THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Almost ready. 

SURF:

Surf has been fun lately but not exactly big or firing. We've had lots of swell from the NW and SW in the chest high+ range and fairly good conditions. That will be the same for the upcoming weekend as we have more fun sized NW and SW headed our way. 

First up is a small NW that will start to fill in Friday and be met up with more small SW on Saturday. Good news is that small NW + small SW = fun shoulder high combo sets. Sunday starts to back off but we'll still have rideable chest high waves from both swells. Weather looks to be good also- warmest on Sunday- so a fun weekend all around. And here's some numbers to mull over:

Water temps are finally 60! Break out the 3/2! 

Tides this weekend are:

• 3' at sunrise
• 0' at lunch
• 3' at sunset

Daylight hours this weekend are:

• 6:40 AM sunrise
• 7:10 PM sunset

FORECAST:

As the North Pacific starts to die off in anticipation of summer, the southern hemisphere unfortunately hasn't really picked up the slack. It's trying, but it's not quite there yet. So we're left with just ok NW swell and just ok SW swell in the coming week. Monday/Tuesday look to be small but waist high+ from the SW- better in the OC of course. 

We get another shot of NW on Wednesday for shoulder high surf again- but models potentially show a weak cold front coming through late in the day so we may be in for some junky winds (kind of like today). 

After that, we've got more SW/NW arriving next weekend for shoulder high surf. 

Then maybe better SW around the 11th and 13th for head high surf and overhead in the OC. So we're almost to firing surf- but not quite. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

High pressure is taking charge off our coast this weekend and as it does, we'll have sunny skies and breezy W winds tomorrow. High pressure will finally be in control by Saturday and we'll be back to mid-70's at the coast and high 70's by Sunday- with offshore winds in the AM. Looks like a great weekend. Fog could return by Tuesday and the weak cold front mentioned above should bring more low clouds and wind again by Wednesday/Thursday. Once that moves through, we should be back to great San Diego weather next weekend. 

BEST BET:

Saturday with combo swell and great conditions. Or next weekend with... combo swell and maybe great conditions again.  

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

With just a chance of sprinkles- and showers at most next Wednesday- can we say the rain is officially over for the season? I know you've heard 'April showers bring May flowers', so there's still a chance at adding to our totals- but I'm guessing it won't be much. So on that note, where does it look like we'll end up this season? Pretty darn good:

• Newport Beach: 17.48" so far. 149% of normal (13"). FYI- last year at this time there was 2.66"...
• Oceanside: 13.69" so far. 117% of normal (13"). Last year there was only 4.68" at this time...
• San Diego: 11.85" so far. 131% of normal (10"). Last year there was only 3.18" at this time

As reported in last week's THE Surf Report, we are out of drought conditions finally. This season's rainfall was a blessing for a variety of reasons. And if the (weak) El Nino can hold through summer, I'm hoping we get an influx of tropical moisture for summer showers- to help lessen the fire impact. 

 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

No wonder so many people are moving to New Zealand. I guess it's more than just long lefts down there? (For more amazing surf shots, check out Jackson Bright's work at @jacksonbright_ on Instragram)

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Chivalrous

Already Maxed Out My Apple Card

Invented 'Wax-In-A-Can' Because Spraying It On Is Just So Much Easier

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Back on track?

SURF:

Had some fun surf this past week with off and on spring conditions. Today we had a continuation of the NW/SW combo- along with spring conditions. Tomorrow things clean up and we're left with fun head high sets from the combo NW/SW. On Saturday a weak cold front moves by to our N and gives us some clouds and increasing WNW swell again. By Sunday we're back to overhead sets from the WNW and background smaller SW. Hopefully the cold front doesn't kick up the NW winds as it exits the region on Sunday. Long story short- fun surf this weekend if the weak cold front on Saturday evening doesn't mess up our surf. And here's some numbers to crunch:

Water temps are still 58 degrees due to all the wind. Even though it's spring, it's not time to wear a spring suit. 

Tides this weekend are:

• -0.3' at sunrise
• 4.5' at lunch
• 0.5' at sunset

Daylight hours this weekend are:

• 6:50 AM sunrise
• 7:05 PM sunset

For a more detailed THE Surf Report, check out http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/.

FORECAST:

The good NW on Sunday takes a slight dip Monday morning then we get another shot of shoulder high WNW late Monday. That peaks on Tuesday along with more background SW swell. 

On Wednesday the SW picks up a notch to the chest high+ range and then more WNW wind/groundswell on Thursday from 'supposed' showers (more on that below). 

After that the N Pacific takes a breather and the S Pacific tries to get it's act together. If it does, we may see better head high SW swell at the end of the month into the beginning of April. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:

Nice cool weather on tap tomorrow then a weak front moves by to the N on Saturday. MAYBE a chance of showers but don't hold your breath. That moves through on Sunday and we've got nice spring weather until at least Tuesday. Models show a slightly stronger cold front coming our way on Wednesday but that may just bring consistent showers into Thursday. No real storms to speak of- winter may be in our rear view mirror. 

BEST BET:

Late Saturday with WNW and a touch of SW. Or maybe Tuesday with more WNW and a touch of SW. Or maybe the end of the month with more consistent SW swells and less NW. 

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Been a lot of rain this winter. But has it put a dent in our drought? After being in a hole for almost a decade, can I finally water my lawn 3 times a day? Well, according to the Los Angeles Times...

It’s official: California is 100% drought-free.

For the first time since 2011, the state shows no areas suffering from prolonged drought and illustrates almost entirely normal conditions, according to a map released last Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Former Gov. Jerry Brown issued an executive order in 2017 that lifted the drought emergency in most of the state, leaving some breathing a sigh of relief. But he cautioned Californians to keep saving water as some parts of the state were still suffering from extreme drought.

Now, two years later, that deficit seems to have been erased, thanks to an exceptionally wet winter. “The reservoirs are full, lakes are full, the streams are flowing, there’s tons of snow,” said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with the National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “All the drought is officially gone.”

The Drought Monitor, which collects data from scientists from the National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and dozens of weather agencies, last showed a drought map that was clear in December 2011. In updating the map, scientists consult with hydrologists, water managers, meteorologists and other experts to determine the amount of water in the state’s reservoirs, the snowpack level and other key measurements. With the wet winter streak going strong, their reports have been good.

In January, storms filled up many of the state’s water reserves almost to capacity and added about 580 billion gallons of water to reservoirs across the state. That month, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, a major source of California’s water supply, doubled — and then doubled again in February. “California has been getting a tremendous amount of rain, storms and snow,” Blunden said. “It’s just been extremely wet and it’s been so wet … that we’ve been able to alleviate drought across the state.”

A year ago, just 11% of the state was experiencing normal conditions while 88.9% of the state was “abnormally dry,” according to the drought report. Some parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties were still colored dark red, meaning they were experiencing “extreme drought.” Even last week, a small portion of Northern California was labeled as having “moderate drought” conditions. But as of last week, 93% of the state was experiencing normal conditions and none of it was in drought, Blunden said.

Small portions in the far northern and southern parts of the state were still marked as “abnormally dry,” but elsewhere, the map registered no drought conditions at all. In San Diego County, reservoirs were only 65% full, which contributed to the dry conditions in that area, Blunden said. And conditions are expected to return to normal this week in Northern California, she said. With more small storms expected in San Diego this week, that area also would likely come out of its dry spell entirely.

The rainy trend has extended across the United States, making for vast improvements in drought conditions, especially in the Western part of the country. Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, for example, have made significant progress, though much of those states are still classified as abnormally dry and are still experiencing drought conditions, Blunden said. Californians have a lot to be happy about, she said, but Blunden warned that could change.

“Dry conditions can easily creep back in,” she said. “That's why we adjust the map every week. The conditions change — and they can change fast sometimes.” Brown’s declaration was made after record rainfall in 2017. Then, in 2018, the state broke more records following an extremely dry winter. “We did see such major drought for five years,” Blunden said. “All of these storms came along and alleviated the drought. Everybody thought we were out of the woods, but then it came right back. “I think drought conditions can sneak up on you very quickly. It is good to be cautious and always think about conserving water.”

So just to be safe- no hosing down my driveway this summer?

 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Taste the rainbow. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Dazzling

There Goes My Bracket

Still Getting Paid To Ride For Gotcha

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Winter is over! Not really...

SURF:

With a week left of winter, sure seems like it left in a hurry with 75 degree air temps at the beach today. 

Lots of good leftover NW groundswell today too with a touch of SW AND offshore winds before lunch- sure made it fun from southern SD to northern OC. Tomorrow the NW backs off while the waist high+ SW holds, then mainly small SW on Saturday. 

On Sunday we then get a touch more NW/SW on Sunday for inconsistent chest high sets. In summary, a couple small swells from the SW/NW this weekend and great weather again. And here's some numbers to crunch:

Water temps are 58 degrees.

Tides this weekend are:

• 5.5' at sunrise
• -0.5' at lunch
• 4.0' at sunset

Daylight hours this weekend are:

• 7 AM sunrise
• 7 PM sunset

FORECAST:

The work & school week starts off with small leftover SW/NW for a continuation of waist to chest high surf, then we get a bump from the SW on Tuesday for better chest high SW. 

On Wednesday, the WNW picks up to the overhead range BUT... it's due to a storm bearing down on us. Typical. Shouldn't be a big rainmaker but just enough to mess up the solid surf. 

Late next week the NW/SW backs off but models show more overhead W swell next Sunday. And hopefully no rain. 

And if the forecast charts are right, the southern hemisphere finally kicks into gear and we get fun chest high+ SW around the 27th and shoulder high+ around the 29th. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Great summer-like weather today with temps in the mid-70's, offshore winds, and sunny skies. That will last through the weekend with temps reaching the high 70's and offshore winds in the AM. Low clouds should return early next week as high pressure backs off and the storm mentioned above moves into Southern California on Wednesday. Not looking like a big storm but definitely a last gasp for winter. After Thursday, we should get a couple cool days late in the week as the storm exits the region. 

BEST BET:

Tuesday with new SW late in the day and hopefully some of that new NW before the storm moves in on Wednesday. 

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

There are 2 things I'm not a fan of along our coast- Great Whites and sea urchins. Actually, make that 3 things- crowds in the line up too. Oh- and south winds. So that's 4 things I don't like. And seagulls stealing my lunch! That's 5 I guess. Ok- I'm getting off track here. Let's get back to sea urchins. They're pretty to look at from a distance, but up close- ouch! Stepping on one is as painful as a sting ray (so I guess sting rays are 6th on my growing list). As well as being landmines as you walk into the surf, sea urchins also destroy our kelp beds which help negate wind chop on the surf. The main predator of sea urchins, the sea otter, have been in decline but our kelp forests in Southern California have maintained their growth somehow. So what is keeping the sea urchins in check? A new study by San Diego State University (the university that produced such luminaries as Gregory Peck, Tony Gwynn, Raquel Welch, Kawhi Leonard, Mrs. Cunningham from Happy Days, and Michael W. Glenn among others) have found our heroes: 

California sheephead and spiny lobsters may be helping control sea urchin populations in Southern California kelp forests, where sea otters -- a top urchin predator -- have long been missing, according to a new study published in the journal Ecology. The research provides new insight into the complex predator-prey relationships in kelp forests that can be seen in the absence of sea otters. The study is also the first to experimentally test the relative impact, or rate of feeding, of the California sheephead and spiny lobsters in comparison to sea otters, whose historical range spanned from British Columbia, Canada to Baja California, Mexico.

"Healthy kelp forests are important both economically and ecologically along our coast. They act as nurseries and vital habitat for valuable fishery species, recreation sites for kayakers, free divers, and scuba divers, and serve as the base of rocky reef food webs," says Robert Dunn, who led the study as a Ph.D. candidate at SDSU and University of California, Davis, funded by a NMFS-California Sea Grant Fellowship.

Kelp forests rely on the proper balance of herbivory and predation. Sea urchins dwell on the seafloor where they forage on macroalgae, including giant kelp. If their populations are left unchecked by predation, they can decimate kelp forests and prevent kelp from growing. That can transform a thriving community of kelp into an oceanic desert, known as an urchin barren. The relationships between predators and prey vary among communities. Sea urchins have recently decimated kelp forests in Northern California, leaving researchers to wonder why Southern California kelp forests have remained relatively intact without sea otters to control the urchin populations.

Past research has indicated that Marine Protected Areas in Southern California house a diversity of predators -- warranting fewer urchins and abundant kelp. Dunn and his SDSU graduate advisor, Kevin Hovel, set out to better understand the potential for top-down control by these two distinct predators: the California sheephead and spiny lobsters. "One of the main things to note about Robert's research is that he was able to experimentally control, for one of the first times, many factors that allow us to test whether or not these predators have the right amount of influence, whether they can eat fast enough, and if there are enough of these predators within the ecosystem to exert strong influences on sea urchins," says Hovel, a professor of biology at the Coastal and Marine Institute at SDSU.

The new findings are in line with concurrent international research. Dunn said another recent study in southern Australia "found comparable results that predators and disease seem to be able to control urchins up to a certain density, similar to the number we found, but once urchins get to really high densities, those two factors no longer regulate urchin populations. Since our results are in line with findings on other rocky reefs, we believe this to be solid evidence indicating our results are robust."

The new research provides valuable information to understand and protect California's quintessential kelp forests. The researchers note, however, that further research is needed to tease out the complex relationships between sea urchins and their predators. "These results shed light on a very nuanced relationship, that requires further research on rocky reefs around the globe," says Dunn. "At the same time, we are already experiencing effects from global climate change, which will have additional consequences for these important ecosystems."

 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Sure this wave is amazing, but if you lived here, would you want to go right once in awhile?...

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Just Discovered I Have X-Ray Vision

Paid $500,000 For My Son's Scholarship To The University of Mossimo

Nobel Laureate For Surfology

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I can see the light at the end of the barrel or tunnel or tube or whatever you call it. 

SURF:

Been an odd combo this past month of storms arriving the same time our swells do. It would be great to get the swells a day early before the rain and wind kick in. But alas, we're almost to spring and that's the way it goes around here. Have no fear though as the southern hemi is starting to come to life and our rain is now turning to showers. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's take a look at the week that was. 

Had WNW last weekend in between rain squalls and the rest of the week was about the same with just small WNW and background SW. Today things cleaned up slightly with leftover chest high NW from yesterday's showers and we get an increase in NW on Friday but... more showers and W wind. Surf looks to be head high late but junky. Saturday morning we have sunny skies but NW winds from the departing cold front and dropping surf. By Sunday the surf is small again and back to the waist high and under range. In summary- bigger/bumpier surf late tomorrow and smaller/cleaner this weekend. And here's some numbers for you mathematicians:

Water temps are 58 degrees.

Tides this weekend are:

• 1' at sunrise
• 4.5' at lunch
• 0.5' at sunset

Daylight hours on SATURDAY are:

• 6:10 AM sunrise
• 5:50 PM sunset

And due to Daylight Saving Time on Sunday, daylight hours are:

• 7:10 AM sunrise
• 6:50 PM sunset

FORECAST:

As winter turns to spring, we're starting to see more (small) SW swells from Antarctica. 

On Monday we have a waist high SW swell filling in with chest high sets towards North County SD and better in the OC. 

Weak cold fronts move through early next week though, so look for more NW wind/groundswell with head high sets and windy bumpy conditions late Tuesday/Wednesday. There's another storm behind that one which will give us overhead NW on Wednesday/Thursday. 

If there's no more rain in sight (hopefully), then the good NW on Wednesday/Thursday will be met with fun SSW swell on Thursday. Beachbreaks could be peaky! 

After that, the North Pacific takes a breather and the South Pacific takes over with more chest high SSW next Sunday the 17th 

...and potentially more on Tuesday the 19th (with the OC being slightly bigger). In summary, lots of swells coming the next 10 days and keep your fingers crossed the rain goes away! Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

As the NW swells back off as we get into spring, so do the strength of our storms. Had some showers this past week and just enough SW wind to make a mess of the small swells we had. Looks to be the same in the coming days as charts show a weak cold front tonight dropping 1/4" of rain at most and winds in the 15 knot range on Friday. That blows through by Saturday and we're left with bumpy conditions early- and hopefully clean conditions by late afternoon. On Sunday models show another weak front coming through for more showers into Monday, and clearing on Tuesday. THEN... more weak showers by Wednesday into Thurday. All in all some showers off and on the next few days and no big storms to speak of. Next weekend SHOULD be sunny. 

BEST BET:

Late next week with new NW/SSW and HOPEFULLY the cold fronts will take a break to give us a couple windows to surf. 

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Who can forget the Oscar winning 'The Meg' about a 60'+ prehistoric shark called the Megalodon that terrorized the oceans and smashed box office records. Ok, maybe not Oscar winning (or box office records) but it was about a gigantic shark that DID live millions of years ago in our oceans and was 3 times as large as any Great White today. I've written about it a couple times in THE Surf Report (check it out here and here) and the Megalodon is extinct now (I hope), replaced by the Great White. But why did the most fearsome creature to ever roam the oceans disappear and the Great White shark take over? I'll let Forbes Magazine explain:

It’s a puzzle piece that has eluded shark scientists for years: just why exactly did the ancient Otodus megalodon, the largest shark to ever swim in our planet’s oceans, disappear? While recent movies and mockumentaries have toyed with the idea that “the Meg” is still alive, it is unquestionably extinct according to marine biologists. Theories have been proposed ranging from lack of prey to mass extinction events. Extinct or not (as some conspiracists believe), the nearly 60-foot-long creature captures everyone’s attention. Especially that of Robert Boessenecker, a paleontologist at the College of Charleston in South Carolina who found an Otodus megalodon tooth in California and began searching for more evidence of this animal in the West Coast. Boessenecker and colleagues then expanded their hunt even further, broadening the horizons to learn about how such a giant shark could pull off what may be one of the best disappearing acts of the planet.

But megalodon is an ancient magician that has cast many researchers under its spell, including Catalina Pimiento of the University of Florida and Christopher Clements of the University of Zurich who in 2014 published their analysis of the ancient animal’s extinction using available records. Their team of researchers determined that megalodon could have still inhabited our oceans up to around 2.6 million years ago, which is about a half million years or so before our human relatives Homo erectus began forging a path in this planet. The previous research suggested that there was a mass-extinction event around this time caused by radiation from a nearby supernova that led not only to the death of this predator but of many other animals such as ancient seals, walruses, dolphins, and whales. “The extinction of O. megalodon was previously thought to be related to this marine mass extinction-but in reality, we now know the two are not immediately related,” explained Boessenecker.

What started out in a sandy beach in California for Boessenecker and a curiosity has led to an answer that took the internet by storm: megalodon vanished some 3.6 million years ago, which is a million years earlier than any other previous estimates. Published in the journal PeerJ, this timeline means as the megalodon fell… the animal we know today as the modern great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) rose. Could this be the culprit to what ultimately shook up our ancient marine ecosystems and spelled doom out for megalodon? Boessenecker and the team believes so.

“We propose that this short overlap (3.6-4 million years ago) was sufficient time for great white sharks to spread worldwide and outcompete O. megalodon throughout its range, driving it to extinction—rather than radiation from outer space,” said Boessenecker in a statement. “This is much more believable and robustly supported by the data,” agreed Tom Deméré, giving a comment to National Geographic. Deméré is a curator of paleontology at the San Diego Natural History Museum and who was a reviewer of Pimiento and Clement's 2014 study.

But that isn’t the only culprit in this extinction. Although the publication argues that adult great whites “would have been in the same size range and likely would have competed with juvenile Otodus megalodon,” it also points the finger at dwindling prey items (the small whales that megalodons ate) and what scientists know as range fragmentation, which is when populations of a species get split up into separate areas. The researchers claim the fossil record has been misinterpreted in previous studies, with Boessenecker commenting: “We used the same worldwide dataset as earlier researchers but thoroughly vetted every fossil occurrence, and found that most of the dates had several problems—fossils with dates too young or imprecise, fossils that have been misidentified, or old dates that have since been refined by improvements in geology.”

As the megalodon population became fragmented, the large predators had to fight for dwindling food not only against one another but the newly emerged and much smaller great white shark. Although smaller, great whites are just as fierce as any other shark and their reduced size and possible increased agility may have given them the upper hand. Both animals ate similar prey, meaning the megalodon stood no chance against the newest competitor. Carcharodon carcharias evolved around four million years ago, with some scientists estimating they ventured out of the Pacific Ocean around two million years ago. Leaving the confines of the Pacific was a step towards total world domination as they spread around the world over hundreds of thousands of years. Today, the great white shark remains a cosmopolitan shark and frequently makes the news for kills. Guess this may be another one it can add to the list.

 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Anchor Point in Morocco doing it's best impression of Swami's. For other great shots of far away lands, check out Alex Postigo's.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Wingman For Hire

Got A Couple Overdue Movies From Blockbuster I Need To Return

Foiling Is So 2018. I'm Orca Surfing Now