Thursday, May 11, 2017

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Murphy's Law.

SURF:


Typical- I go away on a long weekend- don't do THE Surf Report- and it rains cats and dogs (and sharks) in May. We're pretty much back to normal for May (except for the sharks); just some weak cold fronts moving by to the N and we're left with junky conditions, limited afternoon sun, cool temps, and a small NW windswell/SW groundswell combo.


For this weekend, we've got a boost of NW windswell again with a touch of SW groundswell for waist high+ waves. And let's be honest- with all the shark sightings recently, since it's not going to be firing this weekend, you may want to shit this one out (especially on Mother's Day).


Water temps are almost to 65 and tides the next few days are 0' at sunrise, up to 3.5' at lunch, down to 2' late afternoon, and up to 4' at sunset.

FORECAST:


Nothing exciting in the near future except for NW windswell generated by passing cold fronts next week. And a chance of showers mid-week (more on that below) will most likely make conditions undesirable. Charts show a small SW headed our way for maybe chest high sets in the OC towards the 16th- but yes- the cold front coming down the coast will mess it up. All in all, not looking to appealing any time soon. Make sure to keep up to date on the storm activity at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:


Somewhat nice weather will prevail this weekend with night/morning low clouds/fog and cool afternoon temps with hazy sunshine. Then models show yet another cold front coming through our region Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Models are differing on the strength but we should at least get some showers and breezy conditions. Nothing out of the ordinary (I actually remember a cold front a few years back coming through the first weekend of summer) but it just seems odd because April had such great weather. Hopefully by next weekend we'll be back to somewhat sunny skies. In regards to last weekend's storm, most spots along the coast in north county SD got over an inch (and the local mountains 2"). Pretty impressive. Here's where we stand now for the season (which ends September 30th):

-Newport: 15.87" so far. 123% of normal
-O'Side: 14.88" so far. 115% of normal
-San Diego: 12.61" so far. 126% of normal

BEST BET:
Maybe... this weekend with a little NW windswell and touch of background SW groundswell and semi-clean conditions. Sounds fun, huh?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
All the questions you’ve always wanted to ask about the ocean but were afraid to! (Or you’re omnipotent and the following information from NOAA is useless to you):


Why is the ocean salty, but rivers flowing into it are not?:
In the beginning, the primeval seas were probably only slightly salty. But over time, as rain fell to the Earth and ran over the land, breaking up rocks and transporting their minerals to the ocean, the ocean has become saltier. Rain replenishes freshwater in rivers and streams, so they don’t taste salty. However, the water in the ocean collects all of the salt and minerals from all of the rivers that flow into it. It is estimated that the rivers and streams flowing from the United States alone discharge 225 million tons of dissolved solids and 513 million tons of suspended sediment annually to the ocean. Throughout the world, rivers carry an estimated four billion tons of dissolved salts to the ocean annually. About the same tonnage of salt from ocean water probably is deposited as sediment on the ocean bottom and thus, yearly gains may offset yearly losses. In other words, the ocean today probably has a balanced salt input and output (and so the ocean is no longer getting saltier).

How much of the ocean have we explored?:
The ocean is the lifeblood of Earth, covering more than 70 percent of the planet's surface, driving weather, regulating temperature, and ultimately supporting all living organisms. Throughout history, the ocean has been a vital source of sustenance, transport, commerce, growth, and inspiration. Yet for all of our reliance on the ocean, 95 percent of this realm remains unexplored, unseen by human eyes. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration and Research is leading efforts to explore the ocean by supporting expeditions to investigate and document unknown and poorly known areas of the ocean. These expeditions represent a bold and innovative approach by infusing teams of scientist-explorers with a "Lewis and Clark" spirit of discovery and equipping them with the latest exploration tools. From mapping and describing the physical, biological, geological, chemical, and archaeological aspects of the ocean to understanding ocean dynamics, developing new technologies, and helping us all unlock the secrets of the ocean, NOAA is working to increase our understanding of the ocean realm.

Why does the ocean get colder at depth?
Cold water has a higher density than warm water. Water gets colder with depth because cold, salty ocean water sinks to the bottom of the ocean basins below the less dense warmer water near the surface. The sinking and transport of cold, salty water at depth combined with the wind-driven flow of warm water at the surface creates a complex pattern of ocean circulation called the 'global conveyor belt.' In contrast, the Earth gets hotter and hotter at depth primarily because the energy of radioactive decay is leaking outwards from the core of the planet. While this geothermal energy is transferred to ocean water along the sea floor, the effect is so small that it's immeasurable by direct means. Why? The actual amount of heat generated per square meter of Earth is quite small, especially compared to the amount of heat necessary to warm the ocean. Geothermal energy emanating from the Earth averages only about one tenth of a watt per square meter. At that rate of heat flow (without taking ocean currents into account), it would take well over a year just to heat the bottom meter of the ocean by one degree Centigrade. However, the ocean is not standing still. Complex deep ocean currents driven by density variations in temperature and salinity are constantly replacing the bottom layer of ocean water with colder water.


Is sea level the same all across the ocean?:
Most people are surprised to learn that, just as the surface of the Earth is not flat, the surface of the ocean is not flat, and that the surface of the sea changes at different rates around the globe. For instance, the absolute water level height is higher along the West Coast of the United States than the East Coast. You may have heard the term “global sea level,” which refers to the average height of all of the Earth's ocean basins. "Global sea level rise" refers to the increase in the average global sea level trend. "Local sea level" refers to the height of the water measured along the coast relative to a specific point on land. Tide stations measure local sea level. "Relative sea level trends" reflect changes in local sea level over time. This relative change is the one most critical for many coastal applications, including coastal mapping, marine boundary delineation, coastal zone management, coastal engineering, sustainable habitat restoration design, and the general public enjoying their favorite beach.

PIC OF THE WEEK:


Today's Pic of the Week comes from Rodd Owen, an amazing photographer out of Australia who shoots beautiful nature shots but hellish surfing photos. Not sure of the ying/yang going on there but here's an example of a wave that makes me uneasy. Think I'll stick to his scenic shots from now on. For more of Rodd's work, check them out here. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
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