Thursday, January 11, 2018

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


It’s on like Donkey Kong.

SURF:
Wasn’t that a wild week. You’d think that it was winter or something around here. Actually, it is winter, but that’s beside the point. All that dry/hot weather the past few months has me all out of sorts. But that’s behind us and the storms are lined up in the Pacific like incoming jumbo jets to LAX. But before I get to the good stuff, let’s review the past week.


Good surf last weekend (except for the fog) was replaced by smaller surf Monday then KAPOW! our first storm in 10 months steamrolled us on Tuesday. In it’s wake was overhead bumpy surf and dirty water. Today the conditions cleaned up but the water was still dirty.


We had some shoulder high surf as a new NW was hitting the buoys tonight. Look for more shoulder high waves tomorrow and Saturday and a slight drop on Sunday to the chest high range. Weather should be clean also. Water temps are still holding in the high 50’s.


Tides this weekend are 5.5’ at sunrise, down to 0’ after lunch, and up slightly to 2’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:


Luckily for us, the north Pacific is in full swing and we have new WNW showing on Monday for overhead sets.


That holds Tuesday before another overhead NW arrives on Wednesday. 


Thursday drops slightly to the head high range then next Friday we’re due for overhead sets again. BUT… long range charts show a chance for rain again (and bumpy conditions)? 


That holds into Sunday morning and models show another storm forming off the Aleutians for maybe more head high surf around the 23rd. Looks good IF the rain holds off. 

WEATHER:


As I’ve said over the years, you can rate storms based on how much rain they drop. If it’s just a ¼”, that’s just showers. If we get ½”, that’s a typical winter cold front. If it drops 1”, that’s solid. And 2”+… we don’t see that very often. Well… Tuesday’s storm dropped between 2” to 3”. That’s once a decade stuff. What’s really unusual is that the we started our winter season as the driest on record with almost 10 months between storms. It was almost like Mother Earth was saving up all that energy and just unloaded on us this week. Feast or famine. So on to our forecast. Look for nice weather this weekend that continues into early in the week with temps around 70. Wednesday will be a transition to more low clouds/fog then forecast charts show another storm headed our way next weekend. Still early- not sure of it’s strength- but expect at least showers. After that, the storm door may be open and we could have more rain upon us around the 3rd week of January.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow through next Thursday and maybe next weekend if the rain holds off…

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


2017 is in the books and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has compiled it’s year end data. So how did our weather fair? Here’s NOAA with the scoop:

2017 will be remembered as a year of extremes for the U.S. as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, fires and freezes claimed hundreds of lives and bestowed economic hardship upon the nation. Recovery from the ravages of three major Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. and an extreme and ongoing wildfire season in the West is expected to continue well into the new year.

For a fuller picture of just how extreme last year was, let’s dive into our U.S. year-end recap:


  • Full year 2017 | January-December

The average U.S. temperature in 2017 was 54.6 degrees F (2.6 degrees F above average), making 2017 third warmest year in 123 years of record-keeping, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. In fact, the five warmest years on record for the U.S. all have occurred since 2006.

2017 was also was the 21st consecutive year that the annual average temperature exceeded the average. For the third consecutive year, every state across the contiguous U.S. and Alaska experienced above-average annual temperatures.

Precipitation for the year totaled 32.21 inches (2.27 inches above the long-term average) ranking 2017 as the 20th wettest year and the fifth consecutive year with above-average precipitation. The national drought footprint (total area) began and ended with about one quarter of the Lower 48 states in drought. The drought footprint reached a low of 4.5 percent in May, the smallest drought footprint in the 18-year period of the U.S. Drought Monitor.


  • December 2017

The month of December ranked near the warmest third of the record, with an average temperature across the contiguous U.S. of 34.8 degrees F, 2.1 degrees above average. Much-above-average temperatures were observed across the Southwest with record warmth in parts of California and Arizona, while near- to below-average temperatures were observed across parts of the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. The month ended with record and near-record cold temperatures for many locations in the East. The precipitation total for the month was 1.55 inches (0.80 of an inch below normal), making it the ninth driest December on record and the driest in nearly three decades.



  • Billion-dollar disasters in 2017

Last year, the U.S. experienced 16 weather and climate disasters each with losses exceeding $1 billion, totaling approximately $306 billion — a new U.S. record. 

219: The number of weather and climate disasters that have exceeded $1.5 trillion in overall damages since 1980

Far more tragic was the human toll. At least 362 people died and many more were injured during the course of the disasters that included:
1 freeze
1 drought (affected multiple areas)
1 wildfire (affected multiple areas)
2 floods
3 major hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria)
8 severe storms

The biggest newsmakers include the western U.S. wildfires that caused damages tallying $18 billion — triple the previous U.S. record. Losses from Hurricane Harvey exceeded $125 billion, which ranked second only to Hurricane Katrina, the costliest storm in the 38-year period of record. Hurricanes Maria and Irma had total damages of $90 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Hurricane Maria now ranks as third costliest weather and climate disaster on record for the nation, with Irma coming in close behind as fifth costliest.

PIC OF THE WEEK:


If the earth keeps warming up, this is what Rincon will look like in 2050. Trunks, trees, tropics, and trillions of surfers in the lineup.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Founder
Snowboarding the Sahara This Weekend
Broke The World Record- Rode A 101’ Wave