Thursday, March 21, 2019

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Back on track?

SURF:


Had some fun surf this past week with off and on spring conditions. Today we had a continuation of the NW/SW combo- along with spring conditions. Tomorrow things clean up and we're left with fun head high sets from the combo NW/SW. On Saturday a weak cold front moves by to our N and gives us some clouds and increasing WNW swell again. By Sunday we're back to overhead sets from the WNW and background smaller SW. Hopefully the cold front doesn't kick up the NW winds as it exits the region on Sunday. Long story short- fun surf this weekend if the weak cold front on Saturday evening doesn't mess up our surf. And here's some numbers to crunch:


Water temps are still 58 degrees due to all the wind. Even though it's spring, it's not time to wear a spring suit. 

Tides this weekend are:
  • -0.3' at sunrise
  • 4.5' at lunch
  • 0.5' at sunset
Daylight hours this weekend are:
  • 6:50 AM sunrise
  • 7:05 PM sunset
For a more detailed THE Surf Report, check out http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/.

FORECAST:


The good NW on Sunday takes a slight dip Monday morning then we get another shot of shoulder high WNW late Monday. That peaks on Tuesday along with more background SW swell. 



On Wednesday the SW picks up a notch to the chest high+ range and then more WNW wind/groundswell on Thursday from 'supposed' showers (more on that below). 


After that the N Pacific takes a breather and the S Pacific tries to get it's act together. If it does, we may see better head high SW swell at the end of the month into the beginning of April. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

WEATHER:


Nice cool weather on tap tomorrow then a weak front moves by to the N on Saturday. MAYBE a chance of showers but don't hold your breath. That moves through on Sunday and we've got nice spring weather until at least Tuesday. Models show a slightly stronger cold front coming our way on Wednesday but that may just bring consistent showers into Thursday. No real storms to speak of- winter may be in our rear view mirror. 

BEST BET:
Late Saturday with WNW and a touch of SW. Or maybe Tuesday with more WNW and a touch of SW. Or maybe the end of the month with more consistent SW swells and less NW. 
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:


Been a lot of rain this winter. But has it put a dent in our drought? After being in a hole for almost a decade, can I finally water my lawn 3 times a day? Well, according to the Los Angeles Times...

It’s official: California is 100% drought-free.

For the first time since 2011, the state shows no areas suffering from prolonged drought and illustrates almost entirely normal conditions, according to a map released last Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Former Gov. Jerry Brown issued an executive order in 2017 that lifted the drought emergency in most of the state, leaving some breathing a sigh of relief. But he cautioned Californians to keep saving water as some parts of the state were still suffering from extreme drought.

Now, two years later, that deficit seems to have been erased, thanks to an exceptionally wet winter. “The reservoirs are full, lakes are full, the streams are flowing, there’s tons of snow,” said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with the National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “All the drought is officially gone.”



The Drought Monitor, which collects data from scientists from the National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and dozens of weather agencies, last showed a drought map that was clear in December 2011. In updating the map, scientists consult with hydrologists, water managers, meteorologists and other experts to determine the amount of water in the state’s reservoirs, the snowpack level and other key measurements. With the wet winter streak going strong, their reports have been good.

In January, storms filled up many of the state’s water reserves almost to capacity and added about 580 billion gallons of water to reservoirs across the state. That month, the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, a major source of California’s water supply, doubled — and then doubled again in February. “California has been getting a tremendous amount of rain, storms and snow,” Blunden said. “It’s just been extremely wet and it’s been so wet … that we’ve been able to alleviate drought across the state.”

A year ago, just 11% of the state was experiencing normal conditions while 88.9% of the state was “abnormally dry,” according to the drought report. Some parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties were still colored dark red, meaning they were experiencing “extreme drought.” Even last week, a small portion of Northern California was labeled as having “moderate drought” conditions. But as of last week, 93% of the state was experiencing normal conditions and none of it was in drought, Blunden said.


Small portions in the far northern and southern parts of the state were still marked as “abnormally dry,” but elsewhere, the map registered no drought conditions at all. In San Diego County, reservoirs were only 65% full, which contributed to the dry conditions in that area, Blunden said. And conditions are expected to return to normal this week in Northern California, she said. With more small storms expected in San Diego this week, that area also would likely come out of its dry spell entirely.

The rainy trend has extended across the United States, making for vast improvements in drought conditions, especially in the Western part of the country. Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, for example, have made significant progress, though much of those states are still classified as abnormally dry and are still experiencing drought conditions, Blunden said. Californians have a lot to be happy about, she said, but Blunden warned that could change.

“Dry conditions can easily creep back in,” she said. “That's why we adjust the map every week. The conditions change — and they can change fast sometimes.” Brown’s declaration was made after record rainfall in 2017. Then, in 2018, the state broke more records following an extremely dry winter. “We did see such major drought for five years,” Blunden said. “All of these storms came along and alleviated the drought. Everybody thought we were out of the woods, but then it came right back. “I think drought conditions can sneak up on you very quickly. It is good to be cautious and always think about conserving water.”

So just to be safe- no hosing down my driveway this summer?
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:


Taste the rainbow. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Dazzling
There Goes My Bracket
Still Getting Paid To Ride For Gotcha