Good things come to those that wait.
SURF:
Fun surf this past week. I have to admit, I didn't expect much from the storm that sent us waves earlier in the week but it turned out to be kind of fun. Today we just have leftover waist high SW swell and overcast conditions again.
FORECAST:
No big surf on the horizon but we do have a couple storms on the charts that will send waves our way.
WEATHER:
Take this with a grain of salt, but I remember when we had the last significant El Nino in '97-'98, we had a very similar spring weather pattern- a bunch of weak cold fronts kept coming through and high pressure was no where to be found. As in the case of today (and most of April/May/early June), we have yet another weak low pressure system rolling through that will kick up some showers in the mountains and drizzle at the coast. Luckily for us, weak high pressure should set up by Sunday and we have nice weather- slightly above average air temps- for early next week. Then models again show weak fronts headed our way for late next week. And yes- cool air temps and clouds again.
BEST BET:
Wait until mid-week when we get a new little SW and better weather!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I swear El Nino lately has been a lot like the Kardashians- a bunch of hot air and not a lot of substance. And just like the Kardashians, El Nino won’t go away. Even though the atmospheric phenomenon didn’t pan out last winter, it hasn’t given up either. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (an 85% chance). Why do they believe this? Well for starters, the waters in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal- and getting warmer. What has that lead to? 3 tropical storms off Baja just 3 weeks into the season and 2 of them became major hurricanes. For reference, we’re only supposed to average 3-4 major hurricanes a season and the season goes until November 30th. I’m pretty confident we’ll get a few more major hurricanes if we have almost 6 months in the left in the season AND we haven’t hit the peak of our water temps yet. Forecasters are also gaining steam in their confidence now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier (i.e. their prediction of a solid El Nino earlier this year are on track). There’s 2 things they look at when forecasting an El Nino- strength and duration. While it’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” they mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in our region will peak at more than 2.7°F. above normal. 2.7°F may not seem like much of an increase, but when you spread it over the size of the equatorial Pacific, that’s a lot of energy you’re dealing with. Here’s what NOAA and the CPC had to say this week:
What’s happening right now?
During the month of May, forecasters saw increases in a lot of the El Nino indicators. Sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from average) were up all across the tropical Pacific, and the most recent reading was 2.1°F above average. Both the lower-level and upper-level winds along the equator were substantially weaker than average last month, characteristic of El Niño’s weakened Walker Circulation. This feedback between the higher sea surface temperature anomalies and the atmosphere is critical to both perpetuating and strengthening an El Niño event, and to communicating the effects of El Niño to other areas of the globe.
Signs of another downwelling Kelvin wave have begun to appear in the upper levels of the equatorial Pacific. This reinforcing source of warmer-than-average waters (i.e. Kelvin wave) follows the strong Kelvin wave that has been slowly moving east since February. The consistently warmer waters are reflective of the slower changes we’d expect to see when the ocean-atmosphere system has settled into an El Nino event, as opposed to the shorter-term changes that dominate the rest of the time.
What signs are suggesting a possible strong event?
The physical observations described above are a source of confidence that this event is continuing to build. Also, most climate models are forecasting a continued increase in the equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies, and many forecast a peak in the early winter above 2.7°F (and even some above an absurd 3.6°F).
It’s important to remember, though, that we only have a handful of strong El Niño events in the historical record—seven since 1950. And only three of those saw values of 3.6°F or higher: 1972-73, 1997-98 and 1982-83). Imagine if we’d only had seven hurricanes in the history of record-keeping; it would make it much harder to understand and predict how a future hurricane could develop. So, while we’re confident that this El Niño event will continue, there’s still plenty of uncertainty about how it will evolve.
That said… what would a strong event mean?
El Nino impacts on North American weather and climate are most noticeable in the winter. This is largely because winter weather is governed more by large-scale storms closer to home (i.e. Aleutian storms) than summer weather, when local effects (e.g. isolated monsoon thunderstorms) tend to be more important. El Niño events affect the strength and position of the jet stream, and tilt the odds toward more rain than average along the West coast and in the Southeast during the winter.
El Niño loads the dice in favor of certain impacts, but it doesn’t guarantee them. However, stronger events tend to lead to more predictable effects. One forecaster was asked if they should repair the leaks in the roof of their RV before they travel this winter… based on the current trends, the forecaster said it was probably a good idea…
Globally, this El Niño event is likely to lead to higher global temperatures, possibly record-breaking. And as mentioned above, the tropical Pacific hurricane season is already breaking records, while the Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be quieter than average—both effects linked to El Niño.
Many, many different components are at work in the global climate system, making exact predictions impossible. However, the development of a climate phenomenon like El Niño can make some outcomes more likely than others, which is why we follow it so closely. We’ll keep you posted as this event continues.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Got a buddy who's going to this spot in a few months. Don't know why he wants to leave the low clouds, drizzle, cold air temps, crowds, and cool water temps here in San Diego. We got it all!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
More Skill Than Luck
Over Solar. Powering My Home By Moon Beams
Local Anywhere I Paddle Out
