THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Fall is Fantastic! (In contrast to last week when I said 'Fall is Failing').

SURF:

My how quickly things change. Had a good dousing of rain last week, some small NW swell, and not much to talk about as far as shredding goes. Today on the other hand, the weather was fantastic, we had new SW swell fill in, and things are looking up for the weekend.

First up Hurricane Oho. Huh? Never heard of him? Me neither. This storm formed in the central Pacific off Hawaii so I didn't pay much attention to it as the normal course of action was for the storm to head to Asia. But oh no, Oho had something else in mind. Oho decided to go NW and head towards British Columbia. Now only a tropical storm with 70mph winds, Oho will send head high+ surf our way for late Saturday into Sunday. All the while some fun chest high SW swell will be in the background too. AND the weather is going to be hot all weekend! Hot damn!

Tides the next few days are 5' at sunrise, down to 1' at 2pm, and up to 4' at sunset. Water temps are still shockingly warm for October at 72 degrees. Along with the warm weather this weekend, the lifeguards will be giving out tickets for anyone found wearing rubber in the lineup.

FORECAST:

After fun SW swell from Oho this weekend, Oho will continue to move towards British Columbia and we'll get WNW swell from it on Monday.

We've also got a good SW swell showing up from the southern hemisphere. Not as big as Oho but we'll still see shoulder high sets filling in Monday and lasting into Tuesday. After that, the southern hemisphere still has a lot of activity but most of the storms are oriented E to W and not ideally S to N as to aim swell our way. Most of next week though should have waist to chest high SW.

Models then show another hurricane forming off Hawaii and remarkably it may make a similar path as Oho and head N to British Columbia- sending more SW to NW swell our way late next week. Odd, but who am I to judge? Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Speaking of odd, that's been our weather the past 12 months. From the worst drought on record to the wettest summer we've ever had to a good start to the rainy season this fall with up to an inch of rain last week. Adding to the odd theme, high pressure is in control this weekend and we'll have beach temps in the mid-80's. And remember that low pressure system that gave us rain earlier in the week? It's supposed to make a loop back from the desert SW over the weekend AND HEAD BACK OUR WAY for a 2nd blow. Amazing. If the forecast holds true, we'll get clouds and cooler temps to start the work week then showers towards Wednesday/Thursday. This is supposed to be the normal time of year for weather while El Nino this winter is going to be the the weird one. Can't wait to see how that plays out.
 
BEST BET:
No brainer- Saturday. Good Oho swell, awesome beach weather, and trunks.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So we had a lot of rain this summer and we’ve already had a good dose of rain to start the fall- with more on the way next week. So it looks like El Nino is on track for a wild winter. But just how wild? Will this be the Godzilla El Nino as predicted a few months ago? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported recently that this El Niño continues to rank among the strongest on record (which started in 1950- caveman hieroglyphics before that don’t count).

The July-September 3-month average sea surface temperature  was 1.5°C above normal, third in line behind July-September 1987 (1.6°C) and 1997 (1.7°C). The atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures is keeping pace, too:  the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) is -2.2. This is second to 1997’s -2.6, and well ahead of the next two El Niños on the list (1972 and 1982, tied at -1.4). The near-surface winds along the equator in the Pacific, which are important for maintaining the sea surface temperature anomalies, have lagged a bit behind the stronger El Niños so far. These winds, which blow from east to west under normal conditions, weaken during El Niño, allowing the warmer water in the western Pacific to move into the central and eastern regions. In 1997-98, the strongest event on record, the winds in the central Pacific weakened so much they reversed, and blew from west to east during October and November. This September did have consistently weaker-than-average winds, though, and October has started off with a strong westerly wind burst. NOAA will be watching this region closely in the upcoming months to see how it affects this winter's El Nino weather patterns.

So with all that scientific mumbo-jumbo being said, this El Nino looks to be strong- but possibly not breaking the record shattering ’97-’98 beast. More like the ’82-’83 winter- which was a doozy in it’s own right. Regardless, the map above highlights areas of the U.S. that experience temperature or precipitation conditions that may be different from normal when an El Niño is present. Impacts from El Niño are most noticeable during the late fall through early spring months. During late spring and summer, climate patterns may not be affected at all.

In instances when a strong El Niño occurs, there can be large impacts to communities and the U.S. economy. Strong El Niños are often associated with heavy winter rains across California, which could bring much needed moisture to a region devastated by drought. Even if above normal precipitation falls across California, one season of above-normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought.

Meanwhile, heavy rains in the southern half of the U.S. could lead to flooding causing widespread damage to towns and communities, lives and livelihoods. In addition, El Niño could elevate the risk for severe weather across the Southeast during winter. On the other hand, above-average late fall to winter temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S. might mean a milder winter and lower energy costs. It’s important to understand that a strong El Niño only favors these impacts, but doesn’t guarantee they will happen.

The main influence of El Niño in the U.S. summer tends to be on hurricanes:
-More tropical cyclones in the Pacific (and as evident this past summer- more rain too)
-Fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Some of the patterns that we may see during a strong El Niño this fall/winter in the U.S. include:
-Above-average temperatures in portions of Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
-Below-average rainfall in the northern Rockies, and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
-Above-average rainfall in southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Florida.

So let the games begin: An increase in above average rainfall to peak around Christmas time due to the 2nd strongest El Nino on record. Just what I asked Santa for.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Is Indo really better than anything we have in California? My vote is yes.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Headliner
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