Money can't buy happiness. But surfing sure can.
SURF:
Been fun surf lately. Combo swell, our water is a pleasant 70 degrees, the tourists have gone home, and plenty of early sun at the beaches. That's my recipe for success.
But let's not stop now- we've got more combo swell filling in tonight from a new SSW swell and more NW windswell. Look for shoulder high surf on Friday and head high sets on Saturday into Sunday morning. Nice weather is on tap too and water temps are hovering around 70. Shaping up to be a fun weekend.
And tides are getting back to normal over the weekend- about 2' at sunrise, up to 4.5' after lunch, and back down to 2' at sunset.
FORECAST:
We've got leftover waist high SSW on Monday then a we get a new small SW bump again late Tuesday into Wednesday for chest high sets.
Charts today show Hurricane Rosa taking shape by mid week which may give us head high S swell late Friday into Saturday (and well overhead in the OC). Rosa hasn't formed of course- so don't get too excited yet- but it looks promising. After that, models show the southern hemisphere trying to get it's act together the middle of next week too- so maybe more chest high SW towards the 25th. Make sure to keep up to date on the new swells (and Rosa) at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
Nothing to report. Just a trough of low pressure to our N and high pressure to our S, resulting in minimal night and morning low clouds at the beaches and mild temps in the afternoons around 75. That's about it for the foreseeable future. We're still a week away from fall and I usually don't see our 1st chance of showers until the 2nd half of October. So enjoy the pleasant weather for another month.
BEST BET:
This weekend (late Friday into early Sunday) with combo S and NW swells, nice weather, and water that's surprisingly warm for mid-September. Or keep your fingers crossed for Rosa next weekend.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Quick update on the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane activity:
Atlantic:
As you've probably heard by now, Hurricane Florence on the East Coast is starting to hammer the Carolinas tonight. Even though Florence has been downgraded from a Category 4 storm over the Atlantic to now a Category 2 as it hits land, it's still a potent storm. Reason being is that it's a fairly large hurricane and it's starting to slow down (so any effects of a hurricane will be prolonged and widespread). Best case scenario for any hurricane of course is to blow through quickly, but as we saw with Hurricane Harvey in Houston last year, if it stalls or slows down, the winds are relentless and the water piles up. Currently at 11 PM eastern time tonight, winds are blowing 90 MPH and the eye of the storm is just hitting land in North Carolina. It's going to be a messy couple days out there unfortunately.
Eastern Pacific:
As far as our hurricane season goes in the eastern Pacific, we started out with a bang in June and July, August was quiet, and we're back on track for September. If you'll remember, back in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual forecast, predicting a 80% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 14–20 named storms, 7–12 hurricanes, and 3–7 major hurricanes. So how are we doing so far? To date we've had:
- 16 named storms (right on track)
- 9 hurricanes (right on track)
- 6 major hurricanes (right on track)
As mentioned in the surf FORECAST above, hurricane Rosa should form next week and early indications is that it will be a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger), so add that to the totals above. The season runs from May 15th to November 30th with the peak being in early to mid-September, so things should be quiet once we hit October. But with warmer than normal water temperatures due to El Nino, it's looking like we may just hit the upper end of the projected amount of storms this year.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I'll let you write your own description for this one but I'll give you a couple starting points: Empty line-ups. Not 1 but 2 point breaks. Tropical. And did you catch that lone house on the point? Son of a gun. Now discuss.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Tried And True
Play 22 Instruments In My One Man Band
Surf to live. Love to surf.
