from Australia, only about 150 million years younger than the Earth itself, hint that our planet may have cooled faster than scientists previously thought. Still, in its infancy, Earth would have experienced temperatures far higher than we humans could possibly survive. But suppose we exclude the violent and scorching years when Earth first formed. When else has Earth’s surface sweltered?


Thawing The Freezer:

Between 600 and 800 million years ago—a period of time geologists call the Neoproterozoic (throw that word around the office today and see if anyone thinks you’re smart)—evidence suggests the Earth underwent an ice age so cold that ice sheets not only capped the polar latitudes, but may have extended all the way to sea level near the equator. Reflecting ever more sunlight back into space as they expanded, the ice sheets cooled the climate and reinforced their own growth. Obviously, the Earth didn’t remain stuck in the freezer, so how did the planet thaw? Even while ice sheets covered more and more of Earth’s surface, tectonic plates continued to drift and collide, so volcanic activity also continued. Volcanoes emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. In our current, ice-age-free world, the natural weathering of silicate rock by rainfall consumes carbon dioxide over geologic time scales. During the frigid conditions of the Neoproterozoic, rainfall became rare. With volcanoes churning out carbon dioxide and little or no rainfall to weather rocks and consume the greenhouse gas, temperatures climbed. What evidence do scientists have that all this actually happened some 700 million years ago? Some of the best evidence is "cap carbonates" lying directly over Neoproterozoic-age glacial deposits. Cap carbonates—layers of calcium-rich rock such as limestone—only form in warm water. The fact that these thick, calcium-rich rock layers sat directly on top of rock deposits left behind by retreating glaciers indicate that temperatures rose significantly near the end of the Neoproterozoic, perhaps reaching a global average higher than 90° Fahrenheit. (Today's global average is lower than 60°F.)


The Tropical Arctic:

Another stretch of Earth history that scientists count among the planet’s warmest occurred about 55-56 million years ago. The episode is known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (let’s just call it the PETM so I don’t have to keep typing out Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum). Stretching from about 66-34 million years ago, the Paleocene and Eocene were the first geologic epochs following the end of the Mesozoic Era. (The Mesozoic—the age of dinosaurs—was itself an era punctuated by "hothouse" conditions.) Geologists and paleontologists think that during much of the Paleocene and early Eocene, the poles were free of ice caps, and palm trees and crocodiles lived above the Arctic Circle. The transition between the two epochs around 56 million years ago was marked by a rapid spike in global temperature. During the PETM, the global mean temperature appears to have risen by as much 9-14°F to an average temperature as high as 73°F. (Again, today’s global average is shy of 60°F.) At roughly the same time, paleoclimate data like fossilized phytoplankton and ocean sediments record a massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, at least doubling or possibly even quadrupling the background concentrations. It is still uncertain where all the carbon dioxide came from and what the exact sequence of events was. Scientists have considered the drying up of large inland seas, volcanic activity, thawing permafrost, release of methane from warming ocean sediments, huge wildfires, and even—briefly—a comet.

Like Nothing We’ve Ever  Seen:

Earth’s hottest periods—the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the PETM—occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen. Modern human civilization, with its permanent agriculture and settlements, has developed over just the past 10,000 years or so. The period has generally been one of low temperatures and relative global (if not regional) climate stability. So the next time you want to complain that the AC isn’t working, just we be glad the Earth is relatively cool in regards to our past history.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Gotta love river mouths. Dumping all that sand into the ocean to form glorious dredging hollow barrels. River mouths also carry junk from the land out to the sea which sharks love to snack on. And river mouths also attract seal rookeries, which sharks love to snack on too. So scratch what I said. I'm not a big fan of river mouths.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
I'm Hot
Trumped Trump
Hurley Pro Injury Replacement

Thursday, September 3, 2015

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Labor Day roughly translated means 'surf your brains out'.

SURF:

Well wasn't that a hoot. Good SW swell last weekend (and warm water) was replaced by good Hurricane Jimena swell Tuesday (and warm water). Today we had dying Jimena swell but far north county SD still had head high sets. Tomorrow Jimena continues to die off but we still have fun chest high waves. By Saturday Jimena should be gone, but we have a solid SW swell on it's heels.
Models last week had a good storm in the southern hemisphere and it's been charging up the Pacific ever since. Early forecasts had it being BIG but it's since backed off to just 'overhead'. Oh well. Saturday starts off small but by the afternoon we should have shoulder high sets again. By Sunday it's head high sets. And by Monday morning, overhead sets. I though Labor Day was a day of rest?
We also have Tropical Storm Kevin below Cabo tonight but it's only forecasted to have winds of 60mph. In all likelihood, any swell we get from it this weekend will be lost in the bigger SW swell.
Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, up to 5' at 2 PM, and down to 2' at sunset again. And water temps are still a fantastic 75 degrees. About 3-5 degrees above normal. I actually had a wetsuit jacket on Wednesday morning and had to take it off because I was baking. Never had that happen in CA before.

FORECAST:
Hope you get some surf over the holiday weekend 'cause that's about it. Not much on the charts except a couple little storms.
Should get a shot of waist to chest high SW next weekend.
After that there's a similar sized storm forecast models are showing that may give us chest high sets again mid-month. Nothing too exciting unfortunately- but you had good surf already this week- and this weekend- so no complaining. Let's hope the tropics kick back into gear. So what does the Hurley Pro at Trestles look like next week? Mediocre at best. If you liked the 'average' Teahupoo contest, then step right up to Trestles. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

What an amazing summer. Drizzle so hard it looked like rain. Real rain from the tropics. Great beach weather. Sweltering beach weather. Fog/low clouds. You name it. Can't believe we're almost done with it. Looking forward to a calm winter. Scratch that; El Nino is coming. Before we say goodbye though, we've got a weak cold front moving through tomorrow that will kick up our clouds and cool air temps. Saturday is a transition day and by Sunday we should have nice beach weather with temps in the mid-70's. That lasts most of next week. In a nutshell, Labor Day weekend is looking pretty good with Monday being the nicest day. Wonder if the parking lot at Cardiff will be full?

BEST BET:
Monday. Great weather, warm water, and solid surf. The way a holiday should be.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doesn’t make many mistakes. But when they do, take heed. Like this story from NOAA this week:

It was less than two years ago that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its all-encompassing assessment on the current state of climate change research and made projections for the future climate of our planet. According to the latest from NASA, however, the projections the panel made for a rise in global sea levels of 1 to 3 feet may already be outdated. According to Steven Nerem of the University of Colorado, we are "locked into at least 3 feet of sea level rise, and probably more." Nerem said experts now think a rise in sea levels toward "the higher end of that range is more likely, and the question remains how that range might have to shift upwards." This is startling news if you are one of the 150 million people on Earth who live near the ocean. Even if you don't live close to the sea, you likely use goods that are manufactured in plants near the water, or vacation at the beach.

What's behind the rising seas? There are three main causes for rising sea levels: The expansion of warmer ocean water, melting mountain glaciers, and ice loss from the massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The latter of those causes has scientists at NASA the most concerned, and is a key area of focus in the "intensive research effort" the agency announced on Wednesday. One of those projects, called Oceans Melting Greenland, which goes by the intentional acronym of OMG (ironic, right?) will spend the next six years trying to determine how the Greenland Ice Sheet is contributing to sea level rise. The Jakobshavn Glacier, the fastest moving glacier in Greenland, recently broke off a piece of ice large enough to cover the island of Manhattan in ice roughly 1,000 feet thick, according to the European Space Agency. The glacier drains more ice-melt from Greenland into the ocean and contributes more to sea level rise than any other feature in the Northern Hemisphere. If the entire ice sheet in Greenland melted completely, global sea levels would rise around 20 feet, and while this total loss would likely take many centuries to occur, sea levels would rise "as much as 10 feet in a century or two," according to NASA scientist and ice expert Tom Wagner.

Many climate experts say temperatures are rising faster than at any point in our known history and that it is largely because of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. NASA's increased focus on climate change and rising sea levels is not just about future projections. The agency also is demonstrating the past change in a first-of-its-kind visualization of the entire 23-year satellite record of global sea levels. The agency is using satellite instruments so accurate that NASA Earth Science Division Director Mike Freilich said that if they were "mounted on a jetliner flying at 40,000 feet, they could detect the bump caused by a dime lying flat on the ground." The data gathered reveals that sea levels have already risen nearly 3 inches since 1992. If that doesn't sound like much, remember that a good rule of thumb is: For every inch of sea level rise, you see 100 inches of run-up inland on the coast. But the rise is not uniform. Some places have seen sea levels rise more than 9 inches, while others, like the U.S. West Coast, have actually seen slight decreases in sea level. But before you sell your summer home on Long Island and move to Southern California, you should know that this decrease in sea level was likely temporary. Experts say it was the result of cooler phase in a natural cycle with an unwieldy name: Pacific Decadal Oscillation. That cycle recently switched to a warmer one (giving rise to something called the blob- see the full story here). According to NASA, the West Coast may now start seeing a faster rise in sea level and more than make up for the deficit it has seen over the last 20 years. Long story short- if your home break likes a high tide, you’re in luck. Or if you proposed to your wife on the beach, kiss it goodbye. The beach that is, not your wife.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever heard the phrase "It was on FIRE today"? (And I ain't talkin' 'bout Jamie O'Brien's recent exploits at Teahupoo). Here's photographic proof.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Numero Uno
The Muscles From Brussels
Love Child of Gidget And Dick Dale