Thanksgiving is being replaced this year by Groundhog Day.
SURF:
FORECAST:
Monday starts off small again and Tuesday isn't any better, then we start to get a pick up out of the NW by Wednesday. Remember that storm last Monday that brought double overhead NW windswell and 50 mph wind gusts in San Diego? Looks like we have more of that late Wednesday into Thanksgiving. I don't think the wind will be as strong (most likely 30 mph) or the surf that large (probably 8' instead) but it will be a total mess regardless. But hey- you're supposed to be socializing with the grandma anyway on Turkey Day so who cares. After that it stays breezy through the end of the week.
There's a couple more storms on the charts in the northern AND southern hemispheres but we most likely won't see swell from them until the end of the month or early December.
WEATHER:
As mentioned at the top of THE Surf Report, our weather pattern has been in rut with windy storms sandwiched between sunny days. We've got great weather on tap this weekend with the fog returning by Monday and Tuesday being a transition day. Wednesday the winds kick in again and we've got a chance of showers lasting into Thanksgiving. Cool breezy weather will last in to Friday. After that we start to roll into December and I'm hoping the real rain producing storms finally arrive and get us out of Groundhog Day. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Do you like sunny skies and tiny surf? Then get it tomorrow! Or windy cloudy days with overhead lumps? Then get it Thursday!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As we wait for the ‘El Nino Winter’ by basking in summer-like 80 degree sunshine and water temps that feel more like the last day of school than Thanksgiving, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported recently that a key indicator for the strength of El Niño has reached a record high. Just more hype for the weather pattern known for causing extreme droughts, storms and floods becoming one of the strongest ever.
As we all know by now, El Nino is driven by warm surface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean and its strength is measured by how much higher temperatures are over a three-month average. In the week ending Nov. 16, temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region (the area SE of Hawaii on the equator), were 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. It was the highest reading in data that goes back to 1990, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said.
The previous highest reading was 2.8 degrees Celsius above average (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) in the week of Nov. 26, 1997 (the strongest El Nino on record). However, El Niño-related impacts have been occurring around the globe for months already, and will continue for several months after the warmest temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific Ocean. For example, during the 1997-98 El Niño, the Niño3.4 Index peaked at 2.33°C (4.19 F) in November and the most substantial U.S. effects occurred through the early spring of 1998.
In case you’re unimpressed by even a 2°C (3.6°F) change, let’s do some math (pop quiz hot shot)! The area covered by the Niño3.4 region is a little more than 2.4 million square miles. One cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg (2200 lbs). So the top two meters (6.6 feet) of the Niño3.4 region contains about 12 quadrillion kilograms (about 13.6 trillion tons) of water. The energy required to raise one kilogram of water one degree Celsius is 4.19 kilojoules (Have I lost you yet? Don’t worry- here comes the good part). A 2°C increase in just the top two meters of the Niño3.4 region adds up to an extra 100 quadrillion kilojoules (95 quadrillion BTUs). What?! Answer: THAT’S ABOUT EQUAL TO THE ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE UNITED STATES. That’s a lot of fuel for the fire. Now you know why our storms during an El Nino are supercharged.
As mentioned above, El Niño conditions normally reach maximum strength between October and January, then persist until early spring. As far as predictions go from NOAA, they’re expecting the storms to start rolling through in December and peaking in January/February. Considering the weather has been fantastic this fall with not a drop of rain in sight (figuratively speaking), we look to be on track.
Even though the water temps are 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the 3.4 region, NOAA’s Halpert pointed out that the record was only for the weekly value and that El Niño is eventually ranked by the peak of a 3 month value. “So we won’t know exactly where this event ranks until sometime next year,” he said. Another indicator, the Nino 4 value, also touched the largest value recorded at 1.7 degrees Celsius, NOAA said. The World Meteorological Organization said three-month averages would most likely peak at over 2 degrees Celsius above normal over the next few months. So until then, we wait.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I love it when buddies of mine go to some faraway exotic places and send me pics of what I missed. Like this gem in Indo. He said he got it 4' some days and 12' on others. No crowd either. And the water was 80! I don't care though. Seriously. I've got my little slice of heaven called Cardiff this weekend. Sure it's going to be small and parking will be tough. And I'm wearing a wetsuit again. Yikes! And there's like 50 rabid stand up guys... Oh who am I kidding.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Admirable
Reprising Bill Murray's Role As Phil Connors in Groundhog Day 2
Thankful For Surfing
