Friday, October 4, 2013

THE Surf Report


Not a fan of Santa Ana. But I love Santa Ana winds.

SURF:
It's on! The stars are starting to align today- we've got leftover chest high sets from the NW, new chest high sets from the SW, and the offshore 'Santa Anas' are moving down the state to OC and SD.
Look for the combination of sets to give shoulder high waves most everywhere today and the offshores to be strongest in the OC today and SD on Saturday. Saturday has leftover chest high SW and Sunday is another great beach day as high pressure continues the offshore winds- albeit lighter- and we'll have leftover waist-chest high SW- best in the OC.
Water temps are high 60's and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, 6' at 10am, down to 0' at 4pm, and back up to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

Both swells should be gone by Monday and it looks pretty small to start the school and work week. Charts show another late season storm in Antarctica spinning today which should give us waist high SSW swell towards the middle of next week in SD and chest high sets in the OC.
Models also show another shot of NW taking shape for next week that will give us waist high swell in north county SD and chest high sets in southern SD. BUT... conditions may be dicey as we may have our first shot of showers the middle of next week?! More on that below...

WEATHER:

The advertised offshore 'Santa Ana' winds are taking shape this morning in LA/OC and will hit San Diego later in the day. Look for sunny skies, low humidities, offshore winds, and temps in the low 80's today. High pressure will position itself a little better on Saturday where offshore winds will be a little stronger on Saturday for SD. Beach temps will also climb to the mid-80's and almost to 90. Winds start to back off by Sunday and temps get back to near 80. Models then show a cold front coming through southern California mid-week for maybe our first shot of showers. Until then- enjoy the great weather this weekend.

BEST BET:
TODAY! Leftover NW windswell, new fun SW swell, and offshore winds. Oh- did I mention the water temps are still nice and trunks are in order?! Doesn't get better than this.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The BBC reported today that the health of the world’s oceans is deteriorating even faster than had previously been thought. A review from the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), warns that the oceans are facing multiple threats. They are being heated by climate change, turned slowly less alkaline by absorbing CO2, and suffering from overfishing and pollution. The report warns that dead zones formed by fertilizer run-off are a problem.  It says conditions are ripe for the sort of mass extinction event that has afflicted the oceans in the past. It says: “We have been taking the ocean for granted. It has been shielding us from the worst effects of accelerating climate change by absorbing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. “Whilst terrestrial temperature increases may be experiencing a pause, the ocean continues to warm regardless. For the most part, however, the public and policymakers are failing to recognize - or choosing to ignore - the severity of the situation.” It says the cocktail of threats facing the ocean is more powerful than the individual problems themselves. Coral reefs, for instance, are suffering from the higher temperatures and the effects of acidification whilst also being weakened by bad fishing practices, pollution, siltation and toxic algal blooms. IPSO, funded by charitable foundations, is publishing a set of five papers based on workshops in 2011 and 2012 in partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN’s) World Commission on Protected Areas. The reports call for world governments to halt CO2 increase at 450ppm. Any higher, they say, will cause massive acidification later in the century as the CO2 is absorbed into the sea. It urges much more focused fisheries management, and a priority list for tackling the key groups of chemicals that cause most harm. It wants the governments to negotiate a new agreement for the sustainable fishing in the high oceans to be policed by a new global high seas enforcement agency. The IUCN’s Prof Dan Laffoley said: "What these latest reports make absolutely clear is that deferring action will increase costs in the future and lead to even greater, perhaps irreversible, losses.  "The UN climate report confirmed that the ocean is bearing the brunt of human-induced changes to our planet. These findings give us more cause for alarm – but also a roadmap for action. We must use it." The co-coordinator, Prof Alex Rogers from Oxford University has been asked to advise the UN's own oceans assessment but he told BBC News he had led the IPSO initiative because: "It’s important to have something which is completely independent in any way from state influence and to say things which experts in the field felt was really needed to be said." He said concern had grown over the past year thanks to papers signaling that past extinctions had involved warming seas, acidification and low oxygen levels. All are on the rise today. He agreed there was debate on whether fisheries are recovering by better management following examples in the US and Europe, but said it seemed clear that globally they were not. He also admitted a debate about whether overall climate change would increase the amount of fish produced in the sea. Melting sea ice would increase fisheries near the poles whilst stratification of warmer waters in the tropics would reduce mixing of nutrients and lead to lower production, he said. He said dead zones globally appeared to be increasing although this may reflect increased reporting. "On ocean acidification, we are seeing effects that no-one predicted like the inability of fish to detect their environments properly. It’s clear that it will affect many species. We really do have to get a grip on what’s going on in the oceans," he said.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Yet another clip has hit the web this week of another new wavepool. Confused of all the different types of man-made waves out there? Technology got you down? Afraid of the planet being overrun by robots?! Fear not- the North County Surf blog has sorted it out all for you. Check out the full story on the blog. And of course a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Know what's great about this spot? Beside it being uncrowded? Beside it being throaty? Beside it being the perfect size? It's that it's completely unknown, it's got a full channel, and it's breaking a few feet from shore meaning the paddle is easy cheesy lemon squeezy.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Worldwide Phenomenon
Gruncle Stan
Shootin' the Curl With an Unlicensed 7'6" Gun