THE Surf Report- Early Edition

There's a knock on my door...

SURF:
Even though our weather doesn't feel El Nino-like, the surf is starting to.

A mixed bag last weekend turned into a good swell late Monday into Tuesday and we had some fun smaller leftovers this morning. But don't fret- there's a new sheriff in town and it's starting to fill in on the buoys tonight.

A solid storm in the north Pacific a few days ago sent big surf to the Hawaiian Islands for the Vans Pro this week (congrats Mick if you're out there listening) and that same swell is filling in here tonight. Look for head high sets tomorrow morning from the WNW and overhead sets by sundown- with bigger sets in SD. That lasts into Saturday morning and tapers off into the weekend. Time to dust off your real board!

If that wasn't good enough, our water temps are still in the mid-60's and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, down to 1.5' mid-day, and up to a mild 3' at sunset.

FORECAST:

Fired up yet? Good! Should be; time me to test yourself in the coming 10 days. After the good surf this weekend, we have a slightly bigger swell from the NW arriving late Monday into Tuesday. Look for overhead waves here in north county and SD getting to 10'+. And the weather will be great to boot.

We have a slight drop on Wednesday but... wait for it... a new solid NW arrives again late Thursday into Friday of next week. Look for more overhead surf here and 10'+ again in SD. There might be some rain with this system late in the week but until then, enjoy the swell this weekend and early next week and worry about the rain later.

WEATHER:

The Pacific Northwest tonight has a good storm barreling through it but not much down here. Just some high clouds from the tail end of that system and maybe patchy fog tomorrow morning. High pressure starts to set up by Saturday and by Sunday we've got sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's again at the beaches. That will last through next Wednesday. As mentioned above, forecast charts are showing another storm headed into northern California late next week which may give us a shot of rain down here late Thursday into Friday. Is this finally the storm that moves the jet stream to southern California and opens the floodgates? Only time will tell. Or the North County Surf Blog; make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 
 
BEST BET:
You're twisting my arm here! Maybe Saturday morning once that NW peaks and high pressure starts to build. Or next Tuesday when another NW shows (slightly bigger might I add) and the weather feels like summer.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As we sit and wait and wait and wait for Winter’s Hellish El Nino to unleash it’s fury (otherwise known as W.H.E.N.), what does a normal December look like around here? My fondest memories of Decembers past is waking up on Christmas morning and not seeing snow outside but rather sunny weather and kids riding their shiny new skateboards in boardshorts. The National Weather Service in San Diego has given us a primer on what we should expect before the heavens open up from El Nino’s nasty temperament…

Winter as we know it in San Diego generally begins about the middle of December. Even then temperatures are moderate; the daily high averages 64.7 degrees and the normal low is 48.4 degrees. And the mean 56.5 degrees is 4.8 degrees cooler than in November. Since 1872 the temperature has dropped to the freezing point twice during the month; once in 1879 and again in 1891, but has never dropped lower. Although the highest reading was 88 degrees in 1963, temperatures above 80 degrees have been infrequent.

The normal rainfall increases to 1.53 inches and the days with measurable rain average 6. However monthly totals have varied widely and have ranged from none in several Decembers to 9.26 inches in 1921. A trace of snow fell once, on December 18, 1967 (a white Xmas in SD; stump your friends with that one). In some nearby locations amounts of a half inch or more snow fell and remained on the ground for an hour or more. On a few occasions storm winds have reached 40 mph. In 2004 a speed of 58 mph out of the south was registered on the 29th which is a record for December (just wait for this winter’s El Nino- that's nuthin').

Average sunshine is 73 percent of possible which is 2 percent less than in November (in laymen’s terms- that’s a lot of sun regardless of the season). Clear days average 14, partly cloudy days average 7, and cloudy days average 10. The average number of days with heavy fog is 4, but there is a substantial variation from year to year. Despite the increase in rainfall, the relative humidity continues moderate with a mean of 70 percent in the early morning, 55 percent near noon and 58 percent near sunset.

So what does all this mean? Regardless of El Nino or not, we’re due for at least 1.50 inches of rain in a normal year for December and El Nino will enhance that undoubtedly. And technically we shouldn’t be worried we haven’t received much rain this winter for 2 reasons: First, it’s not winter yet (that comes December 21st). And secondly, the bulk of El Nino’s rains usually show up in the December to February time frame- and we’re only 3 days into December. So get ready for it!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This shot could be anywhere. San Miguel. Keramas. Lowers. Burleigh. It's Japan of course. Japan! Of course! Looks pretty inviting. Except the surfers over there don't worry about great whites. They worry about Godzilla. And Mothra.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
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