THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Blas is gonna be a blast.

SURF:

Just some leftover SW/NW this past week for waist high waves around town and chest high waves in the OC. Cool conditions too didn't make the surf look all that enticing.

The real excitement though was Hurricane Blas off Baja the past few days. Hitting Category 4 status yesterday, Blas had top winds of 140 mph. Blas unfortunately was moving away from us in a westerly direction, so the swell this weekend won't be that big here in north county San Diego. But considering it was pretty flat today, I'll take anything. Look for the morning low tide on Friday to kind of kill the swell but by mid-day we'll see chest high surf from the S as the tide and swell fills in. Far north county will be shoulder high, southern OC head high, and a rogue overhead set towards HB. Blas will peak late Friday and Saturday morning will have some leftovers.

Sunday we'll have some waist high+ waves around town (and chest high+ sets in the OC) as NW windswell picks up.

Water temps are still fantastic at 73 degrees and tides the next few days are 0' at sunrise, up to 4' after lunch, and down to 2' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Looks like we're in for a good run of surf the next 2 weeks. You read that correct- 2 weeks.

The NW windswell peaks on Monday as new SW fills in. Both swells aren't that big but we'll have chest high+ surf most everywhere.

Tuesday is a transition day as the NW/SW backs off but charts show a new hurricane forming- Celia- that should give us chest high+ waves again and overhead sets towards HB starting late Wednesday and peaking Thursday.

AND THEN... models show more storms off Antarctica sending shoulder high waves from the SW next weekend.

AND THEN... models show another hurricane forming off Baja late next week (Darby) that may give us chest high waves again towards the 20th.

But the real story is the models showing a beast of a storm off Antarctica next week which could give us 8'+ S swell around the 20th also. Make sure to keep up to date on the developing storms at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Not much to talk about on the weather front the next week. Good weather is forecasted Friday/Saturday then a weak cold front moves by to the N and kicks up our clouds a little bit Sunday/Monday. That clears out next week and we're back to great beach weather with temps in the mid-70's. No June Gloom or tropical moisture headed our way for the foreseeable future.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow afternoon compliments of Blas. Or fun combo surf on Monday afternoon. Or if Celia behaves- more hurricane swell next Thursday. And hopefully a big SW swell the weekend of the 20th. Confused? When in doubt, just paddle out...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you’ve ready the North County Surf Blog lately you’ll remember the story on the increase of shark attacks lately (http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-surf-report-early-edition_26.html). Various theories abound but TIME Magazine has an idea on the rise of attacks- and it’s not because sharks are getting fiercer.

The increase in attacks—59 in 2015, up from 31 in 2011—is connected to climate change, experts say. According to a study by Progress in Oceanography, climate change is pushing sharks and other marine species northward. At the same time, warm weather means people are more likely go swimming, a potentially fatal combination. According to the Florida Program for Shark Research, seven people have died from shark attacks since 2005.

“Each year we should have more attacks than the last because there’s more humans entering the water, and more hours spent in the water,” said George Burgess, director of the Florida Program for Shark Research. “What you see is more of a human activity than a shark activity.”

Most shark attacks take place in Florida, California and Hawaii, where tourists often visit beaches. The number of tourists in Florida, where the most shark attacks take place, has risen every year since 2009, to 106 million last year. Meanwhile, there’s also been a gradual increase in the number of sharks in the water.

In the last few decades, sharks have been increasingly exploited. Sharks were caught as bycatch starting in the 1960s, meaning they were incidentally caught during the commercial fishing of other fish. Later, sharks became targets in fisheries that expanded rapidly in the 1980s. As a result, shark populations have declined. Now, thanks to fishery regulations in the U.S., shark populations have been gradually increasing since the start of this century, but recovery is slow.

“To get them back to manageable levels is going to take decades for many of these species,” Burgess said. “We’re talking 30 years or more.”

But even as shark attacks have risen, an individual’s chance of getting attacked by a shark has not, Burgess said, because the human population is increasing faster than the shark population.

“The key here is, human plus shark equals attack,” Burgess said. “The number of humans and number of sharks influence the chances of them coming together. … With more on each side, the greater the chance of the two coming together and having an attack.”

Or my simple solution: Don’t surf in Orange County where it seems like a scare happens at San Onofre, Corona del Mar, and Huntington Beach on a weekly basis.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

All this shark talk is making me see things. Like today's Pic of the Week; those rocks in the line up look like giant shark fins. So I'm not paddling out. And the absence of anyone out and the exposed reef is a little creepy. And I'm taking a wild guess it's sharky. You paddle out first.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Supernatural
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