THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Surf is on! Come 'n get it! 

SURF:

Surf has been fun the past few days in North County San Diego with chest high+ combo from the NW/SW. The only bummer (you knew it was coming) is all the NW wind the past week. Sure it hasn't been too strong, but just that slight breeze has caused upwelling everyday to make our water temps drop 15 degrees since Sunday. Just when it's supposed to be our warmest water temps this time of year, it feels like March instead. But I'll take cold water as long as there's surf. Speaking of that, we had peaking SW swell today and a touch more NW windswell will show on Friday, which will keep us in chest high+ surf. Both swells drop off after that and we're back to waist high waves on Sunday. So get on it Friday morning before it's gone! And here's some numbers to crunch on:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:21 AM sunrise  
• 7:16 PM sunset

• Well, that was one of the quickest drop off in water temps I've ever seen. Last Sunday it was 79 degrees in Del Mar and by Thursday it was 63. That's not cool. Actually it is cool, but not in a good way. You know what I mean. 

• And here's the tides this weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• 4.5' at breakfast
• 2' after lunch
• 6' at sunset

FORECAST:

Still no major activity off Antarctica or the Aleutians (heard that before?), so no surf next week (i.e. waist high or under). 

Charts though do show a small storm forming off New Zealand/Antarctica this weekend which could send us shoulder high sets from the SW around September 5th. Clear your schedule! (Unless I just jinxed it of course). As far as the tropics go, we had a couple weak storms form off Mainland Mexico and Baja this week- but one was small and the other never got in our swell window- so we won't expect any surf from them. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes though!

BEST BET:

Friday with fun SW/NW combo. Or next weekend with better SW.

WEATHER:

Little bit of everything the next 7 days: First up, muggy late summer conditions have dissipated and we've got cooler weather on tap this weekend. Look for the return of low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings and temps in the low to mid-70's at the beaches. Early next week, monsoon moisture makes an uneventful return for slightly elevated temps and humidity. And then... high pressure may set up over the NE Pacific by the middle of next week and we could see slightly warmer temps, less clouds, and less humidity. In summary- mild temps are on tap the next 7 days. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Enjoy the humidity the past few days? Makes for nice sunsets at least. It thankfully is on it's way out for a few days, but it may show the wave of the future, when hot, muggy weather will be more common. Here's what the San Diego Union Tribune reported this week about the recent conditions- and soon to be long term:

Alexander Gershunov, a climate scientist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said “Heat waves are one of the extreme weather events that are most directly influenced by global warming,” Gershunov said. “Their activity has been increasing all over the globe. “Specifically, in California, they’re not only becoming more intense and longer-lasting, but they’re also changing their flavor, becoming more humid.”
The recent heat wave sent mercury soaring to triple digit temperatures in dozens of San Diego communities. Besides the heat were high relative humidity levels of 70 percent to 80 percent, said Samantha Connolly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Relative humidity represents the ratio of the current humidity to the highest possible amount of water the air can hold. The higher it is, the wetter the atmosphere. In the summer, it’s usually 20 percent to 30 percent in San Diego, Connolly said. Damp air doesn’t allow much evaporation, so it feels hotter than it is, making it harder for people to cool off. “That’s what we were seeing across most valley areas,” Connolly said. “We’re seeing temperatures in the 90s, but it feels like 100.”
The wetter air retains heat, so temperatures climb during the day and persist at night, allowing little relief. Nighttime lows, usually in the 60s during the summer in San Diego, didn’t drop much below 70 degrees Fahrenheit over the past week, Connolly said. “The humid heat is more oppressing during the day, and it doesn’t cool off at night, so you don’t get the respite from the heat at night,” Gershunov said. “It starts off warmer the next day, and after one or two or three of these cycles of oppressive heat during the day, and hot, muggy nights, especially people with health vulnerabilities, begin to get sick, and some people die.”

The high humidity in the recent weather pattern comes from air flow from a portion of the Pacific Ocean west of Baja California that’s warming faster than global oceans on average, he said. “A lot of the time in these big summer time heat waves, the air is brought in from the south, from that part of the ocean that’s warming a lot,” he said.
Climate change is expected to amplify heat waves in the future, as land and water temperatures increase, he said. Scientists are measuring those effects already, he said; over the last 22 years, San Diego broke heat records 89 times, but surpassed cold records only once. “The warming associated with climate change is projected to accelerate in the future,” he said. “In terms of heat waves, it’s like having heat waves on steroids. So the background climate warming makes heat waves hotter, and in California more humid, as well.” It’s not only uncomfortable, but also dangerous, he said. The normal human response to heat is sweat, which allows evaporative cooling through the skin. With humid air, sweat doesn’t evaporate off, and people can overheat.
That’s particularly hazardous to older or ill people, he said. And the COVID-19 pandemic makes it even harder to handle, since space at cooling centers may be limited by social distancing, and people facing economic hardship may not be able to afford to turn on air conditioning at home. It requires a new approach to reducing heat risk, he said, perhaps including reducing electricity rates during heat waves to make life-saving cooling more affordable. “We probably need to rethink our mitigation and intervention strategies,” he said. “There’s got to be some plan to mitigate the impact of these humid heat waves.”

PIC OF THE WEEK: Haven't heard from Mason, JOB, or Blair lately? If I was a betting man, I'd put $1000 bucks down in Laughlin that they're attempting to ride this.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Got The Inside Track

Still Enjoy Finger Painting

Did My 1st Aerial In Palm Springs (The Tramway That Is, Not The Surf Club)

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

C'mon Genevieve! 

SURF:

Was pretty fired up on the chest high surf this week. First 'big' swell in 6 weeks! Looks like that S swell though is peaking today so if you want to surf anything that looks semi-rideable, get on it Friday morning before it's gone. We should also have a small waist high boost from the NW on Friday so that will help out. 

Saturday looks pretty small then we get another small waist high boost from the NW on Sunday and MAYBE waist high swell from former Major Hurricane Genevieve (and bigger in the OC). Genevieve last week looked promising on the forecast models but she ended up hugging the Mexican coast the past few days and never got in our swell window. It's been so small around here though that I'll take what I can get. On a more positive note, the lack of wind the past few days and partly sunny skies has resulted in water temps from 75-77. If this keeps up, we may see water temps hitting 80 next week? So we've got that going for us. And here's some numbers to crunch on:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:17 AM sunrise  
• 7:27 PM sunset

• Water temps as mentioned above are mid-70's. Seems like decades ago that the water temps were 60 (actually, it was 3 weeks ago). FYI- our warmest water temps of the year usually occur from mid-August to September 1st, so expect a cool down in a couple weeks that will most likely last until mid-February. 

• And the tides this weekend are all over the place so plan your session accordingly:
• 0' at sunrise
• 5.5' at lunch
• 1.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Still no major activity off Antarctica (it's late season anyway) or the Aleutians (it's early season anyway) but we did have a small storm off New Zealand a few days ago that will send more waist to chest high surf to our beaches starting late Tuesday (along with small NW windswell) that lasts into Thursday. The forecast charts are also showing some life off Mainland Mexico next week so there's a small chance we see more tropical swell late next week. But I wouldn't put much stock into it since we haven't seen a hurricane swell yet this year (or maybe we're overdue)? Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET:

Friday with small SW/NW combo. Sunday with small S/NW combo. Or next Wednesday/Thursday with slightly better SW. 

WEATHER:

Typical late summer weather around here with lots of humidity, hot temperatures, thunderstorms in our deserts/mountains, and stubborn fog/haze at the beaches. It's been so hot in fact, that Death Valley on Sunday may have hit an all time high- for anywhere in the world. That's just plain scary. As reported last month in THE Surf Report, the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth was also observed in Death Valley — 134 degrees Fahrenheit in 1913. However, many experts contend that temperature reading, along with various other temperatures recorded that summer, was likely an observer error. A 2016 analysis by Weather Underground historian Christopher Burt revealed that other observations from the region in 1913 simply do not square with the Death Valley reading. Because of the unique landscape and meteorology, the daily readings from the various observation sites in that area of the desert Southwest are almost always in lockstep with each other. But during the week the all-time record was set in 1913, while other sites were around 8 degrees above normal, the Death Valley readings were 18 degrees above normal. In 1931, a record-high temperature for Africa was recorded in Tunisia at 131 degrees. However, according to Burt, this recording, and many others in Africa from the colonial period, has "serious credibility issues." Because of these discrepancies, experts say the hottest temperature ever "reliably" recorded on Earth is 129.2 degrees, from 2013 in Death Valley. That is, until now. Assuming no abnormalities are apparent, Sunday's reading of 130 degrees will likely be accepted. It seems the reading is not suspect, but if there is reason for skepticism, the National Weather Service or World Meteorological Society may choose to conduct a review.

So on that note... Death Valley is in the middle of a 7 day streak where the daily high could reach at least 125 degrees (hopefully ending by Friday). And if that's not enough, the low temps are around 98-100 degrees. That's the LOW temp. Wow. As far as out beach temperatures go, it's been humid as heck but at least the daily temps have been in the high 70's. And due to all the humidity and ocean temps around 75, our lows at night only drop 3-4 degrees to 70-72. Never seen that before. One of the downsides to the extreme heat in the deserts (besides the whole heat stroke thing), is that our fog is getting pulled inland in response to the rising air and sticking around at the beaches (really shouldn't complain). The high pressure may shift this weekend, along the clouds to break up at the beaches earlier for more sun. That's IF... Hurricane Geneieve doesn't break apart and send her clouds our way over the weekend. If she does, look for less fog but more tropical clouds overhead. So many things going on...

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Sharks as you know live in a variety of water temps- from the frigid waters off South Africa, to our temperate waters here in Southern California, and of course the numerous warm water reef sharks from Hawaii to Reunion Island. But just how bad ass are sharks when it comes to hot water? Can they actually live next to an active volcano? A recent study by Professor Michael Heithaus from Florida International University seems to think so. Here's what he found:

There are a lot of places scientists would expect to find sharks in the ocean. Inside the bubbling cavern of an active marine volcano definitely isn’t one of them. Nevertheless, when researchers began studying the Kavachi volcano in the Solomon Islands with underwater cameras that’s exactly what they found. A whole bunch of sharks of various species had flocked to the volcano despite a recent eruption. Seemingly unbothered by the fact that ultra-hot liquid rock was flowing just beneath them, the sharks seemed perfectly at home. But why? Since that discovery in 2015, researchers have been trying to answer that very question.

The underwater volcano is very active, and eruptions are common. With that in mind, you’d think it would be a pretty dangerous place for sharks to congregate. Scientists have suggested that the animals have adapted to this strange environment thanks in large part to a special feature of their bodies called the ampullae of Lorenzini. One theory is that a collection of pores near the sharks’ snout that may allow them to sense changes in Earth’s magnetic field, which could give them an early warning that the volcano is about to erupt and allow them to zip away to a safe distance.

“It looked like the sharks in the volcano were used to dealing with eruptions,” Professor Michael Heithaus, who has been studying the sharks for several years. “You would think it’s dangerous but studies have shown us they can detect approaching hurricanes and cyclones, so they may be able to detect when something bad is about to happen and move out of the way.” But why exactly are the sharks attracted to the volcano in the first place? That’s a question that has yet to be answered, though there are a few solid theories floating around.

“Extreme environments are something they can clearly handle; whether it’s a volcano or surviving thousands of feet underwater,” Professor Heithaus explains. “It’s really not yet known why they are there. It could be something to do with reproduction, or who knows what else is living in there. Maybe they’re just sniffing out a meal.” The idea that the sharks would choose the area as a hunting ground does make a good bit of sense since fishermen would likely avoid the active volcano, allowing prey fish to flourish nearby and giving the sharks plenty to eat. Or maybe they just like living in a sauna.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

2020 got you down? Wish you were traveling more? Tired of looking at the same 4 walls during quarantine? Looking to help a good cause? If you answered yes to any of those questions, have I got a solution for you: Introducing F Stop Blues, a collection of canvas images from father and son photographers Michael and Alex Glenn. Our prints are meant to inspire; if you've never visited these locales, we hope these images lighten up your home, office, or wherever you want to be once this whole virus thing is over. 

Alex Glenn got into photography at an early age and always carried a camera with him on family trips. As Alex got older, he got more serious about photography and so did his equipment. But when most kids graduate high school and ask themselves 'What is the meaning of life?'; Alex asked 'What am I going to do with all these photos'?! I saw an opportunity for him through a real world experience: how to be an entrepreneur, and F Stop Blues was born. As Alex continues his college education and studies photography, he'll also be overseeing operations for F Stop Blues and turning his dream into reality. Thanks for the support and we hope you enjoy these canvas prints in your home and office as much as we did capturing these photos.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Sheesh! Why are you so angry looking? What did I ever do to you besides overfishing, Exxon Valdez oil spill, Great Pacific Garbage Patch, dirty storm runoff, Fukushima nuclear disaster... Forget I asked. Sorry. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Handsome If I Say So Myself

Really Looking Forward To 2021

You Should Surf With Doc Renneker And Myself. I Mean, He's Been WSL Big Wave Champion For 3 Years Running And I'm No Slouch Myself

THE Surf Report- Early Early Edition

I  L.A.

SURF:

Let's be honest; this just isn't our summer around here. The past 2 months (if you remove the 4th of July swell) have been pretty meager. And the long range models have been inconsistent to say the least. The past 2 months have shown hope in the long term but as the day gets closer to a storm actually coming to fruition- it fizzles. AND... if the the tropics and southern hemisphere did actually produce a swell, they've been:

1. small storms, or...
2. due S which isn't the best angle for San Diego or...
3. pointed towards South America

So while the OC and L.A. also haven't been all that big, it has been rideable up there. Leaving us just meager waist high+ surf down here. But don't worry- we'll get the last laugh this winter. So until then, embrace mediocrity! So what do we have going on this weekend? Glad you asked! The answer is... just more of the same. 

We've got background SW swells from the southern hemisphere on Friday/Saturday for waist high+ surf and models show another small hurricane off Baja forming that may give far north county SD chest high sets and a chance of shoulder high surf in the OC/LA areas late Sunday/Monday. And if you're looking for good news, we've got tropical moisture streaming overhead and warm air temps which will finally make it feel like summer around here. Add in WSW wind (vs. that pesky WNW wind) and our water temps may hit 70 again by Monday. Let's hope. As far as the sun/water temps/tides go, here's what you need to know:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:13 AM sunrise  
• 7:33 PM sunset

• As mentioned above, all that WNW wind the past week (as well as lingering clouds at the coast), dropped our water to the mid-60's again, which is a few degrees colder than it should be for mid-August. But if the heat wave this weekend holds, look for 70's in the water early next week. 

• And the tides are medium to high this weekend (no negative tides in sight):
• 2' at sunrise
• 4' mid-morning
• 2' after lunch
  
• 6' at sunset 

FORECAST:

Monday's potentially small hurricane swell will fizzle and Tuesday/Wednesday will be tiny again. 

More small storms off Antarctica/New Zealand this week though will give us waist high surf with chest high sets late Thursday into the weekend. 

There may even be a 3rd hurricane lining up early next week too which could add to the mix late next week- but most likely just for the OC/LA (may need to buy a 2nd house at the Wedge or Malibu. Anyone got a spare $20 million they could float me? After that, it's looking slow again but make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET:

Late Sunday/early Monday with a chance of small hurricane swell (if you live in the OC) or later next week with waist to chest high SW swell. Set those alarms! 

WEATHER:

High pressure in the SW, along with weaking tropical depression Elida, will send a heat wave and tropical moisture overhead this weekend. Look for temps in the high 70's at the beaches and cool looking sunsets. Due to our colder than normal water temps, fog may return to the beaches on Sunday and linger in the nights/mornings with only partial afternoon clearing next week. 

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Amazing to think that Shark Week on the Discovery Channel is over 30 years old now. So in celebration of our toothy friends, Newsweek has put together some facts you may not know about them...

1. Each whale shark's spot pattern is unique as a fingerprint: Though the image of a large, sharp-toothed great white on the poster for Jaws might be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about sharks, they come in many shapes and sizes. Whale sharks, which are the largest species of shark as well as one the largest creatures that live in the ocean measuring around 40 feet long. As is the case with human fingerprints, the spotted patterns on the back of each whale shark are unique. Organizations like the World Wildlife Fund can use this to help identify and keep track of the animals.
2. Not all sharks live in salt water: Just like how all sharks don't look the same, they also don't all live in the same environments. While the majority of sharks do live in the ocean, some species prefer fresher water, like bow sharks. But there might be a good reason so many sharks prefer salt water, and it can be found in their livers. Unlike many underwater creatures, sharks do not have swim bladders—which help animals with buoyancy. They do have quite large livers that can help a bit with buoyancy, but scientists have found that the composition of salt water is easier for sharks to float in making it a more obvious choice for where they choose to spend their time.
   
3. Sharks can be pregnant for over three years: Many large animals in the animal kingdom have long gestation periods: Elephants can carry their babies for up to 22 months before giving birth, Walruses for up to 16 months, but some species of sharks will carry their young for over three years. The frilled shark has the longest record and can be pregnant for three-and-a-half years before giving birth. 
   
4. Sharks have a sixth sense: We all probably know that sharks have a keen sense of smell, especially if that smell is blood, but what might come as a surprise is that they actually have a sixth sense that picks up electric fields given off by animals in surrounding waters. In fact, they are the best electrical sensors on the planet, having more sensitivity to electricity than measuring equipment built to detect such currents. This is also why sharks are able to hunt in dark or murky water. Scientists are also trying to use this feature to help protect sharks against accidents with fishing equipment by developing a system of magnets that could repel sharks from nets and lines.
5. Shark embryos in eggs can sense danger: This supercharged skill doesn't just begin after birth, sharks can start detecting these electrical currents from inside an egg. While some sharks have live births, like humans, some sharks lay eggs. As the shark develops and grows inside of the egg, the bottom of the "mermaid's purse," as the sac is called, opens up so the shark can start getting the nutrients from seawater. But, when the sac opens, it does make the undeveloped animal a bit more vulnerable to surrounding predators, which is when the sixth sense comes in. Scientists say the sense develops after the sac opens, which allows the animal to sense the electricity of a possible predator and freeze themselves to not cause a stir.
   
6. Great white sharks can go weeks without eating: Great white sharks are probably one of the most famous species of sharks—certainly since Jaws. As the name suggests, these animals are quite big, which means they do require a lot of food to survive—though not as much as you might think. They eat around 11 tons of food of year, but considering one of their favorite foods—a sea lion—weighs more than half a ton, they reach that 11-ton mark pretty quickly. In fact, after a large meal, a great white shark can go up to three months without consuming another meal.
7. Humans kill sharks far more often than sharks kill humans: In 2019, just two people were killed as the result of a shark attack and the amount of total unprovoked shark attacks was down to 64 from an average of 82. Both fatal shark attacks happened outside of the United States, one near Reunion Island and the other in the Bahamas. The majority of attacks, however, do happen in the U.S. Conversely, humans kill about 100 million sharks per year on average worldwide. The odds of being attacked by a shark and in turn killed by a shark are so slim—you are more likely to be killed by a wasp or dog than you are a shark. With that in mind, though, keep a lookout for shark sightings and always respect local guidelines for swimming at a beach.
   
8. A shark's life span is much longer than previously believed: For years, scientists have estimated that the average life span of sharks is roughly 30 years. The most widely used way of determining a shark's age is by counting bands on the animal's vertebrae. Newer techniques, however, might lead to a more accurate reading on shark's ages. One study found that Greenland sharks can live for more than three centuries. The great white shark and sand sharks are two other species whose life spans have likely been underestimated.
   
9. Sharks are unable to make audible noise: Over 400 species of sharks exist, and not one of them has the ability to make sound—at least an audible one. They do not have the ability to make sound the way humans do, or more relatively, the way whales do. Dory, in Finding Nemo famously claims she can speak whale, which is the sound we all might associate with the sound a whale makes, but there is no such sound associated with a shark.
   
10. Sharks can live in volcanoes: Yup, you read that right. In 2015, scientists discovered sharks swimming around one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the world, which should only really be hospitable to microscopic organisms. They were spotted not long after an eruption which stumped scientists. The volcano, Kavachi, is located near the Solomon Islands in the southwest Pacific ocean. Given the nature of the location, it is hard to study in person so scientists sent down robots to get a closer look. Sharkcano, which is part of Nat Geo's Sharkfest, chronicles scientists' journeys to various underwater volcanoes to study the sharks' behavior further.
    

PIC OF THE WEEK:

New Zealand is approximately the same size as California. BUT...

• There are only 5 million people in New Zealand vs. 40 million in California
• New Zealand has 9,300 miles of coastline vs. 840 miles for California

Now you know why this break is empty. Anyone else want to buy a 1 way ticket to New Zealand with me?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Knowledgeable

Traded In My Ford Pinto For A Hyperion XP-1

Saw A Shark Bite The Ear Of Mike Tyson

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Embrace mediocrity!

SURF:

Had a friend call me this week. He was excited to see waist high+ waves. If that's the new normal, I've got a 5'10" 'rhino chaser' I'd like to sell you. 

Had a little combo swell earlier in the week for ALMOST chest high sets at the best spots and then reinforcing NW windswell this morning. If that's not impressive, how about water temps in the high 60's for August? Yawn. For this weekend, we've got more waist high+ SW/NW. If you're not 4'8" and 75 lbs. OR ride a longboard, it may be a struggle. 

We did though have a small storm off Antarctica last week which will start to send chest high sets our way late Sunday. Stoke! Embrace it! As far as the sun/water temps/tides go, here's what you need to know:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:06 AM sunrise  
• 7:42 PM sunset

• As you've probably noticed, we've had SW winds this week which has helped warm up our water temps to 70 today. Surprisingly, that's about average for early August- we've just been spoiled with the El Nino's the past decade where water temps were almost 80; 10 degrees warmer than today...

• And the tides are mellow this weekend:
• 1' at breakfast
• 4.5' after lunch
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

The small storm off Antarctica mentioned above will peak Monday and fade Tuesday. That swell will also be met with more NW windswell. Not the biggest but it will be fun. I wonder if it will be crowded? Regardless, keep your distance and get your chest high groove on. Models last week also showed a good storm taking shape that would have given us fun surf again towards the 15th but... that fell apart quickly. There is also some forecasted activity in the tropics which may give us waist high surf around the 15th but... it's been eerily quiet down there so we'll see. 

Models finally show some life off Antarctica this weekend and if it holds true, I'm hoping to see at least shoulder high surf around the 17th. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET:

Monday with small but fun combo swell or wait 11 days IF that swell materializes around the 17th...

WEATHER:

Seasonal weather is on tap this weekend as weak low pressure to the N starts to retreat and weak low pressure from the E sets up shop. Look for the normal low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings then temps in the mid-70's at the beaches. Looks to be about the same next week. And no monsoon moisture in the mountains/deserts (or at the beaches for that matter). 

 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Been a lot of sharks along our coast the past few years- that's not a secret. But is it only 1 or 2 swimming amongst us? Probably not. But don't start to freak out- if sharks wanted to snack on us, they'd be doing it all day long- and they're not of course. Looks like a vast majority of the time they're smart enough to notice the difference between a surfer and a seal. Here's the San Diego Union Tribune to explain: 

On a cloudy morning Wednesday this summer, shark researchers from Cal State Long Beach followed a young white shark as it wound its way along the shore off Del Mar. Using a drone to spot the animal and an inflatable boat to follow it, they traced the shark’s path across the rocky reef as it darted past surfers waiting in the lineup. The footage they captured didn’t represent a rare appearance of the ocean predator among beachgoers, but an everyday occurrence on the Southern California coastline. White sharks, known popularly as “Great Whites,” are regular visitors that share the sea with us daily, new studies are finding.

Classic horror films notwithstanding, juvenile white sharks glide every day among surfers, swimmers and paddle-boarders, generally without incident. “There are lots of sharks out there this summer, and people are in and amongst them, not getting bitten,” said Chris Lowe, professor and director of the Cal State Long Beach Shark Lab. When bites do happen, they can be catastrophic, such as the fatal attack on Solana Beach triathlete Dave Martin in 2008, or the life-threatening leg injury that swimmer Leeanne Ericson sustained at “Church” beach off San Onofre in 2017. The Shark Research Committee, a nonprofit that tracks shark activity on the West Coast, has documented more than 100 shark attacks on the Pacific Coast since 2000, including six fatalities.

Lowe and his team are studying when and where white sharks appear and what circumstances lead to attacks in order to improve beach safety. The team is measuring temperature, prey availability, and other environmental factors, along with human activity in the ocean. They’re working closely with lifeguards at Southern California beaches to analyze how people use the water, and what happens during white shark interactions. “Our goal is to learn more about the patterns, so we can predict where and when they’ll show up,” Lowe said. “So by working with lifeguards, they can make decisions on when to post signs, when to close beaches, if they show up. And then we can get that out to the public so they can modify their behavior if necessary.”

The team has been tagging white sharks at beaches along the coast of Southern California, using acoustic transmitters that record their movements. So far this year, they have tagged about 30, most of those off the coast of Ventura and Santa Barbara, some off the Central Coast, and just one at Del Mar. White sharks congregate at “hot spots” including Santa Barbara, Ventura, Santa Monica Bay, Long Beach/Huntington Beach, and the San Clemente/San Onofre area, said Patrick Rex, a graduate student at the Shark Lab. Those change from year to year; recently, there have been large aggregations off Santa Barbara, and fewer in San Diego, possibly because of red tide events, he said.

Researchers have installed buoys that record the tag transmissions. They collect the data monthly and share with the lifeguards, Lowe said. The team has also developed a buoy with a real-time sensor that will alert lifeguards and scientists by text each time a white shark swims by. In addition, they fly drone surveys off beaches in San Diego County and elsewhere to record sharks as they move among people in the water. “We look at how many sharks are in close proximity to people, and we also look at how sharks behave when they’re close to people,” Lowe said.

Most sharks found off Southern California beaches aren’t behemoths like those featured on “Shark Week,” or “Deep Blue” the massive female recorded on video off Guadalupe Island in Mexico. White sharks can grow to 20 feet or more, according to a NOAA species profile, and live up to 70 years, Lowe said. Those close to shore, however, are typically juveniles ranging from newborn to several years old: “babies” or “toddler sharks,” as researchers Rex and James Anderson of Shark Lab refer to them. The young sharks are usually about four to nine feet long, they said, and likely seek shallow waters for heat, food and protection. Sharks are cold-blooded, and rely on the environment to maintain their body temperature. So younger ones, with smaller body mass, gravitate to warmer water. That’s also a better bet for juvenile sharks that haven’t yet learned to hunt marine mammals.

“The most abundant food source and easiest for them to catch is stingrays,” Lowe said. “We have lots of stingrays in our water.” They may also select shallow water to avoid adult white sharks, which will happily eat their young. Given that, the young sharks are often hungry and skittish. That’s what the researchers saw that Wednesday, as they searched for sharks off Del Mar. Rex flew the drone in long transects off the coast, looking for sharks in the surf, while Anderson communicated with colleagues on the boat to alert them to any sightings. The water was calm, but the overcast sky cast an opaque glare onto the surface, making it hard to see creatures below.

Surfers lined up along the low waves, distance swimmers paddled to an outer buoy, and kids splashed at the water’s edge. For several hours, Rex piloted the drone over the site, seeking a quick, dark shape in the surf. Dolphins surfaced in the waves, and sea lions worked the line behind the breakers, hunting for fish. Rex paid close attention to that zone; the sharks often follow the same route just beyond the crashing waves. Just after 10:30 a.m., he spotted a small white shark swimming north. It was about six feet long, he said, and tough to follow as it swam over dark patches of reef that camouflaged its shape. Anderson alerted the boat, which headed south to meet it. Just as they reached the spot, the drone began losing power, and Rex brought it in to replace the battery. He returned it to the site, and scouted out the shark again, while the boat crew readied a fishing spear fitted with an acoustic tag. For the next 20 minutes, the boat and shark played a game of chase behind the surf lineup, with the animal veering away each time the crew approached. Surfers didn’t appear to notice the race taking place nearby, and almost certainly couldn’t see the shark deep below the surface.

That’s a scene that takes place routinely on the Southern California coast, where beachgoers unwittingly swim alongside white sharks. “We’re one year into a two-year study, and during summer, as we had seen from our tagging data, people are in the water near these white sharks quite often and they don’t know it,” Lowe said. So what tips the scales, and turns a passing encounter into an attack? That’s what Lowe and his team hope to learn.

Sheer numbers are part of the equation. As Southern California’s population has grown, so has its beach visitation, which means more people in the ocean with sharks. Beach use estimates often include cars in the parking lots, or rough head counts on the shore. But there aren’t good figures for people in the water, Lowe said. Drone surveys will help quantify that.

Sharks, too, appear to be more numerous. Researchers don’t have the kind of hard numbers they would get for species that are fished commercially, but there are indications the white shark population is growing, said Heidi Dewar, a marine biologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Tighter regulations on fisheries have reduced the catch of sharks in nets, and marine mammals such as sea lions have recovered, increasing food resources for adult white sharks. Anecdotal sightings of white sharks have surged in recent years, and photo identification surveys have confirmed more sharks at Guadalupe Island, she said. In a recent paper on shark populations, she estimated there are about 3,000 white sharks in the Pacific Ocean off North America. “It’s scary to think of white sharks being out there, but it actually means that we’re making good choices from a marine management perspective, and the population is recovering,” she said.

What does this mean for humans? Potentially fewer stingrays, for one thing, as young sharks gobble them up. Might we also be meals for hungry sharks? “We’re definitely not on their menu,” Lowe said. “We know that. That is well-determined globally. We know that people are occasionally bitten. And one of the theories is they mistake us for prey. Another idea is they might bite when they’re threatened, to defend themselves.” Through drone flights, Lowe, Rex and colleagues are counting the number of surfers, swimmers, stand-up paddleboarders, bodyboarders and waders, to analyze and predict encounters with sharks. "So far, what we’ve seen is the sharks don’t really care,” Rex said. “They don’t pay attention to people. Unless the person gets too close, and then they usually just startle and swim away. We have not documented any aggressive behavior from a juvenile white shark to a person.”

The juvenile white shark they followed on Wednesday appeared to follow that playbook, evading researchers for hours while they tried unsuccessfully to track and tag it. “Unfortunately, it was a combination of a shark that didn’t want to get close - young sharks like that are just pretty skittish - and just bad conditions,” Rex said. “This one just did not want to play ball.”

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I would give my first born to surf that right now. Actually, he's headed off to college next week so I guess I'll have to offer something else. How about I gladly pay you Tuesday for a hollow wave today? (with apologies to J. Wellington Wimpy)

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Immense

Earned A Masters In Life Lessons

My Board Rides Shotgun. And If You Don't Like, You Don't Ride