Life is funny sometimes.
SURF:
For MONTHS there were no waves or weather to get excited about. Now there's too much to fit into one email. But I'm going to try. So here goes:
Last weekend we had fun NW/SW swells for shoulder high sets and that slowly tapered off during the week. On Tuesday night, our first real storm of the season rolled into town and all heck broke loose with an inch of rain and 8' stormsurf. Today was cleaner (wind-wise) but the water was filthy. Best bet this weekend is to stay out of the surf until at least Sunday.
BUT... we have a fun chest high+ NW headed our way on Saturday- so take your chances. Sunday the new swell drops slightly but we'll have great weather. Water temps are in the low 60's and here's what going on with the tides and sun this weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:25 AM
- 4:45 PM
- And tides this weekend are:
- 6' at sunrise
- 0' after lunch
- 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Monday starts off slow with nice weather and waist high NW.
The storm track seems to be active in the near future so we start to see new chest high NW arrive on Tuesday with our last good day of weather. On Wednesday the rain returns along with building head high NW. That lasts into Gobble Gobble day.
Next weekend should clean up with chest high surf and if the models are correct- more good NW around the 1st- if the weather cooperates too. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
Saturday with fun NW and great weather or Tuesday afternoon with new NW and the last of the good weather.
WEATHER:
Not a bad way to start our rainy season. 1" of rain along the coast of SD, 4" in the local mountains, and Big Bear received 1/2 a foot of snow. This weekend high pressure is in control with clear cool skies. Early in the week looks nice still, then as mentioned above, we're due for another good storm Wednesday through Friday possibly. Since we're only at 30% of normal for our rainfall so far this season, it's a blessing- even though it's screwing up the surf.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As reported in last week's THE Surf Report, we've got a mysteriously large blob of warm water off the coast of the western US. Scientists can't pinpoint the exact reason for the warming but it may be due in part to Global Warming. Each year, as humans emit billions of metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, nearly a third of the emissions ends up in the ocean, changing the chemical balance of the water. And as the climate changes, the ocean is also absorbing almost all of the Earth’s extra heat, melting ice that creates sea level rise, making the water uninhabitable for marine life, and changing the planet’s weather patterns. A new report from the IPCC, the UN panel that studies climate change, lays out exactly what’s at stake for the ocean as a result—and for humans, all of whom rely on the ocean either directly or indirectly. Here's what Fast Company magazine reported recently:
“What comes out of this report is that it’s going to hit us in so many ways,” says Mark Spalding, senior marine scientist for The Nature Conservancy, one of the organizations that contributed to the report. The litany of potential disasters from a changing ocean is horrifying: As the warming water melts ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, the sea level rises each year, putting hundreds of millions of people who live in low-lying coastal areas at risk of flooding. A warmer ocean supercharges hurricanes. Marine heatwaves can boost toxic algae and close fisheries. As the water absorbs CO2, it becomes more acidic, posing another threat to coral reefs. And all these impacts can exacerbate each other—coral reefs, for example, “play the role of a sea wall,” says Spalding. “They sit offshore like a barrier and they break waves before the waves get to land.” As storms get stronger, this natural protection is being lost at the same time.
For marine ecosystems, these threats are piling up on top of other human impacts. “A lot of the other damage we’ve done to habitats is making the threat of climate change worse,” he says. “We overfish, we damage coral reefs, we pollute. This idea that humans are adding to the problem comes out quite clearly in this report. The flip side to that is that we can do something about it. If we can reduce some of these parallel problems, we can at least buy ourselves some time to deal with the climate change piece of this.” The Nature Conservancy, for example, is working on projects to restore coral reefs and other marine ecosystems, as in a project in the Caribbean that created an insurance policy for coral reefs; hotels in the area pay a premium each month so that if a storm hits, the funding can immediately be used to rebuild the reefs to protect the hotels. Other projects are restoring mangroves, a coastal ecosystem that is uniquely good at sucking carbon from the air.
The biggest change that needs to happen, of course, is a move to a zero-carbon economy. “What happens depends on what decisions we make now and in the next few years,” says Spalding. “Do we follow a business-as-usual path? Or do we really knock it down and try to aim for [warming of just] 1.5 degrees?” The difference between limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, instead of 2 degrees, might sound small. But it’s actually huge. “It’s startlingly different between one and the other. The lowest emission scenario is still talking about just one meter of sea level rise in a couple of hundred years’ time. With a high-emissions scenario, we’re talking about multiple meters of sea level rise, which frankly is curtains for entire nations—even wealthy nations and cities that are on the coast.”
The biggest change that needs to happen, of course, is a move to a zero-carbon economy. “What happens depends on what decisions we make now and in the next few years,” says Spalding. “Do we follow a business-as-usual path? Or do we really knock it down and try to aim for [warming of just] 1.5 degrees?” The difference between limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, instead of 2 degrees, might sound small. But it’s actually huge. “It’s startlingly different between one and the other. The lowest emission scenario is still talking about just one meter of sea level rise in a couple of hundred years’ time. With a high-emissions scenario, we’re talking about multiple meters of sea level rise, which frankly is curtains for entire nations—even wealthy nations and cities that are on the coast.”
PIC OF THE WEEK:
The west coast is finally coming to life. Like this gem between San Diego and San Francisco. If you want to know it's exact location though, make sure to head on over to www.secretspots.com and you'll find GPS coordinates, maps, and webcams, all free of charge.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Enduring
Hulkamaniac
My Therapist Says It's Perfectly Fine That I Baby My Surfboards
