Anyone besides myself seen this El Nino guy lately?
SURF:
I've been talking for a few months that models last summer
showed our water temps rising above average again and we may be headed to an El
Nino this winter. Well, I'm just taking a wild guess and saying that he's back.
Can't confirm since most of NOAA is shutdown due to some government issues I
won't get into, but by the looks of our rainfall totals and 12' surf recently,
that's all the confirmation I need.
This past week had a quick rise in the surf
on Wednesday and today was still firing. We've got a smaller more manageable
day tomorrow then the waves & weather kick into high gear again for at
least the next 10 days.
First up is a storm taking shape today that will barrel
down the coast on Saturday and give us overhead NW again late Saturday into Sunday
morning. The storm that generated it though will be arriving at the same time too
so look for lots of rain and windy conditions. Best bet is to get it Saturday
afternoon before the rain/wind gets too heavy and the new swell starts to show.
Sunday will be a windy mess from the NW as the storm exits the region. Water
temps have dropped to the high 50's thanks to all those swells recently.
And
tides are non-existent this weekend- about 2' at sunrise, up to 3' at lunch,
and back down to 2' at sunset.
FORECAST:
After this weekend's wave appetizer, we get a salad on
Monday, a side dish on Wednesday, an entree next Friday, and a dessert on
Sunday the 20th. Basically we have swells and stormy conditions lined up with
varying degrees of 6-8'+ surf lined up on...
Monday the 14th...
Wednesday the 16th...
Friday the 18th and Sunday the 20th. Now I'll be the first to admit- I have no
idea on when you should surf. With all these storms lined up, it will be
impossible to forecast if the wind will be calm, breezy, or downright blustery.
And that's just in a 12 hour period. Basically keep your board and wetsuit in
your car and jump on it at the first sign of clean conditions!
WEATHER:
Where do I start? Nice to have some weather to talk about
finally! After saying for months 'night/morning low clouds/fog and afternoon
sun’ I can actually say we're going to get dumped on- here and in the mountains
(for all my Snow-Bros out there). First storm will arrive Friday night and last
around mid-day on Saturday. We should get 1/2" to 1" and 20 mph+
winds at the coast. On it's heels are a couple weaker cold fronts Sunday
through Tuesday that may give us 0.5" of rain and weaker winds. And if the
models are correct, looks like a solid storm on Wednesday the 16th with 2"
of rain at the coast and 30 mph winds. In total for the week we could see
3" of rain and 1-2' feet of snow in the local mountains. And models show
maybe another storm next weekend. Winter is officially here. Make sure to keep
track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
This one's on you. Lots of surf and storms lined up from
late Friday night to next Sunday the 20th. Could be a little window of
clean/manageable surf in-between those days but we won't know until it happens!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Doing great so far with our rain this year. As predicted a
few months ago- this was going to be mild El Nino and the rainfall totals (and
surf heights) and have reflected that. We're slightly above average for
rainfall this year and the surf really hasn't gotten over 12' here in north
county or triple overhead in San Diego. If it was a full blown El Nino, I would
have expected 25'+ surf already at La Jolla Cove and 10” of rain. But there's
still time! What were we talking about again? Oh- rainfall this season. Here's
where we stand:
- Newport Beach: 6.08" so far. Normal this time of year is 5.17". 118% of normal.
- Oceanside: 4.26" so far. Normal this time of year is 4.89". 85% of normal.
- San Diego: 5.30" so far. Normal this time of year is 3.70". 143% of normal.
For our total rainfall in a season, we should see around 10-13"
of rain, so we're about 45% of the way there. Along with the expected 2-3"
next week, we should be well above average and getting close to that 10-13”. With
about 4 more good months of rain on the horizon, I wouldn’t be surprised to see
12-15” of rain this year. Fill up those reservoirs!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I have a love/hate relationship with Ocean Beach, San
Francisco. Love that there's waves all the time. Hate that it's 40' beach
break. Case in point with today's Pic of the Week: Just think if you were
surfing the 'inside' 12-15' bombs and already paddling for dear life THEN scratch
over a set and see those things feathering a mile out to sea. So awesome.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Avant-Garde
Play In A Twisted Sister Tribute Band Called 'Gnarly Bro'
Won't Surf My Lazor Zap For Fear Of Electrocution
