Time to gather my wits.
SURF:
Couldn't get any better the past few days.
FORECAST:
Good time to get back to work on Monday as no surf is in sight.
WEATHER:
More seasonal weather for the foreseeable future. Night and morning low clouds, sunny skies in the afternoon, and temps in the mid to high 70's. What can I say? Pretty darn perfect around here. Only activity around in Southern California is a chance of thunderstorms in the mountains/deserts this weekend and dry next week.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow with leftovers or late next week with new small SW.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you know, once spring had sprung this year, forecast models hinted that El Nino may be making a comeback. Just before summer hit, the waters cooled down in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the hype train slowed to a crawl. Since then the water temps have been slightly above average (we’ve even seen that at our local beaches) and hurricanes are forming now on a regular occurrence off Baja. So what’s the latest? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported last week that the latest El Nino forecast is holding steady and favoring El Nino neutral conditions (50-55% chance) into the winter of 2017-18 (so basically a slightly above average chance). Although not favored, El Niño development has an elevated chance of occurring (~35-45%) relative to the long-term average (~25-35%), so we still need to keep our eyes on this possibility.
The ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have remained nearly steady over the past three months. The temperature in June was about 0.4°C (0.7°F) above the long-term average. In fact, this persistent warmth means that the latest three-month average (April–June) temperature has reached 0.5°C above the long-term average, which is one condition necessary to declare El Niño. This is the first time we’ve hit this threshold since April–June of last year. Does that mean El Niño has awoken from its yearlong slumber? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves…
El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon, so forecasters require that the temperatures persist above the 0.5°C threshold for at least five consecutive three-month seasons. Therefore, forecasters have to decide if there is sufficient reason to expect these elevated temperatures to continue.
One factor that limits forecasters’ confidence in the persistence of El Niño conditions is the current state of the atmosphere. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled phenomenon that requires cooperation between the atmosphere and ocean to develop. Over the past month, the atmosphere really has not resembled anything that we would expect in a typical El Niño. In particular, we have seen enhanced cloudiness and rainfall near Indonesia instead of the International Date Line, which directly contradicts the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall that is associated with El Niño. This general atmospheric pattern has been quite stubborn, holding fairly steady throughout the calendar year thus far. Returning to the idea of ENSO as a coupled phenomenon, right now it’s as if the ocean is trying to get the atmosphere’s attention, but the atmosphere is just not that interested.
Just because the atmosphere seems disinterested in the ocean’s signals now doesn’t mean that the two cannot get on the same page and bring about a full-fledged El Niño in the months ahead. In addition to the analysis of the recent evolution of the atmosphere and ocean, forecasters rely on a variety of dynamical and statistical forecast models for guidance. The most recent model forecasts indicate a high probability that the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will remain at least slightly above average through winter of 2017-18. In addition, the average of the dynamical forecasts in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble falls just below the 0.5°C threshold for El Niño, which is a very slight forecast uptick relative to last month.
These forecasts, however, indicate that only a minority of models forecast full-blown El Niño development (and very few suggest the opposite La Niña development). Given that neither the forecast models nor the current state of ocean/atmosphere coupling seems too enthusiastic about El Niño or La Niña development in the near future, the forecast is sticking with the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions.
Despite the ENSO-neutral forecast lean, we still have a fair number of models forecasting at least a weak El Niño through the upcoming winter. Therefore, forecasters certainly are not ruling out the development of El Niño; in fact, they are calling for an elevated chance, relative to average, of El Niño onset. Specifically, El Niño typically occurs about 25-35% of the time, depending on the specific month, but forecasters predict the chances have risen to about 35-45% for the upcoming fall and winter. These forecast probabilities, however, are not high enough for the CPC to issue an El Niño Watch.
So what does that mean for us? Well, a slight chance of an El Nino is better than no El Nino. And currently our waters are warm which will help hurricane development and the chance of boardshorts into October. And if the warm waters continue to hold ever slow slightly into winter, that means 3/2 fullsuits instead of 4/3’s, a slight chance of enhanced rainfall, and maybe storms that are slightly bigger for swell production. All good in my book.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
A-frame awesomeness. All beach breaks should have it this good.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Like A Boss
Dressing Up as Aquaman for Comic Con
Grease The Bottom Of My Board To Tailslide Easier
