THE Surf Report

 

That's Summer Knocking

SURF:

Summer was hibernating the past week with tiny surf and cold water but hopefully we're back on track this weekend. 

We've got fun SW filling in tomorrow for chest high sets later in the day and shoulder high sets Saturday/early Sunday. Weather should be good too with monsoon moisture returning in the mountains AND water temps rebounding to the low 70's. If the swell was bigger, I'd turn on the Emergency Boardriding System (EBS). Considering we'll have fun surf, sunny skies, and trunkable water temps, I'll turn on the smaller solar powered EBS for the heck of it. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:12 AM sunrise 
• 7:34 PM sunset

• I don't know what to make of our water temps the past month. They've been as high as 75 and as low as 60. I'm hoping the NW winds go away and we can keep this 70 degree water temps.

• And tides are up and down this weekend:
• -0.5' at sunrise
• almost 5' at noon
• 1.5' late afternoon
• back to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

Nothing major on the horizon but we will have more small SSW swells headed our way. 

First up is a waist high+ SW the middle of next week with slightly bigger sets towards the OC. 

Charts then show a storm pulling together off Antarctica this weekend which should give us more waist to chest high surf around the 21st. The tropics are also active and we've got storm activity off Mainland Mexico today so I'm keeping my fingers crossed something shows up here later next week.

WEATHER:

I have to admit, I don't think I've ever seen such consistent monsoon conditions. The past two weeks have been relentless in our mountains and deserts. So much in fact, that Death Valley received almost 1.5" last Friday in a 3 hour span- and they only get 2.2" of rain a year! It was basically a once in a 1,000 year event. For this weekend... we have more monsoon moisture headed our way. Look for the mountains/deserts to receive the bulk of thunderstorms and a few could drift into the inland valleys. Here along the coast, just look for higher humidities and temps in the high 70's. For early next week, models show the humidity backing off but then increasing again by Tuesday with MAYBE a chance of a stray thunderstorm along the coast. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

This weekend with fun SW, warmer water temps, and tropical weather. Mini EBS has been activated!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

A favorite topic of horror movies through out the years has been zombies over taking the earth or robots seizing control. I know we're getting close to fiction becoming reality because I've seen Mark Zuckerberg on an electric hydrofoil. In another sign that HAL from 2001: A Space Odyssey is here: robot surfboards. But in the movies where robots are the bad guys, this story has a useful purpose:
 
Saildrones, so-called "robot surfboards," are being guided into hurricanes in the Atlantic this summer, with the goal of improving storm forecasts. The seafaring drones are equipped with a specially designed hurricane wing, which allows them to operate in the extreme wind conditions encountered in hurricanes.

 
Greg Foltz, an oceanographer at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami told USA TODAY that the saildrones are not moored. "They are deployed near land during June and July and then directed to predefined regions where hurricanes have historically tracked. The saildrones then operate and send back data during the peak of the hurricane season (August to October). "They are directed remotely by saildrone pilots working with NOAA scientists, and their routes are adjusted based on whether there is a tropical cyclone developing that we can send the drones into."

This year, three of the saildrones will also work together with underwater gliders to obtain measurements of the upper ocean and air-sea interface. One specific aspect of forecasts studied will be the rapid intensification of hurricanes. By bringing the saildrones and underwater gliders close to each other, NOAA can then  capture measurements at the same place and time, painting a fuller picture of the dynamics that are known to influence hurricane strength, said Jennie Lyons, director of public affairs at NOAA’s National Ocean Service.
 
"Storms that intensify rapidly can cause extensive damage and loss of life," said John Cortinas, the director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, in a statement. "Real-time observing systems are crucial to better understand the atmospheric and oceanic processes that lead to the formation and intensification of these hurricanes," he added. During the 2021 hurricane season, a saildrone collected critical data and the first-ever video from inside Category-4 Hurricane Sam as it churned out in the Atlantic.

A recent study using that data found that the saildrone's wind measurements taken from Hurricane Sam matched measurements from satellites and a buoy, providing confidence in the saildrone's ability to collect accurate data in the harsh conditions of a major hurricane, NOAA said. This year, for the first time, two of the saildrones will also prowl the Gulf of Mexico, and will be used to gather information if hurricanes approach the Gulf Coast. According to NOAA, hurricanes don’t only present a persistent threat to human safety in coastal cities, they also present a significant economic impact – hurricane damage in the U.S. is estimated at around $54 billion annually.
 
The saildrones will transmit meteorological and oceanographic data, including air temperature and relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, water temperature and salinity, sea surface temperature, and wave height and duration. "The data obtained by the saildrones will be made available to NOAA researchers as well as NOAA forecasters in near real-time,"Foltz said. "It will also be transmitted in near real-time to the World Meteorological Organization's global telecommunications center, where it is also available to forecast centers around the world."  
 
However, at least for now, the data "will not be ingested in into NOAA's operational hurricane forecast models. At this stage, the data is for general awareness of forecasters at NOAA's National Hurricane Center," Foltz said. NOAA is working to develop a way for operational forecast models to use the saildrone data in the future, he added. That work involves testing how the data would affect current forecasts and how it might improve accuracy.
 
There are a total of seven saildrones in use this year, which are a part of a larger NOAA endeavor to understand hurricane intensification. They will join the array of underwater gliders, surface drifters, profiling floats and aerial assets to gain deeper insight than ever before into the development of these killer storms. 
 
So if a saildrone accidentally 'snakes' you in the line up, keep your cool, it's only doing it's job. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

In the immortal words of Turtle: "If the wave breaks here, don't be there. Or you're gonna get drilled'.  

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
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