THE Surf Report

 

Get It While It's Hot!

SURF:

Small surf this week was met with partially sunny skies and water temps holding in the low 70's. 

For this weekend, we've got a couple fun things on the radar. First up is combo SW groundswell and NW windswell for chest high sets. Considering how small it's been recently, chest high is nothing to sneeze at. We also have a chance of tropical weather on Sunday so that should liven things up along the coast. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:01 AM sunrise 
• 7:49 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• We're finally headed towards El Nino type water temps. Currently, most spots are hovering around 72 degrees- which is about 2 degrees warmer than normal. And our peak water temps usually happen towards the end of August; so we have that going for us.

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
  • 2' at sunrise
  • 3.5' mid-morning
  • 2.5' at lunch
  • up to 6' at sunset

FORECAST:

Things are starting to pick up (slightly). 

A storm off S American will send straight S swell to the OC towards Thursday of next week. Good for the US Open- not much for SD. We also have NW windswell most of next week for waist high sets. Hopefully that doesn't knock our water temps down a notch. 

And if the models are right (chuckle), we could see a hurricane mid-week off Baja and potentially fun surf towards next weekend. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

Nice weather this weekend with low clouds in the AM and mostly sunny skies late in the day. If you're looking for excitement, models show monsoonal moisture headed to Southern California for Sunday/Monday. Look for a slight chance of showers at the coast and most definitely thunderstorms in the mountains/deserts. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

• Friday/Saturday. Low clouds in the AM, mostly sunny late in the day. Temps 75/68
• Sunday/Monday. Chance of showers! Temps 75/65
• 2nd half of next week: Mostly sunny and temps 75/68

BEST BET:

This weekend with small combo swell, nice weather, and water temps in the low 70's.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Not sure if you saw, but um, water temps in lower Florida (i.e. the Florida Keys) may have hit 100+ degrees this week. Temps have since cooled to the lower 90's (cooled being a relative term) but regardless if the sea surface temperatures hit 100, it was probably mid to high 90's and did significant damage to the coral reefs. Here's the Washington Post with more information:

Excessively hot waters off the coast of South Florida rose to an unfathomable level Monday evening. A buoy in Manatee Bay, about 40 miles south of Miami, posted a temperature of 101.1 degrees at 6 p.m. after a morning low of 91 degrees. Temperatures remained at or above 100 from 5 p.m. through late evening.

For comparison, the “ideal” temperature of a hot tub is 100 to 102 degrees, according to jacuzzi.com. The Manatee Bay reading may be near the highest sea surface temperature observed globally , although there are no official records maintained for ocean temperatures.

After reviewing data obtained through Everglades National Park, Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist for television affiliate WPLG, pointed out that the temperature at the Manatee Bay location rose as high as 102 degrees in August 2017.

A study published in 2020 proposed that the highest sea surface temperature reliably observed may have been 99.7 degrees in the middle of Kuwait Bay, wrote Jeff Masters, a meteorologist and writer for Yale Climate Connections, in a thread on Twitter.

The temperature at Manatee Bay was measured Monday at shallow levels about five feet below the surface — where waters can easily heat up. Masters tweeted that it’s not clear whether the temperature is valid because of “contamination of the measurement by land effects and organic matter in the water.”

The Manatee Bay buoy temperature reading was among several extreme values in South Florida’s offshore waters. To the southwest, a buoy near Johnson Key topped out at 98.4 degrees. The temperature hovered at or above 98 degrees for several hours during the evening.

A majority of buoys in the area reached or surpassed 95 degrees during the day. In fact, the average of the two dozen observation locations in and around Florida Bay was right around 96 degrees during the early evening.

The water temperatures were remarkable for being even higher than air temperatures. Masters explained on Twitter that “sunlit shallow water surrounded by dark land can have [a sea surface temperature] that exceeds the air temperature.”

The extreme ocean heat comes amid Florida’s hottest July on record. Miami, Key West, Naples, Tampa and many other cities are seeing their toastiest July. Most of South Florida is also experiencing its hottest year on record thus far, according to data compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Miami has reached at least 90 degrees on 64 days, while Fort Myers and Key West have done so on 97 and 46 days, respectively, all of which are year-to-date records. The heat index in Miami, taking into account humidity as well as air temperature, has reached at least 100 degrees on a record 44 straight days.

Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures have averaged 80 to 83 degrees over the past several weeks in these areas — allowing ocean temperatures to remain extremely warm.

Scorching waters off South Florida are only one of several regions in the Northern Hemisphere experiencing a marine heat wave, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Watch, which monitors ocean temperatures around the planet.

Other ocean hot spots include the Mediterranean Sea, which reached its hottest level on record Monday, averaging 83.1 degrees; the waters west of Peru; and the North Atlantic Ocean, where water temperatures are off the charts.

The abnormally warm waters surrounding South Florida and the Florida Keys are already damaging coral reefs, according to scientists. The Coral Restoration Foundation, a nonprofit based in Key Largo that works to preserve and restore corals, wrote that the historically high water temperatures are creating “a severe and urgent crisis,” in a news release late last week.

On Thursday, scientists at the foundation visited Sombrero Reef, which is south of Marathon in the Florida Keys, to assess its health. “What we found was unimaginable — 100% coral mortality,” said Phanor Montoya-Maya, the restoration program manager at the foundation, in the release. “We have also lost almost all the corals in the Looe Key Nursery in the Lower Keys.”

The foundation said the situation “underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.”

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Proof that sheep are smarter than you think. I bet the even have boards stashed on the beach.

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Noteworthy
Permanent Vacation
40 Years Later I Still Can't Decide If I'm Regular Or Goofy

THE Surf Report

 

I'm Ready When You Are.

SURF:

Definitely been an odd summer. There's been surf in the OC- but small in SD. Sun is out- but patchy fog has lingered at the beach. Water temps are nice- but not El Nino warm. For the weekend- looks to be the same. Just background S groundswell and NW windswell for waist high sets- and pleasant conditions. When the next big swell arrives- I'll be ready! And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 5:56 AM sunrise 
• 7:54 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• As advertised above, water temps are pleasant- and back to normal for this time of year- but not overly warm. Most spots in southern SD are 70, northern SD/southern OC up to 74, and LA 70

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
• 0.5' at sunrise
• 4.5' after lunch
• down to 2.5' towards sunset

FORECAST:

For being an El Nino summer, this hurricane season has started out with a dud. The La Nina hangover off the west coast (colder than average water temps) are keeping storm formation to a minimum. 

Models though show a potential hurricane forming late next week which may give us surf towards the end of July. 

We also have a storm forming off Antarctica tomorrow which shows more promise for chest high SSW- towards the end of the month too. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

Looks like more great summer weather as far as the eye can see. High pressure is in control and temps are soaring in the desert southwest. Along the coast though, our mild water temps are keeping us at a comfortable 75 degrees for the near future. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

• This weekend through next week: Patchy fog in the mornings burning off to hazy sunshine in the afternoons. Temps 77/68.

BEST BET:

Next weekend if the storms (southern hemisphere & Baja) form.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Even though this summer doesn't look like a typical El Nino (tropical clouds overhead, water temps near 80, firing hurricane surf), it's still building. How do we know? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) can explain:

The chance that our young El Niño will continue through the winter is greater than 90%. Why are forecasters so confident? What are the chances of a strong El Niño? And what effect does El Niño have on global climate patterns? We have a lot to talk about today, so let’s get to it!

The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures the temperature of the surface of the central tropical Pacific Ocean, is our primary metric for El Niño. It was 0.8 °C (1.4 ˚ F) above the long-term average (long term = 1991–2020) in June, according to our most consistent dataset, ERSSTv5. This is comfortably above the El Niño threshold of 0.5 °C.

The three-month-average Niño-3.4 Index, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was 0.5 °C for April–June 2023. In order to qualify as an El Niño year and be colored red in our historical record, the ONI must be at or above the threshold for at least 5 three-month periods. In this case, El Niño conditions would need to last through at least the August–October average to qualify. We have a confident forecast for this… but I’m getting ahead of myself. Back to the present!

El Niño is a coupled climate pattern, meaning the changes in the ocean temperature are paired with changes in the atmosphere. These changes show up in the Walker circulation, the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern over the tropical Pacific. The average Walker circulation is driven by the very warm waters in the far western Pacific and consists of rising air and storms over the far western Pacific and Indonesia, west-to-east winds aloft, descending air and dry conditions over the eastern Pacific, and the trade winds, east-to-west surface winds.

El Niño shifts this circulation by increasing the amount of rising air, clouds, and rain over those warmer-than-average waters in the central Pacific. The trade winds and the upper-level winds slow, and the overall circulation weakens. The weaker trade winds allow the surface to continue to warm, and a feedback mechanism is born.

Evidence for the atmospheric part of El Niño includes changes in tropical Pacific winds and cloud patterns. At this early stage of El Niño, the atmospheric response is present, but still quite weak, especially relative to the oceanic anomalies. We did observe more rain and clouds over the central Pacific and some drier conditions over Indonesia, which is typical for El Niño.  Also, the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of the Walker circulation strength, was in the bottom quarter of all June values, so respectably negative (negative indicates weaker). However, stronger El Niño events are usually preceded by bursts of much weaker trade winds, but we haven’t seen much of those so far.

Winds and atmospheric conditions always fluctuate more from month to month than ocean surface temperatures, so this weak response isn’t a reason to doubt the forecast… yet. It’s still very likely that El Niño will continue at least through the end of the year, but this El Niño is taking place in the context of a very warm global ocean, and we don’t know how the warm globe will affect El Niño’s atmospheric conditions.

One potential outcome is a weaker atmospheric response than we might otherwise expect. The strength of the atmospheric response is related to the pattern of sea surface temperature throughout the tropics. When El Niño is clearly the loudest voice in the room, as it was during the 1997­–98 El Niño, the atmospheric response is clear. However, when the western Pacific and the rest of the tropics are also warm, the response may be more muddled. This outcome  is important not just for El Niño itself, but also because many of El Niño’s impacts on global weather and climate patterns are communicated around the world via these atmospheric changes.

Now it’s time to talk forecast. Our computer climate models are consistently predicting that El Niño will continue through the winter, providing a major source of confidence.

Also, there is quite a lot of warmer-than-average water under the surface of the tropical Pacific. In fact, the temperature of the subsurface in June 2023 was the third-warmest June value in our record, which goes back to 1979. This warm subsurface will feed the surface for the next few months, helping to sustain El Niño conditions.

How about potential strength? El Niño’s maximum Niño-3.4 Index values, aka its peak, almost always occur in November­–January. We estimate about an 80% chance that this El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C. These thresholds are, respectively, how we categorize moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño events, but this is just an informal classification. Generally, the stronger the sea surface temperature anomaly, the stronger the atmospheric response, and the more consistent the pattern of El Niño’s remote impacts on rain and temperature patterns. However, as I mentioned above, the warm global ocean may complicate this relationship.

That said, El Niño is still our best source of information for upcoming seasonal weather and climate, despite operating against a backdrop of higher global temperatures. El Niño’s impact on global precipitation and temperature patterns is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere winter, both because that’s when El Niño reaches its peak, and because the jet stream, which is influenced by El Niño, is a major player for winter weather.

Other parts of the globe may see impacts before that. June-August dryness is common for India, the Maritime Continent, eastern Australia, and the Caribbean. Warmth is common in the Caribbean and parts of South America. And then there’s the hurricane seasons in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Waves look to be small in the near future so a surf sacrifice is in order! Come on down to Broad Street Dough Co. tomorrow (Friday) and get your stoke on. Grab a cup of Joe, have one of their world famous donuts, network, talk a little surf, and learn about the North County Board Meeting's big event next month. We'll be there at 8 AM. Thanks for supporting your community and we'll see you tomorrow!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Goofyfoot heaven. Or regularfoot heaven if you can surf really really really fast on your backside. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Totally Mature
In Talks To Be The Next James Bond
Made The Final 5!

THE Surf Report

 

Cool Is Cool?

SURF:

For months now, I've been touting the return of El Nino; water temps in the low 80's, more intense hurricanes, and a few warm tropical clouds overhead this summer. But now that the world is on fire (more on that below), I'm ok with air temps in the high 70's at the beaches and water temps in the low 70's. 

For this weekend, we've got small SSW swells AND a touch of building NW windswell. 

There may also be small waist high hurricane surf from Calvin- but he's small and moving to Hawaii. Regardless... we have a chance of chest high sets most everywhere on Saturday! Strike up the band! And the bonus of course- boardshorts are finally on tap. Sunday drops to the waist high+ range- so get on it tomorrow or Saturday. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 5:51 AM sunrise 
• 7:58 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• We are literally surrounded by cooler than average sea surface temperatures here in Southern California but we've been able to squeeze out a few buoy readings of 71 today. 

• And tides are pretty mellow this weekend (except for sunset):
• 1' at sunrise
• 3.5' late morning
• drops slightly to 2.5' mid-afternoon
• and 6' at sunset

FORECAST:

Nothing happening in Antarctica recently, so no SW swells of interest for next week. 

Charts show Hurricane Dora forming towards the middle of the week- and it could behave like Calvin- which means it may not get big AND head towards Hawaii too- so don't hold your breath for swell formation. If we do see anything from Dora- it will be next Saturday/Sunday. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

Summer high pressure is in control if you didn't notice. That means great beach weather- and awful weather in our deserts (Palm Springs could hit 120 this weekend). Looks like patchy fog may develop in the mornings but expect mostly sunny skies in the afternoons. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

• This weekend: Mostly sunny skies and temps 75 during the day along the coast and high 60's at night- not much of a cool down.
• Monday through next week: Patchy fog in the AM, sunny skies by lunch, and temps 70/65 along the coast.

BEST BET:

Saturday with small but fun combo swell OR... maybe next weekend with the potential of small S swell from Dora.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Is it hot around here or is it just me? It's not unusual to have records broken during the year- but all at once? And now? It's hard to keep track of everything. But let's try anyway:

• The world just sweltered through its hottest June in the 174-year global climate record. The average global surface (land and ocean) temperature in June was 1.89 degrees F (1.05 degrees C) above average, ranking June 2023 as Earth’s warmest June on record. June 2023 was 0.23 of a degree F (0.13 of a degree C) warmer than the previous record set in June 2020. June 2023 also marked the 47th-consecutive June and the 532nd-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average. The first half of 2023 ranked as the third warmest such YTD on record, with a global temperature of 1.82 degrees F (1.01 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 56.3 degrees F (13.5 degrees C). According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record and a 97% chance it will rank among the top five.
• Death Valley—which sits nearly 300 feet below sea level in the middle of California’s Mojave Desert— is known as the hottest place on Earth and in 1913 set an all-time heat record of a blistering 134 degrees. Scientists, however, have come to doubt the accuracy of that temperature reading, one of multiple records in the early 1900s that has come under intense scrutiny. In 2013, the World Meteorological Organization decertified what had been the world’s all-time hottest temperature, a 90-year-old measurement of 136.4 degrees in Al Azizia, Libya, after an evaluation found the recording faulty. Christopher Burt, who worked on the WMO decertification team, called the 1913 Death Valley “100% bogus” and likely came from an inexperienced temperature observer. Scientists believe Death Valley set the world’s all-time heat record once again in 2020, before outdoing itself the following year, though temperature measurements in both cases fell just shy of the 1913 record. The first of two recent world records came in August 2020 at Furnace Creek, when the high temperature reached 129.9 degrees. The second was in July 2021, when the temperature inched up to an even 130 degrees, believed to be the hottest reliable measurement of all time. This weekend though, Death Valley may hit an all-time high with a forecasted temp of 131. I hope they're wrong.

• For the third consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature hit a record high as weak El Nino conditions that emerged in May continued to strengthen in June. Globally, June 2023 set a record for the highest monthly sea surface temperature anomaly of any month in NOAA’s climate record. Additionally, Earth’s ocean surface temperature anomaly — which indicates how much warmer or cooler temperatures are from the long-term average — were the highest ever recorded, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Spots along the Oregon and Washington coast are running about 5 degrees warmer than they should be (65 degrees vs. 60) and don't get me started on the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Keys. Water temps are normally high 80's this time of year but certain areas are seeing temps from 92-97. Yep- close to 100 degrees along the shore. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Would you rather have small waves but get to wear boardshorts (i.e this weekend in So-Cal) or get 6' barrels but have to wear a 5/4/3 fullsuit with gloves and booties (like the Pic of the Week)? Can we have our cake and eat it too?...

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Memorable
I Find 131 Degree Heat Kind Of Relaxing
If I Wear Boardshorts On Shortboards Does That Mean I Have To Wear Boardlongs on Longboards?

THE Surf Report

 

La Nina: The Unwelcome House Guest

SURF:

Still on the small side this week (unless you live in the OC)- and the water is still cooler than I like- but at least the sun is out! Even though El Nino is in charge for most of the Pacific- the lingering La Nina off the CA coast has been slow to dissipate. The result is cooler than average water temps, cooler than average air temps along the coast, and the occasional stubborn marine layer. For the weekend, we have background S swell for more waist high waves (and chest high+ surf in the OC). We'll also have a touch of small NW windswell. And here's the sun/tides/water temps for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 5:48 AM sunrise 
• 7:59 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• La Nina is continuing the NW winds offshore- so we're stuck with water temps anywhere from 61-67 along the southern CA coast. Let's hope you're local beach is 67! For the heat wave next week (more on that below), I'm hoping we warm into the 70's finally.

• And tides are pretty mellow this weekend:
• 1' at sunrise
• 0' mid morning
• almost 5' late afternoon
• and 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

There's a small chance I'll be turning on the Emergency Boardriding System (EBS) next week. Small chance. 

We finally had a storm form of New Zealand last week which is ideally aimed for San Diego. The storm wasn't big but we may finally see some chest high SW swell around here by Tuesday. The southern hemisphere goes quiet after that BUT... the tropics look to be active again. The fly in the ointment of course is that cooler than average water temps off CA and Baja. 

If the hurricanes can grow large enough off Mainland Mexico and then not die quickly as they hit our swell window- we could see S swell around the 12th and maybe the 17th. And then I'll turn on the EBS. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, La Nina has been slow to disappear in southern CA as low pressure off our coast has kept a steady NW flow along the coast, resulting in cool air and water temps. Looks like high pressure will start to build late this weekend and peak towards Wednesday/Thursday. Could La Nina finally be leaving us? (Don't let the door hit you on the way out). If so, water temps could finally warm up to normal (over 70) while the marine layer gets squashed in the afternoon. Result would be high 70's at the beaches (and maybe 120 in the deserts). That could last into next weekend. If so, you'll find me in boardshorts. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

• This weekend: Low clouds in the AM, sunny skies by lunch. Temps 70/62
• Monday/Tuesday: More sun than we've seen and temps 75/65 along the coast.
• Mid week to next weekend: Lots of sun and temps near 80 at the beaches?...

BEST BET:

Early to mid-next week with fun SW swell. OR... mid-week and/or the 17th IF... those hurricanes come to fruition.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As I've reported a few times over the years, we have an abundance of juvenile great whites off our coast that seem to be keeping to themselves. That's the good news. What our new problem seems to be is aggressive sea lions. Here's the latest from NBC San Diego:

A sea lion bit a teenager twice while swimming off the coast of Del Mar on July 4th. SeaWorld said the animal may be another victim of a toxic algae bloom in the Pacific.

Dane Blair, 14, was celebrating the holiday with his family when the sea lion attacked Tuesday. Blair said he was in the water when the sea lion made eye contact from about 30 feet away before the animal dipped beneath the surface. “Next thing I know it takes a big bite here, on my leg,” he said while pointing to his right knee. He said the sea lion then bit him on his right buttocks.

“It definitely hurt my butt because it took a big, a big bite,” said Blair, a soon-to-be freshman at La Costa Canyon High School. Blair said he had to make it back to shore with the sea lion’s teeth attached to his backside. “And so, I’m freaking out right now.” He said he was able to shake the animal loose on the sand and run to his family.

Blair's dad Brian took smartphone pictures and videos of the wounds which were both deep enough to bleed but not deep enough to require stitches. Blair's shorts had teeth marks torn into the right side. Meanwhile, the sea lion didn’t move from the sand where the water occasionally splashes against it. “We’ve been coming to this beach for over 20 years. I’ve never even seen a beached seal or sea lion here,” Brian Blair said.

Lifeguards were notified and someone called SeaWorld. Something wasn’t right with the sea lion. “It looked really tired. Its eyes were closed, and its mouth was twitching,” said Dane. “It was lethargic,” added Brian. “It clearly wasn’t doing well.”

A SeaWorld spokeswoman said all the signs point to a naturally occurring algae bloom currently infecting marine life off San Diego’s coast. SeaWorld veterinarian Kelsey Herrick, DVM, said fish eat the algae but only animals that eat the fish are affected. “It does change the behavior and cause neurological symptoms and cardiac symptoms in sea lions and dolphins,” she explained.

“If this algae bloom is really causing animals to act erratically, we probably need to be a little bit more careful,” said Brian Blair. SeaWorld was able to capture the sea lion. The organization said it’s doing what they can to care for the animal. “I hope it gets better,” signed Dane.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

If the water right now is low 60's up there- count me in.

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Constantly Recognized In Public
Wore A Lamp Shade At Michael Rubin's
Hurricane Hunter