I notice a pattern here.
SURF:
Actually had some fun surf from the SW this week IF... you were able to dodge the wind. Good news is that's typical springtime around here- cold fronts are dying as we move towards summer so we're left with a bit of wind, a chance of showers, and building SW swells. So as the storms finally dissipate this season, the SW swells will finally build. For this weekend though we just have leftovers from the SW with a touch of small NW windswell for waist high surf and the odd inconsistent chest high set at best spots. Weather should cooperate too with just the normal sea breeze and high clouds. All in a all a mellow weekend (I notice a pattern here).
Tides this weekend are:
- 1' at sunrise
- 4' mid-morning
- 1' late afternoon
- 4' at sunset
- (I notice a pattern here).
- 6:00 AM sunrise
- 7:30 PM sunset
- 13.5 hours of surfing time (if you drank a Red Bull every hour)
And water temps are hovering around 63. Nice to duck dive without an ice cream headache.
FORECAST:
After a quiet weekend, we finally see new SSW arrive late Monday for chest high+ surf. That peaks on Tuesday with shoulder high waves at best spots in far North County SD and the OC. There is a fly in the ointment though as another weak cold front may move through on Monday which may give us bumpy conditions like we've had (I notice a pattern here). Wednesday/Thursday start to drop to the waist/chest high range, then we finally get a real SW swell to kick off the spring late next Friday.
By Saturday we should have head high+ surf that holds into Sunday. The perfect present for your mom on Mother's Day!
The OC will see well overhead sets and we'll get a slight break Monday before a new similar sized SW arrives the afternoon of Tuesday the 14th. It will be good to see real surf again! Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
Nice mild weather this weekend will be replaced by more clouds and a chance of showers late Sunday into Monday. The rest of the week looks a little tricky to forecast as weak low pressure may hang around with small cold fronts moving through the area. Expect a chance of drizzle or even showers off and on most of next week (I notice a pattern here).
BEST BET:
Could be fun on Tuesday IF... we don't have wind. Looks like better/bigger SW next weekend and beyond though- with better weather? Pattern broken?!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Hurricane season is right around the corner. Which is good and bad for various reasons of course. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season ‘officially’ starts May 15th and the Atlantic hurricane season June 1st. Both run through November 30 but there is nothing perfect about these dates as tropical cyclones can appear almost anytime. Case in point- Tropical Storm Adrian in the Eastern Pacific which formed May 9th, 2017, almost a week before the ‘official’ start date. And a tropical depression formed in the Eastern Pacific on New Year’s Eve in 2015- a good way to start off your surf year.
There have been 24 recorded tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin outside the official Pacific hurricane season. Few off-season tropical cyclones in the east Pacific have affected land, and none of them have made landfall. Only Hurricane Nina (November 29th, 1957) caused both property damage and fatalities. The strongest hurricane between December and May was Hurricane Ekeka in 1992, which reached winds of 115 mph. However, after Tropical Storm Paka (December 2nd, 1997) crossed the International Date Line, it intensified into a typhoon with winds equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The beginning of HURDAT, the official Pacific hurricane database maintained by the NHC, is 1949. Since then, thirteen storms have occurred outside the official bounds of hurricane season in the eastern and central north Pacific, respectively. In addition, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center reports nine off-season storms from 1900–1952 with another off-season tropical cyclone occurring in 1832. There have been documents published in the Monthly Weather Review reporting additional off-season storms within 2,000 miles off the Mexican coastline, including one in December.
According to a report this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), two years ago this month the nation was in the middle of spring but NOAA’s National Hurricane Center was issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm for that year. This was a rare occurrence and only the second tropical storm on record in the month of April in the Atlantic, joining Ana which formed in 2003. But Ana and Arlene weren't the earliest storms in recent memory. In 2016 Hurricane Alex became the first hurricane to appear in the Atlantic basin in January since 1938.
When the U.S. Weather Bureau, the predecessor to the National Weather Service, organized its new hurricane warning network in 1935, a special telegraph line to connect the various hurricane centers was scheduled to operate for five months from June 15 through November 15. This period was the official season until 1965 when it was expanded to six months beginning June 1 and running to the end of November. Historically these dates encompass about 97% of the tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
But what about the remaining three percent? Tropical storms have formed in every month outside of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there have been a few hurricanes too. May is the most active month outside the official season, with seven named storms occurring during the past 10 years, including two in 2012 - Alberto and Beryl. And while it’s unusual, all it takes is the right combination of atmospheric conditions and warmer ocean waters for a tropical cyclone to form, regardless of the date.
Coastal locations and the high seas are never completely off the hook when it comes to tropical cyclones. If the potential develops for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form between December and May, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing Special Tropical Weather Outlooks to notify everyone of that possibility. So the bottom line is don’t 'assume' hurricane season is all about summer- it could be April or even December!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Sure boat trips are expensive, but with waves like this, it's worth selling the house for, right sweetheart?
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Daddy-O
Happy Meals Make Me Happy
Jimmy Slade From Baywatch Was Based On My Life
