The Best Things In Life Are Free
SURF:
For being loyal THE Surf Report readers all these years, I was going to get you all a brand new shiny surfboard for Christmas. But I thought- you know what- the best things in life are free. And for the Shredder that has everything- I thought the gift of waves was more appropriate. So for the holidays, I'm giving each and everyone one of you the Joy of Surf (I'm trademarking that by by the way). Which is invaluable considering how flat it's been recently. Now, no need to thank me, just make sure you get out there and RIP! (And don't snake me).
First up is a W swell which will fill in Friday afternoon to the chest high range. That will last until Sunday morning. We also have small late season S swell in the waist high range for all you OC fans. Weather is also looking good with light winds and temps in the low 70's all weekend. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Did you notice our days are getting longer? Yep- the winter solstice was yesterday and the sun is staying out longer (only 1 minute longer than last weekend, but still):
- 6:49 AM sunrise
- 4:49 PM sunset
- Water temps are a chilly 59 degrees.
- And in addition to the fun surf I'm gifting you, here's some extreme tides you'll find in your stockings:
- 5' at sunrise
- almost 7' mid-morning
- and almost -2' at sunset
- that's about a 9' tide swing! You can't tell me that's not impressive.
FORECAST:
May have to turn on the ol' Emergency Boardriding System next week as we've got a couple good swells on the charts- and maybe some showers?...
Look for more W swell to fill in Monday afternoon for chest high+ surf in N County SD (and bigger in S County SD). Tuesday looks to be shoulder high and Wednesday looks to have head high sets.
We also have a late season S swell forecasted to arrive mid-week. The OC will see most of it (chest high+) but impressive nonetheless for this time of year.
Beyond that, models show more W swell taking aim at us for shoulder high+ surf towards New Years Eve. The only fly in the ointment is that the storm door may be open and we could see showers or rain the 2nd half of next week (maybe as early as Tuesday evening). Guess you can't have your fruitcake and eat it too. No complaints from me though- I'd rather have surf & showers than flat waves & fine weather.
WEATHER:
There's been a lot of talk recently about people leaving California. And I have no opinion one way or another. Sure it's expensive here and there's a lot of great places to live in this world. BUT... have you seen the Arctic blast that's hitting the majority of the country this week? One of my favorite spots to visit, Montana, was -35 degrees last night and today the high is only -20 (that's not a typo). It's so cold that the ski resorts are even closed out of an abundance of caution. Meanwhile... here in Southern California it's supposed to be... 75 degrees on Christmas. So we have that going for us. You know what I always say though- we sure could use some rain around here. Luckily, for a variety of reasons, looks like rain could be in our near future. Models are predicting another atmospheric river to slam into Northern/Central California next week which would maybe give us showers down here by Tuesday evening/Wednesday. After that, the storm door may be open for us to get more substantial rain the 2nd half of next week. Changes look to be happening in our atmosphere, so make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Most likely this weekend if the anticipated wet weather should arrive next week. Or mid-week if the rain isn't that bad...
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Storms are the lifeblood of surfing. And consistent surf is the holy grail; kind of like wave pools being our nuclear fusion breakthrough. Kind of. Anyway, certain parts of the world get more consistent surf than others, and some hemispheres are stormier than others. At least that's the findings from the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences). Here's what they had to say:
Researchers say they now know why the Southern Hemisphere is so much stormier than its northern counterpart, adding their discovery could help explain future climate change projections.
A study in the journal PNAS focuses on scientists’ use of satellite data to build a climate model that factored in topographic and ocean circulation data. The researchers studied what happened to the model’s weather patterns when those variables were adjusted.
When the scientists removed topography like mountains from the model, the Northern Hemisphere got stormier, decreasing its difference in storminess compared with the Southern Hemisphere by about half. Ocean circulation mattered, too: When it was removed from the model, it also halved the difference between hemispheres.
The study also offers an explanation for the increase in Southern storminess since the beginning of satellite observations in the 1980s.
Researchers say they now know why the Southern Hemisphere is so much stormier than its northern counterpart, adding their discovery could help explain future climate change projections.
A study in the journal PNAS focuses on scientists’ use of satellite data to build a climate model that factored in topographic and ocean circulation data. The researchers studied what happened to the model’s weather patterns when those variables were adjusted.
When the scientists removed topography like mountains from the model, the Northern Hemisphere got stormier, decreasing its difference in storminess compared with the Southern Hemisphere by about half. Ocean circulation mattered, too: When it was removed from the model, it also halved the difference between hemispheres.
The study also offers an explanation for the increase in Southern storminess since the beginning of satellite observations in the 1980s.
As carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, so does sea ice loss and sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. This effect cancels out changes in northern oceans, the researchers write. Meanwhile, the ocean currents that drive storms don’t change in the Southern Hemisphere because its sea ice isn’t melting at the same rate as CO2 levels rise. This helps drive the resulting imbalance between storminess in the North and South.
Overall, the researchers found that the Southern Hemisphere is 24 percent stormier than the Northern Hemisphere on average. In a news release, study author Tiffany Shaw, a climate scientist at the University of Chicago, says understanding the difference in hemispheres will help researchers as human-caused climate change speeds up.
“By laying this foundation of understanding, we increase confidence in climate change projections and thereby help society better prepare for the impacts of climate change,” she says. Researchers predict that as climate change continues worldwide, extreme weather events will increase as well.
So there you have it: If you're looking for more storms and more surf, head to Indo, Australia, or Peru. Sorry Cali, France, and the Outer Banks; better luck next time.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Pop Quiz! Today's Pic of the Week is...
- Baja California
- Morocco
- Italy maybe...
- Or Swami's before they put sprinklers on the bluff
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Jolly
Spoiler Alert: I'm Santa
Staying At The Island Of Misfit Toys Surf Camp With Charlie In The Box
Michael W. Glenn
Jolly
Spoiler Alert: I'm Santa
Staying At The Island Of Misfit Toys Surf Camp With Charlie In The Box
