THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Every cloud has a silver lining?

SURF:

Hope everyone has been safe and sane this past week. I guess through all these tough times recently you can say there's a silver lining? That would be the surf is small, blown out, and for the most part dirty from all the rain. How is that a positive? Well, it's keeping us at home and not crowding the line ups which is a no-no in the age of social distancing. Plus, most beaches in the county are closed, so it's best to get those dings fixed, clean off that dirty wax, and be ready to charge once health officials give us the green light again. While we're on the subject of small waves and not surfing for long periods of time, now you know how it feels to be a surfer from Florida. Ouch! Oh no I didn't! (Mad love for Richie Rudolph, Kelly Slater, John Holeman, Scott McCranels, Matt Kechele, Damien Hobgood, Frieda Zamba, CJ Hobgood, Todd Holland, Cory Lopez, Lisa Andersen, Yancy Spencer, Shea Lopez, Dick Catri, Aaron Cormican, and anyone else that makes 2' surf look like J-Bay). Back to the subject at hand. The surf. If you don't have access to a private wave pool, here's what you can expect this weekend: The weak spring type storm we're experiencing tonight will exit the region and leave us with bumpy chest high surf from the NW and a touch of SW underneath on Friday. 

For Saturday we've got cleaner conditions but dying NW and a new little SW for waist to chest high surf. And for Sunday, let's play 'THE Surf Report - Home Edition!' I'm going to let you do the forecast for Sunday. If you guessed another weak cold front, windy conditions, and chest high sets from the NW with a touch of SW... YOU WIN! If you said 6' and offshore, you're obviously new to the game. Better luck next time. And here's the tides and sun this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:41 AM sunrise 
• 7:06 PM sunset 

• Water temps aren't rising above 60 degrees due to all the WNW wind recently

• And tides are mellow this weekend:
• 0' in the morning
• 3' at lunch
• 1' in the evening 

FORECAST:

After a small and bumpy weekend of surf (for the most part), next week doesn't look much better. (I know I said it before but I swear this virus and the surf are in cahoots). Looks like we have minimal NW (with a chance of a weak cold front again towards Thursday) with small SW as a filler for most of next week. 

On a brighter note, I'm not sure if the virus will be gone by then, but models are showing a healthy SSW swell arriving around the 7th of April. If everything comes together, we could see shoulder high+ surf- if you can find a beach that's open of course. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• Saturday with cleaner conditions and small NW/SW
• MAYBE good SW around the 7th of April?

WEATHER:

Even though the virus is throwing us a curve ball, the weather seems to be pretty consistent around here. As we transition from winter to spring, the storms are lacking moisture but still packing a punch with the wind. Tomorrow we'll have gusts to 20 mph in the AM and cleaner cool conditions on Saturday. Sunday looks to be breezy again with a chance of showers. Monday to Wednesday is nice, then maybe another weak cold front towards the end of the week. FYI- summer is only 86 short days away! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As we wait for the world to sort itself out, what does spring have in store for us in regards to the weather, waves, and water temps? Right now we're in a neutral position when it comes to La Nina/El Nino, so water temps should be average (i.e. no 4/3 fullsuits in June nor boardshorts in April) and storms are phasing themselves out as we head towards summer. So don't expect consistently big surf- or flat surf for months on end for that matter. 

For the near term, air temps look to be average and even though our storms are fizzling out, we should end up right on track for seasonal rainfall. 

For the rest of the country, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters predict widespread flooding this spring across the eastern half of the US, but do not expect it to be as severe or prolonged overall as the historic floods in 2019. Major to moderate flooding is likely in 23 states from the Northern Plains south to the Gulf Coast, with the most significant flood potential in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota. NOAA also states:

Ongoing rainfall, highly-saturated soil and an enhanced likelihood for above-normal precipitation this spring contribute to the increased chances for flooding across the central and southeastern U.S. A risk of minor flooding exists across one-third of the country.

The greatest risk for major and moderate flood conditions includes the upper and middle Mississippi River basins, the Missouri River basin and the Red River of the North. Moderate flooding is anticipated in the Ohio, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Missouri River basins, as well as the lower Mississippi River basin and its tributaries. 

Above-average precipitation is favored from the Northern Plains, southward through the lower Mississippi Valley across to the East Coast. Large parts of Alaska are also likely to experience above-average precipitation in the months ahead.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are most likely from coast to coast with the greatest chances in northern Alaska, across the central Great Basin southward into the Gulf States, and into the Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. No part of the country is favored to experience below-average temperatures this spring.

Drought conditions are expected to persist and expand throughout California in the months ahead, and drought is likely to persist in the central and southern Rocky Mountains, the southern Plains, southern Texas, and portions of the Pacific Northwest.

With recent world events being unpredictable lately, at least we can count on a bit of normalcy with California's weather. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Meaty. Not for vegan surfers. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Tougher Than Leather

Caffeine, GMO, Sugar, Cholesterol, and Gluten Free. Also Low Sodium, Low-Fat, Organic And Naturally Flavored! 

Only Surf On Days Ending In Y

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I find it a little odd...

SURF:

Don't you find it a little odd that the weather has been great the past few months and just as soon as this virus hits- the rain starts! It's almost like the Pacific is telling everyone to stay home and be safe. I'm just saying. 

On that note, the Pacific really has shut down in the swell department and in return has sent us more rain than surf. The result is bumpy small surf and dirty water. Just 2 more reasons to heed the government's recommendations and not crowd the line up at Lowers or pack the parking lot at Cardiff. I got a feeling that as soon as this virus gets under control, the surf will start firing. I'm just saying. Until then, here's what we got for the upcoming weekend: Friday has semi-clean conditions and waist high S/NW swells. Saturday looks to be sunny but just waist high surf again. We have a slight bump from the WNW late on Sunday- but we're just talking about waist high+ surf. Here's the tides and sun this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:

• 6:50 AM sunrise 
• 7:01 PM sunset 

• Water temps are back to the high 50's unfortunately

• And tides this weekend are:

• 5' in the mornings
• -1' mid-afternoon
• 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

Our lack of surf lately has been the product of 2 things:

1. Storms in the N Pacific have started off Japan and before they fully form, high pressure above Hawaii has pushed the storms into the Aleutians. They then roll into the Pacific NW and drop down into California. We get the rain but we don't get groundswells since the prime area to develop- between Hawaii and California- has been blocked by high pressure.
2. The 2nd reason is that the S Pacific hasn't kicked into gear yet- but it's trying to. 

What does that mean for us in the near future? We've got another weak cold front coming through on Monday and as it does, it will kick up some bumpy chest high NW swell. 

Tuesday is still showery (and bumpy) then we could get a more potent storm late Wednesday into Thursday with head high+ NW storm surf. 

As far as the S Pacific goes, we had a little bump today that should send chest high sets next weekend. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• Monday with an increase in small NW swell but questionable conditions
• Late Wednesday/Thursday if you like storm surf
• Next weekend with a little SW bump and hopefully cleaner conditions

WEATHER:

Seems like it's all or nothing with the weather lately. After a great start over the holidays, January/February went dry, and now we're getting all of our winter rain in... spring? Beggars can't be choosers. We received 1/2" the past couple days (along with 3" last week) and we're due for more in the coming days. For Friday, it's cool with a couple clouds floating overhead. Saturday is sunny and cool. Sunday starts off partly sunny before the showers kick in Monday/Tuesday and more consistent rain Wednesday/Thursday. Who knows what next weekend has in store but I'm keeping my fingers crossed it's sun and not rain. As far as temps go, it will be low 50's at night and low 60's during the day for most of the week. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Now that the rain has returned (and acts like it's not going anywhere), what's our rain totals look like for the season?

• Newport Beach: 9.06" so far. 79% of normal.
• Oceanside: 11.17" so far. 98% of normal
• San Diego: 9.40" so far. 109% of normal

Compared to last year, which was well above average, most locations were around 130% of normal for this time of year. As far as the rest of the season goes, we still have until September 30th. Most of our rainfall will end by April of course, so we have the following to catch up to:

Newport Beach: 9.06" so far but we need to hit 13.30" for the season. 

Oceanside: 11.17" so far but we need to hit 13.66" for the season.

San Diego: 9.40" so far but we need to hit 10.34" for the season. 

If we get around 1" next week, San Diego should hit the mark for the season and Oceanside will be close. Newport Beach though has a ways to go- even with April showers, it most likely won't hit it's mark this season. But considering how unpredictable the weather is now, anything can happen! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Until wave pools can replicate an 8' A-frame, the ocean is still my go to choice. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure there's nothing in a wave pool that will bite, sting, or eat you; not until they put a wave pool in Sea World that is. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Naturally Optimistic

My March Madness Bracket Is Still Perfect! 

Working On A Vaccine That Lets You Surf After It Rains

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Like winter, but without the surf. 

SURF:

The rain has returned the past few days but unfortunately didn't bring surf. Now don't get me wrong, SELECT spots had some shoulder high sets the past week, but that wasn't the case for a majority of beaches. It's not yet spring- so the southern hemi swells haven't fully turned up yet- and all the storms in the northern hemisphere have been getting pushed up into Canada- so there hasn't been any Aleutian juice around here. Add in the dirty water from the rain and we're left in a holding pattern down here. For the weekend, we've got leftover S swell on Friday as well as NW windswell from the storm that's been lingering the past few days. Look for chest high sets, dirty water, and questionable wind conditions. Saturday and Sunday cleans up (the wind that is, not the water) and we've got waist high+ surf from the S & NW. In summary, junky surf on Friday and small/clean Saturday/Sunday. Here's the tides and sun this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:59 AM sunrise 
• 6:56 PM sunset 

• La Jolla water temps today were 62! (While Oregon was 48...)

• And tides are mellow this weekend:
• 0' at sunrise
• 3' mid-afternoon
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Are you tired of the small surf? Are you tired of the rain? Well, I can help with one of those things but you need to figure the other one out. 

We had a good storm off Antarctica a few days ago that is sending us SSW swell early next week. BUT... (you knew that was coming), we've got another storm headed our way. Look for the SSW to increase through the day on Monday with chest high+ surf. The rain will also increase late in the day on Monday. By Tuesday, the SSW is in full swing, as well as the storm and NW windswell. Look for overhead sets and messy conditions (I hope I'm wrong about the storm). Wednesday is still messy and we've got left over shoulder high+ SSW/NW swells. Things should be back to normal by Friday with chest high sets from the WSW and cleaner conditions (weather that is, not the water). After that, models show just some weak storms on the charts from the southern/northern hemispheres so it looks like our medium sized surf is here to stay. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• If you like questionable conditions with your surf, then Friday and Tuesday. 
• Or Monday as that new SW builds- IF... the next storm holds off

WEATHER:

Since we were below average on our rain for the season, I welcome the storms. Just wish they would bring some overhead surf! But enough of my complaining. The rain the past few days brought us 2" along the coast and a dusting of snow at the highest peaks. Solid. Here's where we stand for our rainfall this season:

• Newport Beach: 8" so far. 70% of normal
• Oceanside: 10" so far. 90% of normal
• San Diego: 8.5" so far. 105% or normal

The storm that's been lingering above us the past few days will move through on Friday with lingering showers. Saturday through Monday look to be nice, then we've got more rain coming late Monday potentially into Thursday morning. This should drop another 0.75" with snow levels down to a low 2500'. Next weekend should be nice if current long range forecasts hold true. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This day in weather history! 

• 1996: A storm that started on this day and ended on 3/13 brought eight to 12 inches of snow to the San Bernardino Mountains.

• 1990: A funnel cloud was observed five miles south of Lindbergh Field.

• 1982: A thunderstorm produced lightning strikes and hail that piled up in La Mesa and along Interstate 8 near Pine Valley. Lightning smashed a huge hole in a La Mesa home, throwing a resident, breaking a window and burning carpet. Another bolt struck and splintered a nearby flagpole. Other strikes started a small fire in Alpine. Hail caused accidents along Interstate 8 in Pine Valley.

• 1969: It was -8° in Big Bear Lake, the lowest temperature on record for March.

• 1967: A series of storms brought heavy rain starting on 3/11 and ending on 3/14. Total precipitation was 8.52 inches in Lake Arrowhead and 8.06 inches in Lytle Creek. Only about one inch fell in the San Bernardino area during this time, and none in Victorville. The Mojave River flooded a couple of roads and washed out construction sites in the desert. Heavy snow fell in the higher mountains, up to two feet in Big Bear Lake. But only one inch at Lake Arrowhead and Idyllwild.

• 1941: A heavy storm hit the San Gabriel Mountains and Mojave Desert on this day through 3/14. Victorville received 1.78 inches. The Mojave River flooded homes in the Oro Grande Wash. In Wrightwood three houses were destroyed from a mudslide in Heath Canyon. Mud and debris six feet deep covered Lone Pine Road.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you're a surfer and you want to make a positive impact in your community, join the North County Board Meeting! If you don't know by now (which I'm sure you do since I tout the NCBM almost monthly), we're a group of business professionals that support local business, do charitable work, network, and find an excuse to surf (like we need one). Want to get involved? Here's the perfect opportunity: We'll be having our 6th annual charity golf tournament on Friday, May 22nd. Our goal this year is to purchase action sports equipment to benefit underserved youth in our community and we'd like you to join us. We'll be at the world famous Goat Hill Park again; lunch will be provided, we'll lose a few balls, drink a cold one or two, and we'll have a ton of prizes as usual. And don't worry if you're not much of a golfer- none of us are! It's a good way to start a long weekend and a great way to support your community. As in year's past, we'll most likely sell out, so be sure to reserve your spot asap:

• Hole sponsorships are $250
• Green fees are $90 before April 30th and $100 after
• Payment options:
• Checks make payable to North County Board Meeting and deliver to Agency 73, 244 N Coast Hwy 101, Encinitas, CA 92024
• Credit cards please reach out Rich Clark at: rclark@fuzionpayments.com

Special thanks to our title sponsor Venture LLP; advisers and advocates for business clients through expertise, ethics and human connection. 

And if you can't make the event but would like to still help our cause, we can always use raffle prizes, swag bag goodies, hole sponsorships, etc. Please give me a shout at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions. Thanks for the support. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Photoshop at it's finest. This wave originally was a 2', windblown, closeout with 50 guys in he line up. Then will a little Photoshop magic... BAM! One of the 7 Wonders of the Surfing World. Wait to you see the video of me surfing like Italo!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

One Of The Lesser Known Greek Gods

Figured Out The Meaning Of Life

Invented A New Maneuver Called The 'Sewfront'. Basically It's The Opposite Of A Cutback

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

The return of Ol' Man Winter.

SURF:

Had a sneaky SW swell show up earlier in the week- underneath some strong W winds. Conditions cleaned up eventually and we were left with small but rideable surf the past few days. For the weekend, we get a return of Ol' Man Winter (actually, just his poor cousin Doug), with some showers, wind bump, and small but rideable surf from the NW. 

Look for waist high+ surf most everywhere tomorrow with leftover SW and chest high sets from the NW on Saturday/Sunday. The surf would probably be fun IF it wasn't for the weak cold front moving through this weekend. Here's the tides and sun (behind the clouds) this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset for Friday/Saturday are:
• 6:08 AM sunrise 
• 5:51 PM sunset 

• And if you don't know by now, Daylight Saving Time is Saturday night, so set your clocks ahead 1 hour when you go to bed! That means on Sunday, the sun is out from:
• 7:07 AM sunrise 
• 6:52 PM sunset. You can now surf until 7 PM! And in case you're wondering, the longest day of the year the sun sets at 8 PM on June 21st. 

• Water temps are still in the high 50's

• And tides are WAY crazy this weekend:
• 6' at sunrise
• -1.3' mid-afternoon
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

If this weekend is too mellow for you, then Ol' Man Winter has something for you next week. Forecast models have all kinds of stuff going on. First up is the lowering of our storm track meeting up with the Pineapple Express. Monday starts off small but the rain starts to increase in the afternoon. 

By Tuesday the rain may be heavy at times and the (storm) surf picks up to the head high range from the NW. The rain should continue on Wednesday and the surf holds but slightly changes course to the WSW as the storm moves down the Pacific. By Thursday the rain may finally taper off but the water should be filthy. After that, there's just small activity forecasted from the N Pacific but the S Pacific shows our first major storm of the season taking shape. 

If everything comes together, we could see overhead sets from the SW around the 16th through the 18th. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Tough call since the small surf this weekend may have some wind on it and the bigger W next week will have a lot of dirty water with it. So maybe not until the 16th?!...

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, winter makes a return the next 10 days with a small cold front this weekend and a solid one next week. Look for nice cool weather tomorrow, then a weak cold front Saturday/Sunday with a little bit of wind and a little bit of showers. Monday starts off cloudy then rain should hit later in the day. Tuesday/Wednesday look to be a mess with 1-2" forecasted and hopefully gone by Thursday. Shouldn't be a lot of wind with this storm- mainly rain. For next weekend, it's anyone's guess. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

From time to time on THE Surf Report and the North County Surf blog, I’ll mention various weather terms to describe conditions for the upcoming week and how it will impact the surf. Terms such as cold fronts, low pressure systems, wind patterns, etc. and thought it would be a good time to go in to detail with the help of our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Here’s a quick rundown on what makes up the weather around us:

Imagine if our weather on Earth were completely motionless, had a flat dry landscape and an untilted axis. This of course is not the case; if it were, the weather would be very different. The local weather that impacts our daily lives results from large global patterns in the atmosphere caused by the interactions of solar radiation, Earth's large ocean, diverse landscapes, and motion in space.

Global Winds

Earth’s orbit around the sun and its rotation on a tilted axis causes some parts of Earth to receive more solar radiation than others. This uneven heating produces global circulation patterns. For example, the abundance of energy reaching the equator produces hot humid air that rises high into the atmosphere. A low pressure area forms at the surface and a region of clouds forms at altitude. The air eventually stops rising and spreads north and south towards the Earth's poles. About 2000 miles from the equator, the air falls back to Earth's surface blowing towards the pole and back to the equator. Six of these large convection currents cover the Earth from pole to pole.

Air Masses

These global wind patterns drive large bodies of air called air masses. Air masses are thousands of feet thick and extend across large areas of the Earth. The location over which an air mass forms will determine its characteristics. For example, air over the tropical ocean becomes exceptionally hot and humid. Air over a high latitude continent may become cold and dry. You have probably noticed the temperature rapidly dropping on a nice warm day as a cold air mass pushed a warm one out the way.

Fronts

The location where two air masses meet is called a front. They can be indirectly observed using current weather maps, which can be used to track them as the move across the Earth. Cold fronts, occur where a cold air mass is replacing a warmer air mass (as in the case of this weekend here in Southern California). Warm fronts occur where warm air replaces cold air.

Jet Streams

The local weather conditions that we experience at the Earth's surface are related to these air masses and fronts. However the environment far above us impacts their movement. High in the atmosphere, narrow bands of strong wind, such as the jet streams, steer weather systems and transfer heat and moisture around the globe- like in the case of the storm next week here in San Diego.

Coriolis Effect

As they travel across the Earth, air masses and global winds do not move in straight lines. Similar to a person trying to walk straight across a spinning Merry-Go-Round, winds get deflected from a straight-line path as they blow across the rotating Earth. In the Northern Hemisphere air veers to the right and in the Southern Hemisphere to the left. This motion can result in large circulating weather systems, as air blows away from or into a high or low pressure area. Hurricanes and our Aleutian low pressure storms are examples of these cyclonic systems.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Reason # 12,894 why I L-O-V-E New Zealand (besides Kiwi fruit, Sir Edmund Hilary, Raglan, Kiwi birds, and no snakes). This looks like a reverse Lowers. Notice anything (or should I say anyone) missing?... 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious

Going To Introduce A Bill To Congress In Which The Sun Always Sets At 8 PM

Had A Small Part In the Lesser Known 'Beyond Burnt Boards'