Don't give up just yet!
SURF:
Been quite interesting the past few months around here. Lack of consistent swells, beach closures, water temps running anywhere from 60-75, red tide, and overcast conditions- I'm ready to jump right into fall! Who's with me?!
As you know by now, it's been small around here since the July 4th swell (man that seems like ages ago- ahh, the good ol' days). That's 3 1/2 weeks of groveling. While the rest of the world has seen firing surf, we've been the sacrificial lamb unfortunately. Things have to turn around, right? Right. First things first though- no real swell activity this past week will result in small surf again this weekend- and cold water.
We have a small waist high combo swell on tap for Friday afternoon through Sunday. As far as the sun/water temps/tides go, here's what you need to know:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:03 AM sunrise
- 7:46 PM sunset
- Water temps might be the coldest I've ever felt for July. Normally we get an early season warm up in late May/early June, then the NW wind blows, and temps plummet to the low 60's mid-June, then it rebounds by July and we're set for the rest of the summer. THIS summer? Not so fast- we've had 2 periods of NW winds resulting in water temps around 60 earlier this month and of course this week. Thanks for nuthin' La Nina!
- And the tides are up and down this weekend (unlike the surf which is just... down)
- 1' at sunrise
- 4' at breakfast
- 2' after lunch
- 6' at sunset
FORECAST:
Still nothing of significance in the near term but we do get a little waist high+ boost from the NW/SW again on Wednesday (maybe a foot bigger than this weekend)?
After that, charts FINALLY show some life with a moderate storm forming off South America late this weekend which would give us chest high+ surf around the 11th.
THEN... models show a solid storm taking shape around the 6th which would give us head high sets around the 14th. Models that far out haven't been too accurate lately, so take it with a grain of salt. At least it's worth watching. Make
BEST BET:
Let's be honest- let's just wait until the 11th and hope for the best on the 14th.
WEATHER:
Hot inland this weekend (and near 125 again in Death Valley) but cool at the coast with patchy fog. The persistent NW winds lately are responsible for:
- our dropping water temps to the low 60's
- increase in NW windswell the next few days (better than no surf)
- cool temps along the coast while inland it bakes
This scenario should last through the weekend before we get back to more mild weather across Southern California by mid-week. Still no thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts (and no hurricanes either).
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
You've probably noticed the following this summer:
- cold water temps
- persistent clouds along the coast
- cool air temps
- lack of hurricanes
So what gives? Could it be the return of La Nina? I hope not. Here's the LA Times to shed some light:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch earlier this month, meaning that conditions are favorable for development of a La Niña in the next six months. A La Niña typically means a dry winter across the southern United States, including Southern California. La Niña is part of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often referred to as “ENSO.” It has nothing to do with the Ensos or their icy planet Ensolica in Star Wars, but La Niña is the cool phase of this climate phenomenon, and the opposite of its warm sibling, El Niño.
In summary, here in Southern California we might expect this fall/winter to have:
- increased wildfire danger
- less rain
- smaller surf
- more sun
- cooler air temps
- cooler ocean temps
Hope not (except for that 'more sun' part).
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Morocco means 'Place where the sun sets'. But I see the sun set at Beacons all the time and I've NEVER seen surf like that down there. Maybe I translated it wrong or something.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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