Rain, rain, go away...
SURF:
Are we having fun yet? Lots of rain this past week (and I mean lots of rain) has unfortunately washed a lot of junk (and I mean a lot of junk) into our surf this past week and unless you have a hazmat suit, it's been best to stay out of the water.
Surf hasn't been that good either with lots of wind messing up any chance for a fun session. Today things cleaned up fortunately, but since we're in the middle of an El Nino winter, that will change in the near future. Look for waist high surf on Friday and clean conditions. Then a weak cold front comes through late Friday/early Saturday for light showers and junky conditions again.
Surf will pick up to the chest high range for late Saturday into Sunday then another weak cold front comes through Sunday night. In summary, a couple weak cold fronts this weekend and smallish surf.
Water temps are a chilly 58 degrees and tides are 3' at sunrise, up to 5' mid-morning, and down to 0' at sunset.
FORECAST:
The above mentioned cold front on Sunday night will bring shoulder high NW wind slop for Monday. That will drop quickly on Tuesday for chest high+ surf and cleaner conditions.
Wednesday morning looks small and clean then models hint at another bigger storm hitting the region towards Thursday. If that's the case, look for messy big surf again and more dirty water late Wednesday into Thursday. Where's all that big offshore sunny surf we had back in December?!
And if you trust the models 7-10 days out, we have have another big/messy storm next weekend. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
I'm going to make a wild prediction here and say that it won't stop raining until the end of February- 2021 that is. So just how wet was that last week? Here's some numbers to chew on (or drink I guess):
- Lytle Creek (in the San Bernardino mountains): Almost 12" of RAIN
- Big Bear (and nearby ski resorts): 24"-36" of SNOW
- Most coastal locations between 2.5"-3.5" of rain
- Some inland locations: 4"+ of rain
- Deserts: roughtly 1/2" of rain
- And for our friends in the Great White North (i.e. Tahoe and Mammoth): A whopping 72"-132" of snow respectively
As I mentioned in the surf forecast, we've got nice conditions today (but cold) and then a couple of weak cold fronts for Friday night and Sunday night. We get a break in the action for Tuesday/Wednesday then another El Nino fueled storm may arrive the 2nd half of next week. AND... maybe another big one next weekend (if you trust the models that far out). At this point in time, we're almost at our seasonal rainfall totals- so any additional rain this season is just icing on the cake. Here's where we stand so far:
- Newport Beach = 13" so far. Seasonal average is 13.3"
- Oceanside = 9.2" so far. Seasonal average is 13.6"
- San Diego = 9" so far. Seasonal average is 10.3"
Can't wait to wash down my driveway this summer- or let my sprinklers run all day!
BEST BET:
Sunday morning with small clean surf or Tuesday with leftover swell from Monday's mess.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Sure has been sharky the past few years. Seems like some video is surfacing daily of sharks off San Clemente, the North Shore of Oahu, Australia, etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see footage from Lake Tahoe. But is social media over-hyping the situation? The results of the Yearly Worldwide Shark Attack Summary came in for 2018 and according to the study from the Florida Museum of Natural History at the University of Florida, the frequency of shark attacks had a sharp and sudden decrease this past year.
In 2018, according to the survey, there were only 66 unprovoked shark attacks around the world. For the last five years, the average has been 84 attacks. However, the organization is quick to note that this significant downturn does not necessarily mean humanity’s relationship with sharks is becoming stronger. “Annual fluctuations in shark-human interactions are to be expected,” the survey said. “Year-to-year variability in oceanographic, socio-economic and meteorological conditions significantly influences the local abundance of sharks and humans in the water and, therefore, the odds of encountering one another.”
But of the entire world, the United States (unfortunately) ranked highest for the most shark attacks last year. Of the 66 unprovoked attacks almost half recorded last year happened in the U.S. (a total of 32), although only one resulted in a fatality. In 2017, the U.S. accounted for 60 percent of all unprovoked attacks in the world, with a total of 53 incidents. For 2018, attacks in the U.S. made up 48 percent of the world total. Much of that decrease came from Florida, where unprovoked shark attacks decreased from 31 attacks in 2017 to 16 last year, according to the report.
The country with the next highest number of attacks was Australia with 20, one of which was fatal. Every other country on the list, including Brazil, Egypt, and Thailand, had three or fewer shark attacks last year (Egypt- really?!)
“Statistically, this is an anomaly. It begs the question of whether we’re seeing fewer bites because there are fewer sharks—that would be the ‘glass-half-empty’ interpretation,” Gavin Naylor, director of the museum’s shark research program, said in a statement. “Or it could be that the general public is heeding the advice of beach safety officials. My hope is that the lower numbers are a consequence of people becoming more aware and accepting of the fact that they’re sharing the ocean with these animals.”
In addition to the 66 unprovoked attacks around the world, there were 34 times when the attacks were provoked. According to the report, provoked attacks “occur when a human initiates interaction with a shark in some way.” Five people died from shark attacks, one of which was provoked, in the past year, which fits the global average of about six fatalities per year. (Seriously- who the heck provokes a shark?!)
If you ever find yourself in a shark attack — which is a one in 11.5 million chance, according to data from the International Shark Attack File — just remember to use this simple self defense move to help make your escape: When on the road, things can — and will — go wrong. The best defense is preparation, even for worst case scenarios.
Say, for example, you’re surfing and then out of nowhere a shark appears and starts heading straight for you. It turns out, there is some truth in the old adage about punching a shark in the nose. Like with any opponent, you should aim for their weak spots. A hard, sharp bop on the nose will likely cause the shark to veer away, giving you time to get out of the water.
George Burgess, the director for the Florida Program for Shark Research, told Business Insider that the eyes and gill slits are among a shark’s most sensitive parts. If, in the event a shark takes you in its jaws, you could still manage to escape by clawing and poking the eyes and the five gill slits, located directly behind the eyes.
Bear in mind, however, that the chances of being bitten by a shark are incredibly rare. Data from the International Shark Attack File puts your chances of being attacked by a shark at one in 11.5 million. There’s only a one in 264.1 million chance that you'll die from a shark attack.
But as every worst case scenario-thinker knows, dangerous encounters with animals can happen on land, too — and this defense strategy doesn’t work for every animal. If, like two California hikers earlier this month, you come face to face with a mountain lion, you probably don’t want to try sticking your fingers in its eyes. Instead, try to remain as calm as possible and avoid acting “like prey.”
PIC OF THE WEEK:
The truth is out there.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Cool As A Cucumber
Not One Of The Players Named In An Anthony Davis Trade
Valedictorian At My Surf School Graduation
