Not a bad start.
SURF:
Been a pretty good start to spring I would say. Fun combo swell, May Gray isn't here yet, the storms have faded- sign me up!
FORECAST:
As the work week kicks in (unless you're on Spring Break in Daytona Beach like me), we've got more SW on tap Monday for shoulder high sets, that lasts into Tuesday. Wednesday sees a small bump in the NW windswell as the SW serves up some leftovers. We still should see shoulder high sets from the combo- and nice weather.
WEATHER:
Models earlier in the week predicted showers Friday/Saturday but have since backed off. Looks like maybe a chance of showers on Saturday, then clear/cool skies and NW winds on Sunday as the weak front moves through. Early in the work week high pressure sets up for sunny skies and warm temps. Then models are predicting again showers for late in the week. Long story short- pretty mild weather. And at least no May Gray. Yet.
BEST BET:
Monday to Friday looks pretty fun with SW/NW combo and no real weather disturbances to mess things up.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Now that spring is here, it’s time to look back at the winter that was. As you probably heard, we were expected to be in a La Nina pattern (colder than average water temps, lower than average rainfall). But nothing can be expected as normal around here anymore. Like 2014/2015; full blown El Nino, right? Well, the hurricane season was active, and we received lots of rain over our normally dry summer, but our winter storms were below normal. So 2015/2016’s El Nino was going to be all-time, right? Well, we know how that turned out; only 80% of our normal rainfall totals. So La Nina awoke this past winter, our water temps dropped, and dry conditions were surely on their way. Then the rains came, and they came, and they came. Nothing of Biblical proportions, but for a season in which we were supposed to get well below our average of 10”, we were 20% over and our reservoirs filled to capacity. So what happened this winter? I’ll let our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explain:
Often during a La Niña winter, central and southern California receive below-average amounts of precipitation. While this dry pattern does not occur in every La Niña winter—and it’s especially fickle during weak, short-lived La Niñas like we just experienced--nevertheless there is a drier-than-average expectation. Instead, all wet-heck broke lose.
Multiple atmospheric river events in December, January, and February brought copious amounts of rain and snow to the state. Reservoirs were filled to their brims, even exceeding them in some places. At Lake Oroville north of Sacramento, water levels rose past capacity of the Oroville dam leading to the release of water, causing downstream flooding and evacuations. Snow across the Sierra Nevadas was plentiful enough to close ski resorts due to too much snow. In fact, total precipitation across higher elevations in the state is pacing close to and even above the wettest water year on record. How did this happen?
It’s likely a combination of a dying La Niña, competing climate phenomena, and the random vagaries of the atmosphere. Usually during La Niña, the jet stream above the Pacific Ocean—an area of fast winds 30,000 ft in the atmosphere that serves as a storm highway—is confined to an area just off the Asian continent and doesn’t extend eastward. Also expected during La Niña is a broad high-pressure system over the North Pacific. This high-pressure area blocks Pacific storm systems from easily moving east (2) toward the U.S. Southwest.
This year, even though the jet stream in the Pacific was slightly retracted to the west and the high pressure was present—if slightly displaced northward from what was expected—multiple atmospheric rivers brought heavy rain to California in December. So, what gives? Well, the Pacific jet stream is not the only jet stream on earth. Jet streams can arise in other locations too. During the winter, the jet stream over the eastern United States and Atlantic Ocean also strengthens. This winter, the winds blowing west-to-east across the contiguous United States stretched farther west than usual, helping guide Pacific moisture straight into California.
So even though the Pacific jet roughly acted in La Niña fashion, the US/Atlantic jet stepped into the storm-carrying role instead. That’s just the weather sometimes, as La Niña does not impact the Atlantic jet in a systematic way. Then it happened again somewhat at the beginning of January. Even strong La Niñas don’t mean that California would get NO rain. And this was a pretty pathetic La Niña (one of the shortest and weakest in our historical record). An occasional atmospheric river should be expected during winter, even if the number of them this winter was abnormal.
But what about in late January and February, after La Niña faded away? Well, a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event was the likely culprit for the mid-winter wetness. By late January, our short-lived La Niña was unable to exert its influence strongly across the Pacific. Instead, the MJO helped create the conditions for another round of epic rain and snow. Put all of those events together and you end up with a ridiculously wet winter for California.
If this winter shows anything, it is that we aren’t kidding when we say that ENSO is not the only game in town. Random weather and other climate factors can often override a La Niña signal, especially when it is weak. And there is always some randomness that is simply not predictable when we make our winter outlooks. That is why we issue our forecasts in terms of probabilities—because we understand what we know, and more importantly, what we don’t know.
So there you have it. Just when you think you know everything, Mother Nature humbles you.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
It amazes me how far people will travel to find new waves and the risks they will take. Like today's Pic of the Week- would you risk disease, crocs (the animals, not the shoes), civil unrest, and the chance of travelling all that way and getting skunked (flat ocean, not the animals). My sense of adventure consists of wondering whether or not the bartender at my swim up pool in Cabo is going to get my drink order right.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Earth Shattering
Was Mentioned in the Bible
Guinness Record Holder, 12,847 Surf Spots Discovered
