SURF:
Had fun surf last weekend from the SW as well as a bit of NW windswell too and most of that died out mid-week. Yesterday we had leftover NW windswell combine with building SW to put us back in chest high waves again. Today we had peaking SW/NW and great weather. Looks like great weather again tomorrow BUT... smaller SW and not much NW for waist high waves and chest high sets. Saturday is great weather again... but not much in the way of surf; maybe waist high. Late Sunday we get a small boost from the SW but only waist high+ again. Best spots in the OC may see chest high waves though. All in all great weather this weekend and rideable waves early tomorrow. No big waves on tap so make sure to relax this weekend and take it easy like Sunday morning.
FORECAST:
Not much to start the work week but we begin to see a small NW fill in on Tuesday for chest high sets and shoulder high waves in SD. We then get a better NW groundswell on Thursday for shoulder high waves here and head high waves in SD. That may last into Saturday. After that the Pacific goes on hiatus. Make sure to keep up to date on any developing storms at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
High pressure is building tonight and we have great beach weather on tap this weekend with light offshores in the AM and temps in the low 80's. High pressure starts to break down early next week and we get cooler temps and night/morning low clouds by mid-week. And no rain in sight. Yet.
BEST BET:
Dying small swell tomorrow or wait until next Thursday with fun NW groundswell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
There’s been talk over the years that as the earth warms up, certain climates will shift. So as the arid Baja Peninsula warms up, our mild Mediterranean climate here in San Diego will also warm up and turn into Baja. And our mild San Diego climate will shift north to the cooler temperatures of San Francisco. And Seattle will finally dry out as San Francisco’s climate will take up residence! And so on and so on. And by the 23rd century, I predict Santa will be wearing boardshorts at the North Pole.
Regardless, what happens on land may also be mimicked in the ocean. Which may mean our Great Whites would be replaced by Tiger and Bull Sharks. Awesome. The University of Texas reported recently about the shifting fish populations (I guess with the opening of the NLand Surf Park this week in Austin they need to start keeping tabs on these things). Here’s what they had to say:
Scientists have new evidence that coral-reef fish -- who are capable of adapting to warmer temperatures brought about by global climate change -- will probably opt instead to relocate to cooler parts of the ocean.
In experiments using a fish found in coral reefs around the world, the blue-green damselfish, Chromis viridis, researchers found that the fish were capable of adapting to living in water 2-4 degrees Celsius above their normal summer temperatures; however, when given the slightest chance, the fish moved to cooler water.
"When fish have to adapt to increased temperature, there are physical consequences. They may not be able to handles stress, or reproduce, or even grow," said marine scientist Dr. Jacob Johansen from The University of Texas at Austin. "But, when they seek out temperatures that they've evolved to be in over thousands of years, they can mitigate the impact of increasing temperatures and not sacrifice critical physiological processes."
Johansen and fisheries biologists from the University of Copenhagen and James Cook University collaborated on the study, published in the journal Global Change Biology.
Marine fish are faced with a tough decision. The ocean is warming at a faster rate than occurs on land, because oceans operate as sinks -- trapping in the heat. Many ocean fish will need to adapt or move to avoid death.
Most prior research has focused on the capacity for animals to adapt to increasing temperatures, given that animals have adapted to changes in temperature in the past. However, previous adaptations happened at evolutionary timescales, roughly one degree Celsius temperature increase per million years. Current predictions for rising temperature are much greater, with sea surface temperature predicted to increase by 2-4 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century.
Instead of looking into how fish can adapt, the new research took a different approach by asking, what if fish moved? In fact, what if entire ecosystems were capable of moving to the cooler temperatures, towards the poles or in deeper water?
There is already evidence that many coral reef fish and pelagic fish, like tuna, have moved in response to warmer ocean waters. The researchers found evidence that this also might occur with blue-green damselfish, and they stressed the need to investigate more fish species, including commercial fish species that economies rely upon.
"This study shows, that there is a mechanistic explanation for why fish may move, faced with a choice, and now we have a way of testing it," Johansen said.
Picking up and moving may not be the silver bullet for some species, particularly coral reef fish which are dependent on reefs relocating, too. Blue-green damselfish have a very small range, unable to go more than 60 feet in radius from their coral reef home. Corals cannot move pole-ward as fast as the temperature increases are predicted; if fish do not adapt, reducing critical processes like reproduction, they will have to move to deeper waters where living conditions are less than ideal.
In addition, ocean warming does not occur as a steady slide upward on the thermometer. It often occurs with more severe and frequent heating events. It's these transient warming events that are causing the most damage. This has already been shown in the Great Barrier Reef, when an El Niño caused the temperature to rise above the thermal tolerance of the animals, causing a massive fish kill and widespread coral bleaching.
"It's these transient periods that are causing the most damage," Johansen noted.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Now THAT'S a sandbar. Since I discovered it, I'm going to name it in honor of the best surfer in the world and call it 'Mike's Left'.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
The Hottest Thing Going
Invested In Pork Bellies
Best Surfer In The World As Voted By, Um, My Mom
